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First look at the Bears offseason (mock free agents and full draft)

Lake Shore Drive

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I see Jonah Williams wants out of Cincy because of the Orlando Brown signing.......

I always thought he was a top 15 olineman,but I read he had a dysmal season last year.......a 61 grade kast season...
But he had a 74.5 offensive grade in 2021 and a 70.1 grade in 2020......

Any thoughts.......??
Not crazy about the sacks and pressures allowed. He seems to be in decline. There's a reason Cincy wanted Brown to replace him.
 

averagejoe

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OFFENSIVE LINE
• Of the 421 players drafted, 147 wound up as starters for at least half their career.
The first round has an 83% success rate. The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).

DEFENSIVE LINE
Defensive line ties for the lowest first round success rate at 58% (with RB and WR).
• Of 442 players selected, only 114 have become starters for at least half their careers.
Drafting a defensive lineman in the 4th round has the highest success rate of all positions at 37%.

Disclaimer: This data is about 10 years old but someone researched the success rate of each position and each round of the draft from 2005 thru 2014. Some more current studies were similar but did not break down the success rate at each position.
 

cwalke3408

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I see Jonah Williams wants out of Cincy because of the Orlando Brown signing.......

I always thought he was a top 15 olineman,but I read he had a dysmal season last year.......a 61 grade kast season...
But he had a 74.5 offensive grade in 2021 and a 70.1 grade in 2020......

Any thoughts.......??
I still can't get over his CFB performance vs Clelin Ferrel and since joining the league he's been 'ok'
 

Lake Shore Drive

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Got some time to kill, I figured why not hand out grades for each of our free agent signings. They are based not just on the signings in and of themselves, but relative to the positions, the values of the contracts, the roles these guys will play, as well as the impact they should each have on the club's fortunes. Altho my feeble memory is already faded as to the timelines, I'll list the players and grades in order of when we signed them, altho my timeline might be off on this. Anyway:

TJ Edwards, A+ - The first signing also happens to be the best one when factoring his talent vs the extremely team-friendly contract
Tremaine Edwards, A - The star FA signing, I tempered the grade back a touch due to the fact it's also the most expensive, but he's worth it
Nate Davis, B+ - Would have only given him a C+ max the day he was signed, but the film I've seen on him gave me reason to up the grade
DeMarcus Walker, C+ -Would also have given him a lower grade at the time of the signing, but one analyst said he's a steal, so we shall see
Travis Homer, C - Not a bad signing, just doesn't move the needle much, as an RB3 he was hired primarily for his ST play
PJ Walker, B - With his style of play, he's more fitting as a backup than Trevor Semien, but I hope we only see him in mop up duties
Andrew Billings, C - No problems with him as a role/sub player, yet until a better upgrade comes along, he's right now a starter
D'Onta Foremen, A - Would have been an A+ if Poles inked him for more than just one year, think he's gonna be the steal of this group
Robert Tonyan, A- - Nice Ying to Cole Kmet's Yang, more receiver than blocker, good RZ target, plus he came from the enemy camp

So analyzing this as a collective package and giving some grades more weight due to positional strength and depth, I'm raising my overall free agent grade at this point to a solid B+

However, I'm still inclined to pull back a half grade for Poles unless he adds as a minimum an OT and a DT at some point in this remaining offseason. It can be another upcoming signing, the draft, or a result from a post June 1 cut. Of course depending who he acquires, the grade can also go up, which I'm expecting to be the case. And remember, I'm not yet factoring in the grade I gave Poles for the trade back with the Panthers, which was a firm A, perhaps borderline A+

Flame away boys.
 

cwalke3408

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Jonah Williams beef is that he wants to stick to LT and not move to RT.
So a team willing to trade for Jonah would need to give up a possible 3rd round pick, take on his $12 million dollar contract for player who's been hurt for a good bit of his career and coming off a season which he gave up 12 sacks.

I don't see a team taking that bait, most likely Jonah will need to take his medicine and move to RT for the Bengals
 

BsGenius

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So analyzing this as a collective package and giving some grades more weight due to positional strength and depth, I'm raising my overall free agent grade at this point to a solid B+
He goes from a C+ to a B+ in a blink of an eye (rolls eyes)
 

justanidiot

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Got some time to kill, I figured why not hand out grades for each of our free agent signings. They are based not just on the signings in and of themselves, but relative to the positions, the values of the contracts, the roles these guys will play, as well as the impact they should each have on the club's fortunes. Altho my feeble memory is already faded as to the timelines, I'll list the players and grades in order of when we signed them, altho my timeline might be off on this. Anyway:

TJ Edwards, A+ - The first signing also happens to be the best one when factoring his talent vs the extremely team-friendly contract
Tremaine Edwards, A - The star FA signing, I tempered the grade back a touch due to the fact it's also the most expensive, but he's worth it
Nate Davis, B+ - Would have only given him a C+ max the day he was signed, but the film I've seen on him gave me reason to up the grade
DeMarcus Walker, C+ -Would also have given him a lower grade at the time of the signing, but one analyst said he's a steal, so we shall see
Travis Homer, C - Not a bad signing, just doesn't move the needle much, as an RB3 he was hired primarily for his ST play
PJ Walker, B - With his style of play, he's more fitting as a backup than Trevor Semien, but I hope we only see him in mop up duties
Andrew Billings, C - No problems with him as a role/sub player, yet until a better upgrade comes along, he's right now a starter
D'Onta Foremen, A - Would have been an A+ if Poles inked him for more than just one year, think he's gonna be the steal of this group
Robert Tonyan, A- - Nice Ying to Cole Kmet's Yang, more receiver than blocker, good RZ target, plus he came from the enemy camp

So analyzing this as a collective package and giving some grades more weight due to positional strength and depth, I'm raising my overall free agent grade at this point to a solid B+

However, I'm still inclined to pull back a half grade for Poles unless he adds as a minimum an OT and a DT at some point in this remaining offseason. It can be another upcoming signing, the draft, or a result from a post June 1 cut. Of course depending who he acquires, the grade can also go up, which I'm expecting to be the case. And remember, I'm not yet factoring in the grade I gave Poles for the trade back with the Panthers, which was a firm A, perhaps borderline A+

Flame away boys.
I am not sure about the tackle. Lets see the room, Jones, Borom, Leatherwood, Jenkins. Leatherwood and Jenkins are the first round picks at tackle and are behind a pair of fifth rounders. The film on Davis and Jones are probably pretty similar.
Its really hard to blame the line for the pass protection when they have no clue where the quarterback is when he takes off so quickly. Borom and Jones got credit for every good rushing game we had by a running back last year.
 

Lake Shore Drive

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I am not sure about the tackle. Lets see the room, Jones, Borom, Leatherwood, Jenkins. Leatherwood and Jenkins are the first round picks at tackle and are behind a pair of fifth rounders. The film on Davis and Jones are probably pretty similar.
Its really hard to blame the line for the pass protection when they have no clue where the quarterback is when he takes off so quickly. Borom and Jones got credit for every good rushing game we had by a running back last year.
Not exactly sure what you're getting at, but I think you might be suggesting that we shouldn't necessarily be seeking an OT with our first pick, based on a unit that has a number of 1st round busts or near busts. We just have to remember that no previous bust or superstar pick for that matter at a given position means the same will happen with our pick. If the BPA is there when Poles is on the clock and that BPA happens to be a tackle, then Poles shouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. I trust he'd never take into account previous histories at any position.
 

wood20ks

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Jonah Williams beef is that he wants to stick to LT and not move to RT.
So a team willing to trade for Jonah would need to give up a possible 3rd round pick, take on his $12 million dollar contract for player who's been hurt for a good bit of his career and coming off a season which he gave up 12 sacks.

I don't see a team taking that bait, most likely Jonah will need to take his medicine and move to RT for the Bengals

Ya,your right.........

Braxton is the left tackle, not sure why anyone thinks that is going to change. If your biggest weakness as a rookie is anchor strength that is a GREAT sign. We are not going to sign a Bengals cast off to play LT at 16M when we are paying Braxton peanuts.
 

justanidiot

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Not exactly sure what you're getting at, but I think you might be suggesting that we shouldn't necessarily be seeking an OT with our first pick, based on a unit that has a number of 1st round busts or near busts. We just have to remember that no previous bust or superstar pick for that matter at a given position means the same will happen with our pick. If the BPA is there when Poles is on the clock and that BPA happens to be a tackle, then Poles shouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. I trust he'd never take into account previous histories at any position.
you just mentioned that you wanted to see more OT and DT picked up. If its Skoronski, they Jones, Borom and Leatherwood are challenging for the RT, guessing Jenkins would go to left guard when they cut Whitehair and then get another backup for when he gets hurt. I hate Whitehair at center, but hate him less than Mustipher. I still want to see Dieter get a shot to win the center spot. Just another inside lineman who will do better with his next team if he gets a shot elsewhere.

Just seems like people are into new names instead of realizing what was in the room. We watched Alex Bars get passed over waiting for a shot here. About to do the same with Dieter.

I would be fine passing on OT if they trade down again and take the best center on the board, I dont think there are any targeted in the first round anyway.
 

Lake Shore Drive

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I would be fine passing on OT if they trade down again and take the best center on the board, I dont think there are any targeted in the first round anyway.
Ok, just wanted to be clear. With respect to the 1st pick I'm probably leaning toward the DL, be it DE/Edge or DT. But so are other teams ahead of us who aren't picking a QB, so it may turn out that the best player on Poles board once he's on the clock is someone from the OL. This is all just guesswork, I have no idea who he has lined up as his so-called 7 blue chippers and how he has them ranked. I'm pretty sure I'm going to do a 3 round mock at some point prior to the draft, and most likely will do two versions, one with our first pick being on the D, the other with the O - gotta cover my bases here.
 

justanidiot

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they covered the interior d tackle places with rotational guys, I dont know if they think Carter may fall to them or have not signed a DE because there are plenty of choices in the draft. I still stick with Myles since he is big enough to play this 4-3 already and he has not done anything for that spot yet.

Interesting read: Ryan Poles explains why Bears didn't target Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency

one of the best in football does not fit our scheme. Hmmm. Super bowl champ does not fit our scheme.
 
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wood20ks

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they covered the interior d tackle places with rotational guys, I dont know if they think Carter may fall to them or have not signed a DE because there are plenty of choices in the draft. I still stick with Myles since he is big enough to play this 4-3 already and he has not done anything for that spot yet.

Interesting read: Ryan Poles explains why Bears didn't target Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency

one of the best in football does not fit our scheme. Hmmm. Super bowl champ does not fit our scheme.

Braxton dud a decent job last season for a 5th rd pick........sure he haf some rookie mistakes,but they all do..........And I think we are done with the oline for freeagency with nothing on the dline......

Im really hoping for Paris at no.9,but would not be surprised if he we dline.......
If so,Im up for Tyree Wilson.
 
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Jiddy

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they covered the interior d tackle places with rotational guys, I dont know if they think Carter may fall to them or have not signed a DE because there are plenty of choices in the draft. I still stick with Myles since he is big enough to play this 4-3 already and he has not done anything for that spot yet.

Interesting read: Ryan Poles explains why Bears didn't target Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency

one of the best in football does not fit our scheme. Hmmm. Super bowl champ does not fit our scheme.

You're just conjuring sh*t with this post. It's almost 100% a healthy Braxton Jones is our left tackle for 2023-both now AND before FA happened.

We need a goddamn center and to figure out what's happening at RT-possibly guard if we move Jenkins over. We also need quality players on the d-line. After that we need to secure our depth across the board and potentially improve in areas where the starters don't step up.

For 2023, we cross our figures our QB and coaching staff make this thing purr and then fill in the blanks from there. This isn't rocket science and Orlando Brown Jr. isn't the end-all be-all.
 

justanidiot

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You're just conjuring sh*t with this post. It's almost 100% a healthy Braxton Jones is our left tackle for 2023-both now AND before FA happened.

We need a goddamn center and to figure out what's happening at RT-possibly guard if we move Jenkins over. We also need quality players on the d-line. After that we need to secure our depth across the board and potentially improve in areas where the starters don't step up.

For 2023, we cross our figures our QB and coaching staff make this thing purr and then fill in the blanks from there. This isn't rocket science and Orlando Brown Jr. isn't the end-all be-all.
well, I would have much rather heard that they are happy with the personnel they have here. A vote of confidence instead of trying to keep making these guys think they are fighting for their jobs. Even if he wants an upgrade, he does not show his hand for the draft pick. Beats buying a QB when you were going to trade up to get one.

Seems we will be back to Cody and his, where is the next shotgun snap going to go this time center play instead of cutting him, so no luck on getting a better center.
 

BearsWillWin

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well, I would have much rather heard that they are happy with the personnel they have here. A vote of confidence instead of trying to keep making these guys think they are fighting for their jobs.

Why shouldn't a guy coming off his first year in the league, where he was not great by any means, go into the offseason program thinking he needs to improve to solidify his spot?
so no luck on getting a better center.

Did I miss something and the draft is over already?
 

Jiddy

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well, I would have much rather heard that they are happy with the personnel they have here. A vote of confidence instead of trying to keep making these guys think they are fighting for their jobs. Even if he wants an upgrade, he does not show his hand for the draft pick. Beats buying a QB when you were going to trade up to get one.

Seems we will be back to Cody and his, where is the next shotgun snap going to go this time center play instead of cutting him, so no luck on getting a better center.

I think it's almost a certainty we will draft a center. Jones and Jenkins will both be on our line next season. We'll see about the rest.
 

Lake Shore Drive

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so no luck on getting a better center.
Did I miss something and the draft is over already?
Funny the subject of center and the draft is brought up here. Having just come up with a 3 round/4 pick mock draft, I didn't have a center selected. Yet if I came up with that mock even as soon as a week ago, I'm pretty sure I would have included a center in the mix. The reason I didn't go that route is suddenly due to all this talk about Whitehair not getting the ax and will shift back to the center position. Assuming this is true, I couldn't find a reason to use one of our top 4 picks on a center. Sure, we can still take one in the later rounds, but unless Poles ends up releasing Whitehair, I'm thinking no chance of us taking one early.
 

BearsWillWin

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Funny the subject of center and the draft is brought up here. Having just come up with a 3 round/4 pick mock draft, I didn't have a center selected. Yet if I came up with that mock even as soon as a week ago, I'm pretty sure I would have included a center in the mix. The reason I didn't go that route is suddenly due to all this talk about Whitehair not getting the ax and will shift back to the center position. Assuming this is true, I couldn't find a reason to use one of our top 4 picks on a center. Sure, we can still take one in the later rounds, but unless Poles ends up releasing Whitehair, I'm thinking no chance of us taking one early.

Even if they move Whitehair over and he's gonna be the starter...we still need interior depth.

So even if it's not an early pick...the odds of drafting a center at some point are probably rather high.

Important to note Poles didn't say Whitehair is THE center. His words word we are gonna try him there. And he said they are gonna find the best 3 to front to the interior.
 
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