NFC West

[threelittleturds]

No, not at all. The sample I used serves to illustrate the overarching point which is that the 54% average is made up of those who hit 100% (Rodgers) and those who hit 0% (Newton). Thus, to make a blanket statement that only 54% of 300+ YPG performances lead to victories is misleading.

I'd be interested in what the league-wide loss margin is for QBs who throw for 300 yards and still lose. I just flipped through Rodgers' game logs and in the 7 or 8 games he threw for 300 and they lost, it was a TD once and then the rest were all 1-3 points. Looking at Netwon, they lost by 7 or less each time too. I decided to look at Rivers too, since he is another 300 yard bomber and out of the roughly 10 games the Chargers have lost when he threw 300 yards they were all under 7 points too except for one game against the Patriots where they lost by 14. BTW, for laughs I looked at Alex Smith, and in the two games he hit 300 they lost, but by a FG each time.

A loss is a loss, but I guess it is better to at least be in the game instead of getting blown out by 21+ points because your QB struggles to throw it for 150 yards. The loss is always a punch in the gut, but at least you feel better about your team's chances next week after a close loss instead of wondering if they'll ever win again after getting blown out 0-41 with a QB who just threw for 70 yards.

 

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En guarde: Seahawks like the look of rookie OLs Rishaw Johnson, J.R. Sweezy | Seahawks Blog | The Seattle Times

 

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Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks, NFL Football - CBSSports.com News, Rumors, Scores, Stats, Fantasy

 

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Seattle Seahawks defense prepared to play physical - NFL.com

 

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Pete Carroll: Antonio Bryant 'not in very good shape' - NFL.com

 

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NFC West training camp battles - NFC West Blog - ESPN

NFC West training camp battles
July, 2, 2012 2:00PM ET
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

An early look at the biggest training camp position battles:

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Quarterback: Kevin Kolb versus John Skelton.

The Cardinals have grown accustomed to quarterback competitions. This one has no clear leader heading toward training camp.

The pressure is squarely on Kolb to justify the Cardinals' investment in him. He's had time to get healthy and learn the offense. Kolb should be more confident and relaxed as a result. But he has yet to take charge of the team and command the respect that only comes through performance. He'll have an extended opportunity this summer thanks to an exhibition schedule featuring five games, one more than usual.

Kolb now has 16 career starts. Skelton has 11. Neither has been consistent, but the team won more frequently with Skelton last season.

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Left guard: Rokevious Watkins versus Bryan Mattison.

The Rams are counting on offensive line coach Paul Boudreau to coach up the position at right tackle and left guard in particular.

Watkins is a rookie fifth-round choice with college experience at both guard and both tackle spots. He's listed at 338 pounds and has weighed considerably more, but the scouting reports question his strength. Mattison started four games for the Rams last season after two seasons in Baltimore as a backup. I've wondered whether Quinn Ojinnaka might project as the starter here, but he's more apt to play tackle. Barry Richardson could be a consideration, as well.

Whatever the case, the Rams will likely be counting on an inexperienced left guard to help protect Sam Bradford and clear running lanes for Steven Jackson. It's important someone rises to the occasion.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Nickel corner: Chris Culliver versus Perrish Cox.

The 49ers easily could have handed the job to Culliver after the 2011 third-round choice played better than 40 percent of the defensive snaps last season. Adding Cox creates competition and improves depth at a position that has become increasingly important as offenses more use additional wide receivers.

Cox started nine games for Denver in 2010 as a rookie fifth-round pick from Oklahoma State. He missed last season amid sexual-assault accusations, then signed with the 49ers following his acquittal this offseason. Cox played for 49ers secondary coach Ed Donatell in Denver, so the 49ers should have a good idea what he can offer.

Culliver seemed to fade some late in the season, no surprise for a rookie making a significant jump without the benefit of a regular offseason. He figures into the 49ers' plans no matter what, but will Cox siphon off some of his playing time?

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Quarterback: Tarvaris Jackson versus Matt Flynn versus Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks face a dilemma. Flynn, Wilson and Josh Portis are the quarterbacks they would ideally keep for the long term, but Jackson is the only one with meaningful experience. Jackson is the only one they know for sure they could trust to keep the team competitive right now.

Flynn and Wilson will earn roster spots. Jackson could win one, too. He could even start, but so could Flynn or Wilson. Wilson made a spectacular first impression during organized team activities and minicamp practices. His natural leadership ability and drive showed up repeatedly in how he commanded the huddle and the way he kept pressing coaches for additional information on the offense.

While it's natural to assume Flynn will emerge as the starter based on his salary and Wilson's inexperience, the Seahawks' excitement for Wilson has been palpable at every turn. This should be a fascinating battle once training camp begins.

 

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Latest on Seahawks' QB race
5:11PM ET
Seattle Seahawks

To review, the three candidates to start at quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks include:

* Tarvaris Jackson, the incumbent who was so underwhelming last year that Seattle signed one passer in free agency and drafted another;

* Matt Flynn, the free agent, whose performance in minicamp failed to cement the starting job;

* and third-round rookie Russell Wilson, who would be the shortest starter in the league. Only two players shorter than 6 feet tall have thrown at least 100 passes this century: Doug Flutie and Seneca Wallace.

ESPN.com NFC West blogger Mike Sando says that despite his diminutive size, Wilson has been the most impressive so far:

- Vince Verhei​

Mike Sando
Fun times in the northwest

"While it's natural to assume Flynn will emerge as the starter based on his salary and Wilson's inexperience, the Seahawks' excitement for Wilson has been palpable at every turn. This should be a fascinating battle once training camp begins."

 

[Bemular]

I'd be interested in what the league-wide loss margin is for QBs who throw for 300 yards and still lose. I just flipped through Rodgers' game logs and in the 7 or 8 games he threw for 300 and they lost, it was a TD once and then the rest were all 1-3 points. Looking at Netwon, they lost by 7 or less each time too. I decided to look at Rivers too, since he is another 300 yard bomber and out of the roughly 10 games the Chargers have lost when he threw 300 yards they were all under 7 points too except for one game against the Patriots where they lost by 14. BTW, for laughs I looked at Alex Smith, and in the two games he hit 300 they lost, but by a FG each time.

A loss is a loss, but I guess it is better to at least be in the game instead of getting blown out by 21+ points because your QB struggles to throw it for 150 yards. The loss is always a punch in the gut, but at least you feel better about your team's chances next week after a close loss instead of wondering if they'll ever win again after getting blown out 0-41 with a QB who just threw for 70 yards.

I like this and I would agree this statistic is probably worth the time to mine out a handful of the dozens of corollary's in an attempt to discover some possible causal relationships between 300+ yard games and winning; of which, I am certain on some molecular level a relationship exists.

 

[mem49er]

I am certain on some molecular level a relationship exists.

It's all tied to the Higgs boson.

 

[Bemular]

It's all tied to the Higgs Boson.

LOL!! Nice one, Mem! This shit is about to get real real, real fast.

 

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History says WR Floyd won't start
11:03AM ET
Michael Floyd | Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals used the 13th overall pick to select Michael Floyd in this year's draft. So that means he'll slide right in as the No. 2 starting wide receiver across from Larry Fitzgerald, right? Well, Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com is among the pundits who thinks that will not be the case.

"Will Floyd be a part of the offense? Of course. At least he should. But start? I don't think so. Not from Day One," Urban said.

Part of his reasoning has to do with how coach Ken Whisenhunt has handled the Cardinals' No. 1 picks in the past.

"Bottom line, he prefers to ease his top picks into the lineup, and earn their way," Urban noted.

You can follow the above link to see the specifics of when exactly each of their top picks made his first start, but the gist is that the only No. 1s to start right away arguably did so only due to a lack of competition or injuries that opened up a spot.

Expect Floyd's role to be limited early on, but it should increase quickly if he proves on the field that he's up to the challenge.

- Tom Carpenter​

 

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LT Saffold ready for camp
10:38AM ET
Rodger Saffold | Rams

St. Louis Rams left tackle Rodger Saffold tore a pectoral muscle while lifting weights in November and missed the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair the damage. He also missed all OTAs and minicamp this offseason while recovering, but his rehab is now complete, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Kathleen Nelson.

"He's doing great with his rehab. He's pretty much cleared to play," head trainer Reggie Scott said. "He's returned to the normal standards, so we know when we have those standards it's time to return to play. At training camp, we'll still kind of phase him in to get him up to speed. Then, he'll be ready to go."

Scott added that Saffold's conditioning has returned to where it was prior to the injury. Regardless, Saffold is staying in St. Louis until training camp gets underway so he can be in the best shape possible when he finally gets turned loose on the field.

- Tom Carpenter​

 

[MHSL82]

49ers' Alex Smith: 'I got carried away' talking about Cam Newton - San Jose Mercury News

49ers quarterback Alex Smith was asked during a conference call Thursday morning about his controversial comments this spring about Carolina Panthers' quarterback Cam Newton.

Smith had referenced Newton's gaudy numbers not meshing with Carolina's 6-10 record. On Thursday, Smith reiterated his belief there is no correlation between passing yards and victories, although he did note that "obviously I got carried away there" by citing Newton's Panthers as an example.

"I was going after more of the passing-yards statistic and I don't really believe there's a great correlation to winning in the NFL," Smith added. " I don't. I don't buy it. If you're looking for a statistic that has a better correlation to winning, it's probably yards-per-attempt."

In helping the 49ers to a 13-3 record and the NFC West title last year, Smith set career highs with 3,144 yards passing and a 61.4 completion percentage.

"For me it's about winning games," Smith added. "I said the same thing last year when we played the Saints in the playoff. Yeah that offense is pretty prolific and threw for 5,000 yards. For me, I'm trying to score more points than the other team. I don't really care how we do it."

Smith said coach Jim Harbaugh has made the priorities clear.

"That's our philosophy: We've got a lot of ways to get it done. I don't really care how many yards I throw for, as long as we score more points than the guys we're playing."

 

[MHSL82]

"I was going after more of the passing-yards statistic and I don't really believe there's a great correlation to winning in the NFL," Smith added. " I don't. I don't buy it. If you're looking for a statistic that has a better correlation to winning, it's probably yards-per-attempt."

I agree with his yards per attempt comment in a limited manner. I don't know the corelation he's referring to in regards to winning. But if we have an offense that has a run/pass ratio as we did, if he increased the yards-per-attempt (along with the third down and red zone conversions he's referred to before) - the yards will take care of themselves. I would also add in avoiding sacks and being a bit more risky on what throws to make, but nothing that totally alters our game for the sake of yards. His mechanics may help him become more accurate and that will help the yards per attempt, which of course, if the same number of attempts, will increase the yards and convert more third downs.

Having said that, if you find someone who has a lot of yards because he converted third downs, red zone conversions, and had a high yards per attempt, there will be a correlation to winning. If you find a QB who throws a lot of risky throws with a lot of yards in catchup and a bad defense, you won't. Brett Favre had a better defense than the Panthers and his yards often were aggressive not catchup.

Fix the accuracy (mechanics, completion percentage, and YPA), the third downs, and red zone issues, the yards won't matter. We won't have to take too many risky throws to get more yards and we won't be playing catchup very often if those things are improved. I know it's a "no duh!" statement, but people keep asking him about yards per game!

 

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Lance Kendricks, St. Louis Rams, NFL Football - CBSSports.com News, Rumors, Scores, Stats, Fantasy

 

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Contract squabble for Jenkins, Rams
7:53AM ET
Janoris Jenkins | Rams

The St. Louis Rams are having a difficult time locking up second-round pick Janoris Jenkins to a contract, partially because of a pre-draft verbal agreement that is not allowed under the collective bargaining agreement, according to Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports.

"During April's NFL draft, Fisher made Jenkins' agent, Malik Shareef, promise that Jenkins would hire a business manager to help Jenkins navigate his personal issues, which include fathering four children with three women. There is a fourth woman who is claiming she has another child with Jenkins," Cole said.

"However, according to last year's CBA, the pre-draft understanding between the Rams and Jenkins' camp is not allowed and is 'unheard of,' according to an NFLPA source."

The NFL and NFLPA have contacted the Rams about this issue. Although a Rams source said last week that, "We know there can't be any pre-conditions to the contract," Fisher reportedly "remains insistent that his recommended adviser [Lou Taylor of Tri Star Sports & Entertainment Group] manages Jenkins' finances."

Both sides hope they can work out the matter without a legal battle, but clearly Jenkins is getting off to an awkward start to his NFL career. Even if they are able to iron this matter out and get him signed before camp, it will be interesting to see whether there is any bad blood accumulated between Fisher and Jenkins, and whether that affects their relationship and performance in 2012.

- Tom Carpenter​

 

[MHSL82]

Posting this for the Cold Hard Football Facts aspects, not to rehash the naming-an-opposing-QB aspect.

Alex Smith sacks Cam Newton, conventional wisdom

The weight of the Cold, Hard Football Facts in Smith’s defense is quite overwhelming. In fact, here is a great anecdote to illustrate the point:

•The last quarterback to lead the NFL in passing YPA and win a championship was Ben Roethlisberger in 2005.
•Before Big Ben the QBs to lead the NFL in passing YPA and win championships were Kurt Warner in 1999; Steve Young in 1994; Joe Montana in 1989; Terry Bradshaw in 1978; Ken Stabler in 1976; Roger Staubach in 1971; and Bart Starr in 1966 and 1967.
•The last quarterback to lead the league in passing yards and win a championship was Johnny Unitas way back in 1959. That was more than a half century ago, for those of you keeping score at home.
Notice a trend? Quarterbacks who lead the league in passing effectiveness routinely win championships. Quarterbacks who lead the league in passing yards win headlines and little else.

“Correlation to Victory” proves in no uncertain terms that Smith was correct about the importance of passing YPA. Let’s look at the numbers from the 2011 season:

•Teams that passed for a higher average per attempt when 182-74 (.711)
•Teams that passed for more yards went 129-127 (.504)
It was actually a down year for the performance of both indicators. But the relative performance of those numbers is fairly consistent with longer term trends. Here’s how teams have performed over the past five seasons (2007-11):

•Teams that passed for a higher average per attempt when 942-336 (.737)
•Teams that passed for more yards went 694-582 (.544)
Hell, teams that call heads during the opening coin flip probably win as often as teams that pass for more yards.

Smith singled out Newton when highlighting the futility of big-volume passing performances: “Newton threw for a lot of 300-yard games,” said Smith. “That’s great. You’re not winning, though.”

Smith could not have been more accurate. Newton topped 300 yards passing three times in 2011, all of those games in the first four weeks of the season. The Panthers lost all three games:

•Newton passed for 422 yards in his Week 1 debut at Arizona. The Panthers lost, 28-21.
•Newton passed for 432 yards in Week 2 against Green Bay. The Panthers lost, 30-23.
•Newton passed for 374 yards in Week 4 at Chicago. The Panthers lost, 34-29.
In fact, Carolina lost all six of Newton’s most prolific passing efforts in 2011. Meanwhile, he passed for 208 yards or less in five of six Carolina victories. His most prolific effort in a winning performance was 256 yards in a 33-20 victory over the Redskins.

Newton is a prolific passer and a human highlight reel with all the promise in the world in front of him. But he was also the poster child in 2011 of the general meaninglessness of big-volume passing days: he lost when he passed for a lot of yards; he won when he did not.

We noted above that Smith was right, that passing YPA does have a very high “Correlation to Victory,” as we call it. This correlation was especially high for the 49ers and Panthers.

•The 49ers lost three games in 2011; they lost the battle of passing YPA in all three games.
•The Panthers lost 10 games in 2011; they lost the battle of passing YPA in nine of those 10 games (the only exception for either team was Carolina’s loss to Chicago in Week 4, when Carolina outgained Chicago through the air 8.1 to 6.0).
The performance of both the 49ers and Panthers in 2011, and most teams throughout history, proves that Smith was 100 percent accurate in his analysis: passing effectiveness trumps passing volume in almost every instance.

They also pointed out that it was not that smart to name a player and that Cam Newton averaged more YPA than Smith, just not in those 300 yard games and not in the losses. Defenses made the big difference, not the total yards. YPA helped (or at least had a better positive corelation).

 

[deep9er]

Posting this for the Cold Hard Football Facts aspects, not to rehash the naming-an-opposing-QB aspect.

Alex Smith sacks Cam Newton, conventional wisdom









They also pointed out that it was not that smart to name a player and that Cam Newton averaged more YPA than Smith, just not in those 300 yard games and not in the losses. Defenses made the big difference, not the total yards. YPA helped (or at least had a better positive corelation).

good! this is exactly what i said from the get go, the only problem was actually naming Cam Newton.

 

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Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams, NFL Football - CBSSports.com News, Rumors, Scores, Stats, Fantasy

 

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Matt Flynn has what it takes to start for Seahawks - NFL.com