Is Trent Baalke Andy Reid 2.0

[ChrisPozz]

We had this discussion about a decade ago on the BSPN forum; and we were asking if it's better to have a GM who makes vanilla personnel moves to make the team consistently good but rarely in a position to win the big one, or is it better to have a GM who is willing to screw future caps a bit for the sake of ramming through a potential Super Bowl window-of-opportunity. Either one could win or lose based on the last 2 factors you mentioned, but which one is better?

I noticed Trent Baalke has been unwilling to make moves in FA to put the team over the top the last few years. He's fielded great talent, but I think he's almost-irresponsibly neglected certain holes on the team when he had the opportunity to fill 'em (by sacrificing long-term success). He had the opportunity to go after guys like Steve Smith in 2011 (on the trading block) or Mike Wallace in 2012 (sacrificing the pick that became AJ Jenkins) or sign a FA to address the dire need for depth on the DL the last couple of years. But he chose to be conservative. I'm not saying the team would've won any of those years' Super Bowls if he did make those moves, but I was very frustrated that he didn't.

If they traded a first rounder for Mike Wallace they would've won the Super Bowl. Mike Wallace instead of a washed-up Randy Moss or a craptastic Kyle Williams? That team would've been unstoppable.

And that's what I mean about Baalke's strategy. He'll field an extremely talented team, but he seems to live by the school of thought that it's better to consistently be good over a long period of time than add a few pieces in FA to field one absolutely stacked team in a Super Bowl run.

I'm not saying it's always a bad thing; you can win a SB either way (depending on luck & injuries). But I really would've preferred to have screwed future caps a little in order to have solved the WR & D-line depth problems over the last 3 years. And those weren't just problems people could see in hindsight; I was talking about these problems & potential short-term fixes beforehand.

Wow! I'm not sure Sick and I have ever thought this together on something outside of maybe some draft eligible players. I was pretty selective in picking what I wanted to make bold but those bolded comments really hit me and are things I agree with ALMOST identically. I'd have worded the unbolded things a little bit differently myself but the bolded stuff have been things that I've been thinking about over and over a lot lately.

 

[yossarian]

Wow! I'm not sure Sick and I have ever thought this together on something outside of maybe some draft eligible players. I was pretty selective in picking what I wanted to make bold but those bolded comments really hit me and are things I agree with ALMOST identically. I'd have worded the unbolded things a little bit differently myself but the bolded stuff have been things that I've been thinking about over and over a lot lately.

And if Alex Smith gets too cautious (what are the odds of that happening in the NFC Title game?), and doesn't pull the trigger to throw to a burner like Mike Wallace and we still lose, then we have cap issues and maybe we lose more players the Super Bowl year and last year?
I know these close losses the last three years are devastating, and because they're close anyone can pick one single thing; Kaepernick hitting an open receiver for 10 yards instead of forcing it to Crabtree, the defense not taking the play off on 4th down when they were offsides and giving Wilson time to throw, Harbaugh not having to call timeout when Kaepernick could have run for a td over Ray Lewis, ANYONE other than Kyle Williams fielding punts, etc. But Baalke made a reasonable decision and I think by far the most understandable of anything if you want to start pinpointing causes for the losses. To me, the players in different situations didn't come through like they could have and should have and were capable of playing, and some times the players on the other team (like Boldin or Sherman), played out of their minds. We got beat by better teams on that day.

 

[MHSL82]

And if Alex Smith gets too cautious (what are the odds of that happening in the NFC Title game?), and doesn't pull the trigger to throw to a burner like Mike Wallace and we still lose, then we have cap issues and maybe we lose more players the Super Bowl year and last year?
I know these close losses the last three years are devastating, and because they're close anyone can pick one single thing; Kaepernick hitting an open receiver for 10 yards instead of forcing it to Crabtree, the defense not taking the play off on 4th down when they were offsides and giving Wilson time to throw, Harbaugh not having to call timeout when Kaepernick could have run for a td over Ray Lewis, ANYONE other than Kyle Williams fielding punts, etc. But Baalke made a reasonable decision and I think by far the most understandable of anything if you want to start pinpointing causes for the losses. To me, the players in different situations didn't come through like they could have and should have and were capable of playing, and some times the players on the other team (like Boldin or Sherman), played out of their minds. We got beat by better teams on that day.

Well it's the same thing as what was used against Smith last year. "No way we come back from 17 points down or in the Super Bowl with Smith." People will try to take one circumstance and apply it to another, as if everything else was equal. The fact is with different personnel we might have a different game plan in that game. Heck, with a different quarterback, maybe they make a different decision on the coin toss? If Atlanta doesn't respect our offense with Smith, maybe they want their defense to start as opposed to taking the ball first. That makes it a different game. Maybe we play conservative from the beginning and get a bunch of running and short pass first downs as opposed to going three and out as we did with Kaepernick? So applying that same logic, maybe we have a totally different game the Giants game. Maybe Smith with that Saints game has the confidence to pass to Wallace and throws interception instead? Different game. Maybe we have a position for a little bit longer and Kyle Williams does not get the ball punted to him at that moment?

So I think you are right in that you can't take the facts of one game and just change one little thing to make assertion. However, I believe with our coaches and personnel now with Wallace we would have a chance to win. Maybe Crabtree is more open because Wallace? Maybe Vernon Davis is more open because of Wallace and we all know that Smith will pass to Davis. Nothing is guaranteed, but the assumption is that with better players we have a least a little bit of an advantage so we did. Of course Smith has to take those shots, but different game and we were not in a different class than the Giants.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

If they traded a first rounder for Mike Wallace they would've won the Super Bowl. Mike Wallace instead of a washed-up Randy Moss or a craptastic Kyle Williams? That team would've been unstoppable.

And that's what I mean about Baalke's strategy. He'll field an extremely talented team, but he seems to live by the school of thought that it's better to consistently be good over a long period of time than add a few pieces in FA to field one absolutely stacked team in a Super Bowl run.

I'm not saying it's always a bad thing; you can win a SB either way (depending on luck & injuries). But I really would've preferred to have screwed future caps a little in order to have solved the WR & D-line depth problems over the last 3 years. And those weren't just problems people could see in hindsight; I was talking about these problems & potential short-term fixes beforehand.

Giving up a first round pick and a huge contract for Mike Wallace would have been a terrible move. Period. Even without giving up the pick, the Fins haven't gotten nearly their money's worth from him. And the Niners should have won the super bowl that year anyway, Mike Wallace or no. It's simply impossible to say they would have won with him.

 

[NinerSickness]

And if Alex Smith gets too cautious (what are the odds of that happening in the NFC Title game?), and doesn't pull the trigger to throw to a burner like Mike Wallace and we still lose, then we have cap issues and maybe we lose more players the Super Bowl year and last year?

Anything could have happened. Like I said, luck or injuries would have been uncontrollable factors. But what is certain is that the team's overall talent level would have been significantly higher with Steve Smith or Mike Wallace at WR since 2011 / 2012 respectively rather than Kyle Williams or that other scrub WR whose name I can't even remember.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Re: the Wallace thing, we've also had injuries at WR. In 2011, we lost Ginn with disastrous results. In 2012, we lost Manningham and basically had no replacement for him. Neither of those guys is spectacular, but both are a clear step above Williams.

Should Baalke have been more aggressive in FA at times? Maybe so. But we also had rather significant questions at QB going into 2011 and even 2012. It's tough to sell out the future betting on a QB who isn't elite. Particularly when you have one that you think is up-and-coming.

 

[MHSL82]

And if Alex Smith gets too cautious (what are the odds of that happening in the NFC Title game?), and doesn't pull the trigger to throw to a burner like Mike Wallace and we still lose, then we have cap issues and maybe we lose more players the Super Bowl year and last year?

I guess my specific response to this is that Smith was conservative when it came to throwing risky passes or covered guys, not all passes. So if Wallace made Crabtree, Davis, Gore, or even Wallace himself open, that makes this hypothetical less of a problem. A little bit, not a lot, of the hesitancy to throw has to be trust in the receiver, not just conservatism for conservatism sake. If Wallace warranted that trust somewhere between Crabtree and Davis levels of chemistry, it'd mitigate that concern a bit. I mean, as far as trust based upon reputation/ability, it's Wallace minus Williams/Hall/that one WR neither Sickness nor I can remember. We probably wouldn't have gotten Moss the next year.

 

[yossarian]

Look, I'm not trying to turn this into an Alex Smith thread. I remember MHSL82 that you have a high opinion of him and I don't necessarily disagree. But this thread really bothers me (no offense sickness) --- every season there are 31 teams that fell short. The last three seasons we fell short by 1 or 2 notches, and they were little things that killed us each time, whether it's a couple of inches on a kaepernick pass, the defense not playing on 4th down offsides, holds not being called in the Super Bowl, harbaugh not having to call a time out, Kaepernick seeing a different open receiver, Kyle Williams fumbling, Smith going 1 for 19 on third down, that to lay it on one specific thing -- Baalke's alleged reluctance to go balls out on free agency -- just seems ridiculous. The opportunities were there in every fucking game, every single one, we could have just has easily celebrated our third Super Bowl championship in a row, and a different series of things did us in every time. Some times there's not a general cause, it's just the way things work out.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Look, I'm not trying to turn this into an Alex Smith thread. I remember MHSL82 that you have a high opinion of him and I don't necessarily disagree. But this thread really bothers me (no offense sickness) --- every season there are 31 teams that fell short. The last three seasons we fell short by 1 or 2 notches, and they were little things that killed us each time, whether it's a couple of inches on a kaepernick pass, the defense not playing on 4th down offsides, holds not being called in the Super Bowl, harbaugh not having to call a time out, Kaepernick seeing a different open receiver, Kyle Williams fumbling, Smith going 1 for 19 on third down, that to lay it on one specific thing -- Baalke's alleged reluctance to go balls out on free agency -- just seems ridiculous. The opportunities were there in every fucking game, every single one, we could have just has easily celebrated our third Super Bowl championship in a row, and a different series of things did us in every time. Some times there's not a general cause, it's just the way things work out.

That's basically my take. Exacerbated by Sickness' inexplicable love of Mike Wallace, who is a good deep threat, but simply not worth the contract he got, not to mention the pick we would have traded.

 

[NinerSickness]

That's basically my take. Exacerbated by Sickness' inexplicable love of Mike Wallace, who is a good deep threat, but simply not worth the contract he got, not to mention the pick we would have traded.

There weren't a ton of options to acquire a WR in 2011 & 2012. Steve Smith (Carolina took trade offers) and Mike Wallce (RFA in 2011) were 2 of 'em. The philosophy of taking an already-great team & going after a piece or 2 to make it extremely great for a SB run is the one time it makes sense to over-pay for someone (unless you believe in remaining consistent long-term over loading up for a year or 2 like Andy Reid apparently did (and like Bill Belichick seemed to believe from 2010 to 2013; see the Richard Seymour trade).

Oh, and a deep threat like Mike Wallace has been the ONLY thing missing from the offense over the last few years (besides the Tin Man's brain of course).

 

[Crimsoncrew]

There weren't a ton of options to acquire a WR in 2011 & 2012. Steve Smith (Carolina took trade offers) and Mike Wallce (RFA in 2011) were 2 of 'em. The philosophy of taking an already-great team & going after a piece or 2 to make it extremely great for a SB run is the one time it makes sense to over-pay for someone (unless you believe in remaining consistent long-term over loading up for a year or 2 like Andy Reid apparently did (and like Bill Belichick seemed to believe from 2010 to 2013; see the Richard Seymour trade).

Or like Belichick from 2000-2009. Or Ozzie Newsome. Or Kevin Colbert. Or Ted Thompson. Or Jerry Reese. You keep scoffing at Andy Reid. What are your examples of GMs who have mortgaged future health for a one or two-year run in the salary cap era?

Oh, and a deep threat like Mike Wallace has been the ONLY thing missing from the offense over the last few years (besides the Tin Man's brain of course).

There's no doubt that a deep threat like Wallace would be huge for this team. But he's being paid like an elite WR, which he's not. You not only wanted to pay him, you wanted to trade a first round pick for him. That would have been a mistake. He's not worth anything near his current contract.

 

[NinerSickness]

Or like Belichick from 2000-2009. Or Ozzie Newsome. Or Kevin Colbert. Or Ted Thompson. Or Jerry Reese. You keep scoffing at Andy Reid. What are your examples of GMs who have mortgaged future health for a one or two-year run in the salary cap era?

Oh, and a deep threat like Mike Wallace has been the ONLY thing missing from the offense over the last few years (besides the Tin Man's brain of course).

There's no doubt that a deep threat like Wallace would be huge for this team. But he's being paid like an elite WR, which he's not. You not only wanted to pay him, you wanted to trade a first round pick for him. That would have been a mistake. He's not worth anything near his current contract.

If he would've been the difference between the Niners being one of the best teams in the NFL in 2011 & 2012 and being the absolute best team in the NFL over those 2 seasons how could that possibly have been a mistake? They were in a perfect position to bust through their Super Bowl window, but they went into those seasons with an obvious weakness at WR. They tried to get something for nothing by signing Moss instead & went with crappy receivers (at least as starters) like Morgan, Kyle, Ted Ginn & Chad Hall.

And since when has Ozzie Newsome not been willing to screw the cap for short-term success? He signed a bunch of players like Shannon Sharpe, Sam Adams & others I'm sure I'm forgetting. Belichick added Rodney Harrison, Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, Audalius Thomas & others I'm sure I'm forgetting during years of his Super Bowl window.

Jerry Reese signed Antrel Rolle & David Baas to the biggest safety contract in history and one of the biggest center contracts in history respectively. They paid a 17.5 million dollar signing bounus (6 years, 42 million) to Chris Canty right after wining a Super Bowl.

I'm talking about when it's already clear the Niners are one of the 2 or 3 most talented teams in the NFL if not THE most talented. That's the time to buy; it's not the time to think about the future. It's not the time to go with obvious holes on the team & cross your fingers or try something cute like going after a washed-up Randy Moss. And by the time they finally addressed the issue with the Boldin trade, Rogers, Brown & Whitner all had sharp declines in their respective abilities / performances, and they settled with going into a potential SB-winning season with a mediocre secondary. They could've signed DRC Like I wanted 'em to last offseason. They could've traded for Darrelle Revis THIS offseason like I wanted 'em to. But they're happy to go with Culliver & Brock I guess. Excuse me if I'm not impressed.

I'm not saying they can't win a SB without adding that NOS at the finish line; what I'm saying is that they may have left a trophy or 2 on the table because of that strategy. Kaepernick is not good enough to win a SB without a legendary defense IMO. The Niners' defense is great, but it's not legendary (see the secondary).

 

[whysies]

Whitner declined this year? If anything he had his best season as a 49er. Brown was the same old steady Brown. Rogers was no worse than the year before (but admittedly significantly worse than in his contract year)

I get what you're going for but singling out the secondary and saying those dudes declined doesn't help prove your point.

 

[NinerSickness]

Whitner declined this year? If anything he had his best season as a 49er. Brown was the same old steady Brown. Rogers was no worse than the year before (but admittedly significantly worse than in his contract year)

I get what you're going for but singling out the secondary and saying those dudes declined doesn't help prove your point.

Whitner's best year in SF was easily 2011. In 2012 & 2013 his coverage was crap.

And if Brown has been so steady, why did he just sign for backup money in a 1-year deal? And you can't say it's his age because it was a 1-year deal. 1 year older than 2013 isn't going to be the difference between a good starter (2011) and a borderline starter / backup caliber guy (2013 / 2014).

And Rogers??? He was one of the best CBs in the NFL in 2011. He was a liability in 2013.

I can't possibly see how someone could argue the play of the secondary didn't decline sharply from 2011 to 2013. That's mind boggling to me.

 

[erckm510]

If he would've been the difference between the Niners being one of the best teams in the NFL in 2011 & 2012 and being the absolute best team in the NFL over those 2 seasons how could that possibly have been a mistake? They were in a perfect position to bust through their Super Bowl window, but they went into those seasons with an obvious weakness at WR. They tried to get something for nothing by signing Moss instead & went with crappy receivers (at least as starters) like Morgan, Kyle, Ted Ginn & Chad Hall.

And since when has Ozzie Newsome not been willing to screw the cap for short-term success? He signed a bunch of players like Shannon Sharpe, Sam Adams & others I'm sure I'm forgetting. Belichick added Rodney Harrison, Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, Audalius Thomas & others I'm sure I'm forgetting during years of his Super Bowl window.

Jerry Reese signed Antrel Rolle & David Baas to the biggest safety contract in history and one of the biggest center contracts in history respectively. They paid a 17.5 million dollar signing bounus (6 years, 42 million) to Chris Canty right after wining a Super Bowl.

I'm talking about when it's already clear the Niners are one of the 2 or 3 most talented teams in the NFL if not THE most talented. That's the time to buy; it's not the time to think about the future. It's not the time to go with obvious holes on the team & cross your fingers or try something cute like going after a washed-up Randy Moss. And by the time they finally addressed the issue with the Boldin trade, Rogers, Brown & Whitner all had sharp declines in their respective abilities / performances, and they settled with going into a potential SB-winning season with a mediocre secondary. They could've signed DRC Like I wanted 'em to last offseason. They could've traded for Darrelle Revis THIS offseason like I wanted 'em to. But they're happy to go with Culliver & Brock I guess. Excuse me if I'm not impressed.

I'm not saying they can't win a SB without adding that NOS at the finish line; what I'm saying is that they may have left a trophy or 2 on the table because of that strategy. Kaepernick is not good enough to win a SB without a legendary defense IMO. The Niners' defense is great, but it's not legendary (see the secondary).

So what magic you pulling to get Revis under the cap?

 

[NinerSickness]

So what magic you pulling to get Revis under the cap?

Magic? It wouldn't have been difficult at all. There are a bunch of different ways that could've happened.

 

[Nastastical]

Kaepernick is not good enough to win a SB without a legendary defense IMO.

Not trying to sound harsh, but this has to be one of the dumbest statements I've seen posted here.

Colin has now won road playoff games in Atlanta against Matt Ryan, in Green Bay against Aaron Rodgers and in Carolina against Cam Newton. He's taken us to back to back NFC title games and was one play away from winning the Superbowl, while arguably being our best performer in the playoffs over the last two seasons. Hell, he even outplayed the great Peyton Manning when comparing both QB's numbers against the "legendary" Seahawks defense; Colin also did this in Seattle and not on a neutral field.

To say a 1 1/2 year starter is incapable of winning a superbowl is just plain ridiculous, especially when he could've easily been a 2 time champion already if a handful of plays went our way at the end of these two games.

Does he make mistakes? sure, what young starter doesn't? But he also has shown the ability to deliver big time performances when needed. His biggest problem is the same issue Green Bay had with a young Brett Favre, which is him sometimes being stubborn to a fault. This is something that can easily be fixed with experience, and I believe it will.

Even with his faults he is still a franchise QB with a playoff track record that is better than many of the greats that have come before him.

 

[NinerSickness]

Without addressing anything specific in your post, I'll say I can see why you would think that; but even if you're right I think turning this into another Kaepernick thread convolutes the discussion.

 

[Nastastical]

Magic? It wouldn't have been difficult at all. There are a bunch of different ways that could've happened.

Please explain these many different ways that we could've fit Revis under the cap without hurting our chances of resigning our own crucial soon to be free agents like Kaepernick, Crabtree, A.Smith and Iupati. I'm dying to hear this :rollseyes:

 

[Nastastical]

Without addressing anything specific in your post, I'll say I can see why you would think that; but even if you're right I think turning this into another Kaepernick thread convolutes the discussion.

Not trying to, but there is no way you can sneak a comment in like that and not expect it to get a response.