Most overrated teams/Most underrated teams

[kramer1]

Don't tell that to Kramer. After Cincy beats Louisville, they're gonna be ranked #5. That means they're the top 2 seed in the dance.

yes and yes

 

[ericd7633]

That was really the only one that surprised me. Texas has surprisingly bad computer numbers for a team with as many good wins as the Horns have.

I was curious so I looked it up. They played the 153rd ranked SOS in the non conference. That's why their numbers are so low. Their RPI wasn't even in the top 50 of non conference action despite going 11-2.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Don't tell that to Kramer. After Cincy beats Louisville, they're gonna be ranked #5. That means they're the top 2 seed in the dance.

Not sure what's to laugh at, really.

UC can totally beat UL, they did so already AT Louisville.

they can also run the table to finish 17-1 in conference play, as they've beaten everyone they are going to play. Only At UConn would be tough due to being on the road, but Memphis has to travel to UC, and then games against Rutgetrs...not much of a worry.

Finish 28-3 and 17-1 in conference play, they could easily end up with a #2 seed. They are already projected from a 2-seed by Jerry Palm, and a 4 seed by Lunardi...

Totally possible. Whether they will or not remains to be seen.

 

[rmilia1]

Not sure what's to laugh at, really.

UC can totally beat UL, they did so already AT Louisville.

they can also run the table to finish 17-1 in conference play, as they've beaten everyone they are going to play. Only At UConn would be tough due to being on the road, but Memphis has to travel to UC, and then games against Rutgetrs...not much of a worry.

Finish 28-3 and 17-1 in conference play, they could easily end up with a #2 seed. They are already projected from a 2-seed by Jerry Palm, and a 4 seed by Lunardi...

Totally possible. Whether they will or not remains to be seen.

I think Palm bases his brackets off of where he believes the teams will finish while Lunardi does it based off of where he has them currently. A slight but still significant difference. Cincy could easily end up a 2 seed if they win out ( which will be tough but not real tough ). As of THIS moment though there is no basis to have them as a 2 seed.

 

[SEC Official]

Took a look at the human polls and got an average ranking based off of those. Then took a look at the 4 primary sites people use as means to rank teams using statistical analysis ie : predictive analysis.Only looked at teams currently in the Top 25 in the polls. Most overrated teams by the humans and the amount the human polls overrate them are as follows:

1. Cincinnati- Bearcats are an average of 8th in the human polls and come in at an average of 21.5 in the computer polls. +13.5
2. San Diego State- Aztecs average 6.5 in the human polls and 18th in the computer polls. +11.5
3. Memphis- Tigers are 23rd average in human polls and 31.5 in computers ( lowest average of any top 25 team ) +8.5
4. Texas- Longhorns come in at 18th in the human polls and 26th in the computers. +8
5. St Louis- Billikens are a 10 spot in human land and 17.5 in the computers. +7.5

Looking at your overrated... you are also saying indirectly that Wichita is probably over-rated (which I agree with). The only win in the top 40 RPI was #17 St. Louis. Outside that, they only have 2 top 50 wins (both teams were mid to high 40's RPI.) and the rest are poor teams (of which they struggled against more than a few).

So, if St. Louis is overrated... this really hurts Wichita in my mind (and I agree they are WAY overrated).

 

[Jim Rome is Flaming]

Not sure what's to laugh at, really.

UC can totally beat UL, they did so already AT Louisville.

they can also run the table to finish 17-1 in conference play, as they've beaten everyone they are going to play. Only At UConn would be tough due to being on the road, but Memphis has to travel to UC, and then games against Rutgetrs...not much of a worry.

Finish 28-3 and 17-1 in conference play, they could easily end up with a #2 seed. They are already projected from a 2-seed by Jerry Palm, and a 4 seed by Lunardi...

Totally possible. Whether they will or not remains to be seen.

I was referring to another thread last week where someone did their own bracketology, and had Cincy as a 4 seed. He kept going on about how they'd be ranked #5 next week in the AP, so a 4 seed is ridiculous, of course ignoring the fact that the game hadn't happened yet. I said in that thread that if you guys win out, you'll be a 2. I just think using the human polls as justification for seeding in the tourney is a joke.

http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...ussion/139244-new-bracketology-2-17-14-a.html

 

[Cincyfan78]

I was referring to another thread last week where someone did their own bracketology, and had Cincy as a 4 seed. He kept going on about how they'd be ranked #5 next week in the AP, so a 4 seed is ridiculous, of course ignoring the fact that the game hadn't happened yet. I said in that thread that if you guys win out, you'll be a 2. I just think using the human polls as justification for seeding in the tourney is a joke.

http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...ussion/139244-new-bracketology-2-17-14-a.html

Fair enough.

Human polls are flawed simply because it becomes a who loses and when they lose. As stated before, you can be 10, and end up at #2 by default if everyone in front of you loses...but that doesn't mean you're the 2nd best team in the nation.

 

[rmilia1]

Looking at your overrated... you are also saying indirectly that Wichita is probably over-rated (which I agree with). The only win in the top 40 RPI was #17 St. Louis. Outside that, they only have 2 top 50 wins (both teams were mid to high 40's RPI.) and the rest are poor teams (of which they struggled against more than a few).

So, if St. Louis is overrated... this really hurts Wichita in my mind (and I agree they are WAY overrated).

Wichita was actually the 6th most overrated at 3 by the humans and 9.5 by the computers for a +6.5

 

[TexasExes98]

I am a little surprised to see Texas and St Louis in the overrated group, but my guess would be neither of them played great non conference schedules. Not surprised at all to see Cincy, Memphis and SDSU. If you play in a bad league the computers are going penalize you and the humans are going to over value you based off of a gaudy record.

One thing Barnes is always known for and that's playing good non conference schedules. I think our OOC schedule was good:

BYU (CBE Classic in K.C.)
DePaul (CBE Classic in K.C.)
Vandy
@ Temple
@ UNC
Michigan State

I don't understand how the rankings work, but I don't think you can call Texas overrated, seeing how we were picked to finish 7th in the Big 12 this year, plus, we curbstomped the hell out of KU already and defeated 4 ranked teams in a row earlier in the year. Regardless, this team is overachieving this year, IMO.

 

[rmilia1]

One thing Barnes is always known for and that's playing good non conference schedules. I think our OOC schedule was good:

BYU (CBE Classic in K.C.)
DePaul (CBE Classic in K.C.)
Vandy
@ Temple
@ UNC
Michigan State

I don't understand how the rankings work, but I don't think you can call Texas overrated, seeing how we were picked to finish 7th in the Big 12 this year, plus, we curbstomped the hell out of KU already and defeated 4 ranked teams in a row earlier in the year. Regardless, this team is overachieving this year, IMO.

NO ONE is calling Texas overrated based off of preseason picks compared to where they are now. Thatd be fucking loony. The thread is about teams being overrated or underrated CURRENTLY by the human polls as compared to their computer numbers.

 

[Cincyfan78]

One thing Barnes is always known for and that's playing good non conference schedules. I think our OOC schedule was good:

BYU (CBE Classic in K.C.)
DePaul (CBE Classic in K.C.)
Vandy
@ Temple
@ UNC
Michigan State

I don't understand how the rankings work, but I don't think you can call Texas overrated, seeing how we were picked to finish 7th in the Big 12 this year, plus, we curbstomped the hell out of KU already and defeated 4 ranked teams in a row earlier in the year. Regardless, this team is overachieving this year, IMO.

Here's the problem: Mich St is very good, UNC is good, BYU is decent, but the Vandy, Temple, and DePaul are pretty much terrible, awful, and God-awful, which hurts the SOS.

 

[rmilia1]

Here's the problem: Mich St is very good, UNC is good, BYU is decent, but the Vandy, Temple, and DePaul are pretty much terrible, awful, and God-awful, which hurts the SOS.

Vandy is actually OK. Even DePaul doesnt really hurt you BUT Texas has 5 wins vs teams currently ranked 275+ in the RPI which is the bottom 20% of ALL D1. That really hurts your numbers and offsets a lot of those bigger wins.