Grant Cohn on Smith's Strengths and Weaknesses

[Crimsoncrew]

If you include all NFL passes he was average in QB rating not above average. The bad guys like you mentioned who got limited attempts and the good ones, Romo, Vince Young, and Stafford.

Catches, Yards, TDs are gross net stats. That argument is not fooling anyone but the ignorant.

WR needs to be broken down to how many routes you run to get a pass target and then how well you turn those targets into catches, yards, and TDs.

Why would we compare Smith to guys who attempted a single pass, almost certainly a trick play, in a season? How is that a reasonable basis for comparison? By this argument, Staley and Sopoaga should be playing WR.

Even if we restrict ourselves exclusively to actual QBs (shocking!), who cares if Smith is better than most backups? Shouldn't he be? The significantly more important question is how he stacks up against other starters. And among that field, he was on the wrong end of average in 2009 and 2010.

 

[ViperVisor]

Data is Data.

There are 17,000 passes thrown in a season. The gimmicks are still far outweighed by those starters who typically stay on the field. But they should still count. Other QBs are not white flags.

Jeter was 27 spots from the worst qualified hitter in the AL and 45 from the top. Yet he was better than the average AL hitter.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Data is Data.

There are 17,000 passes thrown in a season. The gimmicks are still far outweighed by those starters who typically stay on the field. But they should still count. Other QBs are not white flags.

Jeter was 27 spots from the worst qualified hitter in the AL and 45 from the top. Yet he was better than the average AL hitter.

I'm not really sure what that means (white flags?), but we're not talking about QBs. We're talking about passers. That is a distinction. In 2009, 31 players attempted a single pass. Only three of them were QBs. What possible bearing could or should the other 28 guys have on whether or not Alex Smith is a good starting QB?

 

[imac_21]

Data is Data.

There are 17,000 passes thrown in a season. The gimmicks are still far outweighed by those starters who typically stay on the field. But they should still count. Other QBs are not white flags.

Jeter was 27 spots from the worst qualified hitter in the AL and 45 from the top. Yet he was better than the average AL hitter.

Are you serious with this "data is data" garbage?

Yes, Smith was an above average NFL QB if you compare him to the 96 (give or take) QBs in the league.

However, if you compare him to the starting QBs, he's a below average player in 09 and 2010. What's the point in comparing him to David Carr and Troy Smith to evaluate him as an NFL QB?

When it's said he was below average in 09 and 10, it's implied that he is being compared to starting QBs. If you feel he should be compared to all QBs in the NFL, then say that. I'm sure clyde would grant you that Smith is an above average QB when you include all QBs in the NFL.

But it really doesn't matter how he compares to Brady Quinn.

I'm also curious as to how you found the NFL average quarterback rating for the last few years. Did you look at the rating of every player who threw a pass and calculate the average for the league (sum of all divided by n) or did you plug the league totals of all players combined into a rating calculator and figure out the rating that way?

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Btw, the Jeter example is a terrible one. You mention qualified hitters. The entire premise of Smith as average in 2009 and 2010 is that we are considering ALL passers.

 

[ViperVisor]

Btw, the Jeter example is a terrible one. You mention qualified hitters. The entire premise of Smith as average in 2009 and 2010 is that we are considering ALL passers.

Ummmm, exactly. You are limiting it to qualifiers I am looking at all QBs.

If you cut Jeter down to a sub set of guys who played regularly only he was not average. If you look at all AL batters he was slightly better than avg.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Why is everyone all excited about 2009 and 2010 anyway? Don't you all remember Single-cell-a-tary was HC. Don't you all remember the offensive strategy then?

I'm trying to forget too.

Anyway I think you could argue Smith was basically average in 09 and 10, but he was statistically basically in the bottom 3rd (19th and 21st) of starting QBs - part maybe due to the fact that he only started 10 or 11 games in each of those seasons. But c'mon, Singletary and his staff obvioulsy had something (and by something I mean a lot of something) to do with his (and the team's) production no matter how you want to slice it.

He was Top10 or Top half, depending on how you look at it, in 2011 I think we can all agree to that. I look forward to seeing him progress under another year of Harbaugh.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Ummmm, exactly. You are limiting it to qualifiers I am looking at all QBs.

If you cut Jeter down to a sub set of guys who played regularly only he was not average. If you look at all AL batters he was slightly better than avg.

Ok, so you were distinguishing between Jeter compared to qualified hitters and compared to all hitters. Didn't catch that. It's still an asinine comparison. If we compare our starters at any position to backups around the league, they will all be better than average. Are we set at every spot, then?

 

[MHSL82]

Why is everyone all excited about 2009 and 2010 anyway? Don't you all remember Single-cell-a-tary was HC. Don't you all remember the offensive strategy then?

I'm trying to forget too.

Anyway I think you could argue Smith was basically average in 09 and 10, but he was statistically basically in the bottom 3rd (19th and 21st) of starting QBs - part maybe due to the fact that he only started 10 or 11 games in each of those seasons. But c'mon, Singletary and his staff obvioulsy had something (and by something I mean a lot of something) to do with his (and the team's) production no matter how you want to slice it.

He was Top10 or Top half, depending on how you look at it, in 2011 I think we can all agree to that. I look forward to seeing him progress under another year of Harbaugh.

Really? All of us? I doubt it.

 

[ViperVisor]

This season was called mediocre in this thread.

It was a very good season.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

This season was called mediocre in this thread.

It was a very good season.

Only if we lower our expectations because it's Alex Smith. If we look at NFL starting QBs, Smith had a pretty good season, not a great one.

I think Alex can improve, especially as he really fell off in the red zone after several years in which that was the only area where he really excelled. But I'm not nearly satisfied with his performance to date.

 

[ViperVisor]

Very Good is not great. I agree.

Him improving would make the biggest difference. But that is a hope you can't hang on relentlessly if you want to stay sane. All but 3 teams go into the year wishing that happens to be the savior to being a better team.

He could and should push to do a little more.

What doesn't have the front page but also needs to happen is better pass blocking and pass catching. The weakness at RG and C specifically were obvious. Some here whitewashed the number 1 reason for the lack of pep in the passing playbook this year. http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...ines-ot-pass-blocking-efficiency-ratings.html

 

[imac_21]

This season was called mediocre in this thread.

It was a very good season.

Are you holding him to typical NFL starting QB standards? Or are you still comparing him to 3rd stringers? Or are you comparing him to what Alex Smith has done in the past?

 

[imac_21]

Also, by your standards Viper, David Akers was one of the best passers in the NFL this year with his 158.3 rating. Oddly though, NFL.com and ESPN.com don't include him in their passer rating leaders category.

Kaepernick was roughly average based on 2009 and 2010 averages.

 

[imac_21]

Very Good is not great. I agree.

Him improving would make the biggest difference. But that is a hope you can't hang on relentlessly if you want to stay sane. All but 3 teams go into the year wishing that happens to be the savior to being a better team.

He could and should push to do a little more.

What doesn't have the front page but also needs to happen is better pass blocking and pass catching. The weakness at RG and C specifically were obvious. Some here whitewashed the number 1 reason for the lack of pep in the passing playbook this year. http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...ines-ot-pass-blocking-efficiency-ratings.html

I think it's important to note that despite our OLs poor rankings on those lists, the Giants had an OG, their C, and two OTs on the "worst" list.

Actually, I take that back. Diehl was so good for them that he ranked last in efficiency at OT, AND last in efficiency at OG.

Somehow the Giants still managed to be effective throwing the football. With an undrafted FA as their leading WR (before anyone starts talking up their WRs as if they had Fitz and the Johnson boys).

 

[clyde_carbon]

Very Good is not great. I agree.

Him improving would make the biggest difference. But that is a hope you can't hang on relentlessly if you want to stay sane. All but 3 teams go into the year wishing that happens to be the savior to being a better team.

He could and should push to do a little more.

What doesn't have the front page but also needs to happen is better pass blocking and pass catching. The weakness at RG and C specifically were obvious. Some here whitewashed the number 1 reason for the lack of pep in the passing playbook this year. http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...ines-ot-pass-blocking-efficiency-ratings.html

I know I'm exposing myself to more "OMG YOU'RE AN ALEX HATER" dribble, but I wouldn't call Smith's season "very good". He averaged 196 yards per game. That puts him at 27th in the league. He also averaged barely over a TD per game, which also would put him towards the bottom of the league.

Yes, his decision making improved tremendously, but he actually averaged less yards and TDs per game than he did last season. And as someone else pointed out, that was a Mike Singletary led offense.

And quite honestly, I don't see him replicating his INT numbers next season. I don't think the turnovers have anywhere to go but up - so he needs to start making more plays in the passing game.

 

[MHSL82]

Are you holding him to typical NFL starting QB standards? Or are you still comparing him to 3rd stringers? Or are you comparing him to what Alex Smith has done in the past?

I have more categories than you do - Elite - Great - Very good - Good - Above Average - Average - Below Average - Poor - Terrible - Leaf

I thought he was in the very good category for this year to a typical NFL starting QB standard, which for me, includes factoring what he was asked to do and what he needed to do, plus comebacks, etc. So it's not all stats. But I know I'm biased like everyone else.

 

[imac_21]

I have more categories than you do - Elite - Great - Very good - Good - Above Average - Average - Below Average - Poor - Terrible - Leaf

I thought he was in the very good category for this year to a typical NFL starting QB standard, which for me, includes factoring what he was asked to do and what he needed to do, plus comebacks, etc. So it's not all stats. But I know I'm biased like everyone else.

I think a significant factor in "what he was asked to do" is what he has shown he is capable of. If we had Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, Stafford, Rivers, Romo, Ryan, Schaub, Roethlisberger, Vick, Cutler, Freeman, Newton, Hasselbeck, (hell, even) Flacco I think he would have been asked to do a lot more.

However, because of Smith's track history he doesn't have the trust to make a lot of throws. There were times (against Philly, against the Saints) where he made plays, but I think it's silly to think we were keeping games close and limiting our offensive production because that's what we WANTED to do and not the best way to be successful. If you replaced Smith with any of the QBs I listed above (except maybe Flacco) I think our offensive production improves dramatically because our approach on offense becomes more aggressive.

No one will ever convince me that a coach who played QB in the NFL wants to run an offense that ranks 31st in pass attempts.

Alex had a very good year by the standards he has set for himself over the previous 6. It was not a very good year by 2011 NFL QB standards. He did one thing well this year, and that was protect the ball.

I think mediocre is a fair word to describe his performance this year. He was average. Maybe - maybe - slightly above. But not including Flacco there are 15 QBs I named above who are unquestionably better players.

 

[MHSL82]

I think a significant factor in "what he was asked to do" is what he has shown he is capable of. If we had Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, Stafford, Rivers, Romo, Ryan, Schaub, Roethlisberger, Vick, Cutler, Freeman, Newton, Hasselbeck, (hell, even) Flacco I think he would have been asked to do a lot more.

However, because of Smith's track history he doesn't have the trust to make a lot of throws. There were times (against Philly, against the Saints) where he made plays, but I think it's silly to think we were keeping games close and limiting our offensive production because that's what we WANTED to do and not the best way to be successful. If you replaced Smith with any of the QBs I listed above (except maybe Flacco) I think our offensive production improves dramatically because our approach on offense becomes more aggressive.

No one will ever convince me that a coach who played QB in the NFL wants to run an offense that ranks 31st in pass attempts.

Alex had a very good year by the standards he has set for himself over the previous 6. It was not a very good year by 2011 NFL QB standards. He did one thing well this year, and that was protect the ball.

I think mediocre is a fair word to describe his performance this year. He was average. Maybe - maybe - slightly above. But not including Flacco there are 15 QBs I named above who are unquestionably better players.

I agree that it was based upon what he showed he was capable of in prior seasons, but I think he is and was capable of more if pressed. Throughout the year, he did get more leash. I'd put him 9th or 10th on that list because I think he'd be capable of doing more stat-wise and highlight-wise (some of those QBs haven't had much more than that) if Harbaugh pressed him (which would be higher TDs and higher INTs), but I know you and most have a different opinion. (My point is that a lot of those QBs look better based upon those things not based on something that IMO Smith couldn't do if the gameplan and playcalling were the same. He wouldn't be Brady, Rogers, Brees, etc, even with identical playcalls, though.) Harbaugh managed him throughout the season because he knew it was the postseason he was shooting for, why risk it? And the risk was based upon previous seasons, I mean what else could you use? He's always done well in practice so it's not like practice would have earned that trust. I think he'll be asked to do more this next year and we'll see if he can up the expectations.

I disagree but I'll leave it at that. I don't feel there's a point in it because it's just opinion anyways. I'm not up for debate on an opinion. You can call me a homer, but I'll bow out for this one, because it's not worth debating for me when no matter what language is used I'll still feel the same. I won't debate statistics, if he had a statistically sub-par season or statistically average season, fine. I don't think he's a great QB or even a very good QB, I just thought he had a very good season, and I qualified my standards with an asterisk. Don't know what else to tell you.

 

[ViperVisor]

He did one thing well this year, and that was protect the ball.

You dug your own grave with that fact.
That is the single biggest factor in being not a bad QB but a good QB. Turnovers.

That is largely how he got his 90+ QB Rating and why he had a very good year.