Just want to see what you guys think of this

[tzill]

Alright, you didn't like Clyde's rebuttal. So I'll give it a try.

Here's a list of franchise QBs from the last 30 years (use your imagination, you know who they are).

Here's a list of franchise ILBs (as above).

Which is more valuable and harder to replace?

To add to that, why does Aaron Rodgers talk to Steve Young? What brought them together? How does that relationship demonstrate the importance of getting a great QB?

Also, how many of your QB busts were considered as "can't-miss" as Andrew Luck?

By my count, you have listed zero. Really, no one on your list comes close.

This. Rep.

 

[tzill]

Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to get Luck. But to give up Ray Lewis / L.T. For a guy who is looking amazing in college is foolish.

If there was NO question that Luck = Montana/Brady/Manning/Marino etc, than OK. But that requires a time machine, and mine is in the shop, so I can't use it right now.

As far as can't miss guys, George and Leaf were pretty close to that. Maybe they were not getting the same talk as Luck, but to be fair, has ANYONE ever had this kind of talk? This is the age of 24 hour news so everything gets blown out of proportion. Until he is in the NFL, you just don't know.

Not true, bro. ATL traded the pick and passed on George. Leaf was drafted behind Peyton.

And while we never know for sure, Luck is as close to sure as we are likely to see for another generation. Again, the comparison is Elway.

 

[tzill]

Further, let's take a look at the ELITE qbs of the last 30 years or so...

Brady - 6th round
Manning - #1 overall
Favre - 2nd rd, 33 overall
Montana - 3rd rd
Elway - #1 overall
Marino - #27 overall

The "experts" obviously had it wrong out if the gate for most of these guys. These guys would all be #1 overall in hindsight, but only 2 of them were in reality.

I will keep my defensive HOF QB and let my QB guru HC do something with my former #1 overall QB and his heir apparent, tyvm.

You're arguing from the wrong side here Cal. The question on the table is "would you trade Willis (a known PB player) for Luck (an expected once in a generation player)." Your point is "elite players get overlooked all the time." Nobody is arguing that, it happens every year (see Rogers, Aaron, e.g.).

Luck is not overlooked, so it's apples and oranges. If your larger point is "the draft is inexact" then make that point (again). Again, the best comparable is Elway. Elway wasn't a 100% sure thing, but he was pretty much as close as it gets.

I like PWillie...a LOT. But I'd trade him in a fucking heartbeat for Luck. However, this is moot as no sane GM would give up Luck for anything less than PWillie, VD, and three first rounders.

 

[tzill]

No it wasn't. If Montana doesn't get traded, SF has three more Lombardi's.

Nothing to see here, folks...move along.

 

[deep9er]

Not one of those guys was as widely regarded as Luck is. Not one.

Alex wasn't a consensus first pick, there were many who thought Edwards or Rogers or even Pacman should have gone first in a pretty weak overall draft
Leaf wasn't even drafted first.
Russell wasn't a consensus first pick; most had Megatron rated higher.
Couch wasn't a consensus first pick; many said "throw a blanket" over Couch/McNabb/Smith/James/Williams.
Carr -- same thing in 2002 -- Carr/Peppers/Harrington/Williams was a crapshoot.
Leinart was drafted tenth b/c of his weak arm.
Young was drafted third b/c of his Wonderlic score.

None of these guys are truly comparable to Luck. Barring injury, he's the consensus #1 pick and is generally considered "can't miss." The last QB that was true of is probably Elway in 83...that's 29 years between drafts. In those 29 years, a QB was taken #1 15 times. Of those 15, the only argument you could really make for "can't miss lock first overall pick" is MAYBE Aikman in 89. But even then, he was neck and neck with Mandarich and Sanders because he had broken his ankle at OU and transferred to UCLA. A lot of people thought Mandarich would be the best OL ever.

11 - Newton -- questions about his adaptability to the pro offense
10 -- Bradford -- Suh regarded as a better pick by many
09 - Stafford -- many thought Sanchez better
07 - Russell -- many thought Megatron better
05 - Smith -- Edwards/Rogers thought better
04 - Eli -- trade to NY/Rivers considered as good
03 - Palmer -- Rogers/Johnson considered as good
02 - Carr -- trick offense, Harrington and Peppers considered as good
01 - Vick -- not projected as a QB, SD traded the pick
99 - Couch -- McNabb/Smith thought as good
98 - Peyton -- Leaf/Woodson considered as good
93 - Bledsoe -- Mirer as good
90 - George -- ATL gave up the pick
89 - Aikman -- Mandarich/Sanders, ankle & transfer concerns
87 - Vinny -- Product of a system, choked in nat champ
83 - Elway.

I don't think folks appreciate the historical context Luck is in.

He's REALLY that good.

yep, the consensus evaluation is what swayed me. if there were more negatives like you typically see per above QBs, then wouldn't be sure? but so far all i've read were consensus, no brainer #1 on Luck.

bottom line......we need a quality QB for the long term, Alex Smith ain't it and i wouldn't put all my eggs in a CK or Tolzien basket. in this scenario, go Luck.

 

[tzill]

Deep.... I'm not saying pass on Luck... if there was a chance to get him I would go for him. I would love it if he were a Niner. I agree that if you get that right QB you are a contender pretty much every year. But to trade Willis for a guy who may or may not be that QB is not something I would be jumping at the chance to do. (Although he probably will be that guy)


tzil... I don't see how my logic is all over. I'm saying that for every great college athlete that succeeds in the pros, there are probably 10 who fail. College success doesn't guarantee pro success is all I am trying to say.

Here's what you posted:

OK...so he's regarded as the best since Elway... that means dick in the NFL. And Tom Brady wasn't even on anybodies radar. All I am saying is evaluating talent is in no way an exact science.

As for Lebron and Strausburg... basketball is much easier to hit on "can't miss" guys and Strausburg has already had one season ending surgery.

Here's what I understand your arguments to be (correct me if I'm wrong):
1. Being highly regarded means nothing in the NFL;
2. Elite players get overlooked;
3. Basketball drafting is more "exact;"
4. Players get injured.

Do you see how 1 is wrong (every team puts tons of work into the draft), 2 is not at issue (Luck isn't overlooked), 3 is unsupported (you don't back up that claim at all), and 4 has nothing to do with what we're discussing (any player can get injured at any time, it doesn't mean he was incorrectly evaluated). You're all over the place.

Now, to address your main point (nothing is certain). Sure, who could argue that? By that logic PWillie could fall off this weekend and never again be the player he is. It's possible, but not the way to bet. Similarly, Luck could be a bust. It's possible, but not the way to bet. So the discussion really comes down to: who is MORE LIKELY to add the most value to his team over his remaining career.

My position: Andrew Luck. Your position, I guess: Patrick Willis.

You may be right, I may be right. It's hypothetical. I will say this....I don't think there's a GM in the NFL would would take your position. Can't prove that, but I'm fairly confident I'm right.

 

[calsnowskier]

You're arguing from the wrong side here Cal. The question on the table is "would you trade Willis (a known PB player) for Luck (an expected once in a generation player)." Your point is "elite players get overlooked all the time." Nobody is arguing that, it happens every year (see Rogers, Aaron, e.g.).

Luck is not overlooked, so it's apples and oranges. If your larger point is "the draft is inexact" then make that point (again). Again, the best comparable is Elway. Elway wasn't a 100% sure thing, but he was pretty much as close as it gets.

I like PWillie...a LOT. But I'd trade him in a fucking heartbeat for Luck. However, this is moot as no sane GM would give up Luck for anything less than PWillie, VD, and three first rounders.

If the Niners were a crap team, and all they had was Willis, than sure, let's roll the dice. 1 elite QB is more valuable than 1 elite MLB in a vacuum.

The fact is that the Niners appear to be an upper echelon team now and Willis is the key component to the #1 defense in the NFL.

Why blow up the store when sales are fine?

My point for listing other elite QBs and QB busts is to show that all elite QBs are not #1 in the draft and all #1 in the draft are not elite QB. Are all comparisons 100% on the dot exact? No, but that is impossible.

This comes down to giving up an established HOF level player entering his prime on a team that might be on the verge of a serious run for a kid who has never taken a snap in the NFL.

I will take the established filthy good over the potential generational good in IN THIS CIRCUMSTANCE.

 

[deep9er]

If the Niners were a crap team, and all they had was Willis, than sure, let's roll the dice. 1 elite QB is more valuable than 1 elite MLB in a vacuum.

The fact is that the Niners appear to be an upper echelon team now and Willis is the key component to the #1 defense in the NFL.

Why blow up the store when sales are fine?

My point for listing other elite QBs and QB busts is to show that all elite QBs are not #1 in the draft and all #1 in the draft are not elite QB. Are all comparisons 100% on the dot exact? No, but that is impossible.

This comes down to giving up an established HOF level player entering his prime on a team that might be on the verge of a serious run for a kid who has never taken a snap in the NFL.

I will take the established filthy good over the potential generational good in IN THIS CIRCUMSTANCE.

we are NOT fine......if you project ahead?

you're being swayed now by only six games. if we keep Alex Smith next 5-6 years, how confident are you we contend for a SB? not just make the play-offs but contend?

Luck could very well be a HOF QB, everyone thinks so but a few 49er fans. why? cause Willis is a 49er.

 

[calsnowskier]

we are NOT fine......if you project ahead?

you're being swayed now by only six games. if we keep Alex Smith next 5-6 years, how confident are you we contend for a SB? not just make the play-offs but contend?

Luck could very well be a HOF QB, everyone thinks so but a few 49er fans. why? cause Willis is a 49er.

YOU are assuming the only options here are...

Trade Willis for Luck

OR

Resign Alex Smith to a long term deal and commit to him for 6 years.


I never said Smith is an AWESOME long term solution. I think he is doing a pretty good Trent Dilfer impersonation. That is all.

 

[tzill]

If the Niners were a crap team, and all they had was Willis, than sure, let's roll the dice. 1 elite QB is more valuable than 1 elite MLB in a vacuum.

The fact is that the Niners appear to be an upper echelon team now and Willis is the key component to the #1 defense in the NFL.

Why blow up the store when sales are fine?

My point for listing other elite QBs and QB busts is to show that all elite QBs are not #1 in the draft and all #1 in the draft are not elite QB. Are all comparisons 100% on the dot exact? No, but that is impossible.

This comes down to giving up an established HOF level player entering his prime on a team that might be on the verge of a serious run for a kid who has never taken a snap in the NFL.

I will take the established filthy good over the potential generational good in IN THIS CIRCUMSTANCE.

Fair enough. My thinking is that an Andrew Luck only comes along once a generation, so I'd jump at the chance to get him. OTOH, it really doesn't matter as whoever ends up with the #1 pick is going to keep him anyway.

 

[calsnowskier]

Fair enough. My thinking is that an Andrew Luck only comes along once a generation, so I'd jump at the chance to get him. OTOH, it really doesn't matter as whoever ends up with the #1 pick is going to keep him anyway.

This...

However, If Indy or StL get it, there is a chance they will shop the pick. Peyton has reportedly whined about getting Luck in camp (no link, I just heard some talk on the local radio) and the Lambs have Bradford, so they may opt for the treasure trove of players to build around Bradford instead.

Miami will absolutely take Luck.

 

[wartyOne]

Nothing to see here, folks...move along.

Are you suggesting Young was a better QB for the 9ers?

 

[deep9er]

YOU are assuming the only options here are...

Trade Willis for Luck

OR

Resign Alex Smith to a long term deal and commit to him for 6 years.


I never said Smith is an AWESOME long term solution. I think he is doing a pretty good Trent Dilfer impersonation. That is all.

one of the reasons for choosing Luck is the 'long term' picture. i just used Alex Smith to illustrate the long term picture. if you pass on Luck, you still have to obtain a quality QB.

yes, we can keep Willis and search for another QB, but we've been searching for near a decade now? obviously, it isn't easy finding a quality QB. the NFL is a QB driven league, not MLB driven.

 

[deep9er]

as someone mentioned earlier, Baltimore is a good team but can't get over the hump, but they've had Ray Lewis - a hall of fame MLB - for YEARS.

they did win a SB (2000?) but how many stars will have to align for that to happen now? the far easier way is to have a "Manning", a "Brady", or a "Rodgers".

 

[freaak]

I might have to rethink this thread since I just met Willis!

Sweet! Impressions?

 

[calsnowskier]

one of the reasons for choosing Luck is the 'long term' picture. i just used Alex Smith to illustrate the long term picture. if you pass on Luck, you still have to obtain a quality QB.

yes, we can keep Willis and search for another QB, but we've been searching for near a decade now? obviously, it isn't easy finding a quality QB. the NFL is a QB driven league, not MLB driven.

Again, I am not arguing that point. If you can GUARANTEE me that Luck = Elway, than sure, lets make the trade. And it took Elway almost his entire career to get a ring before he finally went on a tear at the end.

But Todd Van Poppel was supposed to be the best pitcher in the game for years to come.

Sam Bowe was better than Akeem Olajuwan and Michael Jordan.

I believe Luck will be a stud. But I KNOW Willis is a stud. The Niners are winning right now. Let's not mess with it.

IF the Niners end up losing the next 10 games, then I will adjust my stance. But if they do as I suspect, and go something like 7-3, than I do not want to blow up the team.

 

[calsnowskier]

as someone mentioned earlier, Baltimore is a good team but can't get over the hump, but they've had Ray Lewis - a hall of fame MLB - for YEARS.

they did win a SB (2000?) but how many stars will have to align for that to happen now? the far easier way is to have a "Manning", a "Brady", or a "Rodgers".

Baltimore won the SB with Ray Lewis and Trent Dilfer. Meanwhile, Denver won 8 straight SBs with Elway.

Oh wait, never mind...

 

[NinerSickness]

Comparing this to the Joe Montana thing is a bit extreme. The 49ers knew they had an MVP QB in Steve Young who just took them to the NFC Championship.

Ok, if we're going to play that game then Bowman is the replacement for Willis. That's more than fine with me if the Niners can get an immesureably more valuable franchise QB.

The 49ers would look stupid as hell to give away so much for the next Tim Couch or Matt Leinart, which is still a very real possibility for Luck.

And they'd look even stupider if they had a chance to trade for him and they didn't while watching Luck have a HOF career with another team. An all pro' ILB is worth a shot at a franchise QB.

Whatever positive things Harbaugh and Baalke put together this off season, would all be wiped away in one fell swoop if this type of trade went down.

Or... Ooooooorrrrrr they make the jump from good team to SB contender.

 

[wartyOne]

Comparing this to the Joe Montana thing is a bit extreme. The 49ers knew they had an MVP QB in Steve Young who just took them to the NFC Championship.

Ok, if we're going to play that game then Bowman is the replacement for Willis. That's more than fine with me if the Niners can get an immesureably more valuable franchise QB.

The 49ers would look stupid as hell to give away so much for the next Tim Couch or Matt Leinart, which is still a very real possibility for Luck.

And they'd look even stupider if they had a chance to trade for him and they didn't while watching Luck have a HOF career with another team. An all pro' ILB is worth a shot at a franchise QB.

Whatever positive things Harbaugh and Baalke put together this off season, would all be wiped away in one fell swoop if this type of trade went down.

Or... Ooooooorrrrrr they make the jump from good team to SB contender.

I'll one up that. The best ILB of all time isn't the same worth to a team as a franchise QB.

Having said that, trading Montana to allow Young to become the starter was the wrong decision. I would have rather traded Young and let Montana finish his career here. At absolute worst, Montana would have accomplished what Young did.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'll one up that. The best ILB of all time isn't the same worth to a team as a franchise QB.

Having said that, trading Montana to allow Young to become the starter was the wrong decision. I would have rather traded Young and let Montana finish his career here. At absolute worst, Montana would have accomplished what Young did.

I think they should have given the job to Elvis and called it a day.