GDT 10/14 STL @ SF. NLCS Game 1

[iHATEdodgers]

Poop.

 

[Epic Voidfield]

Complete fucking shitshow today. Went to Candlestick to see that abortion and arrived home in time to watch Bum just powercrap the mound. Fucking awful. Have to believe Timmah gets the start in Game 5.

Oh, and thanks Panda and MVP. Way to clutch up.

Tomorrow we got two things going for us:

1. Tron starting
2. I'll be in the house.

Go Giants! We got this.

I blame Joe Buck. It's criminal that a monotone-sounding frog narrated two major sports events in the Bay Area.

On this game. I thought Bum had sacked up after the first inning, but alas no. Couple of dinks and dunks that didn't go the Giants' way, and it would've been a different game. Tie this shit up tomorrow.

 

[SF11704]

I'm not sure who the hell to blame for yesterday. Not sure any thing we did would have changed the final outcome but I do have some questions. In a 7 game series how long should we let one of our SP go before acrtually pulling him? MadBum was rung up for 8 hits, 6 runs and 2 homers in 3.2 innings. I know you always try and give a SP in chance to 'settle in' but at what cost. Especially in a 7 game set. The pen was stellar but we had already let in 6 runs. A real shame. In almost all cases if we give one of our SP 4 runs that's usually a win. Need Tron to come up big again!

 

[ColinCoby]

I'm not sure who the hell to blame for yesterday. Not sure any thing we did would have changed the final outcome but I do have some questions. In a 7 game series how long should we let one of our SP go before acrtually pulling him? MadBum was rung up for 8 hits, 6 runs and 2 homers in 3.2 innings. I know you always try and give a SP in chance to 'settle in' but at what cost. Especially in a 7 game set. The pen was stellar but we had already let in 6 runs. A real shame. In almost all cases if we give one of our SP 4 runs that's usually a win. Need Tron to come up big again!

It was clear he had lousy stuff, and he didn't know where it was going. He got some ground balls in the 1st, but after that most outs were fly balls...a bad sign for Bum.

Should Boch have removed him before the Beltran AB? I have no idea. Is Beltran a better hitter from the left side? Does Bum have solid numbers against Beltran?

All said, the guy is a great pitcher who doesn't have it right now.

BTW: anyone know our record at home when scoring 4 runs?

 

[filosofy29]

It was clear he had lousy stuff, and he didn't know where it was going. He got some ground balls in the 1st, but after that most outs were fly balls...a bad sign for Bum.

Should Boch have removed him before the Beltran AB? I have no idea. Is Beltran a better hitter from the left side? Does Bum have solid numbers against Beltran?

All said, the guy is a great pitcher who doesn't have it right now.

BTW: anyone know our record at home when scoring 4 runs?

This.

I don't know either what the matchup history is, but I do believe that Beltran is a better hitter from the left side.

This.

Barry Zito would have won that game!!!

Overall, yesterday made me sad/mad. I view today's game as a must win. We can start down 0-2 to the Reds who are still young and on their way up.....against an veteran-wily group like the Cards, it could easily be our death knell. Bad news is, Carpenter's on the hill.

 

[msgkings322]

It was clear he had lousy stuff, and he didn't know where it was going. He got some ground balls in the 1st, but after that most outs were fly balls...a bad sign for Bum.

Should Boch have removed him before the Beltran AB? I have no idea. Is Beltran a better hitter from the left side? Does Bum have solid numbers against Beltran?

All said, the guy is a great pitcher who doesn't have it right now.

BTW: anyone know our record at home when scoring 4 runs?

This. And an illustration of playoff randomness. No one would argue Bum is a bad pitcher, but he has been bad in his 2 playoff starts. SSS.

 

[msgkings322]

This.

I don't know either what the matchup history is, but I do believe that Beltran is a better hitter from the left side.

This.

Barry Zito would have won that game!!!

Overall, yesterday made me sad/mad. I view today's game as a must win. We can start down 0-2 to the Reds who are still young and on their way up.....against an veteran-wily group like the Cards, it could easily be our death knell. Bad news is, Carpenter's on the hill.

Agreed 100%. We seem to sack up for 'must wins'. Then again game 2 of the Reds series was kind of a similar 'must win' and we lost badly...and then it turned out it wasn't a must win! :popeye:

 

[calsnowskier]

We have yet to have a QS this off-season.

The key number for the Giants this year may end up being 160...




The number of starts by our regular rotation during the regular season. I think Boch has learned that he HAS to work in at least 10-15 starts a year by "#6" guys. Those are tough surrender games, but absolutely critical to the playoff push. In '10, we had Welle and Martinez combined for 12 starts, but Bum was a mid-season add.

 

[msgkings322]

We have yet to have a QS this off-season.

The key number for the Giants this year may end up being 160...




The number of starts by our regular rotation during the regular season. I think Boch has learned that he HAS to work in at least 10-15 starts a year by "#6" guys. Those are tough surrender games, but absolutely critical to the playoff push. In '10, we had Welle and Martinez combined for 12 starts, but Bum was a mid-season add.

A fair point, but what are other teams doing? Pretty good pitching by many other playoff starters, did they pitch fewer starts? Maybe Bum is tired (he's actually the best candidate for this theory) but is a horse like Cain, or a soft thrower like Zito? How much of this is SSS randomness?

 

[calsnowskier]

A fair point, but what are other teams doing? Pretty good pitching by many other playoff starters, did they pitch fewer starts? Maybe Bum is tired (he's actually the best candidate for this theory) but is a horse like Cain, or a soft thrower like Zito? How much of this is SSS randomness?

Good point. If I have a chance today, I will look at the Cards or Reds stats this year.

Also, the Giants starters have been tanked for longer than just the last couple weeks. We all noticed they were struggling through September. Why?

Is Boch doing to these guys what the A's have consistantly done with their young starters (blow them out before the "get paid")?

Is it just that there is now tape of these guys out there, so the rest of the league has figured them out?

 

[gp956]

We have yet to have a QS this off-season.

The key number for the Giants this year may end up being 160...




The number of starts by our regular rotation during the regular season. I think Boch has learned that he HAS to work in at least 10-15 starts a year by "#6" guys. Those are tough surrender games, but absolutely critical to the playoff push. In '10, we had Welle and Martinez combined for 12 starts, but Bum was a mid-season add.

I haven't looked lately, but a few weeks ago I looked at the number of pitches thrown by the starting five, and they were on the same pace as in 2010. Not that 2010 needs to be an absolute bench mark, as they're older with more mileage on the arms, so it, perhaps, can be argued that the Giants should have lessened their workload compared to 2010.

In real time we were a bit surprised in the gameday threads that Bochy kept the staff on a normal workload until their last starts. More than anything though, I think the Red and Cards are much better hitting teams than the 2010 Braves and Phillies were.

 

[calsnowskier]

I haven't looked lately, but a few weeks ago I looked at the number of pitches thrown by the starting five, and they were on the same pace as in 2010. Not that 2010 needs to be an absolute bench mark, as they're older with more mileage on the arms, so perhaps it's arguable that the Giants should have lessened their workload compared to 2010.

We were a bit surprised in the gameday threads that Bochy kept the staff on a normal workload until their last starts. More than anything though, I think the Red and Cards are much better hitting teams than the 2010 Braves and Phillies were.

The Phills were an INCREDIBLY over-rated offense, and the Braves were very similar to us, so this is certainly true. However, neither the '12 Reds nor '12 Cards compare to the '10 Rangers. SSS, true, but not a single QS in 6 games? That is a trend, not an anomaly.

Remember, the main complaint about the QS is that it establishes a bar that is TOO LOW. If we can not even reach that low bar, it REALLY says a lot.

 

[msgkings322]

Good point. If I have a chance today, I will look at the Cards or Reds stats this year.

Also, the Giants starters have been tanked for longer than just the last couple weeks. We all noticed they were struggling through September. Why?

Is Boch doing to these guys what the A's have consistantly done with their young starters (blow them out before the "get paid")?

Is it just that there is now tape of these guys out there, so the rest of the league has figured them out?

If he is he's doing it wrong, because all 5 of our starters have already 'got paid'

 

[gp956]

The Phills were an INCREDIBLY over-rated offense, and the Braves were very similar to us, so this is certainly true. However, neither the '12 Reds nor '12 Cards compare to the '10 Rangers. SSS, true, but not a single QS in 6 games? That is a trend, not an anomaly.

You know, those Rangers had the lowest run differential of any of the playoff teams - they really were not that good. They were not as bad as they looked in the world series, for sure, but their middle of the order lineup were all free swingers with holes in their swings - particularly vulnerable to the slider. I'm not seeing that in the Reds or Cards. They're both teams of disciplined professional hitters.

And you know if these were regular season games we would have had a couple of QS. You can't use the same metrics for the playoffs as you do in the regular season. You started out making a workload argument, you should really flesh out that argument a bit more, if you think it really is the main problem.

For me, I'm giving more credit to the opponents, and the fact that in 2010 we had our staff aces lined up perfectly at the start of every series. Our number one ace of 2010 has been gone all year, and that certainly has nothing to do with this season's workload. And to be clear, I'm not saying the pitching staff is pitching as good as they were in the 2010 playoffs, but I'd rather base that on the quality of the actual pitches thrown, than metrics like quality starts.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

We have yet to have a QS this off-season.

The key number for the Giants this year may end up being 160...




The number of starts by our regular rotation during the regular season. I think Boch has learned that he HAS to work in at least 10-15 starts a year by "#6" guys. Those are tough surrender games, but absolutely critical to the playoff push. In '10, we had Welle and Martinez combined for 12 starts, but Bum was a mid-season add.

Really though Vog had a very good start last series 5 ip 1 er - I know it doesn't meet the definition, but I for one was reassured by that start. I think he's back on track - 4 good starts in a row now, so I feel pretty good heading into this game. Cain needs to step it up and we'll have a shot. Bumgarner... his FB was only around 88 last night... I think he's fatigued.

It doesn't help that every mistake from every starter is just absolutely getting crushed right now. You don't usually see every mistake getting crushed so I think there's some bad luck too.

 

[SF11704]

This is a real tough thing to get a handle on. As MSG or GP noted this isn't just a 'playoff' issue. Our SP started to exhibit these signs sometime in September. The QS became much more scarce as we moved into the end of the season. I personally just thought it was because we had sort of gone into a 'coast' mode late in the last month. The first time I was really aware of it was when Tron started having some problems. I think they said he had 20 or so QS and then everything went south for him. It just seems that now our SP is having an issue trying to get trough the 5th. Maybe it's just my imagination but it also looks like they are getting hit hard AFTER getting two strikes on the batter. I really don't get the impression they are pitching that much from behind.

 

[gp956]

Starting pitcher workloads 2012 - 2011

Approximately, i.e. within a couple of pitches of the actual number.

Bum (+67)
Cain (-143)
Timmy (-306)
Vogelsong (0) <--- yes, includes Fresno starts

 

[gp956]

This is a real tough thing to get a handle on. As MSG or GP noted this isn't just a 'playoff' issue. Our SP started to exhibit these signs sometime in September. The QS became much more scarce as we moved into the end of the season. I personally just thought it was because we had sort of gone into a 'coast' mode late in the last month. The first time I was really aware of it was when Tron started having some problems. I think they said he had 20 or so QS and then everything went south for him. It just seems that now our SP is having an issue trying to get trough the 5th. Maybe it's just my imagination but it also looks like they are getting hit hard AFTER getting two strikes on the batter. I really don't get the impression they are pitching that much from behind.

Yeah, I see the same thing.

 

[Heathbar012]

Yeah, I see the same thing.

Maybe some of that has to do with the fact that every person that has watched any baseball this year knows that Buster Posey is going to call for a high fastball in that scenario. MadBum was doing a great job of keeping the ball down until after that 0-2 base knock that he gave up to Yadier Molina. With nobody on, I very much prefer the curve ball in the dirt to the high fastball. I understand that changing sight lines during an at bat is important, but so is being unpredictable.

 

[filosofy29]

Maybe some of that has to do with the fact that every person that has watched any baseball this year knows that Buster Posey is going to call for a high fastball in that scenario. MadBum was doing a great job of keeping the ball down until after that 0-2 base knock that he gave up to Yadier Molina. With nobody on, I very much prefer the curve ball in the dirt to the high fastball. I understand that changing sight lines during an at bat is important, but so is being unpredictable.

As a former pitcher (albeit, not a good one), I'd argue that being unpredictable (at least at the MLB level) is the most important attribute a pitcher can have (even over electric stuff). I'd say it's way more important now than it ever has been. With all of the film, money/analysis, and ridiculous amounts of education at a teams/scouts fingertips, it's not hard to find patterns eventually whether it's with the pitchers themselves or the catchers preferences. If a novice like myself can pick up on a couple of Posey's tendencies, than I'm sure that a keen baseball mind can figure out a lot more. Keeping hitters off balance whether it's changing sight lines, speeds or mixing up first pitch/2 strike options is a huge thing.

Krukow said in the Reds series something to the effect that [paraphrased] "Phillips hadn't had an off-balance swing yet" (and it was in game 4 or 5 I believe when he said that). Obviously, a lot of that can just be a hitter being in the zone, but I think diligent homework could have been a big part of that too. Maybe that's what Timmay and Zeets are saying by going with Hector.....there may not be enough of a book on his tendencies yet.....without coming right out and saying "Posey needs to change up his pitching sequences". With Bum, Vogey and Cain, they still have pin point control/accuracy where the problems aren't exacerbated as much as with Zeets/Lince starting out with a couple walks here and there.

The good thing is that Posey seems to be a student of the game and a smart baseball mind in general. The good thing about having a "book" on oneself is that once it's brought to your attention, you can rewrite that "book" and turn a weakness into a strength. The bad news is, Posey either hasn't been told yet, or he knows it, but is too proud to change it. Or I could be all sorts of full of shit wrong on the entire subject.

This is all just spit-balling here, so take it with a basketball sized grain of salt.