Mariners just got Doug Fisted again

[seahawksfan234]

Please, someone try to explain the logic of this trade, because I absolutely fail to understand it whatsoever. Trade r*pe is an understatement here.

The trade can be broken down in two elements:

Wade Miley v. Roenis Elias:
I am biased towards Roenis Elias, so I'll try to set that aside in this evaluation.

Age:
Elias: 27
Miley: 29
Winner: Elias by a slim margin

Cost:
Elias: Not eligible for arbitration until 2018 I believe
Miley: $15m owed over 2016-2017
Winner: Elias is substantially cheaper and under team control longer

Previous performance:
Elias: 3.97 ERA over the past two years (49 starts)
Miley: 4.40 ERA over the past two years (65 starts)
Winner: Elias by a solid margin

Projected future performance:
Elias: This is where people will differ with me, I believe Elias will continue pitching at this level, but unlikely to get much better with a higher chance of regression than improving.
Miley: Could improve in a pitchers park, but I find it highly unlikely he does much better than Elias.
Winner: Split

Verdict: This part of the trade really depends on what you think of Elias v. Miley. Based on Elias' high possibility of regression versus Miley being a more consistent option, I would personally take Elias but I could see how one would prefer Miley. Either way, neither one is significantly better than the other.

Carson Smith v. Jonathan Aro
This one is not even close and I'm not even going to go in depth as I did with Elias v. Miley. Carson looks like he could be a dominant reliever, whereas Jonathan Aro looks like he could be DFA'd any day now. The only way to justify Carson Smith for Jonathan Aro is if the Mariners were receiving a very substantial return on what they received for Elias.

Verdict: Carson by a ridiculously wide margin, not even fucking close and anyone who would argue otherwise is an idiot.

What the fuck was Dipoto thinking? Unless Miley somehow turns into an ace overnight and Aro somehow becomes a 2.00 ERA type pitcher, this pitcher will be a massive failure and there is nothing to indicate the previous two points will happen.

 

[unlvmariners]

Yup, I do not like what the DiP is doing. I cannot believe he traded Carson Smith, talk about a reliever with massive upside. What is he thinking? This trade easily makes the team worse. Bullpen takes a huge loss for the upcoming season and the future. Miley isn't even worth Elias imo when you factor in the money. I am really disappointed with this trade. Absolute failure by DiP.

From the outside looking in DiP doesn't look like he has a fucking clue on how to value his players or the players he is trading for he assigns massive value to players he has history with regardless of talent (Iannetta). He has gotten taken on a lot of trades. (the Tampa Bay and Benoit trades have been my favorites). The guy seems to be making moves just to make moves and not improve the roster. Jerry DiPoto is spinning his wheels with the roster going in circles not really improving. I hope he gets his shit together.

 

[NWinAZ]

Jerry DiPoto is spinning his wheels with the roster going in circles not really improving. I hope he gets his shit together.

That is why he is The Hamster GM.

 

[cezero]

WFB has spoken

 

[SeattleCoug]

WFB has spoken

This deserved something. Not sure what so I gave it a rainbow.

 

[unlvmariners]

That is why he is The Hamster GM.

yup and its not at all how I expected him to be

 

[pistlpete]

This was stupid. Should have resigned Kuma. 15m for three years well within reasonable, particularly with what he's given us. Smith will be an elite pitcher, already is. Elias good as well. Smith a 2.31 ERA last year and 2.07 career. Dipoto got taken by Dombrowski.

 

[Mariners_44]

Dipoto has literally done exactly what Pete and John did. Got rid of guys that don't fit his system no matter the talent, and in return got his guys no matter the talent that we think we just got back. This is so hard to watch considering our last 15 years, but we need to just wait for the season to start with all of his guys. I don't think anyone on here would cry over Carson Smith if we are playing in October, but understandable right now.

 

[NWinAZ]

I truly woke up this morning expecting to read that he traded Cruz for one of the kids from Save By The Bell. I guess the day is still early.

 

[Davis_Mike]

Wade Miley is a durable workhorse innings eater. The guy will give you a sub 4.00 era & 200 innings while getting a lot of ground balls. A solid #3 or #4 SP. He is better than his 2014 & 2015 number suggest. In 2014, he was victim of a poor BP in AZ which allowed a lot of inherited runners of to score. In 2015, he was just awful in April, adjusting to the AL. After that, he was solid.

Personally, I think 2013 is the version of Miley is his true self. An ERA in the mid threes while pitching 200 innings. Basically a 2-3 war SP.

 

[mcnabb7542]

Total head scratcher, I think he's pulling the trigger to much now...

 

[Cloud]

Do not like the this trade. Miley is average at best and losing Smith hurts, if youre gonna trade like this why not just keep the pieces?

Dipoto is running out of chips to trade at this point

 

[blstoker]

Maybe the answer isn't in the stats, per se. DiPoto could see a left handed innings eaters who pitched well in a pitcher friendly park, and sees our #2 starter.

Hernandez
Miley
Walker
Paxton
Karns

Could be how he sees the rotation, and Elias was a guy he felt wouldn't fare as well in Boston (if he made the team at all) and so Smith was what was needed to get Miley...

Not defending, just trying to make sense is all.

 

[PolarVortex]

Wade Miley is a durable workhorse innings eater. The guy will give you a sub 4.00 era & 200 innings while getting a lot of ground balls. .

You make it sound like it is routine for him. Where the hell did you get that idea? He's done both in one season exactly one time in four full seasons. Do the math. There is a 25% chance he does both in any given season.

 

[chappee11]

Please, someone try to explain the logic of this trade, because I absolutely fail to understand it whatsoever. Trade r*pe is an understatement here.

The trade can be broken down in two elements:

Wade Miley v. Roenis Elias:
I am biased towards Roenis Elias, so I'll try to set that aside in this evaluation.

Age:
Elias: 27
Miley: 29
Winner: Elias by a slim margin

Cost:
Elias: Not eligible for arbitration until 2018 I believe
Miley: $15m owed over 2016-2017
Winner: Elias is substantially cheaper and under team control longer

Previous performance:
Elias: 3.97 ERA over the past two years (49 starts)
Miley: 4.40 ERA over the past two years (65 starts)
Winner: Elias by a solid margin

Projected future performance:
Elias: This is where people will differ with me, I believe Elias will continue pitching at this level, but unlikely to get much better with a higher chance of regression than improving.
Miley: Could improve in a pitchers park, but I find it highly unlikely he does much better than Elias.
Winner: Split

Verdict: This part of the trade really depends on what you think of Elias v. Miley. Based on Elias' high possibility of regression versus Miley being a more consistent option, I would personally take Elias but I could see how one would prefer Miley. Either way, neither one is significantly better than the other.

Carson Smith v. Jonathan Aro
This one is not even close and I'm not even going to go in depth as I did with Elias v. Miley. Carson looks like he could be a dominant reliever, whereas Jonathan Aro looks like he could be DFA'd any day now. The only way to justify Carson Smith for Jonathan Aro is if the Mariners were receiving a very substantial return on what they received for Elias.

Verdict: Carson by a ridiculously wide margin, not even fucking close and anyone who would argue otherwise is an idiot.

What the fuck was Dipoto thinking? Unless Miley somehow turns into an ace overnight and Aro somehow becomes a 2.00 ERA type pitcher, this pitcher will be a massive failure and there is nothing to indicate the previous two points will happen.

I'm here to talk you off the ledge. This reporter doesn't like it for the Red Sox:
Red Sox traded away wrong guy in Wade Miley - The Boston Globe

 

[PolarVortex]

I'm here to talk you off the ledge. This reporter doesn't like it for the Red Sox:
Red Sox traded away wrong guy in Wade Miley - The Boston Globe

Boston reporters are dumbasses. And Brady fucking sucks.

 

[chappee11]

Boston reporters are dumbasses. And Brady fucking sucks.

This writer, Nick Cafardo, is a true moron. He actually blocked me on Twitter for telling him as much, I am happy to report.

 

[PolarVortex]

This writer, Nick Cafardo, is a true moron. He actually blocked me on Twitter for telling him as much, I am happy to report.

View attachment 63024

LOL. Looks like someone Jeter would like to date. Has he gotten one of Derek's 'morning after' gift baskets?
I noticed that Rock is hiding from the sports forums the last couple of days. I can't begin to imagine why.

 

[phredmojo]

 

[seahawksfan234]

Dipoto has literally done exactly what Pete and John did. Got rid of guys that don't fit his system no matter the talent, and in return got his guys no matter the talent that we think we just got back. This is so hard to watch considering our last 15 years, but we need to just wait for the season to start with all of his guys. I don't think anyone on here would cry over Carson Smith if we are playing in October, but understandable right now.

Building an elite NFL team and an elite MLB team are two completely different games.

I see what you're saying, but in the process of shipping out the old guys, I'd like to see at least a similar amount of value exchanging hands. The first few trades he made, getting Martin in particular, a similar amount of talent swapped hands. With this trade and the Trumbo trade, the other team received a significant amount more of talent than the Mariners received.