Florida Recruiting...

[LawDawg]

Meh, maybe you're right, maybe not. Star rankings are over ranked.

I think my primary reaction was the correct one; fuck FSUx.

You know who says star rankings are over ranked? Fans from teams who don’t get highly rated players. Trust me, I used every excuse in the book when Richt was constantly getting Plan B guys. Enough stars to win 10 games, not enough to get to the top. Stars matter. Look at the ration of 5* that get to the NFL and it is obvious that stars matter. It narrows the margin of error as 5* are far more likely to pan out than a coach finding a diamond in the rough.

 

[Deep Creek]

Not sure why you posted this. It proves exactly what I said. UF, FSU, Auburn, then a bunch of medicore teams. That’s not how you recruit if you want to win the SEC, let alone a NC. Trust me, this is exactly how Richt recruited, and it will get you 10 win seasons, but not much more.

Agree 100%. I've been saying this for years. The pool of potential CFP champions 2-3 years out becomes very, very shallow on national signing day of the current year. If you ain't in the top 10-15 in recruiting you ain't gonna win it...no matter how good your coaching/talent development is. In CFB, nattys are more about recruiting than the other aspects of coaching IMHO.

Having said that, I fully expect to hear from the Saban, Urban, Dabo, etal clans about how they have to do amazing coaching jobs with those top recruits in order to win a natty...blah, blah, blah. I'll just ask this one question. What years did any of them win a natty when they had three #25-#30ish ranked recruiting classes in the years immediately prior to that natty?

 

[Rolltide94]

Your OL recruiting this cycle is really good. We will get Mims, but getting Fergusen was great for you guys. You guys stacked the OL this cycle for sure.

Yeah, I've pretty happy about it, with what we have and what we have coming in, I feel good about our O-line more than any other position group. Linebackers pretty good too.

 

[Rolltide94]

I'll give you props the o-line recruits have been insane. Of course I like Auburn's d-line recruiting as a counter but we need a o-line pipeline then where are in serious business. I'm liking what I see so far though.

D-line recruiting has been a forte of Auburn as long as I can remember....always at least one guy that is off the chains good, and often multiples. DISLIKE.

 

[Duckboy33]

Agree 100%. I've been saying this for years. The pool of potential CFP champions 2-3 years out becomes very, very shallow on national signing day of the current year. If you ain't in the top 10-15 in recruiting you ain't gonna win it...no matter how good your coaching/talent development is. In CFB, nattys are more about recruiting than the other aspects of coaching IMHO.

Having said that, I fully expect to hear from the Saban, Urban, Dabo, etal clans about how they have to do amazing coaching jobs with those top recruits in order to win a natty...blah, blah, blah. I'll just ask this one question. What years did any of them win a natty when they had three #25-#30ish ranked recruiting classes in the years immediately prior to that natty?

If we look at the 247 talent composite since 2015 (last year I could find their data), it backs up that theory. You can make the playoffs with a lower ranking but you really need to be top 10 in order to win it.

2015 season:
1) Clemson (13th in the composite rankings)
2) Alabama (1st) - Won the CFP
3) Michigan State (23rd)
4) Oklahoma (16th)

2016:
1) Alabama (1st)
2) Clemson (9th) - Won the CFP
3) Ohio State (5th)
4) Washington (24th)

2017:
1) Clemson (9th)
2) Oklahoma (16th)
3) Georgia (4th)
4) Alabama (1st) - Won the CFP

2018:
1) Alabama (2nd)
2) Clemson (6th) - Won the CFP
3) Notre Dame (10th)
4) Oklahoma (11th)

2019:
1) LSU (5th) - Won the CFP
2) Ohio State (2nd)
3) Clemson (9th)
4) Oklahoma (8th)

 

[78Cyclones]

Iowa State just landed another Florida 3* from WPB.

2021 DB Winsome Frazier announces commitment to Iowa State

 

[Deep Creek]

If we look at the 247 talent composite since 2015 (last year I could find their data), it backs up that theory. You can make the playoffs with a lower ranking but you really need to be top 10 in order to win it.

2015 season:
1) Clemson (13th in the composite rankings)
2) Alabama (1st) - Won the CFP
3) Michigan State (23rd)
4) Oklahoma (16th)

2016:
1) Alabama (1st)
2) Clemson (9th) - Won the CFP
3) Ohio State (5th)
4) Washington (24th)

2017:
1) Clemson (9th)
2) Oklahoma (16th)
3) Georgia (4th)
4) Alabama (1st) - Won the CFP

2018:
1) Alabama (2nd)
2) Clemson (6th) - Won the CFP
3) Notre Dame (10th)
4) Oklahoma (11th)

2019:
1) LSU (5th) - Won the CFP
2) Ohio State (2nd)
3) Clemson (9th)
4) Oklahoma (8th)

How is the composite calculated?

 

[Wild Turkey]

If we look at the 247 talent composite since 2015 (last year I could find their data), it backs up that theory. You can make the playoffs with a lower ranking but you really need to be top 10 in order to win it.

2015 season:
1) Clemson (13th in the composite rankings)
2) Alabama (1st) - Won the CFP
3) Michigan State (23rd)
4) Oklahoma (16th)

2016:
1) Alabama (1st)
2) Clemson (9th) - Won the CFP
3) Ohio State (5th)
4) Washington (24th)

2017:
1) Clemson (9th)
2) Oklahoma (16th)
3) Georgia (4th)
4) Alabama (1st) - Won the CFP

2018:
1) Alabama (2nd)
2) Clemson (6th) - Won the CFP
3) Notre Dame (10th)
4) Oklahoma (11th)

2019:
1) LSU (5th) - Won the CFP
2) Ohio State (2nd)
3) Clemson (9th)
4) Oklahoma (8th)

1. Clemson has killed it the last 3 years in recruiting and that composite can't be right and no I'm not going to research it but I know.
2. It's definitely proven if you don't have a top 10 recruiting class within 4 years the chances of winning the NC are basically zero since the BCS came to be.
3. All this shows is that the PAC and Big 12 are weak so you don't have to have a top 10 class to make the playoffs but you aren't going to win it either. That is why the argument for conference champions only is insane as that would not get us the best teams.

 

[Duckboy33]

How is the composite calculated?

It takes the recruiting rankings of all the scholarship players on your roster for a given year

 

[Duckboy33]

1. Clemson has killed it the last 3 years in recruiting and that composite can't be right and no I'm not going to research it but I know.
2. It's definitely proven if you don't have a top 10 recruiting class within 4 years the chances of winning the NC are basically zero since the BCS came to be.
3. All this shows is that the PAC and Big 12 are weak so you don't have to have a top 10 class to make the playoffs but you aren't going to win it either. That is why the argument for conference champions only is insane as that would not get us the best teams.

Clemson’s numbers are correct. Forget about the 2020 and 2021 classes. They weren’t on campus for any of the seasons listed

 

[Gatorchip]

He’s not on the brink of winning the SEC. UF is not nearly as talented as UGA in the east, nor Bama or LSU in the West. He will have UTjr and TAMU on the rise, as well. He’s a terrible recruiter. Unless he makes staff changes that can overcome his awkwardness, it won’t happen.

In other responses people are saying how great he has been in his first two years. If that is the case, how come that hasn’t translated into recruiting wins? They will likely end up like last year, around 9 or 10. That doesn’t put you on the brink of winning the SEC. The only reason for optimism this year is a very easy schedule, returning QB, while UGA has to reload at QB, OC, and OL, while breaking in a new O scheme. Unless they recruit better, UF won’t be winning the SEC anytime soon, IMO.

I agree that he isn't a top recruiter. It seems he makes up for those shortcomings through coaching (thus far). The gap is not as wide as you believe it to be between the top in the SEC.

Two seasons ago (Mullen’s first season), the Gators beat LSU. That was coming off of a 4 win season. Last season, they made it a game through the 3rd until LSU retook the lead, and pulled away. That same LSU team that walloped UGA from start to finish. The Gators were within 1 score against UGA last season. Georgia had a few close games last season, as did Florida.


Now I don’t count moral victories. The Gators lost twice, and could have lost more… But what it shows me is that Mullen is making progress. Maybe he won't pull in those 5-star recruits, but hopefully he pulls in enough 4-stars that are a "system fit" to allow for victories. I think the Gators are on their way up.

I never felt this way about either of the last two coaches, even when Muschamp had that surprisingly good year. It always felt off to me.

 

[LawDawg]

Here are some more numbers. It would seem logical to go back to the previous 4 years of recruiting prior to winning a NC, especially 3 and 4 years previous as those would be your older players. Looking at the teams that won NC since 2014:

2019 - LSU
15
7
2
5

2018 - Clemson
16 (14 commits, 4th by average)
11
9
16

2017 - Alabama
1
1
1
1

2016 - Clemson
9
16
15
20

2105 - Alabama
1
1
1
1

2014 - tOSU
5
2
6
18

2013 - FSU
11
4
2
8
Starting in 2012

Clemson is really the only aberration here. In 2016 they had a transcendent QB, and they have the advantage of playing the ACC. But, Dabo does it differently.

LSU, Bama, Bama and FSU all make sense ... top 5 classes and other good classes.

Just as an FYI, here are the recruiting rankings since 2012 for the teams that have had a shot at the NC in the last 6 or 7 years (plus UF for comparison). While UGA and LSU have been recruiting well, all you have to do is look at Bama and see why playing in the SEC is a bitch. This is why UF recruiting in the teens and 9-ish won't work ... you play UGA and LSU each year, and even if you beat them both you have to get through Bama.

Also, playing in the B12 and ACC obviously gives you wiggle room in recruiting. B1G teams like PSU, UM, and Wisky can look at tOSU and know why it's so hard to get past them:

UA - 1,1,1,1,1,1,5,1,2
UGA - 9,12,8,6,6,3,1,2,1
LSU - 13,6,2,5,2,7,15,5,4
UF - 3,3,9,21,12,11,14,9,9
tOSU - 5,2,3,7,4,2,2,14,5
Clemson - 20,15,16,9,11,16,7,10,3
OU - 12,16,14,15,19,8,9,6,11
FSU - 4,11,4,3,3,6,11,18,22

 

[LawDawg]

The gap is not as wide as you believe it to be between the top in the SEC.

Maybe he won't pull in those 5-star recruits, but hopefully he pulls in enough 4-stars that are a "system fit" to allow for victories. I think the Gators are on their way up.

Yeah, the gap is as wide as I believe. Starting with Bama, and then UGA and LSU. As I said in the above post, you have to get past all 3 to get to the CFP. It's not likely you can "coach" past that, especially if UTjr gets better, and you catch AU or TAMU from the West from time to time. At the end of the day, the talent gap is too much. Occasionally win some of those games? Sure. Beat all 3 in a season? Not until you start recruiting top 5 year in year out.

 

[Duckboy33]

Here are some more numbers. It would seem logical to go back to the previous 4 years of recruiting prior to winning a NC, especially 3 and 4 years previous as those would be your older players. Looking at the teams that won NC since 2014:

2019 - LSU
15
7
2
5

2018 - Clemson
16 (14 commits, 4th by average)
11
9
16

2017 - Alabama
1
1
1
1

2016 - Clemson
9
16
15
20

2105 - Alabama
1
1
1
1

2014 - FSU
11
4
2
8
Starting in 2012

Clemson is really the only aberration here. In 2016 they had a transcendent QB, and they have the advantage of playing the ACC. But, Dabo does it differently.

LSU, Bama, Bama and FSU all make sense ... top 5 classes and other good classes.

Just as an FYI, here are the recruiting rankings since 2012 for the teams that have had a shot at the NC in the last 6 or 7 years (plus UF for comparison). While UGA and LSU have been recruiting well, all you have to do is look at Bama and see why playing in the SEC is a bitch. This is why UF recruiting in the teens and 9-ish won't work ... you play UGA and LSU each year, and even if you beat them both you have to get through Bama.

Also, playing in the B12 and ACC obviously gives you wiggle room in recruiting. B1G teams like PSU, UM, and Wisky can look at tOSU and know why it's so hard to get past them:

UA - 1,1,1,1,1,1,5,1,2
UGA - 9,12,8,6,6,3,1,2,1
LSU - 13,6,2,5,2,7,15,5,4
UF - 3,3,9,21,12,11,14,9,9
tOSU - 5,2,3,7,4,2,2,14,5
Clemson - 20,15,16,9,11,16,7,10,3
OU - 12,16,14,15,19,8,9,6,11
FSU - 4,11,4,3,3,6,11,18,22

2014 should be Ohio State, FSU was 2013

 

[LawDawg]

2014 should be Ohio State, FSU was 2013

Thanks ... saw the date of the actual game.

 

[LawDawg]

I updated it. Had to hurry before editing timed out, but think that is correct.

 

[Gatorchip]

Yeah, the gap is as wide as I believe. Starting with Bama, and then UGA and LSU. As I said in the above post, you have to get past all 3 to get to the CFP. It's not likely you can "coach" past that, especially if UTjr gets better, and you catch AU or TAMU from the West from time to time. At the end of the day, the talent gap is too much. Occasionally win some of those games? Sure. Beat all 3 in a season? Not until you start recruiting top 5 year in year out.

Your case fails in that we don't see UGA beating them all in the same season either.

All evidence proves that Georgia has great recruiting, and average coaching.

 

[LawDawg]

Your case fails in that we don't see UGA beating them all in the same season either.

All evidence proves that Georgia has great recruiting, and average coaching.

To the contrary, UGA proves the point. If we can't get over the Bama hump with the talent we have, what makes you think you can do it without anywhere near close the talent?

As for average coaching, two things: (1) last I checked recruiting is part of college coaching. Yours isn't very good at it. (2) Smart has been a head coach for 4 years. I'd say he is above average, and still learning.

I'd rather have a coach who is a lights out recruiter, who is young and learning how to be a head coach, than a coach who is purportedly a great game coach but awkward as hell and can't recruit.

 

[Gatorchip]

To the contrary, UGA proves the point. If we can't get over the Bama hump with the talent we have, what makes you think you can do it without anywhere near close the talent?

As for average coaching, two things: (1) last I checked recruiting is part of college coaching. Yours isn't very good at it. (2) Smart has been a head coach for 4 years. I'd say he is above average, and still learning.

I'd rather have a coach who is a lights out recruiter, who is young and learning how to be a head coach, than a coach who is purportedly a great game coach but awkward as hell and can't recruit.

The bama hump? No, it's not just Alabama. Georgia got demolished by LSU and lost to USCe last season. Lost to both LSU and Bama 2 seasons ago, and then Auburn and Alabama 3 seasons ago. It gets worse from there. It's not a bama hump, it's a coaching hump.

So you admit you would rather have some of the best talent out there, and keep losing due to coaching. That's exactly what we have come to expect with UGA fans. You are happy with 2+ losses every season, just like how it has been the past 17 seasons for Georgia.

Great job Georgia. Keep it up.

 

[Deep Creek]

Clemson is really the only aberration here. In 2016 they had a transcendent QB, and they have the advantage of playing the ACC. But, Dabo does it differently.

And Dabo could be doing better job in development.