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Omar 382
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Honestly, I can't remember my prediction one way or another for the 2013 season, but I will say that I knew that that team was going to start a steep decline. Whether or not I knew 2013 would be as bad as it was- I don't know, but I know a sub-.500 record was a definite possibility.
I don't like when people tried to rush things in 2015-2017, saying "This is our year. We're turning it all around." It was clear to any sensible fan that those teams were not good teams, and their records reflected that. (Especially 2017, when they finished with a totally predictable 66-96 record. I guess @northeastphillyguy's 95 win prediction, in May 2017 no less, was a little off.)
Going off that, if I had to say, I don't think the Phillies will make the playoffs this year, though a first or second Wild Card would not shock me. I definitely view it in the realm of events that could happen (as opposed to the realm of events that will almost surely not happen, like the Phils winning 100 games or VV winning the CYA).
But I do think they will finish with a winning record. I'll go with 83 wins exactly. That's a 17 win bump from last year. (The three largest win increases from 2016 ---> 2017 teams were the Twins, who went from 59 wins to 85 wins (+26), the Diamondbacks, who went from 69 wins to 93 wins (+24), and the Astros, who went from 84 wins to 101 (+17). So it does happen.)
Fangraphs has us at 74 wins this year, but they're always middle of the pack predictors, just like any prediction system.
I see our offense as pretty good. Hoskins, Odubel, Williams will all shine in the outfield, and I still believe Altherr will get a good number of starts platooning with Williams and possibly Herrera. I think Cesar will regress, but still be good at second base. I think Santana has a very good year (3.5 win season), though his defense will hurt us. I'm not sold on Crawford, I don't think much of Alfaro/Rupp (in fact Knapp is our best catcher of the three, IMO). Maikel Franco just sucks, and I hope Kapler has a short leash with him. Best case scenario, Hernandez is starting at third base in June, with Kingery at second base.
Our rotation leaves a lot to be desired. That's (obviously) going to be our achilles heel. Nola is (at worst) a top 20 SP, and I do think Eickhoff will be better than last year when he was hurt. Our 3-5 will be disastrous though.
Our bullpen should be slightly above average.
83 wins. Let's see it Phillies.
I don't like when people tried to rush things in 2015-2017, saying "This is our year. We're turning it all around." It was clear to any sensible fan that those teams were not good teams, and their records reflected that. (Especially 2017, when they finished with a totally predictable 66-96 record. I guess @northeastphillyguy's 95 win prediction, in May 2017 no less, was a little off.)
Going off that, if I had to say, I don't think the Phillies will make the playoffs this year, though a first or second Wild Card would not shock me. I definitely view it in the realm of events that could happen (as opposed to the realm of events that will almost surely not happen, like the Phils winning 100 games or VV winning the CYA).
But I do think they will finish with a winning record. I'll go with 83 wins exactly. That's a 17 win bump from last year. (The three largest win increases from 2016 ---> 2017 teams were the Twins, who went from 59 wins to 85 wins (+26), the Diamondbacks, who went from 69 wins to 93 wins (+24), and the Astros, who went from 84 wins to 101 (+17). So it does happen.)
Fangraphs has us at 74 wins this year, but they're always middle of the pack predictors, just like any prediction system.
I see our offense as pretty good. Hoskins, Odubel, Williams will all shine in the outfield, and I still believe Altherr will get a good number of starts platooning with Williams and possibly Herrera. I think Cesar will regress, but still be good at second base. I think Santana has a very good year (3.5 win season), though his defense will hurt us. I'm not sold on Crawford, I don't think much of Alfaro/Rupp (in fact Knapp is our best catcher of the three, IMO). Maikel Franco just sucks, and I hope Kapler has a short leash with him. Best case scenario, Hernandez is starting at third base in June, with Kingery at second base.
Our rotation leaves a lot to be desired. That's (obviously) going to be our achilles heel. Nola is (at worst) a top 20 SP, and I do think Eickhoff will be better than last year when he was hurt. Our 3-5 will be disastrous though.
Our bullpen should be slightly above average.
83 wins. Let's see it Phillies.
