My 6th annual CFB preview thread (Part 1)

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Navy

Preview segment: The Navy Midshipmen

Last season: It... was... crap! For a proud military program like Navy, 2018 was the crappiest season they've went through since 2002. They had to travel nearly 26,500 miles to finish 3-10 with another loss to Army AND Air Force thrown in.

Bad news: Navy returns only 6 total starters from the 2018 team, so depth is not good (especially on the all-important O-line). The defense loses it's top 3 tacklers.

Good news: Coach Ken is trying to restore Malcolm Perry's mojo on offense by tailoring the offense to suit his talents. Oh, and the offense has a good Plan B: Slotback CJ Williams.

Key games:
9/14 vs. East Carolina (East Carolina is looking for a rebound season as well, so this will be a important AAC opener for both teams.)
10/5 vs. Air Force (After Malcolm Perry got neutralized by the Falcons 35-7, the coaching staff panicked and returned Perry to his old position of slotback so that they can try a new quarterback. Navy was never the same after that.)
10/26 vs. Tulane (Last year, Tulane edged out the Midshipmen 29-28 to clinch a bowl berth. This year, both teams will need to win this to help their bowl chances.)
12/14 vs. Army [in Philadelphia] (No joke: Athlon Sports, in their preseason magazine, was talking about Army potentially going for a "New Year's Six" bowl. Navy must fix this little problem. NOW!)

Bottom line: This season will strictly be about getting Navy back in a bowl and getting back their positive momentum. If Navy's defense improves enough that they're defeating an Air Force or an Memphis again, that would be a great start.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Southern Methodist

Preview segment: The SMU Mustangs

Last season: For a time, it was looking really good for Southern Methodist last year; after an 0-3 start the Mustangs would recover to get to 5-5 (with another win over Houston thrown in) and had control of the AAC West division entering their Senior Day game against Memphis.
Sadly, Memphis would beat them 28-18. And then SMU got upset against Tulsa 28-21, so they didn't go bowling in Sonny Dykes's 1st year in Dallas. But hey, at least the buy-in from the players will be bigger for Sonny's 2nd year.

Good news: Hopes are high that former Texas QB Shane Buechele will improve the SMU offense, much like their WR's will. The defense has great depth on the D-line...

Bad news: ...and the secondary WAS gonna have great depth as well, but Elijan McQueen and Mikial Onu left the program during the winter. However, the O-line may be the biggest problem; it's entire left side has to be replaced.

Key games:
9/7 vs. North Texas (Hey! These two Texas schools has now met every year since 2014.)
9/28 @ USF (Good news: SMU doesn't have to face UCF this year! Bad news: They do have to go to Tampa. You win some, you lose some... am I right?)
10/5 vs. Tulsa (This will be a swing game for SMU's bowl chances, and a chance for them to extract revenge. Don't forget, Tulsa took SMU out of the postseason last year on the final game.)
10/24 @ Houston (Huh... After SMU celebrated their 2018 homecoming by stunning Houston 45-31, I thought that Houston would return the favor and have their 2019 homecoming opponent be the Mustangs. Oh well, this should still be another fun installment in this rivalry.)
11/30 vs. Tulane (This could decide a bowl berth for BOTH of these teams.)

Bottom line: The Mustangs have the talent to move upwards in the AAC; they return 8 starters on defense and are optimistic about their offense. The question is, WILL they move upwards in the AAC? They'll have to overcome a tough road schedule to return to the postseason, but I think they can do it.

 

[amszete]

I’m sorry bro, I had no idea he came aboard. If it makes you feel any better (probably not) we are off to a very slow start recruiting. So that prolly factored in.

WVU and VT both. Its fucking depressing.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Memphis

Preview segment: The Memphis Tigers

Last season: It was a mixed bag for a team that's slowly becoming an AAC powerhouse. The Tigers would ride a late-season 4-game winning streak to another AAC West division title, but defensive problems meant that Memphis would lose their bowl game and BOTH encounters with mighty Central Florida. Now we're all seeing Memphis as (once again) a favorite to win the conference... and rightly so.

Good news: The Tigers' offense ranked 4th in total offense last year (not bad considering they were in a "retooling year"), and most of it returns including Brady White and Damonte Coxie, among-st others. 8 starters return on defense, including a powerful pass rush.

Bad news: The D-line should be fine, but can the secondary make an improvement? And if people like LT Obinna Eze can't step up, the O-line will be a problem with 3 experienced seniors leaving that unit.

2019 X-factor: All of the new coaches- During the offseason, Memphis has lost both of their coordinators and a special teams coach, and now new guys are filling in those important jobs. It won't be a big deal if the Tigers keep it rolling, but will all of this newness create some early issues?

Key games:
8/31 vs. Ole Miss (Well, we'll soon find out, won't we? It would be a HUGE statement-maker for the AAC if Memphis outscores the Rebels [they did that the last time Ole Miss came to visit].)
10/19 vs. Tulane (It was a 3-way time for the West division last year, but Memphis was able to win it because of "more wins against common opponents". On that note, did you know Tulane was tied for the AAC West in 2018?)
11/16 @ Houston (Memphis was also tied with Houston, but beating the Cougars on Senior Day gave the Tigers the division crown. They've now beaten them 3 years in a row.)
11/29 vs. Cincinnati (Both the Bearcats and the Tigers have hard November schedules... and they both end with them facing each other on "Black Friday".)

Bottom line: ...That was harder than I thought it would be. A lot of new faces on the coaching staff might trip things up, but most likely Brady White and the offense will keep Memphis going as an AAC monster. They'll be in the hunt for their first conference title since 2014 (if the defense continues to get better), but they'll have to finally solve the UCF problem to win it all and go to the "New Year's Six".

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

WVU and VT both. Its fucking depressing.

Seriously what has happened to Fuente at Va Tech?

It seemed like he was going to accomplish a lot there, suddenly there was a mass exodus last offseason and while a lot of teams got hit hard by transfers it seemed like Virginia Tech got hit the hardest again

It's odd, there's not much being said about it but it seems like he's lost the locker room somehow

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Tulane

The last preview segment for the AAC: The Tulane Green Wave

Last season: It took a little longer than he expected, but Willie Fritz has Tulane up and running as the Green Wave is off their first bowl victory since 2002. Even better, they tied for the AAC West division title and beat in-state foe UL-Lafayette for that bowl win.

Good news: All but one contributor from last year's awesome D-line is back, and Darius Bradwell and Corey Dauphine make up a scary duo at RB. Justin McMillan had a tremendous spring game to win the starting QB job, and he'll make the Tulane offense that much more dangerous.

Bad news: That is, of course, if Justin stays on his feet; Tulane is replacing 3 proud starters from 2018's O-line. The secondary is also a sticking point, as it's back end is unproven.

Key games:
8/29 vs. FIU (Florida International has big plans for the 2019 season, so this season opener should be a good one.)
9/19 vs. Houston (A tough conference opener for the Green Wave, but they DID beat Houston the last time they hosted the Cougars.)
10/19 @ Memphis (Now HERE'S a tough assignment: Visiting the other team that they tied for the West last year... knowing full well that the Tigers are gonna be angry.)
11/23 vs. UCF (What a Senior Day game we're gonna have here! How much would it mean to the Tulane seniors if they can silence the 2-time defending champs of the AAC?)
11/30 @ SMU (See my SMU preview.)

Bottom line: The arrow's pointing up for this New Orleans school, and now they want to win another division title in 2019. They won't win it, but at least they're confident enough to want it. It all depends on the offensive line; if it gives Justin McMillan and that running game the time to execute, the Green Wave will give Memphis and Houston more headaches. At worst, expect Tulane to vie for back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1979-1980.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Curious how the AAC West shakes out this year, Memphis and Houston are safe bets once again but any of the other 4 teams has the potential to rise up and challenge them

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

American predictions

A little surprise for you all tomorrow: I'll be looking at poor New Mexico State (you know, in case somebody's interested). But first, let's see if there'll be a surprise in the AAC this year:

AAC East:
1. Central Florida (Conference champs, maybe "New Year's Six")
2. Cincinnati
3. South Florida
4. Temple
5. East Carolina
6. Connecticut

AAC West:
1. Memphis
2. Houston
3. Tulane
4. Navy
5. SMU
6. Tulsa

 

[amszete]

Seriously what has happened to Fuente at Va Tech?

It seemed like he was going to accomplish a lot there, suddenly there was a mass exodus last offseason and while a lot of teams got hit hard by transfers it seemed like Virginia Tech got hit the hardest again

It's odd, there's not much being said about it but it seems like he's lost the locker room somehow

Some of that was him cleaning out the bad seeds and those that didn't like it including starters were shown the door. I am ok with it if his plan works. Guess we will find out this season!

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

New Mexico State

Preview segment: The New Mexico State Aggies

Last season: I thought we'd start the Sun Belt with a team that used to be in the Sun Belt not even 2 years ago. And some people thought that in 2018, NMSU would ride the wave of their first bowl appearance since 1960 to at least contend for another one.
They would finish 3-9. All while the defense went to shit. Back to earth for the Aggies.

Good news: At least the offense should produce points; Josh Adkins should be a multi-year starter at QB, and we have a good amount of talent at WR and RB.

Bad news: Defense may be a season-long problem again, especially in the secondary.

Key games:
9/7 @ Alabama (The easiest pick for "Worst mismatch of the year" I've EVER seen in college football history; this will be brutal.)
9/21 @ New Mexico (A must-win for NMSU to get back some form of positive vibes for the program.)
10/5 vs. Liberty (For the 2nd year in a row, Liberty and NMSU has an awkward home-and-home series to play through. But NMSU did beat Liberty last year when they played in Las Cruces.)
11/23 vs. UTEP (Hey! The Aggies actually have a winning streak in this rivalry now.)

Bottom line: It's a shame that NMSU couldn't capitalize on a good schedule from a year ago. Now with a questionable defense and a much harder schedule this season, those games with New Mexico and UTEP stand out as must wins. Lose those encounters, and there's a REAL good chance of ESPN's Ryan McGee putting New Mexico State at #1 on his "Bottom 10" rankings come the end of the year.

 

[Bedlam131]

@ Alabama (The easiest pick for "Worst mismatch of the year" I've EVER seen in college football history; this will be brutal.)

Holy crap. Do the starters for Bama even play past the first quarter?

If I was NMS I would not even put my starters in the game.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Some of that was him cleaning out the bad seeds and those that didn't like it including starters were shown the door. I am ok with it if his plan works. Guess we will find out this season!

Agreed, you can say this for a lot of teams but for Va Tech moreso than others there's a wide range of possibilities for this season. Pretty much anywhere from a 10 win regular season and division title to a 4-8 disaster where you finish just above Georgia Tech is possible

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

New Mexico State

Preview segment: The New Mexico State Aggies

Last season: I thought we'd start the Sun Belt with a team that used to be in the Sun Belt not even 2 years ago. And some people thought that in 2018, NMSU would ride the wave of their first bowl appearance since 1960 to at least contend for another one.
They would finish 3-9. All while the defense went to shit. Back to earth for the Aggies.

Good news: At least the offense should produce points; Josh Adkins should be a multi-year starter at QB, and we have a good amount of talent at WR and RB.

Bad news: Defense may be a season-long problem again, especially in the secondary.

Key games:
9/7 @ Alabama (The easiest pick for "Worst mismatch of the year" I've EVER seen in college football history; this will be brutal.)
9/21 @ New Mexico (A must-win for NMSU to get back some form of positive vibes for the program.)
10/5 vs. Liberty (For the 2nd year in a row, Liberty and NMSU has an awkward home-and-home series to play through. But NMSU did beat Liberty last year when they played in Las Cruces.)
11/23 vs. UTEP (Hey! The Aggies actually have a winning streak in this rivalry now.)

Bottom line: It's a shame that NMSU couldn't capitalize on a good schedule from a year ago. Now with a questionable defense and a much harder schedule this season, those games with New Mexico and UTEP stand out as must wins. Lose those encounters, and there's a REAL good chance of ESPN's Ryan McGee putting New Mexico State at #1 on his "Bottom 10" rankings come the end of the year.

At Washington State in the opener and San Diego State after Alabama too. Such a brutal start, how they recover after starting 0-3 with blowout losses will determine how it goes. They have no hopes for bowl eligibility though, goal is to make strides for next year

 

[amszete]

Agreed, you can say this for a lot of teams but for Va Tech moreso than others there's a wide range of possibilities for this season. Pretty much anywhere from a 10 win regular season and division title to a 4-8 disaster where you finish just above Georgia Tech is possible

Completely agree. BUT with the schedule we have, any less than 8 wins is a bad situation for Fuente.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

What UConn's expected move to the Big East could mean for its biggest programs

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Coastal Carolina

The first preview segment for the Sun Belt Conference: The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Last season: It was a tough way to end the season if you were a Coastal Carolina fan, as the Chanticleers lost their last 4 games to miss out on bowl eligibility. But the fact that Coastal was even IN the bowl picture proves that 2018 was a step forward for this young program.

Good news: CJ Marable is a capable runner, the middle of the defense looks good, and even though they have 2 QB's they can move the ball with either of them.

Bad news: The rest of the defense looks sketchy, as the secondary is all new and DE Jeffrey Gunter transferred to NC State.

Key games:
8/31 vs. Eastern Michigan (A winnable conference opener for Coastal to start things off.)
9/28 @ App. State (A 5-3 start to the season died against the Mountaineers 23-7 in Conway.)
11/2 vs. Troy (Maybe this will be the time that Coastal gets their 1st-ever win against Troy.)
11/7 vs. UL-Lafayette (The Chanticleers started to gain confidence last year when they won at Cajun Field.)

Bottom line: New coach Jamey Chadwell has some experience with this program, and now he's taking over full-time (Joe Moglia retired in January to work for the athletic program here at Coastal Carolina). In 2019, the Chanticleers MIGHT contend for a bowl berth if everything breaks their way, but to become a constant contender they have to get their recruiting machine going.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Louisiana-Lafayette

Preview segment: The UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

Last season: The 7-7 record that the Cajuns got in 2018 looks awkward. But think about what Billy Napier was able to do in his first year at Lafayette! He got the offense going, and even defeated UL-Monroe and Arkansas State to steal the West division crown.

Good news: 7 starters from a strong offense returns, including RB Trey Ragas and WR Ja'Marcus Bradley. The defense has the chance to be better this season with some good linebackers coming back.

Bad news: Let's all hope those linebackers will help the Cajuns do a better job of stopping the run; their run defense was poor in 2018. And of those 7 returning starters on offense, not one of them is a QB.

2019 X-factor: QB Jai'ave Magalei- Magalei is definitely a wild-card (he didn't play football last year), but he had a great performance in spring ball. This would be QUITE the coup for Napier's recruiting staff if he comes in and plays well (or at least push the incumbent Levi Lewis to do better).

Key games:
8/31 vs. Mississippi State [in Atlanta] (Good news for the Cajuns: No more Alabama on the schedule! Bad news: They'll have to deal with Mississippi State again, this time on a neutral field.)
10/9 vs. App. State (On this Wednesday night game, the Cajuns will try their luck against the Sun Belt favorites... who might be 4-0 by this time.)
10/17 @ Arkansas State (Beating the Red Wolves last year 47-43 was what UL-Lafayette needed to take the West division. Now it's time for a contentious rematch on a Thursday night.)
11/23 vs. Troy (Wait... And now the Cajuns must face Troy as well?! ...Then again, they COULD ruin Troy's chances at the Sun Belt title, too.)
11/30 vs. UL-Monroe (That won't be easy to do, as they MAY be looking ahead to their annual encounter with the Warhawks... on Senior Day.)

Bottom line: Napier's rebuilding plan for the Cajuns is ahead of schedule, and the buy-in from the players will be big as they'll look to defend their division title. Much of that, however, will depend on the QB position; if it fails to deliver UL-Lafayette will be settling for just a bowl berth... or maybe not even getting a bowl berth at all.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

South Alabama

Preview segment: The South Alabama Jaguars

Last season: A tough 3-9.

Good news: The D-line has some good pieces, and RB Tra Minter and WR Kawaan Baker makes a good combination on offense. QB Cephus Johnson has a good upside...

Bad news: ...but that's ONLY if his offensive line gets better; last year's unit was crap. And the entire defense still has a lack of speed.

Key games:
9/21 @ UAB (Visiting Nebraska and playing Memphis will be hard, but this blood-feud may be the toughest non-conference game the Jaguars will have. Don't forget, when UAB shut down it's football program temporarily South Alabama scooped up most of their players.)
10/3 vs. Georgia Southern (Don't throw this game away; the Eagles might be beaten up here after trips to LSU and Minnesota.)
11/16 vs. UL-Lafayette (By this time, we'll know how well the Jaguars' new defense is holding up.)

Bottom line: "Stability". That's the key word for Steve Campbell and South Alabama in 2019; they're hoping that their defense will do better and that Cephus Johnson holds up at QB. Unless an upset occurs, you can ignore the Jaguars in 2019 as the rebuilding project continues.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Louisiana-Monroe

Preview segment: The UL-Monroe Warhawks

Last season: It was actually a frustrating year for UL-Monroe in 2018. They were certainly better then they were in recent years, and they were 6-4 entering the tail end of their schedule. All while Caleb Evans and his offense were turning heads.
Then they lost the West division lead against Arkansas State, and arch-rival UL-Lafayette took the West away 31-28, so the Warhawks finished 6-6 while getting snuffed for a bowl.

Bad news: The secondary lost 3 starters from a pretty-bad unit a year ago, and a playmaker has to emerge at RB. Caleb Evans lost his top 4 receivers from a year ago too...

Good news: ...but WR Zachari Jackson has the talent to pick up the slack. The O-line might be the best unit on the whole squad; all 5 starters from last year are back.

2019 X-factor: Kerry Starks and Jaylen Veasley- The D-line that the Warhawks has now is good. It would have been a lot better if these 2 idiots didn't get themselves arrested and suspended. I haven't heard any new news about them, but if they come back to the team it'll really help UL-Monroe out.

Key games:
9/28 vs. South Alabama (This is the always important conference opener, and UL-Monroe beat the Jaguars last year to get that important 6th win.)
10/5 vs. Memphis (It seems that EVERY SINGLE YEAR, the Warhawks has a really hard non-conference schedule. Last year it was trips to Ole Miss and Texas A&M, this year it's trips to Florida State and Iowa State... and this game against "New Year's Six" hopeful Memphis will finish it off.)
11/2 vs. Arkansas State (A must-win for UL-Monroe if they're EVER going to challenge for the West this year.)
11/16 @ Georgia Southern (Yikes. GSU will be pissed about the Warhawks beating them last year. Then again, maybe Monroe will catch the Eagles napping after games against App. State and Troy.)
11/30 @ UL-Lafayette (Losing the "Battle on the Bayou" to the Cajuns last year REALLY had to sting for UL-Monroe because... well, I think I already mentioned why.)

Bottom line: The Caleb Evans train hasn't left the station in Monroe yet, so the Warhawks still has a chance to make a bowl. That defense has to continue to improve, though, and the running game has to get going.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Georgia State

Preview segment: The Georgia State Panthers

Last season: Jeez. Now Georgia State is starting to look like a yo-yo for me. From a bowl win in 2017 to a miserable 2-10 in 2018, and now they no longer have Penny Hart on the team.

Good news: Thankfully for the Panthers, they have a lot of options on offense to compensate for the loss of Penny; we have QB Dan Ellington, depth on the O-line, and 4 solid running backs.

Bad news: The secondary may have experience, but it needs a new approach after getting burned over and over again last year. That goes double for the rest of the defense.

Key games:
9/21 @ Texas State (Georgia State's conference opener, and a winnable one.)
10/5 vs. Arkansas State (The Panthers has 2 weeks to prep for what could be a long shootout with the Red Wolves.)
11/9 @ UL-Monroe (UL-Monroe was the only FBS team the Panthers defeated last year.)
11/30 @ Georgia Southern (Uh-oh. The paradigm in the state is starting to shift to the Eagles again!)

Bottom line: So now Shawn Elliott is back into rebuilding mode here in Atlanta. The offense should be able to move, but in order for Georgia State to catch a whiff of a bowl game the defense has to show some form of improvement.