Jay Bruce and the quest for 500 career homeruns

[PolarVortex]

You have to admit, at age 30 and with 277 homeruns already amassed, Jay Bruce has a legitimate shot at 500 career homeruns. From here on out, alot will depend on his health, genetics, and playing environment. But he certainly has a shot.

Do the unofficial HOF career watermakrs (500 homeruns, 3000 hits) need to change? Are they unrealistic now? Probably. Consider the case of Fred McGriff.

McGriff hit 493 homeruns. He has the highest homerun total of any player eligible for the HOF who has not been blacklisted. A mere 7 at bats, which he hit the ball over the fence but the outfielder made a leaping grab to pull the ball back in. In his long career, that had to have happened at least 7 times, right? And those 7 stolen homeruns are the difference between him being in the HOF and not being in the HOF.

As unofficial guidelines, the career watermarks kinda suck.

 

[soxfan1468927]

You're right on Jay Bruce, he does have a legit thought at 500. Good catch there.

I've always thought the milestones should just be that, milestones. They are really arbitrary numbers that shouldn't be automatic to induction into the HOF. Should be the best players and McGriff doesn't suddenly become THAT much better of a player if he gets to 500. Yet, it's widely noted that if he had gotten to 500 HRs he would be in the HOF, but since he hasn't, he doesn't even get 25% of the vote. Seems like a big swing over just 7 HRs.

Carlos Delgado is another example. He was one and done on the ballot and hit 473 HRs, but he was pretty much done at 36 and didn't have a full season until he was 24. If he had hung around for a couple years, got to 500, and was mediocre, would that make him a better player? I don't think so. Yet he would probably be a HOFer, but instead he's one and done.

So yes, I agree that those marks suck.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I am a big milestone guy... I think if you reach one you should make the HOF... but i do think milestones need to change with the times... my rule for a milestone is to take a GREAT season and multiply it by 15... 33 HRs is no longer a GREAT season... 200 Hits is... so i am good with 3000 hits... but i think the times demands a higher HR milestone...

 

[JohnU]

I think the men/women who choose the HOF are probably aware of these intangibles so whatever direction they take seems to either be one of common sense or fierce loyalty to traditions. In either event, somebody is propping up some standards that we, as fans, are noticing. I can't believe the voters are that divorced from the same things we see as to blindly ignore the nuances.

As for Bruce, he's going to average 30-40 dingers if he gets his at-bats. I see where the Mets are seriously planning to use him more at 1B now, so that might keep him away from right field walls, where he's become something of an adventure. I don't see him getting to 500, though.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

and does anyone really think IFF Jay Bruce hits 500 that he wont be seen as one of the best HR hitters of all time?? he still has 223 left that is an average of 32 HRs a year for 7 more seasons...

if he does that, try telling me you wont consider him one of the best...

 

[JohnU]

and does anyone really think IFF Jay Bruce hits 500 that he wont be seen as one of the best HR hitters of all time?? he still has 223 left that is an average of 32 HRs a year for 7 more seasons...

if he does that, try telling me you wont consider him one of the best...

One of the best HR hitters of all time would put him on a list, so I guess ... yeah, that would qualify him.
Another 7 seasons at 32 HR a year ... not sure that's a reachable goal, certainly is possible. Others have done it.
Bruce hit a lot of his HR in a porch-friendly ballpark, and i don't know if he can sustain those numbers in places that aren't as conducive to dead-pull power.
Bruce's other problem is his propensity for long slumps that are acceptable on teams that are losing 90 games a year, but maybe not for teams that have more depth and are in contention. So we shall see.
I always liked Bruce, hated to see the Reds trade him. He's a very nice asset to an offense when he's not in one of his slumps.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

One of the best HR hitters of all time would put him on a list, so I guess ... yeah, that would qualify him.
Another 7 seasons at 32 HR a year ... not sure that's a reachable goal, certainly is possible. Others have done it.
Bruce hit a lot of his HR in a porch-friendly ballpark, and i don't know if he can sustain those numbers in places that aren't as conducive to dead-pull power.
Bruce's other problem is his propensity for long slumps that are acceptable on teams that are losing 90 games a year, but maybe not for teams that have more depth and are in contention. So we shall see.
I always liked Bruce, hated to see the Reds trade him. He's a very nice asset to an offense when he's not in one of his slumps.

my point though is simple, this thread is basically saying that 500 HRs is a terrible milestone BECAUSE what if Bruce reaches that milestone... IF he does reach it, then can we really look at his career for what it is today?? isn't it what he becomes after he reaches it and retires??

Longevity is a stat too!!!

 

[PolarVortex]

and does anyone really think IFF Jay Bruce hits 500 that he wont be seen as one of the best HR hitters of all time?? he still has 223 left that is an average of 32 HRs a year for 7 more seasons...

if he does that, try telling me you wont consider him one of the best...

The best generally receive quite a bit of recognition for being the best. That recognition comes in the form of all star selections, silver slugger and gold glove awards, MVP votes, etc. Through 10 years, Bruce only has three All Star selections and never finished higher than 10th in the MVP. He has two silver sluggers and zero GGs. He has never lead the league in any offensive nor defensive category.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I don't think that, now he's a Met again, there is any question of him reaching 500 dingers.

He won't.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

The best generally receive quite a bit of recognition for being the best. That recognition comes in the form of all star selections, silver slugger and gold glove awards, MVP votes, etc. Through 10 years, Bruce only has three All Star selections and never finished higher than 10th in the MVP. He has two silver sluggers and zero GGs. He has never lead the league in any offensive nor defensive category.

sure, but if he is going to be good for another 7 seasons, what is saying that he wont have some in the future... remember in this hypothetical we are assuming He DOES REACH 500...

 

[PolarVortex]

my point though is simple, this thread is basically saying that 500 HRs is a terrible milestone BECAUSE what if Bruce reaches that milestone... IF he does reach it, then can we really look at his career for what it is today?? isn't it what he becomes after he reaches it and retires??

Longevity is a stat too!!!

Sure longevity is a stat. Compilers get recognition too. But the players who are considered the best are generally not in the Compiler's wing. They are in the dominator's wing. The qualifications for the dominator's wing never change. You only need to play 10 seasons (Koufax) and you can get in. To make it in the Compiler's wing, you better have 18+ seasons and be prepared for the watermarks to adjust by era.

 

[soxfan1468927]

sure, but if he is going to be good for another 7 seasons, what is saying that he wont have some in the future... remember in this hypothetical we are assuming He DOES REACH 500...

Wouldn't that depend on how he reached the milestone? If he reaches it in 7 years, yes that's 32 HRs per year. What if he reaches it in 10? That's only 22 HRs per year.

 

[PolarVortex]

I don't think that, now he's a Met again, there is any question of him reaching 500 dingers.

He won't.

I don't know about that, Captain. Y'alls been putting up some pretty sweet homerun totals lately. Conforto hit 27 in, what, 105 games? That Conforto, Cespedes, Bruce outfielder could produce 100 homeruns easily if healthy.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

I sure hope he gets to 500, preferably 120 of those come in the next 3 years.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I don't know about that, Captain. Y'alls been putting up some pretty sweet homerun totals lately. Conforto hit 27 in, what, 105 games? That Conforto, Cespedes, Bruce outfielder could produce 100 homeruns easily if healthy.

Your last two words say it all...

I'm not sure yet if they want him in the outfield, or back at first. Dom Smith is the future at 1B but still learning. Lagares is the best defensive OF'er but can't hit, so we might be looking at a lot of platoon situations.

In any event, baseball = still dead 2 me

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Wouldn't that depend on how he reached the milestone? If he reaches it in 7 years, yes that's 32 HRs per year. What if he reaches it in 10? That's only 22 HRs per year.

but if he reaches it in 10 years then he is playing till he is 40... again Longevity is a stat too... how many players play well after 35??

Point is, this thread is assuming he does break it... so we have to assume he is at least a GOOD player from now until he does...

 

[PolarVortex]

Your last two words say it all...

I'm not sure yet if they want him in the outfield, or back at first. Dom Smith is the future at 1B but still learning. Lagares is the best defensive OF'er but can't hit, so we might be looking at a lot of platoon situations.

In any event, baseball = still dead 2 me

I watched a movie about your uncle last night. POTC4. Bad mutha fucka.

 

[JohnU]

my point though is simple, this thread is basically saying that 500 HRs is a terrible milestone BECAUSE what if Bruce reaches that milestone... IF he does reach it, then can we really look at his career for what it is today?? isn't it what he becomes after he reaches it and retires??

Longevity is a stat too!!!

Yeah I agree with that. 500 HR is a milestone. It takes awhile to get there regardless of location.

I think, had Bruce stayed in Cincy, he'd be in the Reds Hall of Fame, which is largely the result of positive fan appeal in addition to having done some above-average things. So in the smaller pond, Bruce is an above average-sized fish. He may end up in the Reds HOF someday. (They let Adam Dunn in!) Generally, good players who have been traded away are more respected there, ahead of really good ones who walked away in FA.

Longevity has been a favorite "stat" for me in looking at the game's best, mostly with pitchers from the olden days like Walter Johnson and Pete Alexander.

My favorite example is Tony Taylor, who played middle infield for close to 20 years and was still pretty much a regular even in later years. Hardly anybody even remembers the guy.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I watched a movie about your uncle last night. POTC4. Bad mutha fucka.

You know our family is not getting ANY royalties for those films?

Stupid Diz-Knee

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Yeah I agree with that. 500 HR is a milestone. It takes awhile to get there regardless of location.

I think, had Bruce stayed in Cincy, he'd be in the Reds Hall of Fame, which is largely the result of positive fan appeal in addition to having done some above-average things. So in the smaller pond, Bruce is an above average-sized fish. He may end up in the Reds HOF someday. (They let Adam Dunn in!) Generally, good players who have been traded away are more respected there, ahead of really good ones who walked away in FA.

Longevity has been a favorite "stat" for me in looking at the game's best, mostly with pitchers from the olden days like Walter Johnson and Pete Alexander.

My favorite example is Tony Taylor, who played middle infield for close to 20 years and was still pretty much a regular even in later years. Hardly anybody even remembers the guy.

tony taylor is not a good example... i hope you meant someone else...