Grant Cohn on Smith's Strengths and Weaknesses

[imac_21]

categories that matter ???

QB Rating is not perfect but it is THE stat. To compare it to DB INTs is disingenuous. You interpret it 1 way. How effective is a guy at the basic goals of passing.

And why not factor the passes thrown by guys who didn't throw it 224 times in a season? Did those QBs not exist in the NFL? Were they in football limbo?

It isn't THE stat. It is A stat.

And I didn't factor in the QBs that threw less than 14 passes per game because the league stipulates a QB must attempt 14 passes per game to qualify for the league lead in qb rating. Unless you think a punter that threw a TD pass on a fake FG and finished the season 1 for 1 with a 20 yard TD should be considered the league leader with a rating of 158.3.

Of course, if we include those guys, than Smith simply drops down the list even farther.

He ranked below 16 in passer rating in both those years. Given that there are 32 starting QBs, he was in the bottom half of starting QBs. Go ahead and spin being in the bottom half as not below average.

But if you want to include 3rd string QBs who threw 20 passes in the season. . . .

 

[imac_21]

It was ridiculous for cazic to use QB rating in the way he used it. "Alex Smith's QBR is 70 he's not good he'll never be good he'll be out of the league in 07 JT O'Sulllivan is the bestest forever and ever and my mom says I have to go back to the basement I'm always right and I had all the ideas for Star Wars!"

It is not ridiculous to say Smith's QBR was average in 09 and 10 and was good in 11.

I agree with vipervisor that it is disingenuous to compare QBR to INTs for DBs. QBR is the closest thing there is to WHIP or OPS in baseball which are basically good parameters to judge a player on. But for instance Brandon Belt's was in the low .700s last year which is not very good - but he is a young player and you can't judge him solely on that. Just as you couldn't definitively judge Alex Smith based on his first few seasons - as has been proven out - and gimme a fucking break cazic was and is just a hater and a moron and he was wrong so I don't see the benefit of bringing up such a dumbass to defend your point...

If you said Alex Smith only threw 17 TDs he sucks, that would be stupid. Just as if you said Alex Smith won 14 games he is the greatest. And to say QBR is the most ridiculous stat is in itself ridiculous.

When you say "QBR" are you talking about passer rating (out of 158.3) or the ESPN stat "Total QBR" out of 100?

 

[imac_21]

Heh. An impressive amount of fallacies, deflections and irrelevance packed into ~75 words. Nice work.

Well done. In one sentence you managed to up your post count while contributing nothing but troll-like contribution to the thread.

Or are you calling out my post because you support Viper's assertion that because Alex Smith was better than Jimmy Clausen et all in 2010, he was not below average?

 

[Flyingiguana]

i'd like to see what harbaugh could do with clausen

 

[clyde_carbon]

Heh. An impressive amount of fallacies, deflections and irrelevance packed into ~75 words. Nice work.

As usual, you contribute close to nothing but blind insults and stupid labels in an Alex Smit discussion. Impressive.

 

[clyde_carbon]

again, i responded to another post and just wanted to mention that as a "small consideration". already said i didn't intend to make it a big deal, but you're STILL taking it as such. how many times do i need to clarify myself?

am i pushing for a multi year deal cause i'm concerned he'll take a big jump? NO.

now to address YOUR big issue above..............yes, he can regress given a multi-year deal, but if you take this by itself.......ANY free agent can regress given a multi year deal.

ok now?

I know what you responded to, and I know that you've already conceded your argument. I'm just pointing out your ridiculous accusations of me being an "Alex hater" because I said there's a chance he might regress.

 

[MHSL82]

I know what you responded to, and I know that you've already conceded your argument. I'm just pointing out your ridiculous accusations of me being an "Alex hater" because I said there's a chance he might regress.

Again, you know that he's not calling you an "Alex hater" solely upon this thread. You and he have been on the same two message boards for the entirety of Alex's career in SF and pre-draft 2005, you both know each other well. This assertion of your hate is hardly limited to this thread.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Again, you know that he's not calling you an "Alex hater" solely upon this thread. You and he have been on the same two message boards for the entirety of Alex's career in SF and pre-draft 2005, you both know each other well. This assertion of your hate is hardly limited to this thread.

Are you stalking me?

There's a reason why I haven't responded to you in thread already. You should've taken that as a hint the first five times.

 

[MHSL82]

Are you stalking me?

There's a reason why I haven't responded to you in thread already. You should've taken that as a hint the first five times.

I've been on this thread only. I haven't followed you around. Show me a single thread in the past month or so outside of this thread where I've responded to your posts. Thread jumping is what a stalker does, following a thread is called participating on a message board. I've made comments here that don't refer to anything you've said. I've made posts elsewhere, none involving you. I don't stalk nor troll anyone. I'm sure there are a few posters who could vouch for me there.

You constantly act like you don't get why people view you the way they do (i.e. Alex hater). They may be wrong, but you obviously know that Deep isn't basing his opinion on this thread alone. That's all. You act confused why someone would say you were a hater because of the regression risk comment and I pointed it out that it wasn't for that. You act confused again and I pointed it out on the same thread. Forget about hints, people say it directly to you and you act confused. The fact that you know what he means but continually change his or other's posts' meanings is strange.

I don't care if you respond to me or ignore my posts, it doesn't matter that much to me. I'm not going to go try and figure out whether one poster is responding to what I've said or not. I don't expect anyone to respond to all posts referencing or quoting them. I'd say the same things if WartyOne said what you said or flyingiguana or Sickness or Deep, etc. I'm simply responding on a message board about what someone on a message board said.

P.S. You have responded to me in this thread twice now. Once before and this one. I should have gotten the hint about you not responding when you have? Some of the posts I posted wasn't posted for a response. It's not like I asked you a question, just commented on something you said on two of them, no response expected. How could I take a hint on you not responding when I didn't expect a response based upon what I posted? Once I quoted you when I said Cazic was strange, should I have expected a response from you there and taken a hint when you didn't respond?

 

[iHATEdodgers]

When you say "QBR" are you talking about passer rating (out of 158.3) or the ESPN stat "Total QBR" out of 100?

Sorry I'm talking about QB Rating out of 158.3 I should probably stop calling that QBR eh? It is the only stat that attempts to combine all stats into one handy number for easy generalizations much like WHIP or OPS in baseball.

 

[ViperVisor]

Alex Smith passing performance 09-10. Pass for pass was average NFL QBing in a certain metric. THAT IS A FACT.

I am asserting that QB rating is the best judge for QBing we have right now. That assertion is on rock solid ground. Montana and Young excelled in that area. Rodgers and Brady do today. Were those not the best then and now?

Now we should be looking for context of the situations to improve an assessments from the broad brush to something a little more pixel perfect.

If we have people rejecting reality we have worthless garbage discussion.

And we see it right in front of us. Plus the past is reinvented to try and make you right not only then but today as well.

 

[Flyingiguana]

my view on smith's development is he's become efficient over the past season and a half. when you don't have amazing physical talents u have to become efficient before u can excel.

qb rating shows efficiency. so check item A, smith has passed. now let's go to item B.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

my view on smith's development is he's become efficient over the past season and a half. when you don't have amazing physical talents u have to become efficient before u can excel.

qb rating shows efficiency. so check item A, smith has passed. now let's go to item B.

I don't think Smith was terribly efficient this season. He cut back significantly on his mistakes. Otherwise, he was only slightly better than past years. On 3rd down, the crucial down for a QB (and an NFL offense), he completed 54.7% of passes, averaged 6.5 YPA, had three TDs and two INTs, and took 22 sacks. The team was 31st in third down efficiency. In the red zone, he completed 40% of passes, threw for 2.55 YPA, and led one of the worst red zone offenses in the league. That is not efficiency.

Smith isn't entirely to blame, of course, but he's not elevating anyone, either.

 

[Flyingiguana]

that's where our offensive line and lack of playmakers hurt. we got into too many 3rd and longs with no red zone target. even gore got completely stuffed in the red zone. it all starts with the offensive line.

when we weren't doing weird plays we usually mixed things up well on 1st and 2nd down. but when teams kinda knew it was a run or passing situation, our offense just stalled.

this is where item B comes in. smith has shown glimpses of being capable of putting together winning drives, but we need to see it on a consistent basis. although we still need to fix the talent gaps on offense.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

that's where our offensive line and lack of playmakers hurt. we got into too many 3rd and longs with no red zone target. even gore got completely stuffed in the red zone. it all starts with the offensive line.

when we weren't doing weird plays we usually mixed things up well on 1st and 2nd down. but when teams kinda knew it was a run or passing situation, our offense just stalled.

this is where item B comes in. smith has shown glimpses of being capable of putting together winning drives, but we need to see it on a consistent basis. although we still need to fix the talent gaps on offense.

On 3rd and one or two, Smith completed 45% of his passes.

On 3rd and <6, he complete 53% of his passes and had a 78 rating. We were in 3rd and 6+ a lot, but Smith bears some blame for that.

Given that the only thing Smith truly did well this season was protecting the football, I think it's disingenuous to blame the OL for his struggles. He struggled in his own right.

 

[imac_21]

Alex Smith passing performance 09-10. Pass for pass was average NFL QBing in a certain metric. THAT IS A FACT.

I am asserting that QB rating is the best judge for QBing we have right now. That assertion is on rock solid ground. Montana and Young excelled in that area. Rodgers and Brady do today. Were those not the best then and now?

Now we should be looking for context of the situations to improve an assessments from the broad brush to something a little more pixel perfect.

If we have people rejecting reality we have worthless garbage discussion.

And we see it right in front of us. Plus the past is reinvented to try and make you right not only then but today as well.

No, you are asserting that Alex Smith was an average QB based on a single metric in which he was average based on stats of every player who threw a pass in those years.

When compared strictly to QBs who played a significant number of stats he was in the bottom half of the starters.

If you include guys like Charlie Whitehurst, Troy Smith, David Carr and Jimmy Clausen in the stats, he was above average. But we aren't judging him as a backup, or even third string QB so comparing him to the average passer rating is misleading.

How did everyone feel about Michael Crabtree this season? Would anyone say he had a good season? I bet if we compare Crabtree to the league average of catches, yards and TDs we will find he is well above average if we include every WR who had had a pass thrown his way this year. Does that mean Crabtree was a #1 quality WR this year?

 

[ViperVisor]

If you include all NFL passes he was average in QB rating not above average. The bad guys like you mentioned who got limited attempts and the good ones, Romo, Vince Young, and Stafford.

Catches, Yards, TDs are gross net stats. That argument is not fooling anyone but the ignorant.

WR needs to be broken down to how many routes you run to get a pass target and then how well you turn those targets into catches, yards, and TDs.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Alex Smith passing performance 09-10. Pass for pass was average NFL QBing in a certain metric. THAT IS A FACT.

I am asserting that QB rating is the best judge for QBing we have right now. That assertion is on rock solid ground. Montana and Young excelled in that area. Rodgers and Brady do today. Were those not the best then and now?

Now we should be looking for context of the situations to improve an assessments from the broad brush to something a little more pixel perfect.

If we have people rejecting reality we have worthless garbage discussion.

And we see it right in front of us. Plus the past is reinvented to try and make you right not only then but today as well.

YOU KNOW WHAT ELSE IS A FACT? (Maybe if I use caps I can prove my point better?)

In 2009 Alex Smith was 19th in QB rating, 20th in YPG, and 17th in completion percentage. All below par.

In 2010 Alex Smith was 21st in QB rating, 22nd in YPG, and 22nd in completion percentage. All below par.

Look at the FACTS the next time you get oh so offended when someone has the audacity to claim that Alex was sub-par in 2009/10.

 

[clyde_carbon]

And for those who think it's Smith isn't likely to regress, he actually averaged LESS yards and LESS TDs per game than he did last season. Granted he averaged 4 less attempts per game than he did last year, but that brings up the question of how much does Harbaugh really trust him.

So which is more likely, for Alex to throw more TDs or per game or throw more INTs per game next year?

 

[MHSL82]

I wouldn't make the assumption that fewer attempts = distrust in Smith. It's possible but it may have been hesitancy in the readiness of the team with the playbook. It may have been the transition from the college ranks to NFL as a first time NFL HC, as first-timers may play it more conservatively, lean on our previous year's strengths (running). It may be style of play, as Stanford did run a lot (I'm not saying Alex is Luck). Harbaugh has a different offense than Singletary, one that did not require as many games of catch-up, where passing was necessary to comeback from great deficits. The lockout, as much as we'd like to minimize its effect, may have played a role in the number and types of passing plays called, based upon Harbaugh's comfort with the entire team at any particular point in installing the offense. The fact that Alex isn't Brees, obviously plays a part, but it's not the only part. 4 passes per game can be increased and based upon efficiency, Alex's stats progressed in ypa. It's possible, but I don't see that regressing.

As for TDs, I expect those to go up as well as the INTs. I don't think you get one without the other. While it may be more likely the INTs go up, it isn't independant from the chance for TDs going up. The only way I see Alex getting more TDs is going for more risks, which implies more INTs. Vice-versa, the only way I see Alex getting more INTs is going for more agressive plays, i.e. TDs. Yes, regression is possible.

BTW - I didn't think I needed this disclaimer before, but it appears that I do. I am responding for everybody on this board to what, I admit, is a good question. Discussion. I don't care if any particular poster ignores or responds to my posts. So if you care to agree or disagree, post on. Otherwise, don't lecture me on how my posts are too long or how you think it's pointless for me to post because I should know you won't respond.