Can one of you geniuses figure out if this is legit?

[Think McFly Think]

How’s this panning out so far? Can I put up my house yet?

 

[Shanemansj13]

How’s this panning out so far? Can I put up my house yet?

44-45%. Better to go the other way. After the team breaks a winning or losing streak then revert back to the streak outcome.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

44-45%. Better to go the other way. After the team breaks a winning or losing streak then revert back to the streak outcome.

Is there a difference between winning streaks and losing streaks. I would think so. Entirely for psychological reasons.

 

[Cedrique]

Wait you know the system says the Reds will LOSE today, right? Not win, they broke a long winning streak with a loss so their next game would be a loss as well according to the system

Oops, my bad. In that case we have another favorite with the Guardians risking 125 to win 100.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Is there a difference between winning streaks and losing streaks. I would think so. Entirely for psychological reasons.

I still have my data and can just separate them. In my analysis I did them combined

 

[Shanemansj13]

Winning Streaks 9-19 - 32%
Losing Streaks 19-16 - 54%

Huge difference. Would like an entire seasons' worth of data but it seems like using this strategy is far more likely to hit on losing streaks and the sample size is larger.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I still have my data and can just separate them. In my analysis I did them combined

I assumed that. Hence why I asked.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Winning Streaks 9-19 - 32%
Losing Streaks 19-16 - 54%

Huge difference. Would like an entire seasons' worth of data but it seems like using this strategy is far more likely to hit on losing streaks and the sample size is larger.

Yup. Not surprising. At all. It’s the psychological affect. You are losing, you don’t think you will ever win again, but then you win, now you don’t have the pressure of needing to break the streak

Winning streaks the pressure is on you to continue the streak, but once you lose you are basically starting a new.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Winning Streaks 9-19 - 32%
Losing Streaks 19-16 - 54%

Huge difference. Would like an entire seasons' worth of data but it seems like using this strategy is far more likely to hit on losing streaks and the sample size is larger.

And you can even improve the losing streak strategy by weeding out the teams that normally go on the extended losing streaks.

 

[Shanemansj13]

And you can even improve the losing streak strategy by weeding out the teams that normally go on the extended losing streaks.

So just for an example I will take out all data from the 3 worst teams...

White Sox, Marlins and Rockies

16-10 - 62%

5 worst teams (includes A's and Angels)

15-8 - 65%

We are on to something....

 

[Cedrique]

How’s this panning out so far? Can I put up my house yet?

You still have a house? You're obviously not gambling enough

 

[msgkings322]

Is there a difference between winning streaks and losing streaks. I would think so. Entirely for psychological reasons.

Not according to the system. And it's similar psychology. You finally lose a game after a long winning streak, you kind of deflate the next game. You win one after a long losing streak, you get re-energized

 

[msgkings322]

Winning Streaks 9-19 - 32%
Losing Streaks 19-16 - 54%

Huge difference. Would like an entire seasons' worth of data but it seems like using this strategy is far more likely to hit on losing streaks and the sample size is larger.

I'm passing this along to my dad...with your adjustments this could be easy money

 

[msgkings322]

Oops, my bad. In that case we have another favorite with the Guardians risking 125 to win 100.

I saw -110 for both teams on ESPN.com

Basically a push

 

[Cedrique]

I saw -110 for both teams on ESPN.com

Basically a push

Could be. I had to work today and since this isn't real money I just grabbed the line I saw somewhere. The truth is if you're really serious about betting on sports the single biggest thing you could do to give yourself a chance would be to sign up for every sportsbook in your state and shop for the best lines.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Not according to the system. And it's similar psychology. You finally lose a game after a long winning streak, you kind of deflate the next game. You win one after a long losing streak, you get re-energized

But why would you be deflated? A winning streak is basically house money. Once you lose, now you are thinking about the next winning streak!!

Once you end a losing streak the weight is totally off of you.

So psychologically speaking it makes more sense for the system to work after a losing streak than a winning streak.

Actually has some validity.

 

[msgkings322]

Atlanta on a 5 game losing streak and Baltimore on a 6 game winning streak, playing each other now

Braves up 4-0 in the 6th so if that holds we have 2 system games tomorrow...and based on the data from @Shanemansj13 the Atlanta one is more likely to work.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Atlanta on a 5 game losing streak and Baltimore on a 6 game winning streak, playing each other now

Braves up 4-0 in the 6th so if that holds we have 2 system games tomorrow...and based on the data from @Shanemansj13 the Atlanta one is more likely to work.

Either way we are going 1-1 in the system haha but yes you are right. We will see

 

[msgkings322]

Either way we are going 1-1 in the system haha but yes you are right. We will see

No this game isn't a system game, doesn't count. It possibly sets up 2 system games tomorrow. If Baltimore comes back and wins then the streaks continue and there are no system games tomorrow for these two teams.

 

[msgkings322]

Either way we are going 1-1 in the system haha but yes you are right. We will see

OK so Atlanta won, so that's 2 system games tomorrow. Washington lost so that's another. If Oakland wins today that's 4.

The system says Atlanta wins again, Washington loses again, and Baltimore loses again tomorrow.