Jay Bruce and the quest for 500 career homeruns

[Omar 382]

Rafael Palmeiro: 194
David Ortiz: 231
Gary Sheffield: 236
Mark McGwire: 238
Ted Williams: 265
Willie McCovey: 268
Eddie Murray: 275

Those top 4 guys have something in common.

The first three are gonna' end up on the wrong side of that wall any day now.... not sure why McGwire is on the list?

 

[soxfan1468927]

The first three are gonna' end up on the wrong side of that wall any day now.... not sure why McGwire is on the list?

Because it's a list of players who hit 500 home runs but had fewer than Jay Bruce entering their age-31 season.

 

[Omar 382]

Because it's a list of players who hit 500 home runs but had fewer than Jay Bruce entering their age-31 season.

I was making a joke about Palmeiro, Ortiz, and Sheffield all being Hispanic. I assumed you were saying that first four were aided in their late career power surges by PED’s.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I was making a joke about Palmeiro, Ortiz, and Sheffield all being Hispanic. I assumed you were saying that first four were aided in their late career power surges by PED’s.

Gary Sheffield is Hispanic?

 

[Omar 382]

Gary Sheffield is Hispanic?

Ok so technically he was born in Tampa (though I haven't seen a birth certificate... just saying), but you're forgetting his feud with Fausto Carmona Roberto Hernandez, and that he made these comments to GQ Magazine:

"Sheffield (a Detroit Tiger at the time) was quoted saying that there are more Latin baseball players than African-American players because Latinos are easier to control. 'What I said is that you're going to see more black faces, but there ain't no English going to be coming out. ... (It's about) being able to tell (Latin players) what to do — being able to control them.... Where I'm from, you can't control us." He continued "They have more to lose than we do. You can send them back across the island. You can't send us back. We're already here.'"

Methinks Sheffield doth protest too much.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Ok so technically he was born in Tampa (though I haven't seen a birth certificate... just saying), but you're forgetting his feud with Fausto Carmona Roberto Hernandez, and that he made these comments to GQ Magazine:

"Sheffield (a Detroit Tiger at the time) was quoted saying that there are more Latin baseball players than African-American players because Latinos are easier to control. 'What I said is that you're going to see more black faces, but there ain't no English going to be coming out. ... (It's about) being able to tell (Latin players) what to do — being able to control them.... Where I'm from, you can't control us." He continued "They have more to lose than we do. You can send them back across the island. You can't send us back. We're already here.'"

Methinks Sheffield doth protest too much.

Yeah I don't think that means he's Hispanic. Quite the opposite.

 

[Omar 382]

Gary Sheffield is Hispanic?

Lol, but wow, I had always thought Sheffield was Hispanic. Granted, I started seriously watching baseball around 2006, and he retired in '09, but I still saw him play quite a bit from that last year with the Mets (plus, he was still touted as one of the better players in baseball during that time period).

Anyway, does this little incident make me racist?

 

[Omar 382]

Yeah I don't think that means he's Hispanic. Quite the opposite.

Yeah, ok. More MSM garbage to cover up Selig mass immigrating illegals to play in MLB!!!

 

[navamind]

what

 

[Omar 382]

This whole Sheffield thing reminds me of this gem. Eric Cartman can really sing

 

[Omar 382]

what

Great- just great! Another Bud Selig administration shill spreading disinformation! Go spew your NWO lies somewhere else, shill!

 

[richig07]

You have to admit, at age 30 and with 277 homeruns already amassed, Jay Bruce has a legitimate shot at 500 career homeruns. From here on out, alot will depend on his health, genetics, and playing environment. But he certainly has a shot.

Do the unofficial HOF career watermakrs (500 homeruns, 3000 hits) need to change? Are they unrealistic now? Probably. Consider the case of Fred McGriff.

McGriff hit 493 homeruns. He has the highest homerun total of any player eligible for the HOF who has not been blacklisted. A mere 7 at bats, which he hit the ball over the fence but the outfielder made a leaping grab to pull the ball back in. In his long career, that had to have happened at least 7 times, right? And those 7 stolen homeruns are the difference between him being in the HOF and not being in the HOF.

As unofficial guidelines, the career watermarks kinda suck.

The problem is, that only the minority of really power hitters avoid falling off of that cliff in their mid-30's. A lot of power hitters have appeared to have had great odds at hitting 50 around the age of 30. They might even reach 400 relatively young, like Adam Dunn did. Then, so many just run into injuries or lose it.

He'll have to continue hitting 35-40 over the next 3-4 years to position himself for a realistic shot.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Jay Bruce is the 38th player to reach 277 HRs before his age-31 season. 20 of the 37 before him have hit 500 HRs, with one likely to get there (Miguel Cabrera). Here are the top HR hitters through the age-30 season who didn't reach 500 HRs. 9 out of the 16 didn't even reach 400 HRs.

Andruw Jones: 368 (finished with 434)
Juan Gonzalez: 362 (434)
Adam Dunn: 354 (462)
Ralph Kiner: 329 (369)
Duke Snider: 316 (407)
Johnny Bench: 310 (389)
Vladimir Guerrero: 305 (449)
Rocky Colavito: 302 (374)
Jose Canseco: 300 (462)
Lou Gehrig: 299 (493)
Prince Fielder: 288 (319)
Darryl Strawberry: 285 (335)
Orlando Cepeda: 284 (379)
Boog Powell: 280 (339)
Ron Santo: 279 (342)
Troy Glaus: 277 (320)

Then here are the 7 players who did reach 500 HRs but didn't have 277 before their age-31 season, listed by fewest HRs to most

Rafael Palmeiro: 194
David Ortiz: 231
Gary Sheffield: 236
Mark McGwire: 238
Ted Williams: 265
Willie McCovey: 268
Eddie Murray: 275

Those top 4 guys have something in common.

except those 4 had a much better BA and OBP... reason i am bringing that up is because any type of down year for bruce, and there wont be many teams trying to get him... he will be a defensive liability POWER only player on the decline... i don't think any team will allow him time to break it if he doesn't average 30+ hRs a season...

so basically, if he doesn't break it by 2024, then he wont break it no matter what...

 

[JohnU]

except those 4 had a much better BA and OBP... reason i am bringing that up is because any type of down year for bruce, and there wont be many teams trying to get him... he will be a defensive liability POWER only player on the decline... i don't think any team will allow him time to break it if he doesn't average 30+ hRs a season...

so basically, if he doesn't break it by 2024, then he wont break it no matter what...

I think it's fair to predict that he's not going to have one of those breakout seasons where he hits 53 or 54 home runs to cover up for the years when he only hits 23 or 24. As well, I think Bruce eventually is going to have to face the music on the shift and learn to hit to left field. Those are not going to be home runs.

 

[soxfan1468927]

except those 4 had a much better BA and OBP... reason i am bringing that up is because any type of down year for bruce, and there wont be many teams trying to get him... he will be a defensive liability POWER only player on the decline... i don't think any team will allow him time to break it if he doesn't average 30+ hRs a season...

so basically, if he doesn't break it by 2024, then he wont break it no matter what...

I just provided that information for fun and because I'm a really cool person.

 

[dougplayer]

May Bruce. Only way he reaches 500...to stay in weaker national league. If he was to come to American league...his ass would be lucky to hit another 50 Hrs. True fact

 

[navamind]

May Bruce. Only way he reaches 500...to stay in weaker national league. If he was to come to American league...his ass would be lucky to hit another 50 Hrs. True fact

He'd hit 60 if he got to face the Tigers, Twins, White Sox and Royals 70+ times a year. Garbage division.

 

[JohnU]

May Bruce. Only way he reaches 500...to stay in weaker national league. If he was to come to American league...his ass would be lucky to hit another 50 Hrs. True fact

Are you a troll?

 

[dougplayer]

Are you a troll?

No Iam not. I just tell the truth.
Does that hurt your feelings mary???

 

[JohnU]

No Iam not. I just tell the truth.
Does that hurt your feelings mary???

Actually you aren't a troll.
You are just stupid.