Kessel Traded to Pittsburgh

[DragonfromTO]

Plus I enjoy the fact that playing Columbus is like wiping your ass with sandpaper and broken glass and our biggest rivals got a guy who won't backcheck or go into corners to win pucks In the process, getting a defenseman who couldn't hit his way out of a bag of cotton candy.

Who needs a guy that scores goals if they don't have someone to protect the water bottles?

 

[dare2be]

I'm afraid to read and contribute to this thread after learning about this. Plus, I'm still on vacation, so....

/will not let my vacation be ruined.

 

[forty_three]

I'm afraid to read and contribute to this thread after learning about this. Plus, I'm still on vacation, so....

/will not let my vacation be ruined.

Did you hear Gregory Campbell and Brandon Saad are now Blue Jackets?

Enjoy your vacation!

 

[dash]

Did you hear Gregory Campbell and Brandon Saad are now Blue Jackets?

Enjoy your vacation!

Don't forget about Blake Comeau getting his Rocky Mountain jollies in Denver...

 

[DragonfromTO]

I'm afraid to read and contribute to this thread after learning about this. Plus, I'm still on vacation, so....

/will not let my vacation be ruined.

Your top 6 might score 200 goals. Enjoy it.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I was really evaluating the front office though, not the trade. Good process leads to good results, which is important because there's a lot more "process" that needs to happen.

In regards to the front office, I read this morning that there was a deal for Bozak offered that was rejected in which another party who knew the return said he was surprised the Leafs didn't accept it. THAT bothers me.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

 

[DragonfromTO]

In regards to the front office, I read this morning that there was a deal for Bozak offered that was rejected in which another party who knew the return said he was surprised the Leafs didn't accept it. THAT bothers me.

You suggesting that Bozak won't be easy to trade when the All-Star break comes and he's only got 5 goals and 17 points?

It's going to be interesting to see what his game is this year too, since in the past it was always "as soon as the puck touches my stick give it to Phil"

 

[KennyBanyeah]

You suggesting that Bozak won't be easy to trade when the All-Star break comes and he's only got 5 goals and 17 points?

It's going to be interesting to see what his game is this year too, since in the past it was always "as soon as the puck touches my stick give it to Phil"

I've never been a really big believer in Bozak, but he is at least a decent 3rd liner on most teams. Now if he continues to put up 1B or 2nd line numbers in Phil's absence maybe his value actually increases.

I mean we can sit here and be pretty confident that his point totals have been inflated by playing with Kessel (and JVR to a degree); I'm sure NHL GMs, AGMS, and scouts have made the same assessment.
I can't see teams being surprised that his numbers take a dip now that he will have inferior linemates.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I've never been a really big believer in Bozak, but he is at least a decent 3rd liner on most teams. Now if he continues to put up 1B or 2nd line numbers in Phil's absence maybe his value actually increases.

I mean we can sit here and be pretty confident that his point totals have been inflated by playing with Kessel (and JVR to a degree); I'm sure NHL GMs, AGMS, and scouts have made the same assessment.
I can't see teams being surprised that his numbers take a dip now that he will have inferior linemates.

What do you think he does well enough to be a decent 3rd liner on a top team?

 

[KennyBanyeah]

What do you think he does well enough to be a decent 3rd liner on a top team?

Kessel or not he puts up points. Let's take a look at the final 4 teams this year and decide which Cs would play ahead of Bozak on a regular basis (based on performance).

Chicago:

1. Toews (no-brainer)
2. Richards (maybe at this point his career)

Nobody after that (Kruger and Shaw simply don't contribute enough right now).

Tampa Bay (considering Stamkos as a W):

1. Johnson. No doubt here.
   
2. Filpulla. A slight upgrade on Bozak.
   
3. Killorn. Right in Bozak's ballpark, IMO.

Tampa is deep down the middle.

Anaheim:

1. Getzlaf. A given.
   
2. Kesler. Still better than Bozak despite some decline the last few years.
   
3. MAYBE Cogliano. Pretty similar cielings, IMO.

NYR:

1. Stepan. Bozak is a poor man's Stepan. Step is the much better player.
   
2. Brassard. A notable upgrade on Bozak, IMO.
   
3. Hayes. If I recall he played wing quite a bit but this year he would be in Bozak's league.

Those are the four best teams in the league and I don't see how they would have been significantly hurt by replacing their #3 with Bozak.

His salary is another thing altogether, but he's a capable #3 NHL C.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I've never been a really big believer in Bozak, but he is at least a decent 3rd liner on most teams. Now if he continues to put up 1B or 2nd line numbers in Phil's absence maybe his value actually increases.

I mean we can sit here and be pretty confident that his point totals have been inflated by playing with Kessel (and JVR to a degree); I'm sure NHL GMs, AGMS, and scouts have made the same assessment.
I can't see teams being surprised that his numbers take a dip now that he will have inferior linemates.

Here's what Bozak's numbers have looked like for his career

With Phil: 47.8 GF%, 47.1 CF%
Without Phil: 35.3 GF%, 41.4 CF%

I don't think that every GM in the league is aware of how big that difference is.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Kessel or not he puts up points. Let's take a look at the final 4 teams this year and decide which Cs would play ahead of Bozak on a regular basis (based on performance).

Chicago:

1. Toews (no-brainer)
2. Richards (maybe at this point his career)

Nobody after that (Kruger and Shaw simply don't contribute enough right now).

Tampa Bay (considering Stamkos as a W):

1. Johnson. No doubt here.
   
2. Filpulla. A slight upgrade on Bozak.
   
3. Killorn. Right in Bozak's ballpark, IMO.

Tampa is deep down the middle.

Anaheim:

1. Getzlaf. A given.
   
2. Kesler. Still better than Bozak despite some decline the last few years.
   
3. MAYBE Cogliano. Pretty similar cielings, IMO.

NYR:

1. Stepan. Bozak is a poor man's Stepan. Step is the much better player.
   
2. Brassard. A notable upgrade on Bozak, IMO.
   
3. Hayes. If I recall he played wing quite a bit but this year he would be in Bozak's league.

Those are the four best teams in the league and I don't see how they would have been significantly hurt by replacing their #3 with Bozak.

His salary is another thing altogether, but he's a capable #3 NHL C.

You're overrating him. I posted his numbers with and without Kessel. Take a look at them.

When Bozak was on the ice without Kessel the Leafs scored 2.05 goals per 60 and allowed 3.76 per 60. A little bit of that is probably explained by worse zone starts, but those aren't the numbers I'd expect from a guy who "puts up points".

 

[DragonfromTO]

Kessel or not he puts up points. Let's take a look at the final 4 teams this year and decide which Cs would play ahead of Bozak on a regular basis (based on performance).

Chicago:

1. Toews (no-brainer)
2. Richards (maybe at this point his career)

Nobody after that (Kruger and Shaw simply don't contribute enough right now).

Tampa Bay (considering Stamkos as a W):

1. Johnson. No doubt here.
   
2. Filpulla. A slight upgrade on Bozak.
   
3. Killorn. Right in Bozak's ballpark, IMO.

Tampa is deep down the middle.

Anaheim:

1. Getzlaf. A given.
   
2. Kesler. Still better than Bozak despite some decline the last few years.
   
3. MAYBE Cogliano. Pretty similar cielings, IMO.

NYR:

1. Stepan. Bozak is a poor man's Stepan. Step is the much better player.
   
2. Brassard. A notable upgrade on Bozak, IMO.
   
3. Hayes. If I recall he played wing quite a bit but this year he would be in Bozak's league.

Those are the four best teams in the league and I don't see how they would have been significantly hurt by replacing their #3 with Bozak.

His salary is another thing altogether, but he's a capable #3 NHL C.

You have to remember too that if he's playing on the 3rd line he's not only not playing with stars anymore but he's also only getting 3rd line minutes, not the 22 minutes a game he got in Toronto. He had 23 even strength points last year, or about 1.2 per 60 mins. Let's see how that compares to the guys mentioned above

Hayes 2.3 EV/60
Killorn 2.1
Richards 1.8
Cogliano 1.4
Kruger 1.1
Shaw 1.1

In addition, none of those guys played with linemates like Phil Kessel and JVR, and all of them are noticeably better defensively than Bozak.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

You have to remember too that if he's playing on the 3rd line he's not only not playing with stars anymore but he's also only getting 3rd line minutes, not the 22 minutes a game he got in Toronto. He had 23 even strength points last year, or about 1.2 per 60 mins. Let's see how that compares to the guys mentioned above

Hayes 2.3 EV/60
Killorn 2.1
Richards 1.8
Cogliano 1.4
Kruger 1.1
Shaw 1.1

In addition, none of those guys played with linemates like Phil Kessel and JVR, and all of them are noticeably better defensively than Bozak.

I'm not saying he's the best 3rd C out there but he would be the 3rd C on plenty of NHL teams. The numbers you have above are in line with that actually.

 

[forty_three]

Some guy tried to replicate the Kessel trade in NHL 15.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I'm not saying he's the best 3rd C out there but he would be the 3rd C on plenty of NHL teams. The numbers you have above are in line with that actually.

No, they aren't actually. Hell, he was actually only #3 among centres on the shitty Leafs in EVP/60! While playing with the best (only) offensive players on the team! I couldn't find a sortable version for even strength but behindthenet.ca has sortable totals for 5 on 5 scoring. Guess where Bozak ranked last year among centres in 5 on 5 points per 60 (minimum 40 games)? 119th. Here's the link

BEHIND THE NET: Hockey Analysis and Statistics

Now I suspect he's not actually that low since I'm sure that there are a few wingers listed as centres, but come on man.

And as I said, his numbers above were put up playing with Kessel and JVR. So all of the "3rd line" guys he's being compared to are at a huge disadvantage, and they still make him look subpar. He's probably a nice guy, but on the ice he's a parasite.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

No, they aren't actually. Hell, he was actually only #3 among centres on the shitty Leafs in EVP/60! While playing with the best (only) offensive players on the team! I couldn't find a sortable version for even strength but behindthenet.ca has sortable totals for 5 on 5 scoring. Guess where Bozak ranked last year among centres in 5 on 5 points per 60 (minimum 40 games)? 119th. Here's the link

BEHIND THE NET: Hockey Analysis and Statistics

Now I suspect he's not actually that low since I'm sure that there are a few wingers listed as centres, but come on man.

And as I said, his numbers above were put up playing with Kessel and JVR. So all of the "3rd line" guys he's being compared to are at a huge disadvantage, and they still make him look subpar.

There are tons of wingers on that list. Who the hell has Mike Hoffman as a C? He took 14 faceoffs last year.
There are plenty of others that stand out on that list too. Enough to move Bozak into the 90th range, which is 3rd line C. Combine that with the fact that by the exact same metric he was ranked 14th the previous year and 64th the year before that, I'd say he slides in around 65-80 league wide at the C position.

As a side note? I know you love stats and I'm a big fan too, but this one has some pretty serious flaws as an evaluator of quality when in 2012-2013 Jay McClement had more P/60 than Henrik Zetterberg.

 

[DragonfromTO]

There are tons of wingers on that list. Who the hell has Mike Hoffman as a C? He took 14 faceoffs last year.
There are plenty of others that stand out on that list too. Enough to move Bozak into the 90th range, which is 3rd line C. Combine that with the fact that by the exact same metric he was ranked 14th the previous year and 64th the year before that, I'd say he slides in around 65-80 league wide at the C position.

As a side note? I know you love stats and I'm a big fan too, but this one has some pretty serious flaws as an evaluator of quality when in 2012-2013 Jay McClement had more P/60 than Henrik Zetterberg.

You seem to keep forgetting that he did that while playing with first line players! If you're evaluating his worth as a 3rd line centre you have to give him 3rd line linemates too, which would drop him lower in the rankings. And once again, this is just points. If we factor in how lousy he is defensively he drops even lower.

If you want to call a stat "flawed" you really need to point out flaws in the methodology rather than the results, no? Otherwise it just sounds like "this stat is no good because it doesn't fit the preconceived notions I had". I mean, it's not like this is some fancy complicated stat, it's just 5 on 5 points per 60. I suspect that part of the reason McClement scores so high is that he played fewer games that year and actually did have some luck in the point department during that shortened time.

"Combine that with the fact that by the exact same metric he was ranked 14th the previous year and 64th the year before that"

Doesn't that just support the notion that he's riding Phil's coattails though? Phil has a dogshit season and Bozak falls off the face of the earth. And Phil still had a better season than the average 3rd line winger (the guy that Bozak would be playing with) anyway!

 

[KennyBanyeah]

You seem to keep forgetting that he did that while playing with first line players! If you're evaluating his worth as a 3rd line centre you have to give him 3rd line linemates too, which would drop him lower in the rankings. And once again, this is just points. If we factor in how lousy he is defensively he drops even lower.

If you want to call a stat "flawed" you really need to point out flaws in the methodology rather than the results, no? Otherwise it just sounds like "this stat is no good because it doesn't fit the preconceived notions I had". I mean, it's not like this is some fancy complicated stat, it's just 5 on 5 points per 60. I suspect that part of the reason McClement scores so high is that he played fewer games that year and actually did have some luck in the point department during that shortened time.

"Combine that with the fact that by the exact same metric he was ranked 14th the previous year and 64th the year before that"

Doesn't that just support the notion that he's riding Phil's coattails though? Phil has a dogshit season and Bozak falls off the face of the earth. And Phil still had a better season than the average 3rd line winger (the guy that Bozak would be playing with) anyway!

In 5 seconds of thought the method is flawed for at least 3 reasons.

1) Sample size. The cutoff is 40 games, but based on minutes played the players have much different susceptibility to luck and other factors, such as..

2) The very thing you point out in your post, quality of linemates. This variable leaves far too much in the unknown column. Same with...

3) Quality of competition. Unaccounted for here.

Too much is left out of this "stat".