New Year's Six Predictions: Week 9(According to SportsHoopla Poll)

[Across The Field]

@Across The Field

Bet?

I think Michigan gives up less total points and less total yardage than Ohio St. does with 2016 common opponents.

Is that just Wisconsin and MSU?

 

[ericd7633]

Yup. BTW, speaking of those efficiency rankings, OSU held the #1 offense in the nation this year to 17 points and that was on the road. That's significantly more impressive than anything michigan has done thusfar.

Yes OSU played a hell of a game against Oklahoma, but they also played other games.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Is that just Wisconsin and MSU?

Rutgers, Penn St., Wisconsin, Michigan St., Indiana, Maryland

 

[ericd7633]

Ha, no you haven't. I asked you to last week and you said something like "I understand them. If you can't go figure them out that's your problem".

As I said, I'll wait until michigan has faced a real offense before I go crowning them like you are. If they hold OSU to something like 10 points this year, I'll be on board with you. Then again, if our offense continues to play as it has been, that won't be a tall order.

Yes, I clearly have, you just don't remember, because we go through this shit every week.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

EricD has got to have a KenPom subscription. I like him again.

 

[ericd7633]

EricD has got to have a KenPom subscription. I like him again.

I love the KenPom stuff. That's a great tool to use for how you value a team and to project ahead. I also love the RPI because that values just strictly resume. I'm a numbers guy.

 

[Eco]

Why are Alabama fans so reluctant to give other teams credit where it is deserved? Michigan is #2 in the country with a pretty average offense. Why is that? It's because the defense is elite. Nothing homerish about that.

I would think that most Bama fans, myself included, are just skeptical since I don't think you guys have played another with a really good offense.

So far, in total offense, you have played Colorado, which ranks 19th nationally, and then no one else inside the top 50. Not to mentioned Colorado lost their starting QB in the game and put up 28 points in Ann Arbor. Sparty's offense is pretty awful and they put up 23 on you.

While in Tuscaloosa,

Alabama has played (top 50 offenses), Western Kentucky (11th, and scored 10 points), Ole Miss (34th, scored 43 on Bama), and Texas A&M (16th, and scored 14 on UA).

That's probably where some of the skepticism is.

In you wanted to know the rankings: Total Offense | FBS Football Statistics - NCAA.com

 

[Across The Field]

Rutgers, Penn St., Wisconsin, Michigan St., Indiana, Maryland

Ugh. That one deserved a facepalm. I meant to say "The B1G East and Wisconsin."

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

I would think that most Bama fans, myself included, are just skeptical since I don't think you guys have played another with a really good offense.

So far, in total offense, you have played Colorado, which ranks 19th nationally, and then no one else inside the top 50. Not to mentioned Colorado lost their starting QB in the game and put up 28 points in Ann Arbor. Sparty's offense is pretty awful and they put up 23 on you.

While in Tuscaloosa,

Alabama has played (top 50 offenses), Western Kentucky (11th, and scored 10 points), Ole Miss (34th, scored 43 on Bama), and Texas A&M (16th, and scored 14 on UA).

That's probably where some of the skepticism is.

In you wanted to know the rankings: Total Offense | FBS Football Statistics - NCAA.com

This has all been covered in the past few pages.

 

[Across The Field]

Yes, I clearly have, you just don't remember, because we go through this shit every week.

Right. By the way, how did that poll you posted wind up?

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Ugh. That one deserved a facepalm. I meant to say "The B1G East and Wisconsin."

1 month avatar bet?

 

[Across The Field]

I would think that most Bama fans, myself included, are just skeptical since I don't think you guys have played another with a really good offense.

So far, in total offense, you have played Colorado, which ranks 19th nationally, and then no one else inside the top 50. Not to mentioned Colorado lost their starting QB in the game and put up 28 points in Ann Arbor. Sparty's offense is pretty awful and they put up 23 on you.

While in Tuscaloosa,

Alabama has played (top 50 offenses), Western Kentucky (11th, and scored 10 points), Ole Miss (34th, scored 43 on Bama), and Texas A&M (16th, and scored 14 on UA).

That's probably where some of the skepticism is.

In you wanted to know the rankings: Total Offense | FBS Football Statistics - NCAA.com

The offense only put up 21. @hailtoyourvictor will rip your shit apart if you don't correct yourself.

 

[Across The Field]

1 month avatar bet?

Hell no. That's hardly fair. You got to face the only 2 ranked common opponents we have at home while we had to go on the road at night to face them. If you guys didn't beat us in those metrics I would be absolutely shocked.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Hell no. That's hardly fair. You got to face the only 2 ranked common opponents we have at home while we had to go on the road at night to face them. If you guys didn't beat us in those metrics I would be absolutely shocked.

Jesus Christ.

You won't go by overall basic stats (despite citing them for other teams) because Michigan doesn't play good enough offenses.
You won't go by advanced and schedule adjusted metrics because you don't understand them.
You won't go by common opponents because of who had which teams at home.



This is ridiculous.

 

[Across The Field]

Jesus Christ.

You won't go by overall basic stats (despite citing them for other teams) because Michigan doesn't play good enough offenses.
You won't go by advanced and schedule adjusted metrics because you don't understand them.
You won't go by common opponents because of who had which teams at home.



This is ridiculous.

So in your mind, there's no difference between playing at home or playing on the road at night in two of the most notoriously hostile environments in college football?

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

FWIW, Michigan and Ohio St. have three common opponents so far (Rutgers, Penn St., Wisconsin).

Michigan's defense has allowed 389 total yards and 17 points
Ohio St.'s defense has allowed 842 total yards and 40 points



But I get it. You guys had to play at night so that makes this all completely irrelevant.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

So in your mind, there's no difference between playing at home or playing on the road at night in two of the most notoriously hostile environments in college football?

Playing at home is generally worth about 3.5 to 4 points per Vegas odds.

I don't think that playing at night vs playing during the day is a valid excuse for why a defense struggles.
Your defense should be able to play during the day or at night.

 

[DHoey]

Of course you "forgot". Convenient amnesia.


The fact is that my statement was I don't see Michigan giving up 30+ points this season as long as their defense is healthy.

Colorado scored 21 points on our defense that was missing 3 starters.... one being an All-American level CB in Jourdan Lewis.


If Michigan loses 3 starters, I fully expect a really good offense to be able to put up 30 on us. Hence the "healthy" stipulation.

Didn't Colorado lose their Starting QB halfway through that game? Didn't their replacement go something like 0-8 on passing after?

 

[Across The Field]

Playing at home is generally worth about 3.5 to 4 points per Vegas odds.

I don't think that playing at night vs playing during the day is a valid excuse for why a defense struggles.
Your defense should be able to play during the day or at night.

What do Vegas odds have to do with anything?

If you want to see how different it is to play on the road at night vs. at home, just look at the last 5 years in the OSU-PSU series:

2012: 12-0 OSU wins 35-23 over 8-4 PSU in Happy Valley
2013: 12-2 OSU wins 63-14 at home over 7-5 Penn State
2014: 14-1 National Champ OSU wins 31-24 in OT over 7-6 Penn State in Happy Valley
2015: 12-1 OSU wins 38-10 over 7-6 Penn State at home
2016: You know what happened here

One OSU lineman said this year that his facemask was rattling, it was so loud during the whiteout. That makes an enormous difference on how both sides play. I'd have no problem saying OSU would've won by 3-4 TDs if we got to play PSU at home. It's just how the series has gone.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Didn't Colorado lose their Starting QB halfway through that game? Didn't their replacement go something like 0-8 on passing after?

Michigan was missing an All-American level CB (seen here) Jourdan Lewis.


Michigan was missing starting DE Taco Charlton.

NFL Draft Prospects

Michigan was missing starting DT Bryan Mone.




But I'm sure you knew that already, so why don't this things matter to you?