I'd rather have Tristan or Whiteside Poll

[WiggyRuss]

I just cant wait to see what the numbers say a couple months from now. When this guy says "And in truth, his RPM is likely to be even lower in the future, as the credit received for blocks and rebounds is overwhelmed by his negative on-off numbers." - it almost seems like he just assumes this trend will continue- im not at that point where i assume its just going to continue- i think itll be very interesting to see though....wouldn it necessarily surprise me either way? probably not....but we shall see.

A lot of that stuff makes logical sense. It just makes no SENSE for a guy to come out of no where and have almost 4 blocks a game- but at the same time he just isnt having the impact of an elite defender....I mean- those block numbers are like Mutombo in his prime- but its freaking clear that is not anywhere near the ACTUAL impact that is happening---- it just lends a lot credence to the argument that he is hunting for blocks at the expense of his team and thats why the numbers are so high---- especially if you are going to buy into your guys argument that a 26 year old thats played all over the world is still hugely underdeveloped--- does he just seriously not know any better?

Ill be interested in seeing something--- here is what i wouldnt be surprised to see happen- I bet we will see his blocks go down, but those defensive efficiency numbers will climb a little bit....hmmm...i dunno...lets see in about 2 months if there is any change.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Whenever someone makes rebounding and block shots to be a negative thing, it is hard to take that article seriously. Steals are probably a bad thing as well. Turnovers in general soon enough will be considered negative if you believe everything you read in that article

when is the next time you guys play national?

 

[tlance]

Wiggy actually makes some interesting points here.

I honestly have not watched the Heat enough to draw my own conclusions on Whiteside, but there are many players in the league who put their own stats ahead of team performance.

If Wiggy is correct and Whiteside is one of those players, he will be drastically overpaid next season, even more so than Thompson who at least offers positive value while on the court.

The trouble is that most people (NBA execs included) tend to overvalue simple stats. Players know this and selfish ones take advantage.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

DeMar Derozan too- another 20 million dollar guy...he will get at least 22....

Any reason you didn't respond to my point 2., post #389?

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Last time Heat played the Cavs:

+/-

Whiteside +10
Love -10
Tristan -16
Mozgov -28


And, go ask any Dallas Maverick ( or any other opponent) how much better the Heat is without Whiteside, if you want to get laughed at.

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

This got to 20 pages? SMDH

It would have only gotten to 3 pages if wiggy wasn't involved

 

[The Q]

There isn't a planet or multiverse ever created where Thompson is better than Whiteside.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Wiggy actually makes some interesting points here.

I honestly have not watched the Heat enough to draw my own conclusions on Whiteside, but there are many players in the league who put their own stats ahead of team performance.

If Wiggy is correct and Whiteside is one of those players, he will be drastically overpaid next season, even more so than Thompson who at least offers positive value while on the court.

The trouble is that most people (NBA execs included) tend to overvalue simple stats. Players know this and selfish ones take advantage.

thats EXACTLY what the numbers say over a very broad sample size....

GREAT article with updated stats from ESPN



Not so fast. Here, the box score fails us.

When Whiteside sits, the Heat are better on defense. Over the past two seasons, as Whiteside has burst onto the scene in Miami, the Heat have allowed three points fewer per 100 possessions with Whiteside out of the game.

That's not all. The Heat grab more rebounds when he sits as well: 80 percent of defensive rebounds without Whiteside versus 76 percent with him..

Why? Whiteside apparently doesn't know -- or doesn't care -- that the opposing center is the biggest threat to grab offensive boards, and that the most important job of any center, after a shot goes into the air, is making sure that opponent has no clear path to the basket for a rebound.

Instead of boxing out, Whiteside appears to want the rebound for himself, according to my video review of Whiteside's play. This boosts his totals but costs his teammates rebounds. At the same time, opposing centers actually see a bump in their rebounding numbers against Whiteside, who is often just ball-watching once the shot goes up.

It's a similar story with the block numbers. Whiteside seems more concerned about getting his individual block numbers up than keeping the opponent from scoring. Many times he will leave his man to "help" a teammate and rack up a potential block, even if his teammate is in good defensive position.

So what happens? If Whiteside doesn't get the blocked shot (and he usually doesn't), the now double-teamed player often finds Whiteside's man free under the basket. Or if the shot goes up, Whiteside is completely out of position to grab the rebound.

Either way, the opposing team has an easier time grabbing offensive boards, and with no rim protector in sight, has no trouble putting the ball immediately in the basket.

Whiteside's real plus-minus (RPM) tells part of the story, as he's currently ranked 31st among centers. And in truth, his RPM is likely to be even lower in the future, as the credit received for blocks and rebounds is overwhelmed by his negative on-off numbers.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

thats EXACTLY what the numbers say over a very broad sample size....

GREAT article with updated stats from ESPN



Not so fast. Here, the box score fails us.

When Whiteside sits, the Heat are better on defense. Over the past two seasons, as Whiteside has burst onto the scene in Miami, the Heat have allowed three points fewer per 100 possessions with Whiteside out of the game.

That's not all. The Heat grab more rebounds when he sits as well: 80 percent of defensive rebounds without Whiteside versus 76 percent with him..

Why? Whiteside apparently doesn't know -- or doesn't care -- that the opposing center is the biggest threat to grab offensive boards, and that the most important job of any center, after a shot goes into the air, is making sure that opponent has no clear path to the basket for a rebound.

Instead of boxing out, Whiteside appears to want the rebound for himself, according to my video review of Whiteside's play. This boosts his totals but costs his teammates rebounds. At the same time, opposing centers actually see a bump in their rebounding numbers against Whiteside, who is often just ball-watching once the shot goes up.

It's a similar story with the block numbers. Whiteside seems more concerned about getting his individual block numbers up than keeping the opponent from scoring. Many times he will leave his man to "help" a teammate and rack up a potential block, even if his teammate is in good defensive position.

So what happens? If Whiteside doesn't get the blocked shot (and he usually doesn't), the now double-teamed player often finds Whiteside's man free under the basket. Or if the shot goes up, Whiteside is completely out of position to grab the rebound.

Either way, the opposing team has an easier time grabbing offensive boards, and with no rim protector in sight, has no trouble putting the ball immediately in the basket.

Whiteside's real plus-minus (RPM) tells part of the story, as he's currently ranked 31st among centers. And in truth, his RPM is likely to be even lower in the future, as the credit received for blocks and rebounds is overwhelmed by his negative on-off numbers.

Broad sample size my ass.
Heat has been a work in progress since Whiteside was signed last year.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Find me any Heat fan, player, or coach, anywhere, ever who has ever said 'glad Whiteside isn't playing tonight, we'll be a better team'.

He made us better even when his hand was wrapped up like a mummy.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Find me any Heat fan, player, or coach, anywhere, ever who has ever said 'glad Whiteside isn't playing tonight, we'll be a better team'.

He made us better even when his hand was wrapped up like a mummy.

welll this is kind of what i was talking about yesterday

you can give all the subjective, anecdotal BS you want- id actually prefer the hard black and white numbers that do not leave room for bias.....but as i said yesterday- thats the difference between being old, stubborn and stodgy and holding on to the past, and coming into the light of an enlightened age of advanced stats....to each their own!

 

[bksballer89]

when is the next time you guys play national?

Miami Heat 2016 Schedule - Heat Home and Away - ESPN

 

[bksballer89]

I think bringing up the Heat defensive numbers with Whiteside last season is pretty stupid and poor journalism. You really have to consider who was on that team last year. It was bad. Whiteside is the only Center in the league who gets blame for perimeter players being bad defenders. Last year team was the Heat defensive team in a very long time. Ranked 19th in DEF EFF. It was their worse defensive team since the 15 win team so yeah not sure why anyone expected to find great defensive numbers last year.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

welll this is kind of what i was talking about yesterday

you can give all the subjective, anecdotal BS you want- id actually prefer the hard black and white numbers that do not leave room for bias.....but as i said yesterday- thats the difference between being old, stubborn and stodgy and holding on to the past, and coming into the light of an enlightened age of advanced stats....to each their own!

Really?
Then based on your mindset, James shouldn't be in the best of all time discussion because over a 6 year sample size he's .333 when it matters.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

I think bringing up the Heat defensive numbers with Whiteside last season is pretty stupid and poor journalism. You really have to consider who was on that team last year. It was bad. Whiteside is the only Center in the league who gets blame for perimeter players being bad defenders. Last year team was the Heat defensive team in a very long time. Ranked 19th in DEF EFF. It was their worse defensive team since the 15 win team so yeah not sure why anyone expected to find great defensive numbers last year.

No different then looking at the Cavs stats after the first 50 games last season.
People can find, twist , and mold stats to pretty much use in their favor in any debate.
Eyes don't lie though.

 

[WiggyRuss]

1. Has nothing to do with Whiteside being the better player.
2. Factually not correct, because how many 10's of extra millions will Gilbert have spent by becoming a repeat tax offender based on offering bad salaries now?

not necasarily....and this is when i actually dont fault you for this lack of foresight because this gets complicated...

james harden was let go- and enes kanter gets a bigger contract- plain stupid? in some ways yes---- but the Thunder would ALREADY be under the repeater in the first year where the new CBA gets really punitive- and it would have been a disaster---this way- they have been in the tax for only THIS year- as opposed to this being year 3-4 and them being in major trouble. The good thing is- the cap goes up from LAST year at 63 million- to this last summer 70- and to the next summer 89 million, the next summer after that 100 million. You of course being a smart individual realize there is a big difference between the TAX line- and the salary cap line----

this year the cap is about 70 million- and the luxury tax line is 89 million- so thats well over a 20% increase.....

take that 100 million- the cap not THIS summer- but NEXT summer----- right when the Cavs would be getting into repeater terriotory--------if on 70 million cap- the lux tax line is 89 million- on a 100 million cap- you can expect at LEAST a 125 million dollar luxury tax line- probably even a little higher- and with Thompson, Kyrie, Love, Shumpert- all locked in under contracts they signed when the cap was in the 60-63 million dollar range- it should be NO issue- to get under the Lux tax line of a LOW estimate of 125 million a couple years from now

get it? need any additional help getting there?

 

[WiggyRuss]

Really?
Then based on your mindset, James shouldn't be in the best of all time discussion because over a 6 year sample size he's .333 when it matters.

actually just saw an advanced stat thing- i didnt post it on here because i didnt like it that much- that ranked the NBA all time players and put their individal contributions into an "expected" championships number assuming equal teammates- and LeBron was 3nd in NBA history behind I BELIEVE it was kareem and MJ....it had him at like 3.86 expected title THUS far- at the age of THIRTY ONE. unreal really.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

not necasarily....and this is when i actually dont fault you for this lack of foresight because this gets complicated...

james harden was let go- and enes kanter gets a bigger contract- plain stupid? in some ways yes---- but the Thunder would ALREADY be under the repeater in the first year where the new CBA gets really punitive- and it would have been a disaster---this way- they have been in the tax for only THIS year- as opposed to this being year 3-4 and them being in major trouble. The good thing is- the cap goes up from LAST year at 63 million- to this last summer 70- and to the next summer 89 million, the next summer after that 100 million. You of course being a smart individual realize there is a big difference between the TAX line- and the salary cap line----

this year the cap is about 70 million- and the luxury tax line is 89 million- so thats well over a 20% increase.....

take that 100 million- the cap not THIS summer- but NEXT summer----- right when the Cavs would be getting into repeater terriotory--------if on 70 million cap- the lux tax line is 89 million- on a 100 million cap- you can expect at LEAST a 125 million dollar luxury tax line- probably even a little higher- and with Thompson, Kyrie, Love, Shumpert- all locked in under contracts they signed when the cap was in the 60-63 million dollar range- it should be NO issue- to get under the Lux tax line of a LOW estimate of 125 million a couple years from now

get it? need any additional help getting there?

Nice story, but totally off point as usual.
You said his base salary was a bargain, but his base salary isn't even close to what is actually invested in him.

How Gilbert chooses to handle the tax issue, in general, a couple years down the road will totally be determined down the road and will be 100% dictated by whether or not James is still there.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Nice story, but totally off point as usual.
You said his base salary was a bargain, but his base salary isn't even close to what is actually invested in him.

How Gilbert chooses to handle the tax issue, in general, a couple years down the road will totally be determined down the road and will be 100% dictated by whether or not James is still there.

what does this post even mean then if it was not trying to make the point that the contract will put the CAvs over the repeater line going forward? What is your point?

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

actually just saw an advanced stat thing- i didnt post it on here because i didnt like it that much- that ranked the NBA all time players and put their individal contributions into an "expected" championships number assuming equal teammates- and LeBron was 3nd in NBA history behind I BELIEVE it was kareem and MJ....it had him at like 3.86 expected title THUS far- at the age of THIRTY ONE. unreal really.

You pick and choose stats, like no other here.
You've been exposed as a joke for quite a while now when these types of debates get started.