NFL to test out two potential rule changes in Pro Bowl

[Myles]

4th and 15 only has a 16% success rate in the NFL.

That's a bit deceiving. It's using 3rd and 15 not 4th and 15. That includes when teams are up big and just running the ball as a safe play happens.
It includes when you are deep in your own territory and you don't risk a long throw on 3rd and 15.
If KC has a 4th and 15, the odds would be pretty good of them converting it.

I'm also against this rule because it favors certain offenses over others. If you are mainly a running team, your odds of converting are much lower than a pass first team. Why implement a rule that caters to passing teams?

 

[eaglesnut]

With 4th and 15 there are some teams that are going to be way better equipped to convert that than others and it heavily favors teams that are passing teams than teams that feature the run.

It heavily favors QBs that are incredible 3rd down converters like Carson Wentz.

But I still don't like it and most coaches are too dumb to use it properly.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Taking away kickoff is just going too far, Rodger and his cronies in the competition committee are spitting on that game... kickoff thing bothers me, because it's clear the NFL wants to take away one of the most exciting play's in the game... As it sits now we don't see them that often, but it's still an exciting play... Team has the option for now, but soon enough they'll strip that away and say bye bye to kickoffs.... We're changing this once great game way too much, it's just sad...

 

[Sparhawk]

I totally disagree. You are talking all 4th and 15 plays? including ones from your own goal line or immediately following a sack with the clock running down. I'd guess historically most 4th and 15 plays are run under a little bit of chaos and a lot of them are "Hail Mary's". This is totally different. Teams will have all off season to practice this particular 4th and 15 play and will have done so dozens and dozens of times before doing it for real. It will also be in a very controlled environment - after a timeout and with plenty of time to set up and run the play and get whatever players you want to on the field. Plus with the new rule onside kicks were almost impossible to recover so that part of your stat is outdated and irrelevant because they aren't going back to the way it was due in part to injury concerns

They have all the data regarding down, distance, and field placement.

All they have to do is match the chance of a successful onside kick (when opposing team knows it is coming) to the same percentage chance of success on a 4th and X play in a similar location. If X is 10, 15, 20 yards, so be it. Just has to have the same chance of being successful as an onside kick.

Onside kick success dropped from 21 percent to 6 percent after new rule

If the chance of a successful onside kick is 6%, then just extrapolate the distance that would give you the same success rate.

Calculating the Probability of Converting on 4th Down

This is an older article, but if you look at the graph in Part II, a 6% success rate is roughly around 23-27 yards.
4th and 25 sounds pretty good to me, but I wouldn't have a problem with 4th and 20, just to make things interesting.

 

[Sparhawk]

That's a bit deceiving. It's using 3rd and 15 not 4th and 15. That includes when teams are up big and just running the ball as a safe play happens.
It includes when you are deep in your own territory and you don't risk a long throw on 3rd and 15.
If KC has a 4th and 15, the odds would be pretty good of them converting it.

I'm also against this rule because it favors certain offenses over others. If you are mainly a running team, your odds of converting are much lower than a pass first team. Why implement a rule that caters to passing teams?

What will the running team do when they recover an onside kick and still have to go 50+ yards to score a TD in :30 seconds????

 

[shopson67]

Why does the NFL need an achievable onsides kick? Teams need to wake up sooner and compete harder earlier in the game, not rely on a 4th quarter comeback based on fluke plays. The kickoff was changed for player safety, and unless they want to change some of those rules back, they don't need to make up some ridiculous scenario to make up for the tougher onsides kick.

4 and 15 at the 25 has zero to do with the flow of the game and has no place. This is almost as idiotic as the college overtime system. Play the damn game as it was intended.

Oh, and by the way, GET OFF MY LAWN!

 

[Fountain City Blues]

once it switches things up on the saints they were petition trump

Bernie Sanders*

 

[Cedrique]

I can't believe they are making a mockery of the Pro Bowl like this

 

[Myles]

What will the running team do when they recover an onside kick and still have to go 50+ yards to score a TD in :30 seconds????

They will have several downs to do it, not just 1.

 

[BusSport]

Plus with the new rule onside kicks were almost impossible to recover so that part of your stat is outdated and irrelevant because they aren't going back to the way it was due in part to injury concerns

The 21% stat is not outdated and irrelevant, because it was specifically for the old onside kick rules, before the 2018 rules that decreased the rate to 6%.

 

[Mofo]

Can't wait.

 

[tabascojet]

4th and 15 only has a 16% success rate in the NFL.

Before the 2018 rules changes that made onside kicks harder, onside kicks had a 21% success rate.

4th and 15 is more difficult than historical (pre-2018) onside kicks.

Failed onside kicks still advance the ball...failed 4th and 15s do not

 

[Center Ice]

NFL to test out two potential rule changes in Pro Bowl


The NFL will once again use the Pro Bowl as a testing ground for potential rule changes.

The league's officiating office announced two changes that it will be experimenting with in Sunday's all-star game.

The first change could be a potentially systemic one.

After a successful field goal or extra point try attempt, the scoring team will have options with no kickoff.

The scoring team, Team A, will have the following options:

1. Team A may elect to give Team B the ball at Team B's 25-yard line, beginning a new series of downs with a first-and-10.

2. Team A may elect to take the ball at its own 25-yard line for a fourth-and-15 play. If Team A is successful in making a first down, Team A will maintain possession and a new series of downs will continue as normal. If Team A is unsuccessful in making a first down, the result will be a turnover on downs and Team B will take possession at the dead-ball spot.

This rule tweak is the latest attempt to minimize kickoffs, which are among the most dangerous plays in football. The biggest challenge in curtailing kickoffs has always been the threat of getting rid of onside kick options, which would hinder a team's chance of retaining possession in a comeback attempt.

Allowing a team to try to retain possession, but with the threat of failure setting up their opponents in potential scoring range, would represent a massive rule change if adopted in regular-season play.

The second rule change for the Pro Bowl pertains to false starts by a flexed wide receiver:

It is not a false start if a flexed, eligible receiver in a two-point stance who flinches or picks up one foot, as long as his other foot remains partially on the ground and he resets for one second prior to the snap. A receiver who fits this exception is not considered to be "in motion" for the purposes of the Illegal Shift rules.

It is a false start if all 11 offensive players have been set for at least one full second and any flexed, eligible receiver breaks his stance by picking up both feet.

All notes on the rule tweaks for the Pro Bowl can be viewed on the NFL's operations page.

The 2020 NFL Pro Bowl will take place Sunday, Jan. 26, at 3 p.m. ET in Orlando, airing on ESPN.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

My suggested change is simple and complete: Cancel it altogether.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Can't wait.

I still have this game. It still sucks - the figures never do what you want them to do, but it's a classic nonetheless. The one I no longer have and really miss is the old photo-electric football game. The old version, the one with the light bulb underneath to illuminate the field when laying the defense/offense cards down.

 

[Mofo]

I still have this game. It still sucks - the figures never do what you want them to do, but it's a classic nonetheless. The one I no longer have and really miss is the old photo-electric football game. The old version, the one with the light bulb underneath to illuminate the field when laying the defense/offense cards down.

I "played" one once as a kid. You spend a minute or two setting up the formations, and then they go berserk into a corner or something. I preferred Super Chexx.

 

[LambeauLegs]

I agree. 4th and 15 is going to be converted at a pretty high percentage. I don't like it.

A lot higher than trying to get an onside kick. It is damn hard to get one of those now days

 

[Shanemansj13]

It shouldn't be, and penalizing it would stop it, for the most part (after some time). The players whining to the refs after every play is the definition of "unsportsmanlike".

Along the same lines, I'd like to see soccer associations assess post-game yellow & red cards for the flopping bullshit that happens in every game.

No it wouldn't stop it, it would just make the NFL more unwatchable. We already see a flag every other down, one peep out of a player and another flag. Horrible idea that will never happen. Part of sports and competitiveness is trash talk, that's how it's been for decades. They are trying to change too much, this would be a disaster

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Seattle's kick return team sucked ass and it put Lockett and risk of injury. I'd be down, LOL.

In all seriousness though, pretty lame. The onside vs. 4th and 15 thing is an interesting concept... it'd be cool if teams could CHOOSE either, but revert the onside kick rules to guys being able to run prior.

 

[Montalban]

Taking away the kick return would be taking something away from the game. The onside kick thing doesn't bother me.