M's Magic numbers

[WizardHawk]

Here we go guys. The last 20 games and the push to the playoffs.

As of tonight, the most important number is 16. M's need that number of wins + Baltimore losses to lockup a WC spot*.

The other 2 are 20 for the Rays and 21 for Toronto to move up in seeding.

We've waited a long fucking time for this. Enjoy the ride to the end.

P.S. *Yes, there are other teams not eliminated yet so only listing Baltimore isn't entirely accurate. It is the team talked about nationally.
White sox - 13
Twins - 13
Red sox - 10
Rangers - 3

Bonus of Guardians - 18 - in case they fall below either of the other central teams.

And 8 is the magic number Houston has over the M's

 

[jon2tanman]

I'm going to the game with 7 other family members on the 29th. It's been a while since the M's sold playoff tickets, and am wondering if they will go on sale immediately after we clinch or when the season ends. I have been to 2 playoff games and it's been a long long time ago.

 

[kcden]

I'm going to the game with 7 other family members on the 29th. It's been a while since the M's sold playoff tickets, and am wondering if they will go on sale immediately after we clinch or when the season ends. I have been to 2 playoff games and it's been a long long time ago.

They put them up for sale some time last year, so it should be before they clinch

 

[NWinAZ]

Ya I made the 4.5-5 hour roundtrip to the entire '95 home playoff games. Worth every minute.

 

[WizardHawk]

They won't sell anything until they clinch the 4 seed or after they win the first round.

They might not win the 4, or it could be in play up to the last day.

 

[seattlefan75]

Man 20 plus years we have waited for this. 20 plus years of disappointment from bad free agent signings, mismanagement of high draft picks that turn into busts, losing end of trades, and being told that the Mariners are on no trade clauses for superstars on the trade block. Now we are in position to end it and make it to the playoffs. What I like most about it is that we are a team that actually has awesome players and not some team that has caught fire with some no names trying to inch our way in trying to secure the last spot.

 

[kcden]

They won't sell anything until they clinch the 4 seed or after they win the first round.

They might not win the 4, or it could be in play up to the last day.

This is from October 2nd, last year, so I think you're wrong:

 

[NWinAZ]

They usually sell weeks ahead of time no matter what because of the logistics of waiting until they actually know. They refund of it changes. That how it was back in the day and with Hawks tickets.

 

[WizardHawk]

Update - M's might have lost both games since this thread started, but here are the latest magic numbers:
BAL - 14
CWD - 12
MIN - 10
BOS - 8

TB is still at 19 for ending above them and TOR is 20.
HOU is at 4 for clinching the West.

 

[WizardHawk]

Things may slip even farther the next few days as Baltimore takes on Detroit for 3.

As it stands now, the odds are higher for the central runner-up to be able to overcome the M's lead than the orioles. Mind you, it's still less than 2% chance, but that is the scoreboard to watch.

Before the M's started this series, the orioles would have had to go 16-4 if the M's only played 10-10 over that span. They have already lost a few, but so have the M's.

Of course they can't just coast in. They do have to hit a steak against a couple of these remaining series.

Right now the odds are at 98.9% chance for the M's to get in.

 

[NWinAZ]

The good news I suppose in all this losing is that as of today we would play the Guardians and winner takes on the Yankees. That might be the best case scenario for the Mariners.

 

[WizardHawk]

Bal - 12
CWS - 11
Min - 8
Bos - 7

ANGELS - Eliminated

If you include tiebreakers Bal is actually 11

 

[WizardHawk]

BAL - 10 (9 w/ tiebreaker)
CWS - 8 (9)
MIN - 4 (3)

BOS - 4

 

[MarinersBestFan]

Just feels like it is slipping away

Saturday morning Sept 24

Orioles on a 3 game winning streak and we just lost again last nite

Current lead by M's in WC standing is a paltry 3 games

If we lose both over the weekend and O's win both, we take the field at home on Tuesday Sept 27 up just a single game in the WC standings for the last spot.

Team offense has completely checked out, and our pitching staff will need to hang a few goose eggs on TX Rangers this 3 game set mid-week or I think Baltimore is in our WC spot by the end of next weekend Sunday night.

Wish I was more optimistic ... I just got a real bad feeling in my gut.

 

[WizardHawk]

Just feels like it is slipping away

Saturday morning Sept 24

Orioles on a 3 game winning streak and we just lost again last nite

Current lead by M's in WC standing is a paltry 3 games

If we lose both over the weekend and O's win both, we take the field at home on Tuesday Sept 27 up just a single game in the WC standings for the last spot.

Team offense has completely checked out, and our pitching staff will need to hang a few goose eggs on TX Rangers this 3 game set mid-week or I think Baltimore is in our WC spot by the end of next weekend Sunday night.

Wish I was more optimistic ... I just got a real bad feeling in my gut.

They have 2 more against the stros, 4 on the road at Boston, 3 on the road at NY, and finish with 3 at home with Toronto. Right now they have a 1.6% chance of making the playoffs.

If they win enough to overcome the M's they deserve it more than them.

M's are for sure playing like absolute dog shit right now. Streaks can last, but also flip at any time.

Best they can finish this road trip now is 4-6 with 2 wins this weekend. The matchups are better for both, but the guys have to go out and play better.

 

[WizardHawk]

M's are facing a pitcher that is 2-13 and 5.81 ERA today. There's no excuse for a 1 run performance. They have to right the ship on the offense today.

Even a win of like 2-1 would be unacceptable.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

They have 2 more against the stros, 4 on the road at Boston, 3 on the road at NY, and finish with 3 at home with Toronto. Right now they have a 1.6% chance of making the playoffs.

If they win enough to overcome the M's they deserve it more than them.

M's are for sure playing like absolute dog shit right now. Streaks can last, but also flip at any time.

Best they can finish this road trip now is 4-6 with 2 wins this weekend. The matchups are better for both, but the guys have to go out and play better.

The O's just beat Houston 2 in a row ( shut them out both games )

We have lost 7 of our past 10 games. In 6 of 7 of the losses we have scored 1 run or less. I just ain't so sure we can win more than 25-30% of our games coming up with those anemic offensive numbers.

I am not sure where all these 2% chance Orioles get in the playoffs stats are coming from. As I stated if we lose both this weekend and they win both... it's a coin flip as far as I am concerned.

2 weeks ago Seattle was the LAST team anyone wanted to face in the WC games. Funny how 2 weeks later and I bet TB and TOR and CLE are begging to face the Ms in a 3 game series.

 

[WizardHawk]

The O's just beat Houston 2 in a row ( shut them out both games )

We have lost 7 of our past 10 games. In 6 of 7 of the losses we have scored 1 run or less. I just ain't so sure we can win more than 25-30% of our games coming up with those anemic offensive numbers.

I am not sure where all these 2% chance Orioles get in the playoffs stats are coming from. As I stated if we lose both this weekend and they win both... it's a coin flip as far as I am concerned.

2 weeks ago Seattle was the LAST team anyone wanted to face in the WC games. Funny how 2 weeks later and I bet TB and TOR and CLE are begging to face the Ms in a 3 game series.

And what flips one way can easily flip back.

The point was that it looked differently then and isn't set in stone now. It's not time to panic even if we are forced to watch horrible baseball lately.

These streaks/stretches flip all year long. That's baseball.

As to how those percentages are made, it has to do with the schedules, how they have played against those teams, streaks, injuries, etc.

It isn't over until it's over, but the Orioles would really have to complete one of the biggest comebacks in sports history to make it in given their path in the last 2 weeks.

I don't get why some of our fans keep blindly only looking at games back and not schedule forward though. It seems kind of odd to me. Not just opponent, but situation. M's going into the last 2 of a 10 game road trip and will finish with 10 straight at home against beatable teams. Sure, they have to right the ship and stop playing bad D and get some bats going, but if there's ever a recipe for doing that, this schedule sets up for it.

Just isn't time to panic at all for me. Not even a little.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

And what flips one way can easily flip back.

The point was that it looked differently then and isn't set in stone now. It's not time to panic even if we are forced to watch horrible baseball lately.

These streaks/stretches flip all year long. That's baseball.

As to how those percentages are made, it has to do with the schedules, how they have played against those teams, streaks, injuries, etc.

It isn't over until it's over, but the Orioles would really have to complete one of the biggest comebacks in sports history to make it in given their path in the last 2 weeks.

I don't get why some of our fans keep blindly only looking at games back and not schedule forward though. It seems kind of odd to me. Not just opponent, but situation. M's going into the last 2 of a 10 game road trip and will finish with 10 straight at home against beatable teams. Sure, they have to right the ship and stop playing bad D and get some bats going, but if there's ever a recipe for doing that, this schedule sets up for it.

Just isn't time to panic at all for me. Not even a little.

I am 90% dissapointment and 10% panic

The Mariners saving grace is they are ahead of Balt in the tie breaker, so the O's have to actually make up those 3 games PLUS at least 1/2 game on us to win the 3rd WC spot.

And technically they could boot TOR completely out as their last 3 or 4 games is vs Blue Jays and could sweep all 3 or 4.

just like in Vegas you have to play the odds, and the odds are high the Ms sneak into the post season, it just is limping into the dance in a tattered wife beater vs strutting in like ZZ Top in a nice suit.

 

[WizardHawk]

I am 90% dissapointment and 10% panic

Fair enough. Can't say my pissed off meter isn't very high right now. This is exactly what we feared when they failed to shore up the depth at the trade deadline. It's a team that can't have any type of injury or slump. Way too many guys around .200 in the lineup every single day. I don't care how solid your pitching staff is, you can't win at the highest level with this putrid lineup with any type of regularity.

As I said elsewhere, it feels like they are heading to a backdoor playoff appearance with a 2 and out on the road fiasco.