LT Options

[chf]

Jake Long NFL Football Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

This is why teams don't always just give pro bowl LTs a lot of money just because they used to be good, but also happen to be injury prone. Long had only had injury issues for 2 years, and he hit the open market @ 29 years of age - 4x pro bowler and 1x all pro - and received a whopping $1.5 miilion. Okung has shown that he's just one play away from being an expensive bench warmer.

No one knows how the situation will play itself out, we'll just have to see. As far as having an agent is concerned, not only are agents more experienced at negotiating - and so just assuming that he could get what they would get him isn't a guarantee - but there is a lot more to being an agent than just negotiating contracts.
Just assuming that because someone does something on your behalf doesn't mean that it is automatic that you can do it just as well for yourself. Again, time will only tell.

Sure, and my supposition depends on his current injury not being problematic. ANY player is one play away from out of the league.

I guess we'll see what happens with the contract or lack of one.

The agent deal, again, I agree an agent is going to be able to get him MORE. I disagree with how much LESS he'll get as his own agent. Part of that is simple supply and demand. If he was a running back, I'd say he's nuts.

LT's in today's league. Not going to make a huge difference, imo.

 

[dude82]

Don't you think plan B and C includes missing the playoffs?

Someone earlier in the thread posted what the Seahawks record is without Okung when he's had to sit due to injury over the past few years; and while there could be a number of unrelated reasons why their record is what it is when he's been out, given the uncertainty related to his health seemingly every year, I don't necessarily think it would hurt the offensive line much to get someone in there who has a better track record when it comes to staying healthy. It's the uncertainty and constant shuffling of players that has killed this offensive line over the past decade and as talented as Okung is, he's not doing the team any good when he's out with an injury. If he asks for too much, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Seahawks favor physical stability over physical talent.

 

[jakedog56]

History has shown that Okung will miss games at the rate of about 25% per year. If anything, this number will probably go up, not down.

So maybe you would base your contract offer on 12 games per year?

I would say that a healthy Okung with no previous injury issues is probably looking at $10-12 million per year. Before his current surgery, I would estimate that he would have gotten offers in the $7-8 million a year range based on his injury history. Now, I think that a 1 year- $6 million a year offer is reasonable.

The timing of his injury really plays to the Seahawk's favor. By the time anyone can reasonably speculate on his recovery status free agency will already be 10-12 weeks along.

The bad side is that the LT market is pretty dry. People talking about getting Glenn (top rated FA LT) but that is just ridiculous. There is no way that we can compete with the money that he is going to get. Even getting Penn (34 years old in November) would be an unreasonable expectation when you look at the money out there. Someone might decide to roll the dice and sign Okung to a bigger deal, in which case we have no recourse and have to look at the draft and journeyman options to fill the void.

 

[Uhsplit]

Don't you think plan B and C includes missing the playoffs?

Of course not.
Let me ask you this. For whatever reason, the team has been highly effective when Okung is on the bench. 12-2 IIRC over the last 4 years.
Why do they do so well when RO is out?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Of course not.
Let me ask you this. For whatever reason, the team has been highly effective when Okung is on the bench. 12-2 IIRC over the last 4 years.
Why do they do so well when RO is out?

Well lets see he was out of the Cowboy game and yes I thought the OL played well. The Seahawks wisely rolled Wilson away from Hardy all game long and that worked out well. The other game was home against the Rams and that was a really bad game for the OL. Now the Rams do have a awesome DL, but Quinn was out that game and they had a backup starting for him ( William Hayes ) 3 sacks from a backup that rarely sees the field. Not so good. Baily started for Okung both times. I don't look back further then this season, because the OL had different personnel in the past.

I'm going to try to quit worrying about and show some faith in the front office. They'll do some thing about it. Just wasn't too pleased with what they came up last couple of years for the OL.

2015
Terry Poole (history)
Mark Glowinski Didn't see the field often, but looked good when given the chance. Might be Sweezy
replacement .
Kristjan Sokoli No idea since he didn't play in the regular season at all.

Hard to say the Seahawks improved the OL with this group. Maybe Glowinski and Sokoli develope.

2014
Justin Britt He was drafted to be a RT, but that idea got shelved for obvious reasons. Seahawks have been trying hard to make him a serviceable LG , hasn't seemed to be working however.

Garrett Scott Was found to have a medical problem after the draft and never played.


Not much here either.




These last two years having scratching my head when it comes to OL and last season the OL was awful the first half of the season and though they looked better in the second half of the season it was hard to say if the OL improved or did the easy schedule made the difference. Now three starter are free agents. Seems I'm in the minority here about resigning Okung ( unless he comes cheap ). What about Sweezy and Lewis ? They'll be much cheaper, but also much easier to replace....I think, but is it wise to reshuffle the OL again? I'm not up on college players, especially OL, but really don't like what I've been hearing about the quality of OL coming out of college as of late, that's is the biggest reason I want to hold on to Okung, that and the quality of the OL drafted by the Seahawks.

 

[Uhsplit]

On Lewis, I think we try to sign him for a team friendly contract but if that doesn't work how about a 2nd round tender offer? Could he pass through that and remain a Seahawk for about $2.4M next year? My guess is a 1st round tender is too high a pick and the costs associated with that might be prohibitive.
I hope Sweezy isn't too expensive as I like his mauler attitude and reliability. $4.5-$5M annually. If we can secure Sweezy and retain Lewis, we have only 1 spot on the OL to concern ourselves with. My hope is that Britt becomes the weakest link on the OL and if we have a new LT, we will have to live through his hopeful growth. We will know a lot more in 5-6 weeks.
Here is an idea. Aggressively go after Sowell from Az. He is a swingman backing up both T spots for the Cards. Massie is a UFA and they don't have lots of cap room going into 2016. Resign Bailey, let Sowell and a draft pick or 2 battle it out.
When you can weaken an opponent and strengthen your team at the same time it's a double.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Don't you think plan B and C includes missing the playoffs?

Not at all my friend. Still of FA, the draft and June 1st cuts.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

OK new question, what helps the Seahawks more? A injury plague LT who talented and is in short supply or a TE who is also most like a top WR but coming off a injury that takes a couple of years to recover from, if at all ? Just asking because I've been for bring Jimmy back, but after reading about just how bad this injury is and the need at OL, the cap space etc. I'm reconsidering.

 

[blstoker]

For whatever reason, the team has been highly effective when Okung is on the bench. 12-2 IIRC over the last 4 years.
Why do they do so well when RO is out?

Those numbers are a smidge misleading, I should know - I looked them up. Here - let's look at them differently.

2013: (Rec, PY/G, RY/G, Avg Scoring Defense, Avg Total Defense, Avg Passing Defense, Avg Running Defense, independent opponents winning percentage)
W - 9-2 205.7, 127.8, 10.1, 9.5, 12.0, 9.0, 67%
WO - 7-1 208.5, 161.5, 18.1, 16.6, 15.4, 19.3, 40%

2014:
W - 12-5 201.7, 163.2, 14.8, 13.9, 14.7, 15.5, 57.2%
WO - 2-0 253.0, 208.0, 18.5, 22.5, 22.5, 17.5, 45.2%

2015:
W - 9-6 238.1, 141.7, 13.3, 15.9, 15.7, 16.2. 55.2%
WO - 2-1 224.7, 105.7, 12.0, 15.0, 12.0, 16.0, 51.1%

Last 3 Overall:
W - 30-13, 215.4, 146.6, 13.1, 13.4, 14.3, 14.1, 59.8%
WO - 11-2, 219.1, 155.8, 16.8, 17.2, 15.7, 18.2, 43.4%


What this long winded statistical analysis shows is that the Seahawks do slightly better statistically without Okung, but they have played much tougher opponents when Okung has played.

 

[Uhsplit]

Those numbers are a smidge misleading, I should know - I looked them up. Here - let's look at them differently.

2013: (Rec, PY/G, RY/G, Avg Scoring Defense, Avg Total Defense, Avg Passing Defense, Avg Running Defense, independent opponents winning percentage)
W - 9-2 205.7, 127.8, 10.1, 9.5, 12.0, 9.0, 67%
WO - 7-1 208.5, 161.5, 18.1, 16.6, 15.4, 19.3, 40%

2014:
W - 12-5 201.7, 163.2, 14.8, 13.9, 14.7, 15.5, 57.2%
WO - 2-0 253.0, 208.0, 18.5, 22.5, 22.5, 17.5, 45.2%

2015:
W - 9-6 238.1, 141.7, 13.3, 15.9, 15.7, 16.2. 55.2%
WO - 2-1 224.7, 105.7, 12.0, 15.0, 12.0, 16.0, 51.1%

Last 3 Overall:
W - 30-13, 215.4, 146.6, 13.1, 13.4, 14.3, 14.1, 59.8%
WO - 11-2, 219.1, 155.8, 16.8, 17.2, 15.7, 18.2, 43.4%


What this long winded statistical analysis shows is that the Seahawks do slightly better statistically without Okung, but they have played much tougher opponents when Okung has played.

bi, interesting analysis and thanks for taking the time. Going back to Russell Wilson's 1st year (2012) RO missed one game that year against a 7-9 Dallas team. That's makes his back up 12-2 over the last 4 years.
Granted, the backups did in fact play against lessor team competition, but still went a whopping 12-2 without Okung. I am not saying that the backups are better in any regard than the starter, I am saying all is not lost with Okung being out of our starting lineup.

 

[Uhsplit]

OK new question, what helps the Seahawks more? A injury plague LT who talented and is in short supply or a TE who is also most like a top WR but coming off a injury that takes a couple of years to recover from, if at all ? Just asking because I've been for bring Jimmy back, but after reading about just how bad this injury is and the need at OL, the cap space etc. I'm reconsidering.

Tough question. From what I understand about Pete, he values younger players because they are more reliable/healthy than guys that have been banged around for years.
If I had to choose, Graham is a top 3? TE. Okung I would guess as about average when considering missed games and penalties. It is easier to replace a TE, but finding top tier talent is the hard part. If both can play in game 1 of next year, I go for the top tier talent (TE) and hope to coach up a youngster at LT.
Now, if our QB was either Manning, or Brady as examples, I might take the LT because they have no mobility nor escape ability.

 

[blstoker]

bi, interesting analysis and thanks for taking the time. Going back to Russell Wilson's 1st year (2012) RO missed one game that year against a 7-9 Dallas team. That's makes his back up 12-2 over the last 4 years.
Granted, the backups did in fact play against lessor team competition, but still went a whopping 12-2 without Okung. I am not saying that the backups are better in any regard than the starter, I am saying all is not lost with Okung being out of our starting lineup.

I can agree with that. I don't mind bringing him back at the right price - but, he has been, and would be, our best lineman.

Yes, they are 12-2 since 2012 in games Okung has missed - and I know a win is a win, but is 85% win percentage against teams that average 10 losses a year better than 70% against teams that average 10 wins a year? Of the 14 games Okung has missed - Seattle has played only 3 of those games against teams with winning records, and 6 against teams who won 25% or less of their games.

 

[dude82]

I can agree with that. I don't mind bringing him back at the right price - but, he has been, and would be, our best lineman.

Yes, they are 12-2 since 2012 in games Okung has missed - and I know a win is a win, but is 85% win percentage against teams that average 10 losses a year better than 70% against teams that average 10 wins a year? Of the 14 games Okung has missed - Seattle has played only 3 of those games against teams with winning records, and 6 against teams who won 25% or less of their games.

Here's where it gets even more complicated... Of the overall bad teams we've faced without Okung in the lineup, how many have had bad defensive lines/a bad pass rush? At the same time, of the overall good teams we've faced with Okung in the lineup, how many have had good defensive lines/a good pass rush? You can have a bad team overall and still have one unit that is good and vice versa. You have to go more in-depth with these things than just looking at a team's overall record. Keep in mind, too, that we're only counting the 14 games that Okung missed completely. There were other instances where he started, but only played part of a game or half of a game.

Just to give you an example of what I mean about a team's record being deceiving when it comes to evaluating how individual players did vs. how their replacements did, the 1992 Seahawks obviously had a terrible record, but that was largely thanks to one of the worst offenses in the history of the NFL. Their overall defense that year was mediocre, but their pass defense was top 5 in the league and they ended up having the NFL Defensive Player of the Year that year in Tez. If you were playing on an offensive line against the Seahawks that year, you were probably going to have a bad day whether you were a starter or a backup.

I'm sure Schneider and Carroll (and/or their staffs) will go over the film of the games that Okung played in and the ones he didn't, look at the quality of the defensive line/pass rush they had to face in both cases and decide based on that analysis whether it would be worth it to move on from Okung or not and at which financial point it becomes more worth it to cut bait and look elsewhere than keep him.

 

[blstoker]

Just to give you an example of what I mean about a team's record being deceiving when it comes to evaluating how individual players did vs. how their replacements did, the 1992 Seahawks obviously had a terrible record, but that was largely thanks to one of the worst offenses in the history of the NFL. Their overall defense that year was mediocre, but their pass defense was top 5 in the league and they ended up having the NFL Defensive Player of the Year that year in Tez. If you were playing on an offensive line against the Seahawks that year, you were probably going to have a bad day whether you were a starter or a backup.

Yes, there are cases where a defense is better than their record because the offense is just so horrible that they can't score enough to even make up for an opponent who is shut down. But that hasn't been the case for the Seahawks opponents the last 4 years, with the exception of maybe St. Louis.

Okung has faced nearly every tough defensive line the Seahawks have faced - and when he has missed against top DLines, it hasn't always been pretty for the Seahawks. Though rating a top DL is mostly subjective, and it depends on what people want to believe the top DLs are.

On a different note - here is how often we've played with and without Okung vs. top 10 defenses.

Top 10 Overall Defenses:
With - 20 of 60 - 33.3%
W/O - 3 of 14 - 21.4%

Top 10 Passing Defenses:
With - 23 of 60 - 38.3%
W/O - 3 of 14 - 21.4%

Top 10 Running Defenses:
With - 20 of 60 - 33.3%
W/O - 3 of 14 - 21.4%

Top 10 sacking defense:
With - 26 of 60 - 43.3%
W/O - 2 of 14 - 14.3%

 

[Uhsplit]

If we are going that in depth, then we should back burner the team D stats and narrow it down to who was the RDE in those 14 games.

 

[dude82]

If we are going that in depth, then we should back burner the team D stats and narrow it down to who was the RDE in those 14 games.

I think Schneider and Carroll will go as in-depth as they can go to make this decision.

 

[blstoker]

If we are going that in depth, then we should back burner the team D stats and narrow it down to who was the RDE in those 14 games.

OK.These are the starting RDE (ROLB 3-4) for each game since 2012, according to pro-football-reference. Stats at end are how many tackles (T) and sacks (S) those players got during the games played.

2012
Sam Acho
DeMarcus Ware - No Okung
Clay Matthews
Robert Quinn
Charles Johnson
Chandler Jones
Aldon Smith
kyle Vanden Bosch
Jared Allen
Calvin Pace
Cameron Wake
Julius Peppers
Sam Acho
Kyle Moore
Aldon Smith
Robert Quinn
Stephen Bowen
John Abraham
Russell - 56 T 7.5 S
Other - 8 T 0 S

2013
Greg Hardy
Aldon Smith
Jason Babin- No Okung
Whitney Merilus- No Okung
Robert Mathis- No Okung
Ropati Pitoiitua- No Okung
john Abraham- No Okung
Robert Quinn- No Okung
Adrian Clayborn- No Okung
Osi Umenyora- No Okung
Jared Allen
Junior Gallette
Aldon Smith
Mathias Kiwanuka
john Abraham
Robert Quinn
Junior Gallette
Aldon Smith
Sean Phillips
Russell - 38 T 5 S
Other - 35 T 11.5 S

2014
Julius Peppers
Dwight Freeney
Demarcus Ware
Brian Orakpo
Jeremy Mincey
Robert Quinn
Wes Horton
CJ Wilson- No Okung
Jason Pierre-Paul
Tamba Hali
Alex Okafor
Aldon Smith
Trent Cole
Aldon Smith
Alex Okafor- No Okung
Robert Quinn
Wes Horton
Mike Daniels
Chandler Jones
Russell - 70 T 6 S
Other - 8 T 1 S

2015
Robert Quinn
Mike Neal
Jared Allen
jason Jones
Michael Johnson
Wes Horton
Ahmad Brooks
Greg Hardy- No Okung
Alex Okafor
Ahmad Brooks
Jarvis Jones
Everson Griffin
Elvis Dumervil
Randy Starks
Eugene Sims- No Okung
Dwight Freeney- No Okung
Everson Griffin
Jared Allen
Russell - 41 T 7.5 S
Other - 10 T 1.5 S

Overall (averaged to 16 games)
Russell - 55 T 7 S
Other - 70 T 16 S

 

[blstoker]

i'll be honest, I was surprised at the results. I held the opinion that the line played better without Okung, and though the numbers of overall offense tend to tick up a little bit - the numbers for the LT definitely don't improve with Okung out.

 

[Uhsplit]

Thanks for digging that up.
Bottom line, we were 12-2 w/o RO over the last 4 years.
If RO is replaced, that person will get all the reps and attention to detail that a starter would. It is my assumption that person will improve as time goes on instead of getting to play in 14 games over 4 years.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

On Lewis, I think we try to sign him for a team friendly contract but if that doesn't work how about a 2nd round tender offer? Could he pass through that and remain a Seahawk for about $2.4M next year? My guess is a 1st round tender is too high a pick and the costs associated with that might be prohibitive.
I hope Sweezy isn't too expensive as I like his mauler attitude and reliability. $4.5-$5M annually. If we can secure Sweezy and retain Lewis, we have only 1 spot on the OL to concern ourselves with. My hope is that Britt becomes the weakest link on the OL and if we have a new LT, we will have to live through his hopeful growth. We will know a lot more in 5-6 weeks.
Here is an idea. Aggressively go after Sowell from Az. He is a swingman backing up both T spots for the Cards. Massie is a UFA and they don't have lots of cap room going into 2016. Resign Bailey, let Sowell and a draft pick or 2 battle it out.
When you can weaken an opponent and strengthen your team at the same time it's a double.

Not sure about Sweezy myself, don't think he's worth $5 million. Not a pass blocker, but pretty good run blocker. Then theirs the flags, take a look at this.




Mmmm too hard to read. Here's the link Seattle Seahawks - 2015 Penalties - View by Player - NFL Penalty Stats Tracker - List/Statistics/Data of NFL Penalties - 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016