Grant Cohn on Smith's Strengths and Weaknesses

[imac_21]

Guys. How stupid do you think we are?

Were over 100 replies in and it should obvious something more than pee-wee football level of knowledge is needed to counter what I have posted.

imac_21's question is retarded.

Making plays takes maybe not a backseat but it is riding shotgun. A QB can't just make a TD happen. WR has to do something right to some degree.

A INT can be completely on a QB handing it to the other team. Then there is no chance for a QB RB or Kicker or anyone to make a play to score.

Eli excelled it other ways so he made up the difference and had a slightly better year.

So Eli, despite turning the ball over more, was better? But I thought turnovers were the be all and end all of QB evaluation? Now it's just the main part?

Was Alex a top 3 QB this season? Doesn't his INT totals mean he was better than pretty much everyone?

The idea of limiting a QBs credit for a TD is silly as well. What changed in the Colts offense other than the QB this year? The 07 to 08 Pats saw a significant drop from Brady to Cassell. The WRs didn't change though. If this were true, teams would load up on WRs and put out sub-par QBs that just protect the ball and allow the QB to make plays.

 

[imac_21]

i'm sick and tired of smith taking the blame beacuse of his past miscues when parts of the offense stinks. the offense is greatly limited by the line and lack of talent at wr. outside of vernon, nobody made plays in the playoffs. take out vernon and our wr's still can't do anything. a healthy edwards and morgan would have made our offense a lot better imo.

it's like upgrading my computer. i upgraded my weakest link which was my video card and now it's my cpu that needs an upgrade. if we upgrade the line and wr's then we can evaluate smith and the coaching staff more accurately. then we can see what is the weak link at that point.

The problem is you do not hold Smith accountable for his flaws. Read the post I quoted. You blame the WRs and the OL, and injuries. But at no point do you acknowledge a single thing Smith could have done better.

 

[imac_21]

We can accurately evaluate Smith in this offense. When we upgrade the oline and WR corp, we will accurately evaluate Smith in that offense. I really don't know what else we can do. I am hopeful that those upgrades will pay dividends but am not sure where the limit is. I'm the last person to put a cap on that. But, the fact of the matter is, we can't give credit to Smith for making that leap just like we can't give us the SB ring without actually playing the Patriots in Indy. Time will tell and hopefully Alex will get and make the most from the opportunity.

I'm all for people to not give disproportional blame to Smith for last year, specifically the Giants' game, but there's a limit to that line of thinking. I put the blame - Baldwin Fumble Call, KW fumbles, Offense, Receivers/Alex, Overthrow to KW (partly weather related, partly Alex), Playcalling, Coaching staff, other ref calls, other weather, defense. They can have differing percentages of blame and these are not in order of percentages of blame, but rather in what would I change first, second, or third in that game to ensure victory.

The part in bold is such a chicken vs egg scenario. Can we evaluate Alex when we get better talent around him, or can we evaluate the talent at WR specifically, but also the OL, when we improve at QB?

Our WR situation is not exactly Fitz, Boldin and Breaston, but the Patriots don't exactly have all world receivers either. Look at what happened to Welker when he left the QB situation in post-Marino Miami to playing with Brady. Peyton produced with Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon etc. Us Jordy Nelson really that good? Did Sidney Rice forget how to play when he lost Favre?

 

[ViperVisor]

So Eli, despite turning the ball over more, was better? But I thought turnovers were the be all and end all of QB evaluation? Now it's just the main part?

Was Alex a top 3 QB this season? Doesn't his INT totals mean he was better than pretty much everyone?

The idea of limiting a QBs credit for a TD is silly as well. What changed in the Colts offense other than the QB this year? The 07 to 08 Pats saw a significant drop from Brady to Cassell. The WRs didn't change though. If this were true, teams would load up on WRs and put out sub-par QBs that just protect the ball and allow the QB to make plays.

Stop being a retard with this or the Brees vs. Smith.
Limiting INTs per pass IS the main thing to doing well.

Smith was not great in other factors which limited the overall grade this season despite being fantastic at avoiding INTs.

It was a very good year, not great.

 

[ViperVisor]

Our WR situation is not exactly Fitz, Boldin and Breaston, but the Patriots don't exactly have all world receivers either.

They catch like All World guys.

 

[NinerSickness]

Stop being a retard

 

[imac_21]

Stop being a retard with this or the Brees vs. Smith.
Limiting INTs per pass IS the main thing to doing well.

Smith was not great in other factors which limited the overall grade this season despite being fantastic at avoiding INTs.

It was a very good year, not great.

List the things Smith did "very good" or better this year.

 

[ViperVisor]

If Brady had our drop %
Completion Rate

65.6% to 61.9%

Smith with NE

61.3% to 65.2%

 

[imac_21]

They catch like All World guys.

Maybe because the QB throws such a catchable ball?

Or would you like me to believe that Deion Branch, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Chad Ochocinco, Matt Slater and Tiquan Underwood are one of the best WR corps in the league?

Tom Brady is really lucky to play with those guys.

Honestly, you are coming across as being incredibly ignorant.

 

[ViperVisor]

List the things Smith did "very good" or better this year.

Only the limiting of INTs other things were meh to fairly good.

 

[ViperVisor]

Or maybe the 400 targets his top 3 guys had were to guys who were great at limiting drops?

Or just take stabs in the dark with "catchable balls"

 

[imac_21]

If Brady had our drop %
Completion Rate

65.6% to 61.9%

Smith with NE

61.3% to 65.2%

If our WRs had the drop rate of the Patriots, we would have had 15 drops this year.

At the rate on this chart (which I assume is from some point in the 2011 season around November, but it has no title, no link and it is not an end of season chart) the Niners finished the season with 32 drops.

You are talking about 1 pass per game.

Of course, there are other issues that play a role. Smith had an average of 7.1 yards per pass. Brady had 8.6.

Smith averaged 11.5 yards per completion. Brady averaged 13.05 yards per completion. In case you will contend that the drops hurt Smith's YPA.

Smith threw a TD once every 26.2 passes. Brady threw a TD once every 15.7 passes.

However, Brady threw an INT once every 50.9 passes whereas Smith threw an INT once every 89 passes.

So Smith was better than Brady.

But seriously, where did the chart come from? Lots of sites track drops, but they all have different numbers because there is no firm definition of what a drop is.

 

[imac_21]

Only the limiting of INTs other things were meh to fairly good.

So he did one thing very good, everything else was "meh to fairly good" and because of this his entire season was "very good?"

I would think being "very good" at protecting the ball, but being mediocre at things like throwing TDs, converting third downs and avoiding sacks and pressure would take his overall season down closer to the average/slightly above average range.

 

[ViperVisor]

Someone did the spreadsheet based on this
Football | NFL | Team Leaders - Passes Dropped - washingtonpost.com

Brady was great across the board so of course he would pass Smith who was lacking in a couple things.

 

[imac_21]

Or maybe the 400 targets his top 3 guys had were to guys who were great at limiting drops?

Or just take stabs in the dark with "catchable balls"

Well, Aaron Hernandez, his third most targeted catcher (and not a WR, note that above I spoke of WRs, not eligible receivers) is known for having mediocre hands.

But maybe you're right. The difference between Alex Smith and Tom Brady is the receivers and the tight ends. If we were to trade Smith for Brady straight up, neither the Niners nor the Patriots would see any change in offensive production.

It wasn't losing Warner that crippled the Cardinals. It was losing Boldin. Had the Cardinals kept Boldin then Derek Anderson etc would have put up numbers very similar to what Warner did.

 

[ViperVisor]

So he did one thing very good, everything else was "meh to fairly good" and because of this his entire season was "very good?"

I would think being "very good" at protecting the ball, but being mediocre at things like throwing TDs, converting third downs and avoiding sacks and pressure would take his overall season down closer to the average/slightly above average range.

Not Very Good

It was the 5th best ALL TIME at limiting INTs per pass.

 

[MHSL82]

The part in bold is such a chicken vs egg scenario. Can we evaluate Alex when we get better talent around him, or can we evaluate the talent at WR specifically, but also the OL, when we improve at QB?

Our WR situation is not exactly Fitz, Boldin and Breaston, but the Patriots don't exactly have all world receivers either. Look at what happened to Welker when he left the QB situation in post-Marino Miami to playing with Brady. Peyton produced with Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon etc. Us Jordy Nelson really that good? Did Sidney Rice forget how to play when he lost Favre?

My point was that we can only evaluate the players accurately in the context that they are playing. We can get a pretty good guess, that IMO is close enough, but it's not as accurate as we could reasonably get. With this coaching staff with the amount of off-season prep with this oline and receivers, Alex is _____. With our current roster, coaching staff, and offseason, Crabtree is ______. I've seen people say with a great defense and our current offensive personel, Alex is _____. Since we have a great defense, that can be accurately presented. When we have a different roster, we can evaluate each player with that different roster.

He was saying that we couldn't accurately evaluate Smith without an upgrade at OL/WR. I was saying that is incorrect because we CAN accurately evaluate Alex with the team he has around him. We CAN accurately evaluate how Crabtree is with a QB like Smith and how Alex can do with his current crop of WRs. To say, Alex would be great with an upgrade at OL/WR is a guess, not an accurate evaluation.

For example, we could say that Crabtree won't do as well with a QB like Smith because Smith won't throw the ball when not open. We can't accurately say how he'd do with a QB that does throw the ball ahead of the receiver's route, because we haven't seen Crabtree do it, just like we haven't seen Alex with an improved OL/WR. If Crabtree does work hard, learns the routes, and doesn't drop the ball, I'd guess he'd do greatly with that type of QB, but without doing so, I cannot accurately evaluate him as being a QB away. I can guess.

We can say Alex won't do as well with Crabtree than he would with a reciever who routinely gets separation or makes high grabbing catches like Fitzgerald. But since we have no Fitgerald, we cannot say that Alex will let go of his hesitancies. I cannot accurately evaluate him as being capable until we have a player like that. So the receiver/qb relationship is a bit chicken or the egg, but that wasn't my point. I was not saying that Alex was held back only by his receivers and not vice-versa.

We can't suspend our evaluation because Smith doesn't have a complete supporting cast. But we also don't have to be stubborn and say we know how Alex will always be in any context. My point is that we are evaluating him based upon who he's played with and for. I can't see any other way of evaluating. There are some things that are irrespective of supporting cast, but on the whole, it's fact/context based. We can guess about the future where most of this is just opinion and hope.

 

[imac_21]

Someone did the spreadsheet based on this
Football | NFL | Team Leaders - Passes Dropped - washingtonpost.com

Brady was great across the board so of course he would pass Smith who was lacking in a couple things.

Thanks. I'm wondering where the Post got their numbers (did they chart them all, or did they get them from FO, or PFF or something?).

I'm also going to assume that the numbers in the chart on the link are from the end of the season as they are different than on the spreadsheet you posted (final drop count is Pats 22 Niners 30).

My issue with the chart is that there is true definition of "drop" like there is for catch.

 

[ViperVisor]

Well, Aaron Hernandez, his third most targeted catcher (and not a WR, note that above I spoke of WRs, not eligible receivers) is known for having mediocre hands.

But maybe you're right. The difference between Alex Smith and Tom Brady is the receivers and the tight ends. If we were to trade Smith for Brady straight up, neither the Niners nor the Patriots would see any change in offensive production.

It wasn't losing Warner that crippled the Cardinals. It was losing Boldin. Had the Cardinals kept Boldin then Derek Anderson etc would have put up numbers very similar to what Warner did.

again

Reductio ad absurdum - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


It would be closer if our targets were better but Brady is still better.

 

[imac_21]

Someone did the spreadsheet based on this
Football | NFL | Team Leaders - Passes Dropped - washingtonpost.com

Brady was great across the board so of course he would pass Smith who was lacking in a couple things.

"lacking in a couple things" is a bit of an understatement.

And Smith's ability to protect the ball did not balance out his inability to do many other things that are important parts of playing QB.

I also wonder how much of his interception rate was due to the safe passes.

David Garrard a few years ago threw 3 INTs with a 0.9% INT rate. He also threw 18 TDs that year and completed 64.0 percent of his passes in 12 games.

That was with Reggie Williams and Dennis Northcutt has his top 2 WRs. Was that a great year?