My 6th annual CFB preview thread (Part 1)

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

App. State

Preview segment: The Appalachian State Mountaineers

Last season: This school from Boone, North Carolina continues to be "hot, hot, hot" as 2018 was another banner year. With Zac Thomas and many others emerging, the Mountaineers stormed to an 11-2 record that included another Sun Belt championship, another bowl win, and their 1st-ever ranking in the polls.
But in the offseason, it finally happened: Somebody snatched up coach Scott Satterfield, and he's now at Louisville. Yet despite having a new head man, App. State are still harboring big dreams.

Good news: A veteran roster should help new head coach Eliah Drinkwitz get situated, as people like Zac Thomas and Darrynton Evans are back. 6 starters return to a defense that ranked 6th in total defense last year, including 2 powerful linebackers.

Bad news: The secondary could be a concern, as it must replace 2 of it's top corners. Depth might also be an issue.

Key games:
9/21 @ North Carolina (These 2 in-state schools have met only once before, way back in 1940. This will be a MONSTER game for the Mountaineers in terms of program pride.)
10/9 @ UL-Lafayette (Careful, App. State! Yes, you defeated the Cajuns twice last season, but both of those games took place in Boone. Let's see how you perform in Lafayette, with the Cajuns ready to go.)
10/31 vs. Georgia Southern (App. State's stay in the Top 25 last year only lasted 1 week. And guess who knocked them out of the polls? Yep, the rival Eagles.)
11/9 @ South Carolina (Another huge game for the Mountaineers in their region, but I think the Gamecocks will be a LOT harder team to topple than the Tar Heels.)
11/29 @ Troy (Ooooo! Now the Sun Belt is throwing their name into the "Black Friday" hat with this great-looking contest. The East could once again be decided here.)

Bottom line: When I first looked at App. State in 2019, I was tempted to make them my favorite to get the "Group Of Five" spot in the "New Year's Six" bowls, as they'll be welcoming back a ton of production. But most of their hard games are on the road, and this is Eliah Drinkwitz's 1st time being a head coach.
Despite those worries, the Mountaineers will still be the favorite to win the Sun Belt once again... IF they can get past Troy and Georgia Southern again.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Georgia Southern

Preview segment: The Georgia Southern Eagles

Last season: After an incredible 2018 season, people working for the Georgia Southern campus drilled placards into the offices of the coaching staff and the head coach: "Thou shall not f--k with the triple option!"
Why? Because it works. 2 years after the disastrous tenure of Tyson Summers, coach Chad Lunsford and the Eagles are coming off their first 10-win season in their tenure in the FBS. All while setting NCAA records for fewest turnovers in a season and throwing no interceptions.

Good news: Despite losing Wesley Fields, the running game should still deliver with playmakers like Wesley Kennedy. QB Shai Werts returns to be the catalyst for the whole offense, and the defense returns 7 starters.

Bad news: A miserable road schedule will not be good for the Eagles' new O-line (it's replacing 3 starters).

Key games:
9/14 @ Minnesota (This is only the 2nd-ever game the Eagles will have against Big 10 competition. Hopefully it'll be better than the 52-17 blowout Indiana laid on them.)
9/28 vs. UL-Lafayette, and 11/16 vs. UL-Monroe (Both of these home games will be big. The ULL game will be a glamour contest for the league, and when the Eagles started last year 7-1 ULM stunned them 44-25.)
10/31 @ App. State (Another epic game in this rivalry is expected.)
11/9 @ Troy (Much like the above game, this contest will have a BIG impact on who wins the East division. At least Georgia Southern's road slate won't get any worse!)
11/23 @ Arkansas State (...Why did I even say that?)

Bottom line: About the only thing the Eagles DIDN'T do last year was get an invite to the Sun Belt title game. Oh well, there's always this year! Shai Werts and a good defense will put the Eagles into another bowl, but taking the East will require mastering that HARD road slate.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Arkansas State

Preview segment: The Arkansas State Red Wolves

Last season: Remember the former Adult Swim program "Brad Neely's Sclopio Peepio"? It's okay if you don't. But see, I was pretty tempted to compare Arkansas State's 2018 season to one of Brad Neely's skits that he wrote for the show: Humpington. "He can win the all-new West division... but he doesn't. He can use a pretty cool offense to beat Nevada in a bowl game... but he doesn't." You know, that kind of thing.
But I thought better of it; the Red Wolves look like the safest bet to win the West division... again.

Bad news: However, they'll have to do it without Justice Hansen and 3 studs from 2018's O-line. Oh, and the pass rush may be a bit lacking on defense.

Good news: The skill positions are ready to go; there's depth at WR and Marcel Murray has a chance to be a 1,000-yard rusher. The defense should keep the team afloat early on as it returns 7 starters (including a good secondary).

2019 X-factor: The games against UNLV and SMU- Why, you ask? Because the Red Wolves are counting on Logan Bonner to fill the shoes at QB. If he struggles and loses 1 [or even both] of their first 2 games, that may not bode so well for the QB position for Arkansas State in 2019.

Key games:
9/28 @ Troy (Quite a tough way to close out a September, eh Blake Andersen? Dealing with an always-tough Troy who should be 3-0 entering this game?)
10/17 vs. UL-Lafayette (In contrast, this big game is right up the Red Wolves' alley. They'll have time to prep for this, plus they'll remember how the Cajuns stole the West division last year by beating them 47-43.)
11/2 @ UL-Monroe (An upset can occur here if Arkansas State takes Caleb Evans and the Warhawks lightly.)
11/23 vs. Georgia Southern (A bit of a shame, honestly. I always enjoyed these 2 teams playing each other early on in the year. Oh well, this should still be a good one.)

Bottom line: The Red Wolves should be motivated to keep their fine run of success going, plus their revenge game with UL-Lafayette is at home. If the offense keeps it together, there'll be no excuses for Arkansas State if they don't win the West division this year.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Texas State

Preview segment: The Texas State Bobcats

Last season: Another bad season as Texas State went 3-9. But what's this? The Bobcats now has optimism entering a season of football?! What's the meaning of this stunning development?

Good news: New head coach Jake Spavital is bringing in a LOT of energy to the program, and he'll inherit a good defense that returns 9 starters from a year ago. The WR's should be good as well...

Bad news: ...but they're still waiting for a QB to emerge (which is almost never a good sign). Oh, and the running game badly needs a pick-me-up.

Key games:
9/7 vs. Wyoming (A winnable game for the Bobcats... but, MAN it's gonna be ugly.)
9/21 vs. Georgia State (A winnable conference opener, and also the Bobcats defeated Georgia State last year.)
10/10 vs. UL-Monroe (Texas State only lost 20-14 to the Warhawks in Monroe last year. Keep trying!)

Bottom line: Excluding the opener at Texas A&M, the Bobcats' slate is very manageable. About the only thing keeping Texas State from seriously thinking about a bowl berth is a hard road slate that includes App. State and Arkansas State.
But at least Texas State has hope in 2019, which is more than what they've had in recent years. We'll see how the energy of this new coaching staff affects the players of San Marcos, Texas.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Troy

The last preview segment for the Sun Belt: The Troy Trojans

Last season: The last 3 years have been heavenly for the Trojans from Troy, Alabama. 31 wins, a conference title, the same winning percentage as UCF (.795), and hang-your-hat wins over LSU and Nebraska. But as usual, this means a "Group of Five" program loses their coach, so good bye Neal Brown! Good luck at West Virginia!
So now with Neil gone, Troy is doing what App. State did: Picking a first-time head coach to lead the way in 2019.

Good news: New coach Chip Lindsey inherits what may be the best running game in the Sun Belt this year, as B.J Smith and a strong O-line look ready to go. Pay attention to LB Carlton Martial; he impressed as a freshmen and he's ready to anchor the D-line.

Bad news: Troy will be without it's top 3 receivers from a year ago, including dynamic kick-returner Marcus Jones. Senior leadership may also be lacking on defense.

2019 X-factor: Quarterback- Don't get me wrong, both Sawyer Smith and Gunnar Watson looked good in the spring. But with new schemes and new ideas being implemented, we'll all be anxious to see who Chip will go with this season.

Key games:
9/28 vs. Arkansas State (Troy will start conference play against the team they skipped in Sun Belt play last year. If Troy's not 3-0 by the time this game comes around, I'll be surprised.)
11/9 vs. Georgia Southern (Troy's won the last 2 encounters they had with the Eagles. They'll be in good shape in the East division if they make it 3 in a row.)
11/23 @ UL-Lafayette (An upset in the making?)
11/30 vs. App. State (Troy only lost 1 conference game all of last season. It was a BIG one, though, as it was against the Mountaineers... who took the win all the way to the conference title.)

Bottom line: Much like Eliah Drinkwitz at App. State, Chip Lindsey fell into a good situation for his first head coaching job. The cupboard's not bare for Troy, and the schedule is very manageable, so I guess all Chip has to do is make sure everyone learns the new schemes by November.
Why? 'Cause November is where Troy's season will be won or lost.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Sun Belt predictions

Now it's time for the final set of predictions on this thread: It's Sun Belt prediction time!

East division:
1. Appalachian State (Conference champs, maybe "New Year's Six")
2. Georgia Southern
3. Troy
4. Coastal Carolina
5. Georgia State

West division:
1. Arkansas State
2. UL-Lafayette
3. UL-Monroe
4. Texas State
5. South Alabama

...but my work on this thread is not over yet! How about predictions for Liberty and Army tomorrow?

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Army

Preview segment: The Army Black Knights

Last season: Hey, kids! Are you getting sick and tired of Alabama and Clemson stealing all of the headlines? Then come over to the touching comeback story of your United States armed forces and their football team! Last year, Army finished 11-2 with their best finish in the AP Poll since the Earl Blaik era of the mid-to-late 50's. And the scariest part? All of this might happen again...

Bad news: Or... maybe not. Army's D-line is almost all new with only 1 starter coming back. And the departure of FB Darnell Woolfolk means that Army will have to find a new workhorse.

Good news: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. might just be the best QB that Army's EVER had, and he's back for one more year alongside a good O-line. The secondary has impact players, and with the depth Jeff Monkin has developed at West Point maybe he can find some seniors to patch up that D-line.

Key games:
9/7 @ Michigan (Since every CFB magazine is listing this as a "showcase game", I guess I must follow suit. But remember, if Army wants a chance to win this game, that new D-line has to step up.)
10/12 @ Western Kentucky (Call me nuts, but this may be a game where Army could get upset.)
11/2 @ Air Force (Of course, the biggest concerns for Army this year is to turn away the Air Force academy again...)
12/14 vs. Navy [in Philadelphia] (...and then continue to pay back the Midshipmen for that 14-game winning streak in this rivalry through 2002-2015.)

Bottom line: The schedule Army has in 2019 is very gentle. The bad news is, that could derail any crazy "New Year's Six" dreams the Black Knights have. But the good news is that Army may continue to roll and get another run with the Commander-in-Chief trophy. Hmmm... they DID scare Oklahoma last year...

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Liberty

Preview segment: The Liberty Flames

Last season: Liberty actually did OK in their 1st season in the FBS as they went 6-6. That didn't get them a bowl berth, but still, well done! Oh, and in the offseason they were able to get Hugh Freeze to be their head coach after Turner Gill retired, with Freeze anxious to restart his coaching career.

Good news: Freeze and his veteran coaching staff wants to use a fast pace for the offense, and they've got some weapons that can make it work; WR Antonio Gandy-Golden and QB Buckshot Calvert are just two of them.

Bad news: Special teams are a major work-in-process, and despite having people like Austin Lewis the defense is a worry. Oh, and with this new faster offense, it might be on the field a bit more...

Key games:
8/31 vs. Syracuse (This is the first real chance we'll have to see this new offense in action.)
10/5 @ New Mexico State (For the 2nd year in a row, Liberty has an awkward home-and-home series against New Mexico State in the same season! So hopefully this visit to Las Cruces will go better for the Flames than the last one.)
10/26 @ Rutgers (This one does look winnable if the Flames' defense shows up.)
11/2 @ UMass (Does anybody remember that UMass and Liberty had a 3-OT game last year that ended with UMass winning 62-59? Anyone?)

Bottom line: The Flames will be flirting with another break-even season this year, but they'll have to make some adjustments under their new head coach and overcome a stretch of 4 straight road games late in the year.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

..and we're done.

Yep, this will be my last post on this thread. It's off to handling the "Power 5" conferences for me, and that will start on Monday with the Big 10!