My 6th annual CFB preview thread (Part 1)

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

So after a rough offseason (and dealing with some family business), I'm back! We can now return to reading about the world of college football, and here is the schedule I've planned for the summer:

Group of Five Conferences (on this thread):​

Week of May 27th: Conference USA (I want to rush to the aid of UTEP, so this conference is going first.)
Week of June 3rd: Mountain West (Nearly every team here is either replacing a QB, or will have no help for their QB. Great!)
Week of June 10th: MAC (Ohio may be a shoo-in to win the East... and lose to whoever the West champ is.)
Week of June 17th: American (Tulane is alive! Oh, and their game with UCF is November 23rd.)
Week of June 24th: Sun Belt (Wait... Texas State now has hope for the future?! That's a development I need to see.)

Power 5 Conferences (on separate threads):​

Week of July 1st: Big 10 (Because I want to get the Michigan preview over and done with as quickly as possible.)
Week of July 8th: PAC-12 (AKA: People freaking out over Justin Herbert for 7 days straight.)
Week of July 15th: SEC (It's Georgia! It's Florida! It's... those jerks from Tuscaloosa! Enough said.)
Week of July 22nd: ACC and Notre Dame (I'm thinking of using the Monty Python line "And now for something completely different" as the tagline for this conference. What do you think?)
Week of July 29th: Big 12 [with extras!] (AKA: Texas wolfing about their Longhorns over and over and over and OVER AGAIN.)
August 6th: New Year's Six and playoff picks

I'll let you guys soak all this in, and I'll be back later...

 

[jjc2009]

Gotta wait til Mid-July.

 

[PSUTE]

So after a rough offseason (and dealing with some family business), I'm back! We can now return to reading about the world of college football, and here is the schedule I've planned for the summer:

Group of Five Conferences (on this thread):​

Week of May 27th: Conference USA (I want to rush to the aid of UTEP, so this conference is going first.)
Week of June 3rd: Mountain West (Nearly every team here is either replacing a QB, or will have no help for their QB. Great!)
Week of June 10th: MAC (Ohio may be a shoo-in to win the East... and lose to whoever the West champ is.)
Week of June 17th: American (Tulane is alive! Oh, and their game with UCF is November 23rd.)
Week of June 24th: Sun Belt (Wait... Texas State now has hope for the future?! That's a development I need to see.)

Power 5 Conferences (on separate threads):​

Week of July 1st: Big 10 (Because I want to get the Michigan preview over and done with as quickly as possible.)
Week of July 8th: PAC-12 (AKA: People freaking out over Justin Herbert for 7 days straight.)
Week of July 15th: SEC (It's Georgia! It's Florida! It's... those jerks from Tuscaloosa! Enough said.)
Week of July 22nd: ACC and Notre Dame (I'm thinking of using the Monty Python line "And now for something completely different" as the tagline for this conference. What do you think?)
Week of July 29th: Big 12 [with extras!] (AKA: Texas wolfing about their Longhorns over and over and over and OVER AGAIN.)
August 6th: New Year's Six and playoff picks

I'll let you guys soak all this in, and I'll be back later...

First season here. Looking forward to it...

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

St. Thomas wins too much, kicked out of MIAC

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

UTEP

The first preview segment of the 2019 season: The Texas El-Paso Miners

Last season: ESPN writer Ryan McGee has been picking on poor UTEP for a while now. In fact, he and all of his friends (Charlie Weis, Jerry Glanville, esc.) voted UTEP the worst team in the nation for the 2nd year in a row last November after the Miners went 1-11.
Picking on them for comedic purposes, I get. But now "Street and Smith" magazine has UTEP coach Dana Dimel on the hot seat?! Can't you guys leave him alone to fix this mess?

Bad news: Wide-receiver is an area of concern, as UTEP has a lot of players but no proven play-makers. The secondary got decimated by graduation, and the Miners need to force more turnovers.

Good news: The O-line should be a LOT better than last year's (9 players with starting experience are back), which will immensely help a offense led by QB Kai Locksley and a good running back in Quardriaz Wadley.

Key games:
8/31 vs. Houston Baptist (UTEP lost to Northern Arizona last year, but I'm confident that they will beat their FCS opponent THIS time around. And it'll be a good confidence boost for them if they do.)
10/5 vs. UTSA (Early on in 2018, the Miners were in a lot of close games that they couldn't put away, including a tough 30-21 loss to the Roadrunners.)
11/23 @ New Mexico State (It should be an exciting end to UTEP's 2019 season, as they'll end it with "The Battle of I-10" against NMSU...)
11/30 vs. Rice (...and then against a fellow "brother-in-misery" in Rice.)

Bottom line: If Locksley can stay healthy (and/or if the O-line keeps him protected), if the defense can get better, and if they stay healthy the Miners will be much better than they were over the last 2 years. They got a LOT of if's to overcome, however.

 

[ralphiewvu]

How the heck did Locksley end up at Utep? The kid was a 4 star recruit with a division 1 coach as his dad..

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

UTSA

Preview segment: The Texas San-Antonio Roadrunners

Last season: The Roadrunners were able to beat Rice, UTEP, and Texas State in 2018. The good news was, they were all in-state foes. The bad news was, they were the only 3 wins UTSA were able to get last season (thanks to a gut of injuries). Now in Year 4, coach Frank Wilson is hoping for vast improvements.

Good news: The defensive line has size and talent, and thanks to some good WR's the Roadrunner offense WILL improve in 2019...

Bad news: ...it can't possibly get any worse (they finished last in total offense last year). The running game has to get better, the secondary hopes to improve, and special teams is a bit iffy.

2019 X-factor: The offensive line- Like the secondary, the O-line went through some growing pains in 2018. If the unit progresses, it'll be worth it's weight in gold for that maligned offense.

Key games:
9/21 @ North Texas (On UTSA's Senior Day, they almost stunned the Mean Green before falling 24-21.)
10/5 @ UTEP, and 10/19 vs. Rice (UTSA was able to turn both the Miners and the Owls away last year, and here's hoping they can do it again.)
11/16 vs. Southern Miss (By this time, we'll know how much better that UTSA offense is.)

Bottom line: UTSA is nowhere near ready to challenge for the C-USA West title. But a level of improvement is expected, especially on the offense. If they manage to do that, they'll be fine; just don't expect them in a bowl this year.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Southern Mississippi

Preview segment: The Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Last season: A pretty average 6-5 mark, and to make it worse USM got snubbed for a bowl game. Maybe the bowl organizers didn't want to put that boring USM offense on TV.

Good news: People are saying a lot of good things about the Golden Eagles defense; the secondary returns nearly everyone. And every other defensive position has size and power. QB Jack Abraham is back after leading the nation in completion percentage last year...

Bad news: ...but Jack's lack of arm strength means he MAY lose his starting job this summer. In fact, the entire offense needs some help; the RB position is untested and their top WR (Quez Watkins) may not come back.

2019 X-factor: The O-line- I have no clue who's gonna line up where on the USM O-line, but to be fair nobody else on the USM offense knows either. It DOES return some experience, though, so if it jells THIS time around we'd better watch out.

Key games:
9/14 @ Troy (Sandwiched in-between tough games at Miss. State and 'Bama is this bout in Mobile. And if USM's offense finds a spark, I think they can win this.)
10/12 vs. North Texas (We'll know the Golden Eagles' fate in the C-USA West very quickly as they'll face the Mean Green...)
10/19 @ Louisiana Tech (...and La-Tech in consecutive weeks.)
11/9 vs. UAB (Southern Miss has now lost 7 of their last 8 meetings with the rival Blazers.)

Bottom line: Strangely, I'll be buying stock in Southern Miss this year; they got the talent on defense and the home game against North Texas. All Jay Hopson has to do is spark his offensive attack, and the Golden Eagles might just be our 2019 C-USA champions.
But if they lose to UNT or La-Tech, they'll be stuck with just a 6-or-7 win season... which may not sit so well in Hattiesburg.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

North Texas

Preview segment: The North Texas Mean Green

Last season: An exceptional season for the Mean Green, as with QB Mason Fine on offense and a Top-50 defense gave UNT a 9-4 record. North Texas hasn't had a run like this since they were the bullies of the Sun Belt from 2001-2004, but could it end this year?

Good news: Most likely not, since Mason Fine is back for one more year and he has 3 of his top 4 WR's coming back. RB DeAndre Torrey is also coming back, and so is defensive coordinator Troy Reffett.

Bad news: However, Troy must replace 6 fine players from last year's defense; fixing the D-line should be his top priority. And that slick offense does have a few holes to plug at the tackle positions.

Key games:
9/14 @ California (This game should be very intriguing to watch. Can Mason Fine break that strong Cal defense and get UNT a signature win [like their win over Arkansas from a year ago]?)
9/28 vs. Houston (Cool! Let's see if UNT can make more headway in their home state.)
10/12 @ Southern Miss (Same scenario as the Cal game: can UNT break a strong defense on the road?)
11/9 @ Louisiana Tech (A 29-27 loss to the Bulldogs...)
11/30 vs. UAB (...and a 29-21 loss to the Blazers were the only real blemishes on North Texas's 2018 season. Blemishes, by the way, that would cost them the West division.)

Bottom line: It's actually easy for me to predict North Texas's fortunes for 2019: If they can repair the holes on their defense, they'll be the favorite to win the West division and maybe even Conference USA. If they can't, they'll just have to settle for a lesser-tier bowl as Southern Miss, UAB, or La-Tech steals their lunch.

 

[Boise4Life]

God bless you. Writing about teams like the University of Texas El Paso Miners and University of Texas San Antonio Roadrunners. I got a lot of respect for you man.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Florida Atlantic

Preview segment: The Florida Atlantic Owls

Last season: I remember this so well; last year when EVERYONE thought FAU was gonna repeat as C-USA champs, I stood up and said "Lane Kiffin has burned us before with the Oakland Raiders and USC; don't be surprised if they falter and lose the division".
Now I'm not a guy that says 'I told you so', but I TOLD YOU SO!! It was Middle Tennessee that took the East and not the Owls! ...But I was surprised when FAU didn't even make a bowl game in 2018; I thought Lane would at least do that.

Bad news: Lane will be busy during the summer, as he'll try to fix a running game that'll be missing Devin Singletary and Kerrith Whyte. The QB spot is unsettled [more on that later], and FAU is on their 3rd defensive coordinator in 3 years...

Good news: ...but at least the defensive players are embracing their new schemes. The Owls has a gaggle of good WR's and a proud O-line, plus a secondary that has all-conference potential.

2019 X-factor: Quarterback- Had Chris Robison not acted like an idiot and allegedly assaulted a woman, FAU wouldn't have to worry about their QB situation. But we'll wait to see what happens next, and if Robison will be back on the team this fall or if Indiana transfer Nick Tronti will be the head man.

Key games:
9/7 vs. UCF (It looks like it'll be another tough start for Lane Kiffin and crew, as they'll host UCF right after starting the season at Ohio State.)
9/28 @ Charlotte (Who'd would have thought that the 49ers could knock FAU out of the postseason last year? FAU fans certainly didn't.)
10/12 vs. Middle Tennessee (We'll know by late October if FAU can compete for the East division crown, as the Owls will play the Blue Raiders...)
10/19 vs. Marshall (...and the Thundering Herd in consecutive weeks.)
11/9 vs. Florida International (At least in 2018, FAU was able to beat the Golden Panthers again.)

Bottom line: This one is hard to call. The Owls has talent in many key areas, but the QB position is unsettled and all the momentum from 2017 is gone. If FAU can't beat Marshall or FIU this year, they'll be stuck just fighting for a bowl. Lane, let's see if you can redeem yourself... again.

 

[blazer prophet]

Nice to see you reviewing the minor leagues before the major leagues.

 

[Olyduck]

God bless you. Writing about teams like the University of Texas El Paso Miners and University of Texas San Antonio Roadrunners. I got a lot of respect for you man.

i used to do that. one time when i wrote for bleacher report they had an affiliation to CBS Sports and my Sun Belt article was CBS college football front page for a day.

 

[Olyduck]

How the heck did Locksley end up at Utep? The kid was a 4 star recruit with a division 1 coach as his dad..

grades?

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Charlotte

Preview segment: The Charlotte 49ers

Last season: Things actually got better for the 49ers last year as they went 5-7 and finished at .500 in conference play. And Brad Lambert... STILL got fired?!

2019 X-factor: New head coach Will Healy- Replacing Lambert is a boy from the FCS named Will Healy, who comes in with a lot of optimism [mainly because he was winning at FCS whipping-boy Austin Peay]. And he's already promised to improve in-state recruiting, so we'll see how this goes.

Good news: The kicking game has been stabilized, and 8 starters return from a darn-good defense. QB Chris Reynolds is back...

Bad news: ...but don't be surprised if he gets replaced [The passing game finished 106th last year]. The coaching staff needs to replace 3 starters on the O-line if they want RB Benny LeMay to get going.

Key games:
9/21 @ Clemson (The 49ers visit the defending national champs in the year's 2nd-worse mismatch. And let's hope they don't get damaged too much...)
9/28 vs. Florida Atlantic (...because they start C-USA play against FAU right afterwards.)
11/2 vs. Middle Tennessee (An important swing-game for Charlotte's postseason chances.)
11/23 vs. Marshall (On the 49ers' Senior Day, can they catch Marshall looking ahead to FIU?)

Bottom line: Optimism is running wild in Charlotte right now, as the 49ers hope to make their first-ever bowl with their new coach. Games against Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, and Old Dominion could decide if Charlotte accomplishes that goal in 2019.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Old Dominion

Preview segment: The Old Dominion Monarchs

Last season: A tough 4-8. But hey, at least Bobby Wilder and the team can hang their hats on that Virginia Tech stunner they pulled.

Bad news: Experience will be lacking as 21 seniors from 2018 are gone. The starting QB spot is up in the air, and both the offensive and defensive lines need a bit of rebuilding.

Good news: Don't sleep on ODU's linebackers or running backs; both positions are deep and can make plays.

Key games:
9/7 @ Virginia Tech (Oh dear... it's the rematch against the Va-Tech team that ODU stunned last year.)
10/5 vs. Western Kentucky (The conference opener for ODU, and it's a winnable one.)
10/26 vs. Florida Atlantic (Another winnable contest for the Monarchs.)

Bottom line: Sadly, my interest in this team is low in 2019. Unless Old Dominion pulls off another upset [against Va-Tech or in conference], we can ignore the Monarchs this year as they'll slide to the basement of the C-USA East.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Middle Tennessee

Preview segment: The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Last season: Well, you can't say that MTSU didn't want a conference title in 2018; they certainly did as they defeated teams like Marshall, FAU, and UAB to take the East division and host the title game. It just didn't work out as UAB got past them in a 27-25 thriller. But after a 8-6 season, the rebuilding now begins in Murfreesboro.

Bad news: The era of Brent Stockstill is finally over [more on that later], but also gone are all of the WR's not named Ty Lee. The O-line also has to replace some people, too.

Good news: Despite only returning 5 starters, the defense may actually be OK thanks to a good D-line and strong men in the secondary (like Reed Blankenship and Jovante Moffatt).

2019 X-factor: QB Randall Johnson- So far, replacing Stockstill hasn't been easy for the Blue Raiders, but maybe this guy can step in; he DID rack up some good numbers at Reedley College in Cali.

Key games:
9/14 vs. Duke (This is part of a daunting non-conference slate that includes trips to Michigan and Iowa.)
10/5 vs. Marshall (But maybe that slate will toughen them up for this VERY important conference opener.)
10/19 @ North Texas (This will be a big test for the Blue Raider defense.)
10/26 vs. Florida International (The East division will pivot on this game... but FIU could be on a major roll.)

Bottom line: Thankfully MTSU's November schedule is very forgiving, so the more wins that the Blue Raiders accumulate over September and October, the better their bowl chances will be in 2019 as they begin life without Stockstill.
As for the division... Well, they DO host FIU and Marshall, so don't count them out just yet!

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Alabama-Birmingham

Preview segment: The UAB Blazers

Last season: Wow, Bill Clark! Now that's talent! How were you able to win "National Coach of the Year" honors 2 years in a row?
Okay, that was a trick question; UAB will be crowing about the 2018 season forever. A school-record 11 wins, the Conference USA title, and shortly this comeback will be immortalized in a movie starring Ryan Reynolds. But the movie will come later. Now we need to see if UAB can shock the nation again by winning in 2019.

Bad news: Why did I say "shock the nation"? Well, there's the small matter of replacing their top two pass-rushers, their top two run-stoppers, and 4 starters from their O-line. Overall, UAB is replacing 35 seniors from the 2018 team.

Good news: Two guys that ARE sticking around for a while is QB Tyler Johnson III and RB Spencer Brown, the guys that sparked UAB's title push. There IS still some talent at WR, and an easy early schedule will help the defense gain confidence.

Key games:
9/21 vs. South Alabama (When UAB shut it's doors in 2014, the University of South Alabama swooped in to take their wayward recruits and players. Now after 3 years of waiting, I FINALLY get to see these two go at it one-on-one. The hatred will FLOW here!)
11/9 @ Southern Miss (As I mentioned earlier, UAB's early schedule is easy. But as a trade-off, the Blazers will have a hard November. They must visit Tennessee, then go visit a rival in Southern Miss...)
11/16 vs. Louisiana Tech (...and later deal with an always-tough La-Tech team.)
11/30 vs. North Texas (The good news is, if UAB survives all of that then they'll be defending the West division title when the Mean Green comes to town.)

Bottom line: The big question in Birmingham now is "How long can this delirious Cinderella-esque joyride go on?". Well, even though UAB is replacing 35 players, don't be surprised if Bill Clark somehow keeps UAB in the C-USA title discussion; he's THAT good of a coach. A bowl game is the floor for UAB in 2019, and they'll shoot higher if the lines hold it together.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Florida International

Preview segment: The Florida International Golden Panthers

Last season: After a long wait at the DMV to renew my license, I'm back. And let's keep these positive vibes going with the Golden Panthers; picked to finish near the bottom of the East division, Butch Davis and FIU instead racked up a school-record 9 wins in 2018 including their 2nd-ever bowl win. In fact, had it not been for Marshall, FIU would have faced UAB for the C-USA title instead of Middle Tennessee! Butch continues to do wonders over here.

Good news: The O-line should be better this year, which will help QB James Morgan stay healthy and keep passing FIU to more wins. The secondary looks solid and 9 of FIU's top 10 pass-catchers from 2018 are back.

Bad news: Stopping the run could be a problem since FIU's D-line has some holes to fill. And as for FIU's run game, it was spotty at best in 2018 and it needs to get better.

Key games:
9/21 @ Louisiana Tech (This conference opener has a QB duel between James Morgan and J'Mar Smith. Cooooollll...)
10/26 @ Middle Tennessee (Despite being on the road, I see FIU smashing a Blue Raider team that could be out of gas by this time.)
11/9 @ Florida Atlantic (FIU has lost 3 of their last 4 against the Owls, and last year's 49-14 loss had to REALLY sting.)
11/23 vs. Miami (Wait... The Hurricanes has to go to a small, 20,000-seat stadium to play a cross-city team? Maybe FIU can catch the 'Canes napping!)
11/30 @ Marshall (Or maybe not; maybe the Panthers will be looking ahead to this BIG finale that could decide the East division.)

Bottom line: Well, this is a rarity in football: Florida International is going into a season as a favorite. And with almost all of their tough games on the road, maybe they'll crumble. But most likely, Butch Jones and James Morgan will stay calm and shoot for the division crown that eluded them the last time.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Rice

Preview segment: The Rice Owls

Last season: A rough 2-11.

Good news: The Owls has a strong secondary and some solid WR's. The D-line has some good young linebackers...

Bad news: ...but not a lot of depth. A freshmen might start at QB, and a rough schedule [featuring 9 bowl teams from a year ago] could expose just how thin Rice really is.

Key games:
9/14 vs. Texas [at NRG Stadium in Houston] (Did you know that this game will mark the 25th anniversary of the last time Rice defeated Texas?)
10/19 @ UTSA (If Rice's offense is moving by this time, this game looks winnable.)
11/30 @ UTEP (This could be another "Pillow Fight of the Year of the Century"... or whatever ESPN's Ryan McGee calls it.)

Bottom line: Rice has some good individual pieces, but that schedule will NOT help this team develop into a winner. You can ignore Rice in 2019 as they'll compete for the #1 spot in the "Bottom 10"... right next to New Mexico State.