Grant Cohn on Smith's Strengths and Weaknesses

[imac_21]

again

Reductio ad absurdum - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


It would be closer if our targets were better but Brady is still better.

So it's an argument from absurdity to point out that one of the guys you said doesn't drop many passes has been criticized for dropping passes?

Are you just going to throw that out whenever someone makes a point you can't counter?

 

[ViperVisor]

No doubt there were a lot of safe passes. But his YPA was still a decent 7.1

 

[imac_21]

Not Very Good

It was the 5th best ALL TIME at limiting INTs per pass.

Is that based on qualifying QBs, or all QBs? Colin Kaepernick had a lower INT per pass rate this year. I bet I can find 4 more that did and all of a sudden Smith wasn't even 5th best this year.

Or do we only talk about qualifying QBs in this case because it builds your argument, but when talking about where Smith ranks among qualifying QBs for his passer rating we ignore it and include WRs that went 0 for 1 on tick plays like Brad Smith who threw an interception?

 

[imac_21]

No doubt there were a lot of safe passes. But his YPA was still a decent 7.1

He ranked 17th in yards per attempt. That's the highest spot in the second half of the leagues starters (1-16, 17-32). Guys like Kevin Kolb and Matt Moore ranked above him there.

 

[ViperVisor]

So it's an argument from absurdity to point out that one of the guys you said doesn't drop many passes has been criticized for dropping passes?

Are you just going to throw that out whenever someone makes a point you can't counter?

I didn't say he doesn't drop passes. He certainly had that problem in the past and earned that wrap. He was the 3rd most targets guy on NE. He either was improved in not racking up drops or Welker and Gronk dropped almost nothing to keep NE very low in drops.

 

[MHSL82]

Maybe because the QB throws such a catchable ball?

Or would you like me to believe that Deion Branch, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Chad Ochocinco, Matt Slater and Tiquan Underwood are one of the best WR corps in the league?

Tom Brady is really lucky to play with those guys.

Honestly, you are coming across as being incredibly ignorant.

This is why the source of Viper's numbers is because "drops" I think should be when a reciever catches a catchable ball, not an off-thrown ball that happens to hit the receiver's hands. I saw one definition that said one where a receiver drops that should have been caught with standard effort.

 

[imac_21]

I didn't say he doesn't drop passes. He certainly had that problem in the past and earned that wrap. He was the 3rd most targets guy on NE. He either was improved in not racking up drops or Welker and Gronk dropped almost nothing to keep NE very low in drops.

According the PFF, Gronkowski had 1 drop in 47 attempts as of Nov 3. I can't find anything for Welker without paying.

What you said is that Brady's three most targeted players were good at not dropping the ball. Hernandez is one of his top 3 targeted players. Hernandez has a reputation for dropping the ball.

 

[imac_21]

This is why the source of Viper's numbers is because "drops" I think should be when a reciever catches a catchable ball, not an off-thrown ball that happens to hit the receiver's hands. I saw one definition that said one where a receiver drops that should have been caught with standard effort.

But then we have to define what a "standard effort" is. Is making a jumping catch "standard?" What about going to the ground on a slant?

What about the near-catch Manningham had in the Super Bowl? The one where he stepped out of bounds. Should that count as a drop because he didn't drag his feet?

 

[MHSL82]

But then we have to define what a "standard effort" is. Is making a jumping catch "standard?" What about going to the ground on a slant?

What about the near-catch Manningham had in the Super Bowl? The one where he stepped out of bounds. Should that count as a drop because he didn't drag his feet?

Nothing is perfect, everything just plays a part in the overall analysis. Drops should not excuse Smith but it is a factor and you know we don't have the most assured hands in the league just like we don't have the most accurate QB. I think if we could factor in everything, Smith would be a little better but the overall rankings would stay about the same. The 90.7 would be a 93 or so, but he'd still be 9th or so. There's a chance he'd go to 8th or 7th with a certain analysis. Rodgers would also be better with no drops. Alex might make up some ground statistically to some QBs but I don't think it's big enough to make a big difference in the top ten QBs. I also don't think, unless it happened at the end of a game, that it would change public perception outside of stats.

I don't think standard effort meant anything so difficult that one QB would benefit over another. I'd guess that it would be analyzed pretty much equally. I understand that drops has limited value and are vague at times, but I don't feel that it'll lend to an extreme argument either way. (Extreme being that standard effort means a jumping tip of the fingers drop nor that it would have to be on the numbers with no defenders to be considered a drop)

 

[Flyingiguana]

The problem is you do not hold Smith accountable for his flaws. Read the post I quoted. You blame the WRs and the OL, and injuries. But at no point do you acknowledge a single thing Smith could have done better.

it's hard to evaluate smith fully because of the problems i pointed out. qb's aren't going to be perfect but people don't want to believe smith is turning the corner. i seen it last year and knew he would be our best option going into this season.

i don't know if he will become more consistent next season to take the next step. when we've opened up the offense smith has performed pretty well this season.

 

[Flyingiguana]

The part in bold is such a chicken vs egg scenario. Can we evaluate Alex when we get better talent around him, or can we evaluate the talent at WR specifically, but also the OL, when we improve at QB?

Our WR situation is not exactly Fitz, Boldin and Breaston, but the Patriots don't exactly have all world receivers either. Look at what happened to Welker when he left the QB situation in post-Marino Miami to playing with Brady. Peyton produced with Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon etc. Us Jordy Nelson really that good? Did Sidney Rice forget how to play when he lost Favre?

the 2nd coming of joe montana isn't going to stop webster from humping crabtree's leg every pass play.

the difference between stokes and crabtree. stokes could use his big body to shield defenders and he had amazing hands.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Is that based on qualifying QBs, or all QBs? Colin Kaepernick had a lower INT per pass rate this year. I bet I can find 4 more that did and all of a sudden Smith wasn't even 5th best this year.

Or do we only talk about qualifying QBs in this case because it builds your argument, but when talking about where Smith ranks among qualifying QBs for his passer rating we ignore it and include WRs that went 0 for 1 on tick plays like Brad Smith who threw an interception?

Check. Mate.

He'll probably just weasel his way out of this by calling you a retard.

 

[clyde_carbon]

it's hard to evaluate smith fully because of the problems i pointed out. qb's aren't going to be perfect but people don't want to believe smith is turning the corner. i seen it last year and knew he would be our best option going into this season.

i don't know if he will become more consistent next season to take the next step. when we've opened up the offense smith has performed pretty well this season.

Why should I believe this? Because he didn't make many mistakes this year? He was still towards the bottom of the league in yards and TDs per game. He actually had less yards and TDs per game than he did last year, when Singletary was running the show.

 

[ViperVisor]

Check. Mate.

He'll probably just weasel his way out of this by calling you a retard.

If he believed it was a good point he would be a retard. He is just pretending a 5 pass sample means something cause it is an easy way to screw with a debate I was dominating with facts and reasoned opinions.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Why should I believe this? Because he didn't make many mistakes this year? He was still towards the bottom of the league in yards and TDs per game. He actually had less yards and TDs per game than he did last year, when Singletary was running the show.

i'll take a game like the saints over any game during sing's time...

smith had a much better season this year than he did last year, even if u take out the dismal performances before the eagles games near benching.

 

[MHSL82]

i'll take a game like the saints over any game during sing's time...

smith had a much better season this year than he did last year, even if u take out the dismal performances before the eagles games near benching.

I think he hit the corner, we'll see if he's turned it next year.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I think he hit the corner, we'll see if he's turned it next year.

exactly.

 

[ViperVisor]

506 INTs in the NFL in 2011


If you make 50 of them go from INT to nothing more than an incomplete pass.

NFL QB Rating goes from 82.5 to........................................ 83.7

 

[MHSL82]

506 INTs in the NFL in 2011


If you make 50 of them go from INT to nothing more than an incomplete pass.

NFL QB Rating goes from 82.5 to........................................ 83.7

I don't understand your point, it sounds like you are saying that INTs have very little to do with the entire QB rating. Are you then saying that percentages are more important and Smith'd have a higher rating if our receivers didn't drop passes? Or do I extrapolate that mean that if 506 INTs were instead INCs, then the rating is 12 points higher at 94.5? Or is it simply INT = BAD? Your arguments are so convoluted sometimes that I don't understand them other than that Smith is better than so and so says he is. I feel sometimes if the doubters said he had a very good season (instead of saying mediocre) you were counter that he had a great season. Is it just that the doubters are wrong?

Ask anyone who doesn't ignore my posts, I am a huge Alex Smith fan. And I think you are a smart poster who does contribute to this board, but sometimes it is a bit much. I don't mean to insult you because I know at least one person here hates the way I post. I am no better than any poster here, so I don't mean to be condescending, I just want to know what's the deal with the over-the-top sensitivity about Alex Smith?

 

[ViperVisor]

That is all NFL passes. If you took the INTs to 456 the rating goes up 1.2

It crystallizes my point that data matters. And lots of data needs more fight to crack it than the crumbs they have thrown against it.

The people whining about counting 3 passes from a WR or RB that threw an INT is some factor in the yearly average for QB rating in the NFL when Smith was dead on in 09 and 10 look ridiculous.