Jay Bruce and the quest for 500 career homeruns

[soxfan1468927]

but if he reaches it in 10 years then he is playing till he is 40... again Longevity is a stat too... how many players play well after 35??

Point is, this thread is assuming he does break it... so we have to assume he is at least a GOOD player from now until he does...

I don't agree with that assumption. If he hits: 28, 28, 28, 28, 28, 20, 20, 18, 18, 17 over the next 10 years, he would have 500 HRs. I understand longevity is a thing, but those numbers don't guarantee he was a good player. Roughned Odor hit 30 HRs last year and I wouldn't say he was a good player at all.

 

[PolarVortex]

You know our family is not getting ANY royalties for those films?

Stupid Diz-Knee

Well, good ole Walt was known to be anti-Semitic. I'd sue those assholes.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I don't agree with that assumption. If he hits: 28, 28, 28, 28, 28, 20, 20, 18, 18, 17 over the next 10 years, he would have 500 HRs. I understand longevity is a thing, but those numbers don't guarantee he was a good player. Roughned Odor hit 30 HRs last year and I wouldn't say he was a good player at all.

fine, there are ways that he can break it without being a good player... But do you really think a team would be starting an old fart who can ONLY hit HRs but apparently doesn't do much of that either.... we could talk semantics all you want, but when can we start talking logically??

 

[PolarVortex]

fine, there are ways that he can break it without being a good player... But do you really think a team would be starting an old fart who can ONLY hit HRs but apparently doesn't do much of that either.... we could talk semantics all you want, but when can we start talking logically??

All or nothing players becoming more and more common, even guys who realistically can't be counted on for more than 15-20 homeruns. There are more in the game today, with starting jobs, than at any other time in MLB history. Why do you think 'the shift' has become such useful defensive strategy? We are even starting to see shifts on right-handed hitters now.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I don't agree with that assumption. If he hits: 28, 28, 28, 28, 28, 20, 20, 18, 18, 17 over the next 10 years, he would have 500 HRs.

A quick look at his career stats suggests that if he can play the entire year, every year, this is all attainable. But that assumes good health and no injuries while he ages. For a lot of guys, the end comes rapidly.

 

[JohnU]

tony taylor is not a good example... i hope you meant someone else...

It was either him or Tony the Tiger

Tony Taylor Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

 

[soxfan1468927]

fine, there are ways that he can break it without being a good player... But do you really think a team would be starting an old fart who can ONLY hit HRs but apparently doesn't do much of that either.... we could talk semantics all you want, but when can we start talking logically??

I don't see why that's so unbelievable

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I don't see why that's so unbelievable

So, you are really going to have a 35+ year old DH who Barely hits 20 hrs and barely has a .230 BA. Yea. That is realistic. You really think that player is going to get a contract??

 

[soxfan1468927]

So, you are really going to have a 35+ year old DH who Barely hits 20 hrs and barely has a .230 BA. Yea. That is realistic. You really think that player is going to get a contract??

Yeah, that is realistic because it happens.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Are there any NON-PED players who hit 500

Not in the HOF?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Yeah, that is realistic because it happens.

Can we at least agree that if he does reach 500 hrs. He is most likely to have at least 4 seasons around his career averages.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Are there any NON-PED players who hit 500

Not in the HOF?

Nope. The top HR hitters, who have already been voted on:

1. Barry Bonds: 762
2. Sammy Sosa: 609
3. Mark McGwire: 583
4. Rafael Palmeiro: 569
5. Manny Ramirez: 555
6. Gary Sheffield: 509
7. Fred McGriff: 493

 

[soxfan1468927]

Can we at least agree that if he does reach 500 hrs. He is most likely to have at least 4 seasons around his career averages.

Sure.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Nope. The top HR hitters, who have already been voted on:

1. Barry Bonds: 762
2. Sammy Sosa: 609
3. Mark McGwire: 583
4. Rafael Palmeiro: 569
5. Manny Ramirez: 555
6. Gary Sheffield: 509
7. Fred McGriff: 493

Wow, lets see how this "juiced ball" era goes, cause at this rate, they just may have to adjust the 500 benchmark

 

[tducey]

Have always liked Jay Bruce as a player. Hoping he does get to 500 HR.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Bruce seems like the type of guy whose batting average is going to hover around the mendoza line in a few years, hence won't be good enough to keep playing to get anywhere near 500 homers....think Troy Glaus, Greg Vaughn, Carlos Pena.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Bruce seems like the type of guy whose batting average is going to hover around the mendoza line in a few years, hence won't be good enough to keep playing to get anywhere near 500 homers....think Troy Glaus, Greg Vaughn, Carlos Pena.

Funny you should mention Troy Glaus. Going into his age-31 season, he had exactly 277 HRs like Bruce.

 

[Omar 382]

Jay Bruce will likely announce in December of 2026 his plans to retire after the 2027 season while sitting at 475 home runs, there will be intense discussion about whether or not he will get to 500 all throughout the 2027 season, he will get to 499 career home runs on the penultimate game of the season, and then will play his final game. He'll be penciled into the three-hole in between J.P. Crawford and Rhys Hoskins for the final game (Bruce signed with the Phillies in the 2023 offseason, and has won 3 straights WS championships with them).

After going 0-4, and the score showing the Phillies leading 10-2 in the bottom of the 8th inning, Jay comes to the plate for one final plate appearance at The Bank. A crack, and a drive- that baby's taking off- and a fan reaches over the wall and snags the ball! They're calling it a ground-rule double! <Color commentator: And remember, Rob Manfred abolished replay on home runs due to time restraints last offseason> Oh no- replay clearly shows that ball would have been gone! What was the fan thinking!?!

Pan to close-up shot of @Cedrique in the right field bleachers, right behind the fan who robbed the home run.

Cedrique- "Don't bring me down...........Bruce"

 

[Omar 382]

Critics are calling the new Jay Bruce three-year, $39 million deal “just fine” and “perfectly mediocre.”

 

[soxfan1468927]

Jay Bruce is the 38th player to reach 277 HRs before his age-31 season. 20 of the 37 before him have hit 500 HRs, with one likely to get there (Miguel Cabrera). Here are the top HR hitters through the age-30 season who didn't reach 500 HRs. 9 out of the 16 didn't even reach 400 HRs.

Andruw Jones: 368 (finished with 434)
Juan Gonzalez: 362 (434)
Adam Dunn: 354 (462)
Ralph Kiner: 329 (369)
Duke Snider: 316 (407)
Johnny Bench: 310 (389)
Vladimir Guerrero: 305 (449)
Rocky Colavito: 302 (374)
Jose Canseco: 300 (462)
Lou Gehrig: 299 (493)
Prince Fielder: 288 (319)
Darryl Strawberry: 285 (335)
Orlando Cepeda: 284 (379)
Boog Powell: 280 (339)
Ron Santo: 279 (342)
Troy Glaus: 277 (320)

Then here are the 7 players who did reach 500 HRs but didn't have 277 before their age-31 season, listed by fewest HRs to most

Rafael Palmeiro: 194
David Ortiz: 231
Gary Sheffield: 236
Mark McGwire: 238
Ted Williams: 265
Willie McCovey: 268
Eddie Murray: 275

Those top 4 guys have something in common.