Kessel Traded to Pittsburgh

[DragonfromTO]

In 5 seconds of thought the method is flawed for at least 3 reasons.

1) Sample size. The cutoff is 40 games, but based on minutes played the players have much different susceptibility to luck and other factors, such as..

2) The very thing you point out in your post, quality of linemates. This variable leaves far too much in the unknown column. Same with...

3) Quality of competition. Unaccounted for here.

Too much is left out of this "stat".

Sure, if you want to use it as some kind of tell all stat it's obviously inadequate. But in this case accounting for those 3 factors wouldn't seem to "help" Bozak anyway, unless I'm missing something. So it seems perfectly adequate to make a broad stroke kind of conclusion about the guy.

Do you have a "better" stat that makes Bozak look good? I'm all ears if you do.

I'm also curious whether or not you would trade any of Ottawa's centres for him (contract aside). Who would you happily dump to make a place for Bozak? Because when it comes down to it actions usually tell us more about how people feel than their words. And yes I know you're not the owner or GM so it's not really getting down to "actions", but it's a step in that direction.

 

[DragonfromTO]

There are tons of wingers on that list. Who the hell has Mike Hoffman as a C? He took 14 faceoffs last year.
There are plenty of others that stand out on that list too. Enough to move Bozak into the 90th range, which is 3rd line C. Combine that with the fact that by the exact same metric he was ranked 14th the previous year and 64th the year before that, I'd say he slides in around 65-80 league wide at the C position.

As a side note? I know you love stats and I'm a big fan too, but this one has some pretty serious flaws as an evaluator of quality when in 2012-2013 Jay McClement had more P/60 than Henrik Zetterberg.

So I took another look at the results because I was curious about them after the Jay McClement comment, because I realized I hadn't really looked at the names above Bozak very carefully. Here's what I got for the top 20 scorers 5 on 5 per 60 last year (I took out non centres)

1. Johnson
2. Getzlaf
3. Seguin
4. Crosby
5. Malkin
6. Datsyuk
7. Carter
8. Dubinsky
9. Toews
10. Stepan
11. Tavares
12. Hoobeedoo
13. Ribeiro
14. Duchene
15. Backes
16. Stamkos
17. Thornton
18. Brassard
19. Sedin
20. Bergeron

If you asked someone the specific question "who were the best offensive centres 5 on 5 last year?" and they gave you that list, would you honestly tell them it was bullshit? It looks reasonably accurate to me.

 

[DragonfromTO]

As for Bozak's ultimate place? I think he can probably be a 3rd centre on a bad team and a 4th on a good one. But he's still not a guy I'd choose if I had those jobs to fill, just a guy that I'd be ok using there if I already had him.

 

[Darkstone42]

I have this analysis regarding the trade:

Kessel is fast, likes to shoot, is good at shooting, and is right-handed.

All of these things are good for the Penguins' needs. Also, I just always liked the guy.

I am happy.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Found HERO charts for Bozak here

http://www.sportingnews.com/article...-deadline-maple-leafs-tyler-bozak-phil-kessel

They're a little more useful. They're also probably a little worse now since that was done in February and the last couple of months were rather unproductive for him. But i wouldn't say they make my conclusion (4th line centre on a good team) look all that inaccurate anyway.

 

[DragonfromTO]

And now, to break up this discussion with something lighter

Is The Kessel Hot Dog Story Real? - Pension Plan Puppets

Hilarious. Can't say I'm surprised at all.

 

[Darkstone42]

And now, to break up this discussion with something lighter

Is The Kessel Hot Dog Story Real? - Pension Plan Puppets

Hilarious. Can't say I'm surprised at all.

I'm actually a bit disappointed it isn't true. Pittsburgh has The O, which is kind of a famous hot dog place, and I was hoping he'd be a regular there. Whenever he walked in, everyone would yell, "Phil!" Norm from Cheers style.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I'm actually a bit disappointed it isn't true. Pittsburgh has The O, which is kind of a famous hot dog place, and I was hoping he'd be a regular there. Whenever he walked in, everyone would yell, "Phil!" Norm from Cheers style.

It's Simmons, you should have never gotten your hopes up that he was telling the truth.

 

[pixburgher66]

I love the passionate Bozak conversation, hahahaha.

 

[BGDave]

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Cheeseburger a day challenge?

Cheeseburger a day challenge.

 

[pixburgher66]

Cheeseburger a day challenge?

Cheeseburger a day challenge.

This is a highly offensive comment about a man we all know to be an all-American hotdog lover.

 

[Comeds]

This is a highly offensive comment about a man we all know to be an all-American hotdog lover.