Can one of you geniuses figure out if this is legit?

[thunderc]

Does he though?

I think so

 

[Shanemansj13]

When? Not in June, I checked all the games from May 30 on to see which ones were system games. There have been 8 so far in June, with 2 more today.

It ended the last week of May

 

[msgkings322]

It ended the last week of May

So not June yet, I only looked in June

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Exactly, often the 'system' game is one that would have likely happened anyway, like beating the Rockies at home

I like the system alot when it involved the punching bag Rockies

 

[msgkings322]

I like the system alot when it involved the punching bag Rockies

Another system win, 8-1 in June

 

[Cedrique]

Another system win, 8-1 in June

I started investing in the system with imaginary money beginning last night. I risked 220 to win 100 on the favored Twins so we are now +100. Tonight we have the underdog Reds. I'll be risking 100 to win 120.

 

[msgkings322]

I started investing in the system with imaginary money beginning last night. I risked 220 to win 100 on the favored Twins so we are now +100. Tonight we have the underdog Reds. I'll be risking 100 to win 120.

Wait you know the system says the Reds will LOSE today, right? Not win, they broke a long winning streak with a loss so their next game would be a loss as well according to the system

 

[Shanemansj13]

Full results below:

Straight up W/L using method - 28-35 - 63 total games at win pct of 44%

Losing Streak	Start	End		Type of Streak	W/L
Arizona Diamondbacks	5​	5/26/2024​	5/31/2024​	Losing	W
Arizona Diamondbacks	5​	4/3/2024​	4/8/2024​	Losing	W
Atlanta Braves	6​	4/14/2024​	4/20/2024​	Winning	L
Baltimore Orioles	5​	5/23/2024​	5/27/2024​	Winning	L
Boston Red Sox	5​	3/31/2024​	4/5/2024​	Winning	L
Chicago Cubs	5​	5/22/2024​	5/27/2024​	Losing	L
Chicago Cubs	5​	3/31/2024​	4/5/2024​	Winning	L
Chicago White Sox	14​	5/22/2024​	6/6/2024​	Losing	W
Chicago White Sox	7​	4/19/2024​	4/25/2024​	Losing	W
Chicago White Sox	5​	4/4/2024​	4/8/2024​	Losing	L
Cincinnati Reds	8​	4/30/2024​	5/9/2024​	Losing	L
Cincinnati Reds	7​	6/2/2024​	6/8/2024​	Winning	TBD
Cleveland Guardians	9​	5/17/2024​	5/26/2024​	Winning	L
Cleveland Guardians	5​	4/18/2024​	4/23/2024​	Winning	L
Cleveland Guardians	5​	4/2/2024​	4/8/2024​	Winning	L
Colorado Rockies	6​	4/13/2024​	4/20/2024​	Losing	L
Colorado Rockies	5​	6/1/2024​	6/5/2024​	Losing	L
Colorado Rockies	5​	4/27/2024​	5/2/2024​	Losing	L
Colorado Rockies	7​	5/9/2024​	5/15/2024​	Winning	W
Detroit Tigers	5​	5/19/2024​	5/23/2024​	Losing	W
Detroit Tigers	5​	3/28/2024​	4/4/2024​	Winning	L
Houston Astros	5​	4/20/2024​	4/25/2024​	Losing	W
Houston Astros	6​	5/12/2024​	5/17/2024​	Winning	L
Kansas City Royals	8​	5/17/2024​	5/25/2024​	Winning	W
Kansas City Royals	7​	4/4/2024​	4/11/2024​	Winning	L
Los Angeles Angels	5​	5/29/2024​	6/2/2024​	Losing	W
Los Angeles Angels	5​	4/18/2024​	4/22/2024​	Losing	L
Los Angeles Dodgers	5​	5/21/2024​	5/26/2024​	Losing	W
Los Angeles Dodgers	7​	5/1/2024​	5/8/2024​	Winning	L
Los Angeles Dodgers	6​	4/21/2024​	4/27/2024​	Winning	L
Miami Marlins	9​	3/28/2024​	4/6/2024​	Losing	L
Miami Marlins	7​	4/22/2024​	4/29/2024​	Losing	W
Miami Marlins	5​	5/6/2024​	5/11/2024​	Losing	L
Milwaukee Brewers	5​	5/29/2024​	6/2/2024​	Winning	W
Minnesota Twins	7​	5/14/2024​	5/20/2024​	Losing	W
Minnesota Twins	5​	6/4/2024​	6/8/2024​	Losing	W
Minnesota Twins	5​	4/14/2024​	4/19/2024​	Losing	L
Minnesota Twins	12​	4/22/2024​	5/4/2024​	Winning	L
New York Mets	5​	3/29/2024​	4/4/2024​	Losing	L
New York Mets	5​	5/20/2024​	5/25/2024​	Losing	L
New York Mets	6​	4/14/2024​	4/20/2024​	Winning	W
New York Yankees	8​	5/29/2024​	6/6/2024​	Winning	W
New York Yankees	7​	5/12/2024​	5/19/2024​	Winning	W
New York Yankees	5​	5/3/2024​	5/8/2024​	Winning	L
New York Yankees	5​	3/28/2024​	4/1/2024​	Winning	L
Oakland Athletics	8​	5/12/2024​	5/19/2024​	Losing	L
Oakland Athletics	6​	4/28/2024​	5/4/2024​	Winning	W
Philadelphia Phillies	7​	4/15/2024​	4/22/2024​	Winning	W
Philadelphia Phillies	7​	4/30/2024​	5/7/2024​	Winning	L
Philadelphia Phillies	6​	5/17/2024​	5/23/2024​	Winning	L
Pittsburgh Pirates	6​	4/15/2024​	4/21/2024​	Losing	W
Pittsburgh Pirates	5​	4/28/2024​	5/3/2024​	Losing	W
Pittsburgh Pirates	5​	3/28/2024​	4/1/2024​	Winning	L
San Diego Padres	5​	4/25/2024​	4/29/2024​	Losing	W
San Diego Padres	5​	6/2/2024​	6/6/2024​	Losing	W
San Francisco Giants	6​	5/29/2024​	6/4/2024​	Losing	W
St. Louis Cardinals	7​	5/4/2024​	5/11/2024​	Losing	W
St. Louis Cardinals	5​	5/20/2024​	5/26/2024​	Winning	L
Tampa Bay Rays	6​	5/19/2024​	5/25/2024​	Losing	L
Tampa Bay Rays	5​	5/3/2024​	5/7/2024​	Winning	W
Texas Rangers	6​	5/19/2024​	5/25/2024​	Losing	W
Texas Rangers	5​	5/10/2024​	5/14/2024​	Losing	L
Toronto Blue Jays	5​	4/23/2024​	4/27/2024​	Losing	W
Washington Nationals	5​	5/14/2024​	5/19/2024​	Losing	L

 

[Shanemansj13]

April - 9-16
May - 12-18
June - 7-1 - 1 game to TBD

So unfortunately the June data seems to be lucky unless the trend is turning towards breaking even

 

[msgkings322]

April - 9-16
May - 12-18
June - 7-1 - 1 game to TBD

So unfortunately the June data seems to be lucky unless the trend is turning towards breaking even

June is up to 8-1 though with the Reds result pending today, so 29-35 or 45.3%

If the Reds lose today it's 46.15%, 44.6% if they win

 

[Shanemansj13]

June is up to 8-1 though with the Reds result pending today, so 29-35 or 45.3%

If the Reds lose today it's 46.15%, 44.6% if they win

Going to need to keep up the hot streak in June to make that 55% but possible

 

[msgkings322]

Going to need to keep up the hot streak in June to make that 55% but possible

55%? That was just my wild ass guess, feels like 50% might be closer to possible

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I could probably look into to it but seems easier to leverage the collective mind that is the internet and the Hoop lol (flattery to start, ok here we go...)

On the Giants game thread I brought this up...my dad has a baseball gambling 'system' (really a trick) that he thinks is real. After a team has a long losing or winning streak, 5+ games, when they break the streak, they repeat that last outcome the next game. So you win a game to break a 5+ game losing streak, you bet on them to win again the next day. And vice versa for winning streaks breaking.

Worked tonight for the Giants...better work tomorrow for the White Sox who tonight ended a 15 game losing streak, longest in a franchise started in 1900's history (but I'm not bitter)

Anyhoo the question is: can we test this idea? Even if it works 55-58% of the time that's a huge gambler's edge. My rudimentary understanding of gambling (I am not a sports gambler, I don't even do vcash bets lol) is that a simple system like that would eventually have the edge go away as the odds reflect it, the bookies would know to pay out less on those games until the expected payout matches other games and the system doesn't work...is that a thing? Or can we band together as Hooplans and go stack some cheddar?

its a system as good as any other... not foolproof... but there is a reason it is solid... teams coming of a winning streak are still hot... teams coming off a losing streak are still cold...

just less so than before...

also, teams that go on extended streaks tend to not be the average teams... if you win 5+ in a row, chances are you are a good team... good teams dont lose 2 in a row often... so you really could just use this same logic any time a team a good team loses or a bad team wins a single game... chances are they dont streak opposite of their projections...

 

[Shanemansj13]

55%? That was just my wild ass guess, feels like 50% might be closer to possible

I am giving you hope. I mean, your dad

 

[mr.hockey4242]

I think a better system would be to just bet twins games

If they win a lot of games. Bet on them to lose every day for a week or so.

Then vice versa.

Probably could get a ownership stake in a team by all star break

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Correct...the system game is the game AFTER you break a 5+ game streak. If the system is right, you repeat the streak breaking result the next game.

i cant see the data ever supporting this... i know mathematically it makes no sense... but psychologically speaking i guess it has merit...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

mathematically, would lean towards the same result of the streak...

but psychology wise, i can see the results lean towards how the streak was broken... with an emphasis towards the broken Losing streak...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I think a better system would be to just bet twins games

If they win a lot of games. Bet on them to lose every day for a week or so.

Then vice versa.

Probably could get a ownership stake in a team by all star break

or always bet that the White sox will lose... even during their winning streak...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Baseball is all about pitching matchups, you know this

less true than ever before.... as pitchers only go 5... that is still nearly half the game left...

 

[thunderc]

less true than ever before.... as pitchers only go 5... that is still nearly half the game left...

Still very much true