Kovalchuk Nears Deal with the Devil(s)

[pixburgher66]

100!

yeah, especially considering that this is the second thread on the subject...

 

[loki604]

Regarding the price for Kovy, I know what everyone says is true (you're going to overpay in free agency), but I still wouldn't want to see my GM throw 8.5 at Kovy. I don't know...we really haven't seen what he's capable of on a good team for a long stretch, but I just don't put him in the category of others making 8+. I look at someone like Maid Marian who's cap hit is 5.275 (albeit thanks to one of those long ass contracts) and I would much rather pay Marian 7.5 than pay Kovy 8.5.

 

[Darkstone42]

Regarding the price for Kovy, I know what everyone says is true (you're going to overpay in free agency), but I still wouldn't want to see my GM throw 8.5 at Kovy. I don't know...we really haven't seen what he's capable of on a good team for a long stretch, but I just don't put him in the category of others making 8+. I look at someone like Maid Marian who's cap hit is 5.275 (albeit thanks to one of those long ass contracts) and I would much rather pay Marian 7.5 than pay Kovy 8.5.

I think I'd rather have Kovy at 8.5 than Hossa at 7.5. I just think Ilya is a bigger gamebreaker and difference maker. But I'd certainly rather have Hossa at 7 than Kovy at 9.

Kovalchuk's production dictates about a price of 7 - 7.5 if you compare him to Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin. Since those are the three best offensive players in the game, and they make 8.7, 9.5, and 8.7 respectively, and since Kovalchuk consistently produces at a level one tier below those three, he should be paid exactly one tier below them, which would stick him in that 7 - 7.5 range. But you have to assume a 500K+ overpayment in free agency for top, hotly contested talent, with that overpayment increasing proportional to the player's monetary worth. Thus a player like Kovalchuk should make about 750K - 1.5 above his worth in free agency.

The problem comes into play that every team in the Salary Cap era must improve through free agency, and therefore overpayments are almost necessary. A team already built to compete (like Detroit, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, etc.) won't be hit as heavily with these overpayments because players will take less to play for contenders (in general) and they don't usually have to target the biggest names in free agency because they just those few pieces to put them over the hump and take them from competitive to legitimate contender.

So I guess what I'm saying, Loki, is that I essentially agree with you, but it's also important to recognize the "nature of the beast" so to speak.

 

[devs30rko]

I don't think Kovy's worth $8.5 million per year, but I would say he's worth $7-7.5 million. And you can expect about a $500K - $1 million overpayment in free agency, so this wouldn't be an utterly terrible deal. Actually a pretty decent one.

As far as the argument that the Devils are worse with Kovalchuk, I don't buy it. The Devils having a worse record with him on the roster was strictly an anomaly. If you increase the talent on a team, you will make the team better. Kovalchuk is talented, so if the Devils don't give up more talent to get him than they net with him, they will improve their team over the course of the season by signing him.

I HATE IT when people claim this.... the devils were bad the whole second half of the season..... i should know i had to watch it.

in fact they were losing damn near ever game UNTIL they got kovy, after that they became about a 500 team. he actually improved them from how they were playing, the record was still bad tho thats why people think they got worse.
they just weren't paying attention to how the devils were doing in the about 15-20 game stretch before they got kovy.

 

[Destroydacre]

Not really sure why everyone compares Kovalchuk's contract (or soon to be signed contract) to Ovechkin's and Crosby's etc. As I've said before, GM's are free to pay him or any NHL player up to $12M per year regardless of what anyone else in the NHL is making. All this contract comparison is honestly nothing but garbage.

 

[h X c Chris]

I think I'd rather have Kovy at 8.5 than Hossa at 7.5. I just think Ilya is a bigger gamebreaker and difference maker. But I'd certainly rather have Hossa at 7 than Kovy at 9.

Kovalchuk's production dictates about a price of 7 - 7.5 if you compare him to Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin. Since those are the three best offensive players in the game, and they make 8.7, 9.5, and 8.7 respectively, and since Kovalchuk consistently produces at a level one tier below those three, he should be paid exactly one tier below them, which would stick him in that 7 - 7.5 range. But you have to assume a 500K+ overpayment in free agency for top, hotly contested talent, with that overpayment increasing proportional to the player's monetary worth. Thus a player like Kovalchuk should make about 750K - 1.5 above his worth in free agency.

The problem comes into play that every team in the Salary Cap era must improve through free agency, and therefore overpayments are almost necessary. A team already built to compete (like Detroit, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, etc.) won't be hit as heavily with these overpayments because players will take less to play for contenders (in general) and they don't usually have to target the biggest names in free agency because they just those few pieces to put them over the hump and take them from competitive to legitimate contender.

So I guess what I'm saying, Loki, is that I essentially agree with you, but it's also important to recognize the "nature of the beast" so to speak.

I think Backstrom and both Sedins would have a serious argument there.

 

[Darkstone42]

Not really sure why everyone compares Kovalchuk's contract (or soon to be signed contract) to Ovechkin's and Crosby's etc. As I've said before, GM's are free to pay him or any NHL player up to $12M per year regardless of what anyone else in the NHL is making. All this contract comparison is honestly nothing but garbage.

Sure they're free to do so, but that doesn't make it wise. Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin have contracts by which these deals should be measured. They set the correlation between talent/production and money. General managers would be unwise to significantly break that guideline. If a GM decides to pay Kovalchuk $12 million per year, good for him, but he probably just crippled his team financially for that contract's duration and did not manage his resources effectively.

A GM is free to pay Sean Avery $12 million, too, let's not forget. But that GM would certainly be fired if he did so.

In my opinion, for example, the Penguins overpaid for Michalek and Martin by about $500 - 700K each, which is pretty normal and acceptable in free agency. But just because they gave out those contracts (and were certainly free to do so), that doesn't make those players worth that money.

EDIT: I suppose what I'm saying is that a GM would be foolish to not bring up those three players' contracts in the negotiations for a contract for Kovalchuk.

 

[Darkstone42]

I think Backstrom and both Sedins would have a serious argument there.

While they were all excellent last year, they haven't been at the level of the three I mentioned over the entire span that all those players have been in the league. If they continue to produce as they did last year, proving that the stars didn't merely align for them, and that it was entirely a product of their talent and ability, then that argument can be made.

At this point, Kovalchuk is best compared to the three highest paid players in the league. I personally think all three players you mentioned are probably better than Kovalchuk, but Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin's contracts are the ones that GMs will most likely use as points of comparison in the negotiations.

 

[h X c Chris]

What do you mean the entire span? Malkin has two 100 point seasons and Henrik Sedin has 1. I dont think there is that much of a huge gap there. I mean you're talking a total of 4 seasons, and not all of them were that impressive. Daniel Sedin scored more points than Malkin in less games. I think both the Sedin's and Backstrom are here to stay. The only player listed that is separated from the pack is Ovechkin with four 100+ point seasons out of 5, and four 50+ goal seaons out of 5.

I do agree that GM's are most likely comparing Kovalchuk to the 3 players you listed, but there are definitely a lot of players they could use to make an argument against giving him that type of money as well.

I wouldnt give Kovalchuk a dime over 7mil.

 

[Darkstone42]

What do you mean the entire span? Malkin has two 100 point seasons and Henrik Sedin has 1. I dont think there is that much of a huge gap there. I mean you're talking a total of 4 seasons, and not all of them were that impressive. Daniel Sedin scored more points than Malkin in less games. I think both the Sedin's and Backstrom are here to stay. The only player listed that is separated from the pack is Ovechkin with four 100+ point seasons out of 5, and four 50+ goal seaons out of 5.

I do agree that GM's are most likely comparing Kovalchuk to the 3 players you listed, but there are definitely a lot of players they could use to make an argument against giving him that type of money as well.

I wouldnt give Kovalchuk a dime over 7mil.

As a GM, I'd make the cutoff at 7.5, as I've said already. But going into negotiations with a top talent, you almost have to use the highest salaries out there as your point of reference. Otherwise the player won't take you seriously.

And Crosby also has four 100 point seasons out of 5, a Hart, a Ross, and a Richard, so he's probably on the same tier as Ovechkin, then I'd say Malkin, Datsyuk, the Sedin's, and Backstrom are on the next tier. Kovalchuk probably falls on their tier, so he should likely make somewhere between 6 and 8.7 I'd say, but definitely I'd stick around 7.

 

[Vadered]

Not really sure why everyone compares Kovalchuk's contract (or soon to be signed contract) to Ovechkin's and Crosby's etc. As I've said before, GM's are free to pay him or any NHL player up to $12M per year regardless of what anyone else in the NHL is making. All this contract comparison is honestly nothing but garbage.

Dark gave a good response to this, but I'd like to elaborate. GMs are free to pay up to the maximum to any player, of course, but every dollar they spend on Kovalchuk is a dollar they can't spend on anyone else. It isn't baseball, where the owner's pockets are the limit, either. The salary cap means that GMs need to get their money's worth. To judge if they have effectively done so, you look at the player's projected performance vs. the projected performance of similarly paid players. It's silly to say you have made a good contract if you are overpaying a guy $4 million dollars more than he is worth.

Now I understand that different teams have different needs, so a team like L.A. isn't willing to sign a goalie for several millions of dollars when they already have a bunch. And the fact that teams do have needs allows players to get better contracts than the league as a whole would generally offer them.

But Kovalchuk isn't so good that he merits $9 million - the upper echelon of current contracts - on his own, and I don't think the Devils are so hard up for forwards that they should spend $9 million on him. They could explore other options via free agency or trades.

Let's put it this way. For about 12 million, you could get Kovalchuk and Sean Avery. Or, you could get Mike Richards and Jeff Carter with a million to spare. You decide.

 

[dash]

Come on Kovy, this is as simple as ABC...

A lways
B e
C losing

/'Cause you drove a Hyundai to work and I drove a $80,000 BMW. THAT's my name ;-)

 

[davnlaguna]

Ok may be nothing but two LA sources, one (Helene) is credible, are reporting the Kings made another offer for Kovy today/last night.

Arrggghhh


edit
Third reporter
Back in?
Posted by Rich Hammond on 7 July 2010, 9:30 am
There are strong reports that the Kings are once again talking with Jay Grossman, Ilya Kovalchuk’s agent. Remember, it’s all a big poker game. The Kings never once said they were “out” of the picture, and our 24/7 media culture is a great way to publicly negotiate and influence opinion. Anyway, I’ll pass along more information as I get it.

 

[sTyLnK]

TSN is reporting that the Kings have re-arranged negotiations. Personally I think Kovy is a wayyyy better fit on LA. A good young team that have made leaps and bounds moving forward and adding Kovy would honestly make them an even more dangerous team.

 

[flyersfan4706]

LA Megadeal....

 

[davnlaguna]

Kings are "out" again
Over again?
Posted by Rich Hammond on 7 July 2010, 10:35 pm
The latest Kings/Kovalchuk twist took place tonight, when team governor Tim Leiweke entered the fray and told the L.A. Times that the latest proposal from the Kovalchuk camp did not fit within the team’s financial structure. “We really would love to add Kovi to our team, but not at the cost of our good young players,” Leiweke said. So, we’ll see what tomorrow brings.

 

[dash]

When did the Oilers enter the fray with an eleventy bajillion dollar offer for Kovy?

 

[CatScrap]

Ok, I am by no means saying that Kovy is worth 12 million a year, but he is valuable.

Also, when you look to compare him to some current contracts, such as Ovechkin and Crosby, you have to realize that Alex signed his contract in 2008 with a Cap hit of 9.538 million per year and Crosby signed in 2008 with a Cap hit of 8.7 million per year.

That was 2 years ago. Because of the state of the economy, since they signed their contract the average rate of inflation has been pegged at 2.765% per year.

Adjusting both Ovechkin's and Crosby's numbers for inflation to find the signing value in today's numbers would change Ovechkin's Cap hit to 10.073 million per year and Crosby's to 9.188 Million per year.

When comparing a players current value for a new contract against ANY other contract on the market that is more than 6 months old you have to account for inflation. For example, if the economy took a major downturn, like depression style, and the rate of inflation sky rockets so that in 3-5 years time the dollar has lost half of its value, would it be fair to compare a player's value whose looking for a new contract to the face value of a players contract who signed a 10 year deal 5 years ago? No it wouldn't.

With Crosby's original contract value being the equivalent of 9.188 million a year in today's terms, I would say, IMO, that Kovalchuk is worth 7.5 million a year in todays money.

With this being said, since there are multiple teams interested in him and he is in FA, it is fair to add 0.5-1 million to his value due to the fact that he is currently a hot commodity. This would give you a current Fair Market Value for Kovalchuk of 8-8.5 million per year. I think that is about the value that he is going to sign for.

 

[CatScrap]

Another example of what I am talking about.
Alex Ovechkin signed a 13 year deal with an average cap hit of 9.538 Million in 2008.
If we take the average rate of inflation for the past 13 years, or 2.47% per year, and devalue Ovechkin's contract by that amount each year, this is what we come up with.

Year Value (in 2008 dollar terms)
1 9.538
2 9.302
3 9.072
4 8.848
5 8.629
6 8.416
7 8.208
8 8.006
9 7.808
10 7.615
11 7.427
12 7.243
13 7.065

So, as you can see, the actual "VALUE", not dollar amount, of a contract decreases over time due to inflation. If you were to pay Ovechkin the inflation adjusted value of the 9.538 Million he was paind in in 2008 for the final year of his contract you would end up paying him 12.782 Million his final year.

 

[davnlaguna]

You also have to remember the CBA is ending soon. Owners are going to fight to lower the players % of money because (enter reason that says the league is in trouble but really means the owners want more money here). This could result in the cap going down. No one is sure and putting a big contract out now may handicap the team under the new CBA.