Getting the Phillies to the playoffs with WAR

[Omar 382]

Now I'm certainly not saying this team will make the playoffs. I've adjusted my pre-season win prediction from 74 to 77 wins. But let's just delve into the theoretical and have a little fun.

The average WAR total for a team that's around .500 is 30 WAR. To be contending for the playoffs, it's around 40 WAR. A 100 win team will have a total team WAR around 50. This isn't exact, but it's a general idea. Let's try to get this Phillies roster to 40 WAR.

Odubel Herrera: 5.5 WAR
Maikel Franco: 5 WAR
Vince Velasquez: 5 WAR
Aaron Nola: 4.5 WAR

Those are our four best players, and they're all playing up to their potential, if not overachieving it. we're at a WAR of 20. Let's continue.

Cameron Rupp/Carlos Ruiz combination: 5 WAR
Jerad Eickhoff: 3.5 WAR
Jeremy Hellickson: 2 WAR
Freddy Galvis: 1.5 WAR
Andres Blanco: 1.5 WAR
Cesar Hernandez: 1 WAR
Peter Bourjos: 1 WAR
Jeanmar Gomez: 1 WAR
Hector Neris: 1 WAR

A lot of optimism here. I definitely think Eickhoff has the potential to be a 3.5 win player, but that remains to be seen. Chooch is crushing the ball. If he has a 2012 renaissance, he might get more playing time. A 3.5 win season from him and a 1.5 win season from Rupp is possible, albeit unrealistic.

We're now at 37.5 wins above replacement. Let's assume LF and 1B gives us zero wins. Could the rest of the rotation and bullpen get 2.5 wins? Probably. That gets us to 40 WAR.

All of this is best case scenario. Basically, our "core four" would have to emerge as superstars, while the rest of the team would have to be very good and not get injured.

I don't see all of this as likely, but it's possible. It's not like we're expecting 8 win seasons from David Lough and Ryan Howard. I do think that this production from these players is terribly likely, but I will say this. If we're around .500 at the All-Star break, it's possible we get some help from the farm. Let's see

 

[Cedrique]

Now I'm certainly not saying this team will make the playoffs. I've adjusted my pre-season win prediction from 74 to 77 wins. But let's just delve into the theoretical and have a little fun.

The average WAR total for a team that's around .500 is 30 WAR. To be contending for the playoffs, it's around 40 WAR. A 100 win team will have a total team WAR around 50. This isn't exact, but it's a general idea. Let's try to get this Phillies roster to 40 WAR.

Odubel Herrera: 5.5 WAR
Maikel Franco: 5 WAR
Vince Velasquez: 5 WAR
Aaron Nola: 4.5 WAR

Those are our four best players, and they're all playing up to their potential, if not overachieving it. we're at a WAR of 20. Let's continue.

Cameron Rupp/Carlos Ruiz combination: 5 WAR
Jerad Eickhoff: 3.5 WAR
Jeremy Hellickson: 2 WAR
Freddy Galvis: 1.5 WAR
Andres Blanco: 1.5 WAR
Cesar Hernandez: 1 WAR
Peter Bourjos: 1 WAR
Jeanmar Gomez: 1 WAR
Hector Neris: 1 WAR

A lot of optimism here. I definitely think Eickhoff has the potential to be a 3.5 win player, but that remains to be seen. Chooch is crushing the ball. If he has a 2012 renaissance, he might get more playing time. A 3.5 win season from him and a 1.5 win season from Rupp is possible, albeit unrealistic.

We're now at 37.5 wins above replacement. Let's assume LF and 1B gives us zero wins. Could the rest of the rotation and bullpen get 2.5 wins? Probably. That gets us to 40 WAR.

All of this is best case scenario. Basically, our "core four" would have to emerge as superstars, while the rest of the team would have to be very good and not get injured.

I don't see all of this as likely, but it's possible. It's not like we're expecting 8 win seasons from David Lough and Ryan Howard. I do think that this production from these players is terribly likely, but I will say this. If we're around .500 at the All-Star break, it's possible we get some help from the farm. Let's see

I think that's optimistic. The ones I believe will be hard to achieve are Velasquez and the catchers. I think for them to be anywhere close to the playoffs it will take a couple players not currently on the roster, like a minor league call up who happens to get off to a fast start in the majors, like a Crawford or something. But really before it's over I expect a few injuries and some guys in the bullpen to end up with some negative WAR. (no idea who, I just think history has shown that it will happen)

 

[Omar 382]

Hey don't blame me. To quote 50 Cent: "This is God's plan homie, this ain't mine"

 

[northeastphillyguy]

The Philies can not keep up their current winning pace, At any given time there are at least 3 dead bats in the lineup
not to mention a lack of power. The pitching can only go so far before it levels off.

 

[Cedrique]

Dylan Cozens hit his 5th HR in Reading tonight. He's still only 21. The future is looking brighter all the time

 

[Omar 382]

Dylan Cozens hit his 5th HR in Reading tonight. He's still only 21. The future is looking brighter all the time

I'm not overly familiar with how the farm system works. Call it a symptom of being a millennial, when you didn't have young studs promoted, you had them traded for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence. But I had two questions from looking at the minor league statistics.

1. Crawford is raking at AA. I know it occurs sporadically, but what are the odds he jumps right from AA to the big leagues? Most players I can think of are at AAA for at least a brief period of time, but if that's the case, they need to promote him now in order for our July call-up for our playoff push.
2. This has less to do with how the minor league system works, but are you concerned about Andrew Knapp's strikeout rate? It's at 29.6% this year, which is high, even for him, but looking in years past it's still been anywhere from 22%-25%. This doesn't necessarily spell out doom, as I don't think strikeouts are evil, but it does seem strangely high.

 

[jvett77]

Dylan Cozens, Odubel, and Nick Williams. That should be some outfield if it ever works out.

 

[jvett77]

The Philies can not keep up their current winning pace, At any given time there are at least 3 dead bats in the lineup
not to mention a lack of power. The pitching can only go so far before it levels off.

Damn, I was hoping we could play this way for 5 more months.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Hey, any of you dickless Phillies fans got the stones for a 1 week avi bet on the outcome of this weekend's series against the Indians?

 

[Omar 382]

Hey, any of you dickless Phillies fans got the stones for a 1 week avi bet on the outcome of this weekend's series against the Indians?

I refuse to have a gay Indian as an avi. I'll tell you what. You guys win two of three, I'll have a Bone-Thugs-n-Harmony avatar. That's as far as I'll go.

And Kluber is getting fucked up tonight

 

[northeastphillyguy]

Hey, any of you dickless Phillies fans got the stones for a 1 week avi bet on the outcome of this weekend's series against the Indians?

You must be referring to the female fans!

 

[Cedrique]

I'm not overly familiar with how the farm system works. Call it a symptom of being a millennial, when you didn't have young studs promoted, you had them traded for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence. But I had two questions from looking at the minor league statistics.

1. Crawford is raking at AA. I know it occurs sporadically, but what are the odds he jumps right from AA to the big leagues? Most players I can think of are at AAA for at least a brief period of time, but if that's the case, they need to promote him now in order for our July call-up for our playoff push.
2. This has less to do with how the minor league system works, but are you concerned about Andrew Knapp's strikeout rate? It's at 29.6% this year, which is high, even for him, but looking in years past it's still been anywhere from 22%-25%. This doesn't necessarily spell out doom, as I don't think strikeouts are evil, but it does seem strangely high.

I think the jump from A to AA is bigger than AA to AAA then to the majors so some players have definitely done ok going from AA to the big leagues. (Odubel Herrera I don't think ever played in AAA). But the Phillies may be keeping Crawford in AA purposely to give them another reason to delay his promotion a little bit for contract reasons.
2. I don't know if Knapp has enough ABs this year that I'd be worried about a 5-7 % strikeout increase yet. Personally, I look at BB rates more than K rates. I get worried when a guy has unusually low walk rates. That's what had me a little worried about Franco, but so far it seems to have worked out. That is also why I'm excited about Crawford and Herrera.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I refuse to have a gay Indian as an avi. I'll tell you what. You guys win two of three, I'll have a Bone-Thugs-n-Harmony avatar. That's as far as I'll go.

And Kluber is getting fucked up tonight

"I'll talk shit about Kluber, but I lack the stones for an avi bet"

Well noted.

 

[Cedrique]

I refuse to have a gay Indian as an avi. I'll tell you what. You guys win two of three, I'll have a Bone-Thugs-n-Harmony avatar. That's as far as I'll go.

And Kluber is getting fucked up tonight

Yeah, you wouldn't want to have an avi of a character that is gay, Omar.

 

[Omar 382]

Yeah, you wouldn't want to have an avi of a character that is gay, Omar.

Well, literal gay is ok. Indian gay is unforgivable

 

[Omar 382]

I'm frantically PM'ing Hammer to change my name back to Walter White 382 or even 1phillies fan382

 

[Cedrique]

"I'll talk shit about Kluber, but I lack the stones for an avi bet"

Well noted.

wait, is that Twins thing the result of a bet? How did you lose that one? The Twins have only won like 6 games this year

 

[Omar 382]

Yeah, you wouldn't want to have an avi of a character that is gay, Omar.

Ha! Now people reading this thread will have no clue what you're talking about. I win again cocksucker!

 

[Cedrique]

Ha! Now people reading this thread will have no clue what you're talking about. I win again cocksucker!

It's a well-known fact that Hitler was gay. His so-called "girlfriend" Eva Braun was nothing but a beard. She was a liar just like her grandson Ryan.

 

[Omar 382]

It's a well-known fact that Hitler was gay. His so-called "girlfriend" Eva Braun was nothing but a beard. She was a liar just like her grandson Ryan.

wow. if you're going to make unfounded statements about historical figures just for the attempt of a laugh or a punchline then- wow. just wow