Initial thoughts on Manning matchup

[ChicagoIrish]

Everyone wants to talk about Julius Thomas and how he's going to be a force against Seattle's secondary. They are quick to forget someone by the name of Jimmy Graham was shut down twice. And Jimmy Graham is twice the player Julius Thomas is.

Sherman/Maxwell on DT/Decker

The real interesting match up will be Thurmond or Lane on Welker

The thing I like about Peyton is he doesn't shy away from the best competition. Unlike Brees who avoided Sherman pretty much in both match ups, I have a feeling that Peyton has full confidence in DT and will test him on Sherman on one on one match ups.

I'm hoping for a couple flutter balls that Earl or Sherman can get a hand on and pick it off

I was talking about Demaryius.

I think Decker could be key to the Broncos offense.

 

[Perpetual_Beast_Mode]

*edited for space*

It would be much easier if you had just stated "I have not watched Seattle all year, so I have no idea how good their defense is and box scores say their offense isn't good either."

I actually have watched 3 Broncos games today.

Our secondary can play man on every receiver you have, they really are that good. We have bench players that would start for Denver. Peyton is good, but he tends to make bad throws every once in a while that bad secondaries don't capitalize on, but this one will.

Your defense stopped two pass first teams at running the ball and your secondary has been gashed repeatedly.

Your score is probably right, but it will be Seattle holding the Lombardi.

I strongly agree with your second to last sentence/paragraph. The Chargers and the Patriots are very potent run teams, but they don't necessarily COMMIT to the run the way the Seahawks do. Also, Marshawn Lynch is one of the best RBs in the league at yards after contact.

I think the Broncos have a very solid run defense, but I still have confidence in our run game to be quite productive in the Super Bowl.

 

[cdumler7]

Few things here...The OP really really really should check his/her facts before posting. If you are going to make claims then at least back them up. The first being your thoughts on the Broncos run defense. They have been top 10 all year and are tied with San Fran in yards per carry which to me is the more important stat than actual yards given up. Throw in they have been the best run defense for the last month. To the person commenting about the Chargers and Patriots being pass first teams...Based on what? San Diego and New England finished the season in the top 10 in rushes this season. So both were very committed to the run. In fact 11 of the 18 games the Broncos have played have been against teams in the top half of the league in carries this season so they have played plenty of teams committed to the run and have done just fine.


2nd--Manning dares you to blitz him...Please oh please blitz him. He has a 106 quarterback rating in plays that the team blitzes. He has 16 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions in those situations. There is a reason teams don't blitz him very often.


3rd--Where in the world did you get your sack numbers for the Broncos? They finished the year with 41 sacks. Heck the worst team in the NFL had 31 so there is no way they finish with just 20.


Throw in then your stats on the passing defenses we have played...You are looking at yards given up when I think it is pretty obvious yards given up means jack squat considering how many garbage yards teams get. A better indicator would be quarterback rating which then again is still not the greatest indicator considering it would depend on the quality of quarterbacks that a team plays but in that sense the Broncos have played 3 teams in the top 10 and had good games against all of those teams. Throw in some of those teams he played more than once this season so he has played some decent secondaries. Another place I would look is touchdowns given up by a secondary and then look at how much of a percentage Peyton is of that total and I think you will be surprised at how much Peyton counts against the teams he has played.


Now having said all that this will be a huge match up for both teams. This is a truly strength on strength type game so who knows who is going to come out on top. The Bronco passing game could light it up like they have all year or Seattle could be the one answer to actually stopping the Broncos. I guess we will find out in less than 2 weeks.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

One of the biggest reasons Manning has put up these gaudy numbers is because Denver simply has not faced tough defenses all year… In this playoff run alone it's been the #26 and #23 ranked defenses…

 

[Seahawksgal]

I think Sherman is going to shut down Thomas.

Key match ups will be elsewhere. Like Welker and Decker.

Didn't we play the Patriots recently when they had Welker. I remember Cam or Clemons (or maybe someone else) putting a hell of a hit on him and knocking him silly.

Do you think we can contain him?

 

[cdumler7]

One of the biggest reasons Manning has put up these gaudy numbers is because Denver simply has not faced tough defenses all year… In this playoff run alone it's been the #26 and #23 ranked defenses…

Why are you Seattle fans obsessed with yards? Every time I see a defensive or offensive stat posted it is geared towards yards not actual points put up in a game or actual defensive production. Now in points given up per game New England is 10th and San Diego 11th.

Now if we are looking actual points given up the Broncos have played 9 of their 18 games against teams in the top half of the league. And that is with the Broncos hurting their average big time for some of those teams.

 

[octagondd]

Few things here...The OP really really really should check his/her facts before posting. If you are going to make claims then at least back them up. The first being your thoughts on the Broncos run defense. They have been top 10 all year and are tied with San Fran in yards per carry which to me is the more important stat than actual yards given up. Throw in they have been the best run defense for the last month. To the person commenting about the Chargers and Patriots being pass first teams...Based on what? San Diego and New England finished the season in the top 10 in rushes this season. So both were very committed to the run. In fact 11 of the 18 games the Broncos have played have been against teams in the top half of the league in carries this season so they have played plenty of teams committed to the run and have done just fine.


2nd--Manning dares you to blitz him...Please oh please blitz him. He has a 106 quarterback rating in plays that the team blitzes. He has 16 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions in those situations. There is a reason teams don't blitz him very often.


3rd--Where in the world did you get your sack numbers for the Broncos? They finished the year with 41 sacks. Heck the worst team in the NFL had 31 so there is no way they finish with just 20.


Throw in then your stats on the passing defenses we have played...You are looking at yards given up when I think it is pretty obvious yards given up means jack squat considering how many garbage yards teams get. A better indicator would be quarterback rating which then again is still not the greatest indicator considering it would depend on the quality of quarterbacks that a team plays but in that sense the Broncos have played 3 teams in the top 10 and had good games against all of those teams. Throw in some of those teams he played more than once this season so he has played some decent secondaries. Another place I would look is touchdowns given up by a secondary and then look at how much of a percentage Peyton is of that total and I think you will be surprised at how much Peyton counts against the teams he has played.


Now having said all that this will be a huge match up for both teams. This is a truly strength on strength type game so who knows who is going to come out on top. The Bronco passing game could light it up like they have all year or Seattle could be the one answer to actually stopping the Broncos. I guess we will find out in less than 2 weeks.

You are correct. I corrected my run defense in a previous post and somehow I had offensive sacks open and not defensive. Overall, the Broncos defense is pretty good, but can give up large chunks of yards in the air. Like you said though, some of that is because teams were forced to throw because they were behind. That should have affected your sack and interception numbers more though, so But, that happened to us as well and we did not give up so many yards. We went into prevent more than I would prefer and gave up garbage yards and scores, like to Jacksonville, but our overall yards/game allowed through the air was pretty impressive.

On the blitzing, Manning has not faced a defense like this all season. It is not just corners, or safeties, or LBs, or pass rush. It is all four at the same time, and they are all playing at near historic levels. All QBs want the blitz, even Russel Wilson has said so. It makes for better matchups down the field, so this is nothing new for our defense. We play man to man better than any team in the league, even in nickel situations. Why? Because we play man to man a majority of the time. Against the Niners we had to cover 6 guys with 7 because Kaep could run. Now we get to cover 5 guys with 7. Advantage Defense.

I still maintain that the key for the Hawks to win is to keep Manning on the sideline, win the turnover and possession battle and move him off his spot with pressure and blitzing. Our team is built for that. Your team has to change how it plays and play NFC style defense as Welker said. Thank you for the corrections, I was a little perplexed by the sack number I found, and should have looked again.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Why are you Seattle fans obsessed with yards? Every time I see a defensive or offensive stat posted it is geared towards yards not actual points put up in a game or actual defensive production. Now in points given up per game New England is 10th and San Diego 11th.

Now if we are looking actual points given up the Broncos have played 9 of their 18 games against teams in the top half of the league. And that is with the Broncos hurting their average big time for some of those teams.

lol are you seriously trying to spin it and say Denver has faced good defenses… They haven't and that's just a fact… New England and San Diego do not have good defenses… Was Manning even touched vs New England the entire game ? Common man be serious…

 

[cdumler7]

You are correct. I corrected my run defense in a previous post and somehow I had offensive sacks open and not defensive. Overall, the Broncos defense is pretty good, but can give up large chunks of yards in the air. Like you said though, some of that is because teams were forced to throw because they were behind. That should have affected your sack and interception numbers more though, so But, that happened to us as well and we did not give up so many yards. We went into prevent more than I would prefer and gave up garbage yards and scores, like to Jacksonville, but our overall yards/game allowed through the air was pretty impressive.

On the blitzing, Manning has not faced a defense like this all season. It is not just corners, or safeties, or LBs, or pass rush. It is all four at the same time, and they are all playing at near historic levels. All QBs want the blitz, even Russel Wilson has said so. It makes for better matchups down the field, so this is nothing new for our defense. We play man to man better than any team in the league, even in nickel situations. Why? Because we play man to man a majority of the time. Against the Niners we had to cover 6 guys with 7 because Kaep could run. Now we get to cover 5 guys with 7. Advantage Defense.

I still maintain that the key for the Hawks to win is to keep Manning on the sideline, win the turnover and possession battle and move him off his spot with pressure and blitzing. Our team is built for that. Your team has to change how it plays and play NFC style defense as Welker said. Thank you for the corrections, I was a little perplexed by the sack number I found, and should have looked again.

Can you please give me a link where Welker said such a thing? Haven't actually seen it myself so that I can actually understand the context of why he would say that. Not sure we have to change the way we play considering most teams have tried 2 methods against the Broncos this year on defense. The first being play a cover-2 shell to take away the big play and the 2nd being play the press-coverage man to man hoping throwing off the timing would give them a chance to get to Manning. The first team to play the Broncos that way was the Colts and they had success for a half until the Broncos adjusted. After that game analyst kept asking the question "have people figured out how to slow down the Bronco offense?" Well the Broncos adjusted their play calling and next thing you know they are once again putting up historic numbers.

Now yes I agree if there is a defense out there built to stop the Broncos it is the Seahawks but the press man like I said is something the Broncos have seen quite a bit and have a huge chunk of plays just to beat the press man and get the ball out of Peyton's hands quickly. My guess is he will also play quite a bit of hurry up keeping the Seahawks from substituting. If they go their Nascar package he will just run it out of 3-wide sets making the Seahawk linebackers have to have the best tackling day of their lives. If they go their big set to try and stop the run he will then go hurry up and try to pass it down the field. Again you have to remember as Sherman said "You are playing against the smartest quarterback in the league." Nothing the Seahawks throw at him will be anything new that he hasn't seen all season or seasons before.

Now when you say it is 5 verse 7 that means you are only sending 4 after Manning. Now I understand you guys have a decent pass rush but remember this the Broncos just played a team in the Patriots that had more sacks than you guys on the season and didn't even touch Manning the whole game. Throw in then those 5 guys you are talking about are all pretty darn good and have all scored over 10 touchdowns this season. They have all been featured in different games so Manning will look for the weak spot and exploit it.

Again I say all this with the deepest respect towards your team and understand this will be the best challenge the Bronco offense especially has faced all season. The reverse is true though as well. This is an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. Should be fun to watch.

 

[cdumler7]

lol are you seriously trying to spin it and say Denver has faced good defenses… They haven't and that's just a fact… New England and San Diego do not have good defenses… Was Manning even touched vs New England the entire game ? Common man be serious…

So a defense that has more sacks than yours is pathetic and can't get to the quarterback...Hmm what does that say about your front 4 then?

 

[octagondd]

Why are you Seattle fans obsessed with yards? Every time I see a defensive or offensive stat posted it is geared towards yards not actual points put up in a game or actual defensive production. Now in points given up per game New England is 10th and San Diego 11th.

Now if we are looking actual points given up the Broncos have played 9 of their 18 games against teams in the top half of the league. And that is with the Broncos hurting their average big time for some of those teams.

KC is the best defense (ppg allowed) you played. You played them twice and won both, so that is good. We played 6 games against better defenses than KC and have gone 5-1 in those games. Our loss was by 2 points. The number 2-4 defenses in Carolina, SF, and NO and also 2 games against the number 7, AZ.

The Hawks have the #1 ranked Defense by DVOA and #7 ranked offense. Denver had the #1 ranked offense and #15 ranked defense. Seattle had #5 Special teams and Denver had #21. The difference between #1 and #2 in offense and defense was about 10 for each team, so your offense was better then the next team by as much as our defense was better than the next team.

 

[cdumler7]

KC is the best defense (ppg allowed) you played. You played them twice and won both, so that is good. We played 6 games against better defenses than KC and have gone 5-1 in those games. Our loss was by 2 points. The number 2-4 defenses in Carolina, SF, and NO and also 2 games against the number 7, AZ.

The Hawks have the #1 ranked Defense by DVOA and #7 ranked offense. Denver had the #1 ranked offense and #15 ranked defense. Seattle had #5 Special teams and Denver had #21. The difference between #1 and #2 in offense and defense was about 10 for each team, so your offense was better then the next team by as much as our defense was better than the next team.

I understand all that and not trying to say your team sucks at all. There is a reason that the Broncos and Seahawks have pretty much been 1-2 all season. This is the exact Super Bowl I was hoping for at the beginning of the season to actually see what I thought was the two top teams battle it out. I do think that at least at times the Bronco offense might struggle to get things going against this defense. I do think though that they will score somewhere around 20-27 points in this one. To me it boils down to can the Bronco defense play like they have the last 4 games in holding their opponents to 17 points or less. If the Seahawk offense has success then the Broncos are in deep trouble because not only does it mean points but most likely means the Seahawks are having success on the ground running down the clock and putting points on the board. Also sets them up for the play action.

I think the game plan for the Broncos will be what they have done the last 2 play off games. Try to get into a rhythm on offense and hopefully put some points on the board then on defense sell out to stop the run and make a team beat them through the air. Then once they get a decent lead know they have forced a team to become one-dimensional. Easier said than done for sure against Seattle.

 

[octagondd]

So a defense that has more sacks than yours is pathetic and can't get to the quarterback...Hmm what does that say about your front 4 then?

I think he is saying the overall defenses for NE and SD are not nearly as good as ours. It is not just sacks that matter. By DVOA, NE is #21 and SD is #32.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Let's face it, Manning is the Denver Broncos. I am not taking the rest of the team for granted, because they have some fine players, but Manning is what makes them good and what it all revolves around. Our team is built to stop teams like this, so we do not have to alter our normal gameplan. We have not faced an offense like this all season and the closest to them was Brees and the Saints. Obviously other factors weigh into who the top offenses are like what defenses they played, but Denver was head and shoulders above everyone else from a pure points perspective. This is the perfect team for the Hawks to prove themselves against. Denver's defense is, well, to coin a phrase, "pedestrian."

1. Keep Manning on the sideline - Our running game needs to be firing on all cylinders and just grind out clock chewing first down after first down. Our run game is built to do this. 3rd down conversions will be key to keeping the clock ticking. I have seen teams play him this way, and he is the most capeable QB of firing back in less than a minute, so point 2 is also key here.

2. Turnovers - Manning is the player responsible for half of Denver's turnovers. 10 Interceptions and 3 fumbles. Our team is built to protect and take away the ball. Takeaways being the primary stat there. Time and time again we win the turnover battle. The Hawks are +20 in T/O margin and Denver is 0. Manning was at his worst on 1st down and in the 4th quarter as far as turnovers are concerned.

3. Move Manning in the pocket - Manning has not been sacked much and credit is due to the Denver O-Line. We must send blitzing LBs to move him off his spot, much like we did to Brees. Luckily we do not have to assign a LB to spy on him like Kaep, so the Leo or whomever is free to find a hole and go get him. Our defense is designed to do just this. Also, our defense is designed to stop short timing patterns with the press coverage. This will make Manning hold the ball longer allowing our pass rush to get there.

As I have said, the Hawks are built to take on this type of team. It won't be easy, but I think they can step up to the challenge. If Denver wants to beat us, they have to stop the run which is not a huge strength for them. They have to contain RW and stop the air attack. They only have 20 sacks on the season and 5 of them came in the last two games of the year against Houston and Oakland. They have to win the turnover battle which is not a strength for them, and they have to be successful through the air against the best pass defense in the NFL. They have played Houston (3) and NYG (10), but Houston was a defeated team in week 16 and New York was losing often so teams ran the ball on them. Indy (13) was the best pass defense they faced realistically.

These are my initial thoughts. There are others, like playing the pic and bunch formation plays properly to ensure Welker does not scorch us coming across the middle, and not abandoning the run defense since Knowshon is pretty good.

Your thoughts?

My thoughts...SEA wins if...they can make Manning uncomfortable in the pocket rushing 4...if they have to go to 5 and 6, you must surprise him, and they better get him on the ground or the ball out of his hands.

Running game...I really think SEA has to loosen DEN up by passing on 1st down...the NT is not going to be moved and they will bring the S down in the box...even a RB as good as Lynch will have a tough day. I really do not see SEA just imposing their will on DEN and running over them...not early in the game anyway...RW is going to have to make some plays downfield.

DEN wants to spread you out to find the matchup they like in the passing game and they run when the front favors a run. I think SEA is built to stop a lot of OFCs, but I really think they're built to beat SF...I think the DEN has too many weapons and a triggerman that will find them. Manning has to go down quite a bit for SEA to win this one imo.

 

[cdumler7]

I think he is saying the overall defenses for NE and SD are not nearly as good as ours. It is not just sacks that matter. By DVOA, NE is #21 and SD is #32.

He asked if manning was even touched so I pointed towards the patriots having a better pass rush and if they couldn't get to manning why do you think against Seattle it will be any different?

 

[dude82]

Sacks are great, but there's more to a great pass rush than just sacks. There's also a difference between getting pressure/sacks by rushing just your front four and getting pressure/sacks by blitzing/rushing more than four. It's possible for one team to have more sacks than another and still not have the better pass rush.

I haven't watched the Pats all year, so I can't speak to how they went about getting pressure on the quarterback, but having watched the Seahawks all year I can tell you that this defense rarely blitzes and will generally rush only four, yet they still managed to pile up the sacks and the pressures and the QB hits. Getting to the quarterback rushing only four the majority of the time is what has allowed the Seahawks to put their linebackers in coverage and for the LOB to do what it does better than any secondary in the league.

I think the Pats got beat because they just didn't have the horses on defense to get to or stop Manning from doing what he wanted, even more so after Talib went out. That's not to say that Denver didn't deserve to win or that it is somehow diminished because New England was missing so many of their best players, but the New England defense that Denver saw last week was not the New England defense that got after the quarterback to the tune of 48 regular season sacks. It was a defense that was a shell of its regular season self. That is not going to be the case with the Seahawks defense going into the Super Bowl.

 

[SonnyCID]

A few more sacks doesn't make that pass rush better. Offenses play these teams differently. Teams that play NE take advantage of their secondary by calling more plays downfield. I'd be willing to bet that offenses playing against NE hold the ball longer than QBs playing against Seattle, leading to more sacks. Teams rarely run any long developing/downfield plays against Seattle.

The Seahawks front 7 is savagely underrated. They're not even a front 7, they're more like a front 13 that just rotates pass rushers and run stuffers and always has fresh legs on the field. And has some of the speediest and rangiest LBs in the league. Seriously, it's not like it's the great secondary and a bunch of scrubs. All these guys in the back 7 can cover and all these guys on the line can penetrate and make plays.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

He asked if manning was even touched so I pointed towards the patriots having a better pass rush and if they couldn't get to manning why do you think against Seattle it will be any different?

Irrelevant… Seattle doesn't blitz like the Patriots do because our D line causes all the havoc we need… Patriots don't have the horses upfront and to compensate they bllitz allot which means the risk reward factor is there… Seattle's D line without blazing will get to Manning and rush passes even if it's not a sack…

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Sacks are great, but there's more to a great pass rush than just sacks. There's also a difference between getting pressure/sacks by rushing just your front four and getting pressure/sacks by blitzing/rushing more than four. It's possible for one team to have more sacks than another and still not have the better pass rush.

I haven't watched the Pats all year, so I can't speak to how they went about getting pressure on the quarterback, but having watched the Seahawks all year I can tell you that this defense rarely blitzes and will generally rush only four, yet they still managed to pile up the sacks and the pressures and the QB hits. Getting to the quarterback rushing only four the majority of the time is what has allowed the Seahawks to put their linebackers in coverage and for the LOB to do what it does better than any secondary in the league.

I think the Pats got beat because they just didn't have the horses on defense to get to or stop Manning from doing what he wanted, even more so after Talib went out. That's not to say that Denver didn't deserve to win or that it is somehow diminished because New England was missing so many of their best players, but the New England defense that Denver saw last week was not the New England defense that got after the quarterback to the tune of 48 regular season sacks. It was a defense that was a shell of its regular season self. That is not going to be the case with the Seahawks defense going into the Super Bowl.

Exactly….

 

[cdumler7]

I feel like you guys are just saying that the sacks are irrelevant yet have no actual evidence to back up that Seattle caused more pressure than that of New England. Also to say that New England's secondary is bad is well just wrong. There is a reason that 2 of their secondary made the 2nd team All-Pro this year. Throw in they had 2 guys make it in the top 18 in combined sacks, hurries, and quarterback hits. Guess how many Seattle had in that same group...0. Yes I know you have a nice rotation of guys so their numbers are hurt by that but you are acting like New England's pass rush sucks and well that just isn't true. They were one of the top 5 in quarterback sacks, hits, and hurries this season and were top 10 in quarterback rating.


I would also love to see the stats of New England needing to blitz to bring pressure considering they had two very good DE's that did just fine on their own. Like I said if you can prove me wrong then I would be more than happy to say I was wrong but to me this feels like you were more hoping nobody would call you to actually have to do the research.