Kaepernick - one hit wonder or here to stay?

[SmokingMonkey]

Didnt see a specific thread for this guy, and I think he deserves one after last year's playoff run.......

Kaepernick should have atleast 1 or 2 big games but I feel that will be due to
his running ability.. IS he going to become turnover prone? we will see...

-quote from RamTough regarding 2013 outlook


Nice to see some kick back on Kaep, seems like everything else I have heard from people is that he will be a top 5 QB in fantasy this year (exaggerated, I know, but it seems like the fantasy world -- not just Foot, lol -- is in love right now). We just have such a relatively small sample size to base his fantasy worth on as of now. I love the cannon-arm and straight line speed, but IF frisco doesnt have such a dominant rushing attack, will Kaep be a top tier QB1 this year?

I'm not saying that SF has to ditch their offensive strategy and work one up that revolves around Kaep, but I'm not sold on his long term success in NFL if Hunter/James can't give them what Gore has the past decade or so. And let's be real, Gore could be good for another year or two, but the torch is getting passed sooner than later. Kaep was successful in the run-first Harbaugh scheme last year, especially against undisciplined DEF units (ex: playoffs vs GB -what a performance, but is it repeatable?)


If my drafts pan out to where Im waiting for a QB, I'd love to pair Kaep or Wilson up with a respectable veteran QB like a Romo/BigBen type, and hope that one of the young scramblers emerges as a dominant force. I just think someone will reach for those guys 1-2 rounds before I'd be willing to. I think this year he will be overvalued, hopefully to the point where he can become a bargain in 2014. Or he could come off the board as the 4-8th QB taken, and give you numbers to warrant the draft position, or better.

I really wanted to get some discussion started since I have him as a potential keeper, with a FA value from last year (FA value = slotted as a last round pick). Detail at link below.

http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...9646-keeper-league-cut-shady-mccoy-loose.html

Just seems counter-productive to keep a QB in a 10man league, especially with so many good WR/RB options for me in that one.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Kaep can move it downfield through the air pretty well...but imo all of these young spread option QBs will hit a wall once the DCs have enough tape on them to know how fast they are, patterns they like, etc....Then it will be up to them to learn the game from the pocket and use their athletic ability to get a first down, extend the play etc. much like a Rodgers.

Cam's stock has dropped in the eyes of many, but he might be the one to get a 2nd contract and survive to cash all of it.

Edited to note...just grasped that you're in some type fantasy league maybe.

 

[Skin'EmAll]

I believe Kaepernick's ADP is the 6/7th round. He is projected as the top 5 QB in FF. That was before Crabtree's injury. Unlike Wilson, RGIII, Newton...he wasn't thrown into the fire and so his first real FULL year as a starter could be very solid. The D should create oppertunities for Kap to score on short fields. He'll have wayyyy more than 1 or 2 big games. of course expect the a few terrible ones as well where the defense has his number.

He's a great risk to take

 

[SportsChic]

I believe Kaepernick's ADP is the 6/7th round. He is projected as the top 5 QB in FF. That was before Crabtree's injury. Unlike Wilson, RGIII, Newton...he wasn't thrown into the fire and so his first real FULL year as a starter could be very solid. The D should create oppertunities for Kap to score on short fields. He'll have wayyyy more than 1 or 2 big games. of course expect the a few terrible ones as well where the defense has his number.

He's a great risk to take

I would grab him as a back-up QB if there in rounds 5 or 6.

 

[The Foot]

Well monkey,

I think the mere fact that there is a thread dedicated to him and yours ios not the first one I've seen on here but that speaks in itself how much attention this guy is causing in so many fantasy football players radar system.

I can tell you I am the wrong person to ask because i am all ready sold and hooked whatever you want to call it but I watched him in college and he did things you are not supposed to be able to do on a football field. I also base my feelings on his coach, Coach Harbaugh jumped at the chance to start him over Smith and we are talking about a Qb who was winning and winning a lot and harbaugh still benched him in favor of Kaep when he was still untested. That says it all if you ask me.

He along with Tavon Austin have made this coming year of football the funest year I can remember in where I couldn't wait to see how a guy would perform. I will be watching the both of them with great expectations because I feel I have spotted two guys that will be fantasy leaders for years to come and if it happens I'll forever feel validated as a football guy. I am not saying they will have good years, i'm on record as saying the will set new records that will stand for a long time! Just my two sence and I would like to add as a disclaimer that I do tend to go over board on players when I think i spotted something. Just my two sense, we'll see. Can't wait just under 3 weeks till preseason. Can't believe it's this close!

 

[averagejoe]

Was I impressed with his talent and abilities last season? Yes. Does that mean that I bump him up to elite status ahead of guys like Brees, Rodgers, Manning and Brady? No. That is just crazy talk.

The thing that scares me about Kaps is that he has a mere sample size of NFL playing experience. And in past fantasy seasons, we have seen other QB in "similar" situations have higher expectations heaped upon them (i.e. Cassel, Kolb and Flynn). That being said, those QB also changed teams and went to new systems. Whereas Kaps stays put in SF.

Kaps definitely showed some "elite" status at the tail end of last season. However I like to play it safe in the early rounds of fantasy and save the "upside" guys for later in the draft. The four QB I mentioned above are bankable fantasy producers. You can also add Newton, Ryan and Stafford IMO.

But there's always some crazy fantasy owner that has to have the latest a greatest which means that Kaps won't be there in the later rounds where he SHOULD be drafted. And I'm fine with that.

 

[TKOSpikes]

The loss of Crabtree certainly doesn't help his status for this season, but I think he's a definite top 10 now and moving forward. His talent is that of Cam's, but he has a better everything else around him offensively and defensively. I think he and Vernon Davis will step up.

but...

I would grab him as a back-up QB if there in rounds 5 or 6.

huh? I really hope you're not drafting a backup QB that early!

 

[Skin'EmAll]

The loss of Crabtree certainly doesn't help his status for this season, but I think he's a definite top 10 now and moving forward. His talent is that of Cam's, but he has a better everything else around him offensively and defensively. I think he and Vernon Davis will step up.

but...


huh? I really hope you're not drafting a backup QB that early!

Looks like he said he's in a 10 team league, he could get his starter in the 5th and bench in the 12th.
Did you say a possible Kap/Wilson with BigBen/Romo(bench) thats 5th/11-12round

 

[The Foot]

I keep hearing the loss of Crabtree will hurt. but in reality Crabtree was irrelevant. That fact is Kaep basically made by Crabtree into an elite wr, he could do it with anyone. The fact that Kaep chose to throw to him was really unrelated. kaep will just move on and pick another wr/te to make great. Boldin fits the bill nicely or Davis. Mark my words one of them will be the new Crab. Crab is not elite he just was the beneficiary of having and elite QB. Just like on GB or NO or NE every wr seems to be lights out. Well it's not a coincidence they keep having all these out of now where great wrs. Same will happen for Kaeps wrs. Just my two sense I could be wrong.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

SkinEmAll - I'll bet that he goes in the 4th-5th rounds in all my leagues in next months drafts. Someone always jumps and takes a chance. Remember where people were drafting Vick after his Eagles coming out party?? It was insane, 1st, 2nd round in a bunch of drafts. Definitely wasn't worth it. But Kaep in the 6th/7th definitely gives you time to build up a good squad before going QB, so you wouldn't have to rely on him weekly. (if he lasts that long!)

SportsChic -backup QB in the 5th/6th round? maybe in a 2QB format, but not in any other variation of fantasy football.

Foot - The immediate hold on the starting gig ordained down from Coach H does mean A LOT. Even in this gun slinger era, its hard to take a 6-2-1 team and turn it over to a guy with 3comp 5att, 35yds previous experience in the NFL. Obviously the entire coaching staff saw what he was doing in practice and were like, hell, why not. Then he kicked CHI's ass at home and done deal.
Crabtree - I don't doubt that Kaepernick helped get Crabtree's career pointing up, but you shouldn't discount what this guy brings to the table. 67% catch rate and 536 yds after catch (5th in the league), Kaep didn't do that for him, but Crabtree did get 127 targets last year.
But yes, someone will get that production now, I think one of the young WRs steps up, just too early to tell which one.

AvgJoe - I'm pretty much in your camp for fantasy, if he lasts longer than I think he will/should, I'll take him, but I don't want to pin my draft on him by jumping him up into my top tier of QB rankings, too much risk for me there. But again, I know someone will grab him at the end of the 4th - mid 5th, a couple rounds before I'd like to take the gamble.

TKO - SF was a great situation to fall into. Some untapped potential in Crabtree, Davis is a beast, great OL which almost always = a formidable rushing attack. Perfect recipe for a young starting QB. (ex - BigBen, too bad his OL sucks now, lol) Not to mention a badass DEF. What if Cam had that team....probably be similar results imo.

By the way 49ers fans - YOUR WELCOME!!!! (Rams injured Alex Smith.......unleashed Kaepernick!)

One Final Note: Aldon Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Kendall Hunter all in the same draft. Well done.

 

[The Foot]

Monkey as for your keeper league. I think you should keep Martin and the other three wrs you have. I would probably keep Kaep of Decker. i just think decker is going to suffer from too many mouths to feed. One good game 2 bad games. i use to love roller coasters when i young but not so much anymore.

As far as where to draft Kaeps? I would personally have no problem with him getting drafted in the 4th. As long as Rodgers/Brady/Brees are gone. I can see maybe if brady is on the board and u still want to go Kaep I would do it too. I don't see him lasting past the 5th in any draft this year. The way he played last year is imprinted on everyone's subconscious and therefore won't fall far. You guys hoping he will slip to the 7th or 8th don't bet on it. He won't!

 

[Ram Tough]

Unlike Wilson, RGIII, Newton...he wasn't thrown into the fire and so his first real FULL year as a starter could be very solid.

Have you ever heard of a sophomore slump?( 3rd year in league 4 Kaps 2nd year starting) They do happen... This will be Kaps first FULL season starting but he did start about half the season last year..w playoffs

He has alot going for him.. Strong Arm.. Running ability.. Good O-line, good running game..

But unlike alot of people I just don't see him being a Top 5 Qb and honestly I wouldn't be surprised if hes a bust from where hes being drafted. Some might say that's a crazy thought but I feel the injury to Crabtree will be a HUGGEEEE loss for Kaps.. He locked on 2 Crabtree last year and every other receiver/TE suffered especially Vernon Davis. My question is who will be his go 2 guy? Boldin, Davis, AJ Jenkins ?

For those expecting a huge season from Kaps don't be disappointed if it doesn't work out.. NFC WEST is 1 of the toughest divisions. And now that Kaps isn't new to the NFL you can bet that DCs will be watching a ton of game film to learn how to slow him down.. If he starts being turnover prone,(fumbles, ints) i wouldn't be surprised at all..

Good Luck 2 all this season

 

[Ram Tough]

He'll have wayyyy more than 1 or 2 big games. of course expect the a few terrible ones as well where the defense has his number.

My question is whats a big game to you?? a Big game to me for a QB is 35+ pts... I honestly think he will only haves 1 or 2 games of 35+...

 

[wilwhite]

I gotta say I haven't seen much proof of a sophomore slump at QB - certainly not lately.

But it wouldn't surprise me for Kap. The best recipe for a sophomore slump is a guy who came in suddenly and was hard to adjust to, especially with a small number of games. But that's a general thought. Specifically, I think Ds will keep his running a little more contained. His passing is okay, and if he doesn't make mistakes they'll probably win. So I expect conservative play calling, limited offensive plays, a couple of big runs here and there, and essentially numbers like Alex Smith's 2011 numbers, with maybe a few more passing TDs, another 500 yards rushing and a few more rushing TDs (remember Smith had 4 himself in 2011).

Now that's if things go as planned, and why he even makes my top 10 (barely). But there's a lot we don't know about this guy. The pressure is on, expectations are high, and he's not a breath of fresh air any more. He's explosive, but we haven't had a chance yet to see how truly resilient he is. It wouldn't surprise me much if one of several possible things go wrong - he turns out to be mentally brittle and starts blaming receivers, or foolhardy and takes hits at the end of dumb runs, or simply presses and loses accuracy.

So I think there's plenty of downside and I wouldn't be at all shocked if guys like Luck, Eli and Dalton pass him and he drops out of the top 15. You'll have to pick my jaw off the floor if he overtakes guys like Stafford and Ryan and cracks the top 5, though.

 

[TREFF]

Well, any regular knows how I feel about Keep, but there's my Readers Digest version of why I have him high.

Perhaps the biggest reason is what I feel is a big log jam of QB'S vying for position after Rodgers, Breeds, and Manning (Peyton). Now, any other year I'd put Brady in that group as well, but even then, there's an opening at slot#5. So, no matter who your favorite is, any one of Matt Ryan, Stafford, ect,..would have to make a sizable leap to definitively grab that fifth spot. And if that's the case, and any one of them have just as good of a shot as any of the others, than why not Kaep??.
Sticking to only what we've seen so far, we know that he has the arm, the legs, and thus far, the head, to be that guy. He'll have the entire off season, OTAs, and training camp as the undisputed starter. Harbuagh has all that same time to devise an offense that caters to his strengths while covering any weaknesses. And finally, he has a really bad taste in his mouth from losing the SB, all of the above, multiplied by some supreme motivation?? I don't think its a stretch at all to think he can't be top five..possibly 4 depending on how the lack of receivers affects Brady

 

[TREFF]

Ram-glad I don't play QB for!

In my mind 35+ is a huge game, I'd call anything over 25 a "big" game, with 20 being my expected average game, or at least that's what I hope for.

 

[Skin'EmAll]

Have you ever heard of a sophomore slump?( 3rd year in league 4 Kaps 2nd year starting) They do happen... This will be Kaps first FULL season starting but he did start about half the season last year..w playoffs

He has alot going for him.. Strong Arm.. Running ability.. Good O-line, good running game..

But unlike alot of people I just don't see him being a Top 5 Qb and honestly I wouldn't be surprised if hes a bust from where hes being drafted. Some might say that's a crazy thought but I feel the injury to Crabtree will be a HUGGEEEE loss for Kaps.. He locked on 2 Crabtree last year and every other receiver/TE suffered especially Vernon Davis. My question is who will be his go 2 guy? Boldin, Davis, AJ Jenkins ?

For those expecting a huge season from Kaps don't be disappointed if it doesn't work out.. NFC WEST is 1 of the toughest divisions. And now that Kaps isn't new to the NFL you can bet that DCs will be watching a ton of game film to learn how to slow him down.. If he starts being turnover prone,(fumbles, ints) i wouldn't be surprised at all..
Good Luck 2 all this season

From a fantasy standpoint to get a projected TOP5 QB in the 5th round?...you can't beat that.
I say 5th because in the real thing drafters reach, but in all mocks, he's there in the 7/8th.
If not huge...he should be very solid.
QBs that offer rushing points seem to be the way to go, if you can't land Rogers, Brees, Manning or Brady

 

[averagejoe]

I'm with Ram Tough.

I know Kaps is not really a rookie, but too many QB have fallen victim to the sophomore slump.

Let's say that he does just a good as last season. In basically half of a season, he had 1814 passing yards, 415 rushing yards, a combined 15 TD, 3 INT and 9 FUM, for 164 fantasy points.

If he does just as well, you can theoretically double those numbers. 3628 passing, 830 rushing, 30 TD, 6 INT, 18 FUM, for 328 fantasy points.

328 fantasy points puts him in some elite company. Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and RG3 were in that range (and RG3 missed a game). But 328 is still 20 points shy of Peyton, 30 shy of Rodgers, and 60 shy of Brees.

So I still stand by my initial comment that I wouldn't chance a reach on Kaps if these other guys are still on the board.

 

[TREFF]

328 fantasy points puts him in some elite company. Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and RG3 were in that range (and RG3 missed a game). But 328 is still 20 points shy of Peyton, 30 shy of Rodgers, and 60 shy of Brees.

Very true..but even then, that puts him in the heavy race for 4th, 5th, in that area..just sayin'! Easily in the top ten, knocking on the top five's door, possibly breaking and entering!

 

[Skin'EmAll]

I'm with Ram Tough.

I know Kaps is not really a rookie, but too many QB have fallen victim to the sophomore slump.

Let's say that he does just a good as last season. In basically half of a season, he had 1814 passing yards, 415 rushing yards, a combined 15 TD, 3 INT and 9 FUM, for 164 fantasy points.

If he does just as well, you can theoretically double those numbers. 3628 passing, 830 rushing, 30 TD, 6 INT, 18 FUM, for 328 fantasy points.

328 fantasy points puts him in some elite company. Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and RG3 were in that range (and RG3 missed a game). But 328 is still 20 points shy of Peyton, 30 shy of Rodgers, and 60 shy of Brees.
So I still stand by my initial comment that I wouldn't chance a reach on Kaps if these other guys are still on the board.

The other guys won't be on board...EVEN in 10 team leagues the top tier QBs are all gone by round 4.
M.Ryan, RGIII, Kaepernick, R.Wilson & Stafford are sitting on board round 5.

I'm not totally sold on him either but if he doubled his production from last year...you scored