MBBRL Suicide "B" Draft Grades by the Bandit

[broncosmitty]

Not Dontrelle. I have always enjoyed watching Anibel pitch.

He was always a guy I looked at for two start weeks and nice matchups. Never knew he was so talented.(Hadnt seen much of him first hand, just snippets and highlights.) And definitely didn't expect the success he's had coming from the NL.

 

[TREFF]

On the whole BPA thing.... Do you guys simply leave certain players off your lists altogether. I do in general in fantasy. Even more so in the two Suicides I've done. Some of the confidence in players I just don't see. (This could be on account of numerous reasons. My ignorance being an obvious one.)And to me, missing out on a player and selecting another, who performs/produces less, would not be as frustrating as drafting a player I didn't want, based on BPA, then having them underperform the player I could have reached for. (That was so many commas I've confused myself.)

Oddly enough. . The first thing I do with my cheat sheets on Draft day is black out the guys I want nothing to do with. So while I subscribe to the best player available theory in general, there are exceptions. But the way I look at it, I blacked them out because they aren't, imho, the BPA, under any circumstances, so I'm still in compliance

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Oddly enough. . The first thing I do with my cheat sheets on Draft day is black out the guys I want nothing to do with. So while I subscribe to the best player available theory in general, there are exceptions. But the way I look at it, I blacked them out because they aren't, imho, the BPA, under any circumstances, so I'm still in compliance

but thats my point, BPA that is defined by ADP is not neccessarily BPA, so isnt your BPA different than other BPA?? Then the best you can do is just play the who do you want and will he be around during your next pick game!!!

 

[Xponentialchaos]

The only reach, imo, is when you select a guy that would have been available in the following round. If you think a certain player is going to breakout, then go get him even if it's a bit early. Be mindful of the ADP, but don't be afraid to go against it.

 

[leftypower]

Oddly enough. . The first thing I do with my cheat sheets on Draft day is black out the guys I want nothing to do with. So while I subscribe to the best player available theory in general, there are exceptions. But the way I look at it, I blacked them out because they aren't, imho, the BPA, under any circumstances, so I'm still in compliance

I think to a certain extent most people do pretty much the same thing, either consciously or unconsciously. We all have 'those guys' we just don't want (McFadden has always been one of mine) and will bypass them for someone who may be lower 'ranked'. Right now, according to many expert ranks, Jimmy Graham is a first or second rounder and if that's where he goes, I will never own him in a league. Not that I don't think he is the best at his position, just that I can get an RB, WR or QB that will likely benefit my team more, then worry over a TE much later. Now if he should somehow fall to say the 4th rd then, yes I may take a shot.
I personally use a Lefty derived combination of VBD and BPA, ADP is not a prime consideration other than it is loosely factored in my overall list from rankings. If you go blindly by any list you are probably setting yourself up for failure since as the draft progresses you have to consider your team needs and league format. Just as an example you draft Peyton in the second rd, then somehow Rodgers is still there in the 5th, are you going to draft him even though his ADP is rd 3 ? Hopefully your answer is no.
Anyway, the point is YOUR BPA should be based upon what is best for your team. It has to be somewhat dynamic - it's not just a list to blindly follow.

 

[TREFF]

Well yea exactly. . Is always YOUR BPA, and to me that isn't adp, or Evan Silva, or Joe Blow from ESPN or wherever. .its your BPA.. but along with that going by your BPA is better than some strict positional strategy. I probably worded that incorrectly to start with.

 

[Bandit]

but thats my point, BPA that is defined by ADP is not neccessarily BPA, so isnt your BPA different than other BPA?? Then the best you can do is just play the who do you want and will he be around during your next pick game!!!

I don't think anybody would base their list solely on ADP, it's just a factor we use to know if a guy that you have at the top of your list might still be there the next round. For instance let's say I am up in the 3rd round with the 30th pick and I have gone RB, RB in the first two rounds. I am going to draft a wide receiver and my list of available guys is: #27 Percy Harvin (ADP 48), #30 Victor Cruz (ADP 41), #32 Larry Fitzgerald (ADP 33). Even though Percy Harvin and Victor Cruz are higher on my list, I am going to draft Larry Fitzgerald and hope that either Harvin or Cruz are there with the 43rd pick since that is more in line with their average draft position. Is that risking that I might not get Harvin even though I have him ranked higher? Yes, but that's a chance I'm willing to take in that case.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I don't think anybody would base their list solely on ADP, it's just a factor we use to know if a guy that you have at the top of your list might still be there the next round. For instance let's say I am up in the 3rd round with the 30th pick and I have gone RB, RB in the first two rounds. I am going to draft a wide receiver and my list of available guys is: #27 Percy Harvin (ADP 48), #30 Victor Cruz (ADP 41), #32 Larry Fitzgerald (ADP 33). Even though Percy Harvin and Victor Cruz are higher on my list, I am going to draft Larry Fitzgerald and hope that either Harvin or Cruz are there with the 43rd pick since that is more in line with their average draft position. Is that risking that I might not get Harvin even though I have him ranked higher? Yes, but that's a chance I'm willing to take in that case.

See, If I was in that exact scenario that you give I would pick Victor Cruz, since he should be taken before I go again... I understand what you are saying, but aren't you also handcuffing yourself, forcing yourself to draft a WR in the 4th round by doing this??

 

[Bandit]

See, If I was in that exact scenario that you give I would pick Victor Cruz, since he should be taken before I go again... I understand what you are saying, but aren't you also handcuffing yourself, forcing yourself to draft a WR in the 4th round by doing this??

I used that as an example only, but no it doesn't force you to draft a WR in round 4, you will only do that if Harvin is still at the top of your list. I just used wide receivers because it was going to be too complicated to include the other positions. The short version for value based drafting is this: you should never be married to selecting a position of even a particular player in any particular round, you should take the best player available. If you look at my suicide draft, I went RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB because the guys I drafted at the time were the best value. I didn't panic because I didn't have a QB or TE I went with the best available. Now granted that only works to a certain extent as there will come a time when you have to draft a quarterback and tight end preferable before everybody starts drafting their backups for those positions.

Here's an example of VBD: If I want Jimmy Graham and I have the 3rd pick in the draft, I'm not going to draft him there just because I know there's no chance he will be there when it comes back to me in the 2nd round because the preceived value of drafting Lesean Mccoy with 3rd pick and then say Julius Thomas with the 27th pick is more than drafting Jimmy Graham with the 3rd pick and getting Zac Stacy with the 27th pick. Using the projections for the season on ESPN Lesean Mccoy is projected at 242 pts for the season and Zac Stacy is projected at 182 pts which is a net gain of 60 pts. Jimmy Graham is projected at 189 pts and Julius Thomas is projected at 164 pts which is a net loss of 25 pts. So if I go Mccoy/Thomas I am gaining 35 points for the season on drafting Graham/Stacy.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I used that as an example only, but no it doesn't force you to draft a WR in round 4, you will only do that if Harvin is still at the top of your list. I just used wide receivers because it was going to be too complicated to include the other positions. The short version for value based drafting is this: you should never be married to selecting a position of even a particular player in any particular round, you should take the best player available. If you look at my suicide draft, I went RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB because the guys I drafted at the time were the best value. I didn't panic because I didn't have a QB or TE I went with the best available. Now granted that only works to a certain extent as there will come a time when you have to draft a quarterback and tight end preferable before everybody starts drafting their backups for those positions.

Here's an example of VBD: If I want Jimmy Graham and I have the 3rd pick in the draft, I'm not going to draft him there just because I know there's no chance he will be there when it comes back to me in the 2nd round because the preceived value of drafting Lesean Mccoy with 3rd pick and then say Julius Thomas with the 27th pick is more than drafting Jimmy Graham with the 3rd pick and getting Zac Stacy with the 27th pick. Using the projections for the season on ESPN Lesean Mccoy is projected at 242 pts for the season and Zac Stacy is projected at 182 pts which is a net gain of 60 pts. Jimmy Graham is projected at 189 pts and Julius Thomas is projected at 164 pts which is a net loss of 25 pts. So if I go Mccoy/Thomas I am gaining 35 points for the season on drafting Graham/Stacy.

That's it, I am making a new thread for this... It needs a thread to itself anyway!!!

 

[leftypower]

Well yea exactly. . Is always YOUR BPA, and to me that isn't adp, or Evan Silva, or Joe Blow from ESPN or wherever. .its your BPA.. but along with that going by your BPA is better than some strict positional strategy. I probably worded that incorrectly to start with.

Sorry Treff since I quoted you it appears I was making a point to you - - - not the case, you know what you're doing. Just added my thoughts on the topic in general.

 

[TREFF]

Sorry Treff since I quoted you it appears I was making a point to you - - - not the case, you know what you're doing. Just added my thoughts on the topic in general.

And I was saying you said it much better than I

 

[bksballer89]

i did good

 

[Barilko]

Wicked stuff, Canes! Can't wait for your in-season recaps!

clapclap:

 

[SteelersPride]

i wonder how close his predictions come to reality

 

[MilkSpiller22]

i wonder how close his predictions come to reality

Chances are not close at all. It's hard to predict the unpredictable and every season has a lot of that. Whether it is injuries, random breakouts, random busts.