Milk's version of WHO TO KEEP

[MilkSpiller22]

10 team league .5 PPR

we start QB, 2RB, 3 WR, TE, D, K

no flex...


Giant benches...



it is between Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown...

 

[averagejoe]

it is between Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown...

Do you lose a draft spot?
Either way, I'd want Andrews.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Do you lose a draft spot?
Either way, I'd want Andrews.

you do. But both were well over round 15.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Andrews. Much easier to replace Brown/WR

 

[averagejoe]

both were well over round 15.

I figured.
The risk either way is a win/win.
I think the shallow TE pool favors Andrews verses the vast and productive WR pool.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I figured.
The risk either way is a win/win.
I think the shallow TE pool favors Andrews verses the vast and productive WR pool.

I was leaning Andrews too. But it was hard. Starting 3 wrs made me want to make certain I have a WR3. And I like some low end TEs a lot.

my other keeper was Chubb. So at least I am starting off with one good player. But I have the 10th pick. So I am not going to be able to get an elite back to pair with chubb

 

[SmokingMonkey]

MAndrews

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Andrews

 

[TKOSpikes]

Brown for me...

But you only keep 2 players? I wouldn’t worry about talentless picks at 30 overall.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Brown for me...

But you only keep 2 players? I wouldn’t worry about talentless picks at 30 overall.

yea, only 2 keepers. Chubb is one.

 

[TKOSpikes]

yea, only 2 keepers. Chubb is one.

I guess I should give a little reasoning.

I expect Brown to add a nice number of targets this year.
Having him in the bank late, takes pressure off the early rounds for you.

Andrews is a regression candidate. TD are an enigma, and even the best (well, next to best), do not repeat.
10 team league. It’s tough to “pull the trigger” on those WR in 30-50 rankings. Grabbing a top ten TE will be easy to judge ...and achieve.

I suppose things could change if keepers are known. (i.e. how many RB have been/will be kept?)

 

[Shanemansj13]

I guess I should give a little reasoning.

I expect Brown to add a nice number of targets this year.
Having him in the bank late, takes pressure off the early rounds for you.

Andrews is a regression candidate. TD are an enigma, and even the best (well, next to best), do not repeat.
10 team league. It’s tough to “pull the trigger” on those WR in 30-50 rankings. Grabbing a top ten TE will be easy to judge ...and achieve.

I suppose things could change if keepers are known. (i.e. how many RB have been/will be kept?)

I think you could easily say the opposite though, that's why this is tough.

Andrews is Lamar's #1 and relied on him most...TD's sure - that could change but production should stay constant.

In the last 12 games, Brown was targeted 5 times or less in every game except one. 48% of his yards came in the first 3 games of the season. He was nothing special even for a late round pick. Now he did perform in the playoff game which kinda leaves us saying...why didn't he do this more often? A rookie sure but he seems like a one trick pony and that's playing 22% of his snaps at the slot. The one thing that made Brown's numbers look better and worth a late round pick was his touchdowns. I would say it's more likely he doesn't get those 7 TD's than Andrews gets right around 10 TD's tbh.

BUT it seemed like at times Andrews was inconsistent too...I don't trust this Ravens offense to have even near the success they did last year through the air. I think we could see both of them drop off but with so much depth at WR and TE pretty scarce I would lean Andrews. It's hard to pass up an athletic TE at 6'5" 260. The Ravens have some talented WR's...Boykin, Duvernay (the rookie I think is gonna be a stud) and Brown could get lost. If Andrews was an earlier pick I think this would be tougher but with both being 15+ round picks...I go Andrews.

 

[Lamarvelous]

I figured.
The risk either way is a win/win.
I think the shallow TE pool favors Andrews verses the vast and productive WR pool.

FWIW, I don't think the TE pool is that shallow this year. But yeah, the WR depth seems to be unreal. I agree that Andrews is the choice. He has top 3 at his position as a big chunk of his range of outcomes, imo.

 

[Lamarvelous]

Andrews only played about 41% of snaps last year, guys. That's going to go up with Hurst out of the picture. When he was in, other teams knew that he was probably getting the ball thrown his way (22% target share with 6.5 targets per game). He might be a candidate for efficiency regression, but with an expected uptick in targets/snaps I'm not sure an efficiency regression matters that much.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I think you could easily say the opposite though, that's why this is tough.

Andrews is Lamar's #1 and relied on him most...TD's sure - that could change but production should stay constant.

In the last 12 games, Brown was targeted 5 times or less in every game except one. 48% of his yards came in the first 3 games of the season. He was nothing special even for a late round pick. Now he did perform in the playoff game which kinda leaves us saying...why didn't he do this more often? A rookie sure but he seems like a one trick pony and that's playing 22% of his snaps at the slot. The one thing that made Brown's numbers look better and worth a late round pick was his touchdowns. I would say it's more likely he doesn't get those 7 TD's than Andrews gets right around 10 TD's tbh.

BUT it seemed like at times Andrews was inconsistent too...I don't trust this Ravens offense to have even near the success they did last year through the air. I think we could see both of them drop off but with so much depth at WR and TE pretty scarce I would lean Andrews. It's hard to pass up an athletic TE at 6'5" 260. The Ravens have some talented WR's...Boykin, Duvernay (the rookie I think is gonna be a stud) and Brown could get lost. If Andrews was an earlier pick I think this would be tougher but with both being 15+ round picks...I go Andrews.

yes... this isn’t a no brainer, that’s for sure.

last year was last year though... I would say the risk lies in Brown’s ability to stay on the field, not a reduction in production. He will have more than 70 targets. 100, easily (again, if healthy).

Lots of TE’s that can do what Andrews did (he was one of those last year). And a lot less taken in the draft. Meaning Andrews falls back into the crowd.

But touché... Brown could be a useless stain more easily than Andrews will bust.

 

[femurov]

I would go with Andrews.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Andrews only played about 41% of snaps last year, guys. That's going to go up with Hurst out of the picture. When he was in, other teams knew that he was probably getting the ball thrown his way (22% target share with 6.5 targets per game). He might be a candidate for efficiency regression, but with an expected uptick in targets/snaps I'm not sure an efficiency regression matters that much.

Yeah I see it the same. More snaps, more targets and while his efficiency drops it will more then be made up in increased work.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I love the debate here...

I have changed my mind a few times already...

Andrews, is a top 5 TE preseason... But I like some low end TEs a lot this season... But I feel like Andrews is the SAFER keep...

Brown, has the upside play... Especially since he wont be my WR1 or WR2... and might not even make it to my WR3... But keeping him, I would at least have a WR3 of his caliber... at the minimum... That is kind of tempting...

When you only start one TE, in a 10 team league, I can get good TEs late... without really sacrificing anything... so I don't fear letting him go...


and Brown I really do think has good upside... don't think he has elite WR2 upside...

I think I want to hear more from @Lamarvelous, our resident Ravens fan, to enlighten me more...


I want these questions answered...

Who has bigger Upside??

Who is more likely to be the Ravens top pass catcher??

Who is more likely to score more TDs??

What is more likely, Andrews to be a top 5 TE, or Brown to be a top 25 Receiver??

 

[averagejoe]

I want these questions answered...

Who has bigger Upside??

Who is more likely to be the Ravens top pass catcher??

Who is more likely to score more TDs??

What is more likely, Andrews to be a top 5 TE, or Brown to be a top 25 Receiver??

I look at it this way, your Milkyness...

Usually it takes a few years for a TE to develop. Some of the best prospects cannot adapt to the intricacies and various nuances of the NFL TE position.
Andrews edged out Kelce (by 4 points in standard leagues) as the 2nd-best fantasy TE last year in only his second season.
And you want to mess with that?
Maybe he does regress a little as Marv suggested?
But look at his competition:
Ertz is an injury concern. Hooper changed teams. Henry changed QB. Waller has rookie WR to contend with.

Hear me now and believe me later, the fact that Andrews is on the Ravens and Harbaugh is not going anywhere and is fairly consistent only strengthens Andrews' value in my opinion.
If you wait on a TE, the ceiling may seem comparable to Andrews', the intangibles can certainly mess with that potential.

Then there's Brown.
The lead WR on a run-first team.
Sorry, while I agree the potential is there, Brown's value is in the range of Landry, Edelman, Gallup, Marvin Jones, Cooks and Diontae Johnson.
Passing on Brown leaves you with some decent options.

Can't necessarily say that about Andrews.

 

[SteelersPride]

Andrews he’s obvious regression due to his touchdown numbers. Plus them having healthy young wr. But I’ve never been high on brown