Most overrated teams/Most underrated teams

[rmilia1]

Took a look at the human polls and got an average ranking based off of those. Then took a look at the 4 primary sites people use as means to rank teams using statistical analysis ie : predictive analysis.Only looked at teams currently in the Top 25 in the polls. Most overrated teams by the humans and the amount the human polls overrate them are as follows:

1. Cincinnati- Bearcats are an average of 8th in the human polls and come in at an average of 21.5 in the computer polls. +13.5
2. San Diego State- Aztecs average 6.5 in the human polls and 18th in the computer polls. +11.5
3. Memphis- Tigers are 23rd average in human polls and 31.5 in computers ( lowest average of any top 25 team ) +8.5
4. Texas- Longhorns come in at 18th in the human polls and 26th in the computers. +8
5. St Louis- Billikens are a 10 spot in human land and 17.5 in the computers. +7.5

Most underrated

1. Ohio State- Buckeyes average 23.5 in the human polls yet are a solid 14th in the computers. -9.5
2. UCLA- Bruins place 24th in the human polls and 16.5 in the computers. -7.5
3. Wisconsin- Badgers come in at 17th in the human polls and 10th in the computers. -7
4. Creighton- Blue Jays rank out 11.5 in the human polls and 5th in computers. -6.5
5. Iowa- Hawks come in at 15th in the human polls and 9th in the computer analysis -6.

- Weird to me that the most overrated teams by the humans seem to be from lesser known leagues while the most underrated are, for the most part, from well known power leagues. Seems like CBB pollsters are favoring the little guy in their rankings now. Interesting.

 

[Tai Chi≈Surfing]

OT....how did your eye surgery go?

 

[rmilia1]

OT....how did your eye surgery go?

Rescheduled til next Monday. We had a ice/sleet/snow storm in Iowa last Monday so the hospital didnt want me driving from Cedar Rapids to Cedar Falls in all that shit. So I got a brief reprieve for now.

 

[wingsauce7]

Took a look at the human polls and got an average ranking based off of those. Then took a look at the 4 primary sites people use as means to rank teams using statistical analysis ie : predictive analysis.Only looked at teams currently in the Top 25 in the polls. Most overrated teams by the humans and the amount the human polls overrate them are as follows:

1. Cincinnati- Bearcats are an average of 8th in the human polls and come in at an average of 21.5 in the computer polls. +13.5
2. San Diego State- Aztecs average 6.5 in the human polls and 18th in the computer polls. +11.5
3. Memphis- Tigers are 23rd average in human polls and 31.5 in computers ( lowest average of any top 25 team ) +8.5
4. Texas- Longhorns come in at 18th in the human polls and 26th in the computers. +8
5. St Louis- Billikens are a 10 spot in human land and 17.5 in the computers. +7.5

Most underrated

1. Ohio State- Buckeyes average 23.5 in the human polls yet are a solid 14th in the computers. -9.5
2. UCLA- Bruins place 24th in the human polls and 16.5 in the computers. -7.5
3. Wisconsin- Badgers come in at 17th in the human polls and 10th in the computers. -7
4. Creighton- Blue Jays rank out 11.5 in the human polls and 5th in computers. -6.5
5. Iowa- Hawks come in at 15th in the human polls and 9th in the computer analysis -6.

- Weird to me that the most overrated teams by the humans seem to be from lesser known leagues while the most underrated are, for the most part, from well known power leagues. Seems like CBB pollsters are favoring the little guy in their rankings now. Interesting.

Doesn't surprise me at all. Computers look at your season as a whole, they factor in all the metrics and base their rankings on that. Human polls use emotion. The pollsters see highlights on SportsCenter and look at the "what have you done lately" standard. The smaller schools that aren't in the spotlight slide thru under the radar and can help themselves that way.

 

[rmilia1]

Doesn't surprise me at all. Computers look at your season as a whole, they factor in all the metrics and base their rankings on that. Human polls use emotion. The pollsters see highlights on SportsCenter and look at the "what have you done lately" standard. The smaller schools that aren't in the spotlight slide thru under the radar and can help themselves that way.

I also think pollsters tend to look more at your W/L record as opposed to how you got there. Not to besmirch SDSU, Cincinnati, St Louis and Memphis but there are alot of 5/6/7 loss teams that would have 2/3/4 losses playing their schedules IMO. Computers dont worry AS MUCH about focusing to a great extent on wins and losses.

 

[wingsauce7]

I also think pollsters tend to look more at your W/L record as opposed to how you got there. Not to besmirch SDSU, Cincinnati, St Louis and Memphis but there are alot of 5/6/7 loss teams that would have 2/3/4 losses playing their schedules IMO. Computers dont worry AS MUCH about focusing to a great extent on wins and losses.

That too.

 

[Texas Jefe]

Rescheduled til next Monday. We had a ice/sleet/snow storm in Iowa last Monday so the hospital didnt want me driving from Cedar Rapids to Cedar Falls in all that shit. So I got a brief reprieve for now.

Well that's kinda good, but I'm sure you want to get on with it. I know I had to have a big surgery, and at first I wanted it put off, but then I was ready to do the thing.

Anyway, it'll happen soon enough. Just don't spend your time thinking about it. At least, that's what I did.

 

[rmilia1]

Well that's kinda good, but I'm sure you want to get on with it. I know I had to have a big surgery, and at first I wanted it put off, but then I was ready to do the thing.

Anyway, it'll happen soon enough. Just don't spend your time thinking about it. At least, that's what I did.

Yeah I just want this shit over BUT I also didnt want to crash my car into a pillar of cement on I380 so it was probably good they rescheduled. LOL

 

[Texas Jefe]

yeah, absolutely!

 

[Cincyfan78]

Human polls also take into considerationg where you are ranked and then who loses infront of you to "move" you up, pretty much by default.

Take Cincinnati for example. Even as a UC fan, they are not the 7th-10th best team in the country. I would put them more around the 17-22 range. But, because they keep winning, and teams in front of them keep losing, they keep going up and up and up. THAT right there, IMO, is a bigger reason for the discrepancy between the human polls and the computer poll/rankings than the emotion. However, emotion also plays a big role, no doubt.

 

[kramer1]

Human polls also take into considerationg where you are ranked and then who loses infront of you to "move" you up, pretty much by default.

Take Cincinnati for example. Even as a UC fan, they are not the 7th-10th best team in the country. I would put them more around the 17-22 range. But, because they keep winning, and teams in front of them keep losing, they keep going up and up and up. THAT right there, IMO, is a bigger reason for the discrepancy between the human polls and the computer poll/rankings than the emotion. However, emotion also plays a big role, no doubt.

You're off your fucking rocker if you think they're only in the 17-22 best range.

 

[rmilia1]

Human polls also take into considerationg where you are ranked and then who loses infront of you to "move" you up, pretty much by default.

Take Cincinnati for example. Even as a UC fan, they are not the 7th-10th best team in the country. I would put them more around the 17-22 range. But, because they keep winning, and teams in front of them keep losing, they keep going up and up and up. THAT right there, IMO, is a bigger reason for the discrepancy between the human polls and the computer poll/rankings than the emotion. However, emotion also plays a big role, no doubt.

Absolutely man. Thats the BIGGEST difference between the two types of rankings. In the human polls team A could be 12th and beat 2 teams that are terrible in a week and move ahead of 3 teams that lose ahead of them even if those 3 teams beat a quality oppoent and lost to a quality opponent on the road. Computers and predictive sites look at your season as a whole every time they compute data. The human polls dont really do that, they are more smitten with what have you done lately. Its the reason a team like Wisconsin that should probably be BY FAR the highest ranked 4+ loss team is ranked 16th ( if you look at the Badgers entire season they should probably be top 10 easy ) yet a team like St Louis ( who Wisconsin beat ) is ranked top 10 despite not really beating anyone of any real note soley because they have won like 17 in a row.

 

[dcZONAfan]

You're off your fucking rocker if you think they're only in the 17-22 best range.

I am pretty sure he is firmly on the rocker. Maybe you should look in the mirror?

 

[kramer1]

I am pretty sure he is firmly on the rocker. Maybe you should look in the mirror?

No, he's nuts. I tell him on a weekly basis. We have an understanding.

 

[Brasky]

NEBRASKA until we get buttfucked by PSU tonight and I finally get to talk about a real sport on my board.

 

[Cincyfan78]

No, he's nuts. I tell him on a weekly basis. We have an understanding.

LOL

 

[iruletheskool]

NEBRASKA until we get buttfucked by PSU tonight and I finally get to talk about a real sport on my board.

 

[ericd7633]

I am a little surprised to see Texas and St Louis in the overrated group, but my guess would be neither of them played great non conference schedules. Not surprised at all to see Cincy, Memphis and SDSU. If you play in a bad league the computers are going penalize you and the humans are going to over value you based off of a gaudy record.

 

[Jim Rome is Flaming]

I am a little surprised to see Texas and St Louis in the overrated group, but my guess would be neither of them played great non conference schedules. Not surprised at all to see Cincy, Memphis and SDSU. If you play in a bad league the computers are going penalize you and the humans are going to over value you based off of a gaudy record.

Don't tell that to Kramer. After Cincy beats Louisville, they're gonna be ranked #5. That means they're the top 2 seed in the dance.

 

[rmilia1]

I am a little surprised to see Texas and St Louis in the overrated group, but my guess would be neither of them played great non conference schedules. Not surprised at all to see Cincy, Memphis and SDSU. If you play in a bad league the computers are going penalize you and the humans are going to over value you based off of a gaudy record.

That was really the only one that surprised me. Texas has surprisingly bad computer numbers for a team with as many good wins as the Horns have.