Fantasy Football News and Rumors

[TREFF]

Ok, I'll play the role of Jane Curtin with the counterpoint.

Having a stud or elite RB (as necessary as they are to balance the offense), is no longer the prerequisite. The days of Payton, Emmitt, LT, Alexander, Bell and Faulk are over.

In the last 20 seasons, only 2 RB have been named the Super Bowl MVP. (The last was Edelman, and i doubt anyone is calling him elite.)

The NFL MVP in the last 20 years is no different. Only 2 RB were named league MVP the last 20 and none in the last decade. (Alexander & LT in 05 & 06 resply.)

As much as teams absolutely need a RB to move the ball, they dont need an elite RB to move the ball.

Teams that still believe in the elite RB end up wasting valuable team cap space which then limits what you can invest in for the other positions on offense.

Might be tough to name a team with a tier 1 or 2 RB who is earmarked to go deep in the playoffs. Maybe SF. End of list.

All more or less true...but doesn't apply to guys who are their teams offensive centerpiece, and those previous few who do things the replacements cannot.

Barkley, CMAC, Ekeler, Henry..Kamara before them, Peterson, Sanders, Fualk, Tomlinson...
I don't care if the teams wins the super bowl or even makes it to one. What matters is just how crappy would that team be if you take away THAT guy.

It's not about a team needing a great RB to win a super bowl, we're all very aware that you either need a great QB, or a great D and a QB who won't F it up to win a SB, and most likely the QB is gonna win those MVP's. But those other 25 or so teams who don't have some semblance of those things? They're crap without a strong running game. Winning the SB is not the only measure of success. The ultimate, but not the only.

And as to valuable cap space... don't pay mediocre QB's like Jones 40 million, give Barkley 15-18, and sign a cheaper mediocre QB- ...Youre still WAY ahead. You cant sell me on the RB being the waste of valuable cap space when the Christian Kirk's of the league are making 18-20, and schmoes like Jones, Carr, Murray, Goff, and Tranny are pulling in 30-40+ million. That's where you're wasting cap space.

I mean please understand, I'm not talking about the typical RBs. If a dude is replaceable, he's replaceable, and he has to fight for whatever scraps he can get, I think that's fair. But those who aren't? Doesn't matter if their team is a SB favorite, he's their best shot at being relevant, at maintaining respectability, at keeping fans placated...he deserves to be paid as such.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Ok, I'll play the role of Jane Curtin with the counterpoint.

Having a stud or elite RB (as necessary as they are to balance the offense), is no longer the prerequisite. The days of Payton, Emmitt, LT, Alexander, Bell and Faulk are over.

In the last 20 seasons, only 2 RB have been named the Super Bowl MVP. (The last was Edelman, and i doubt anyone is calling him elite.)

The NFL MVP in the last 20 years is no different. Only 2 RB were named league MVP the last 20 and none in the last decade. (Alexander & LT in 05 & 06 resply.)

As much as teams absolutely need a RB to move the ball, they dont need an elite RB to move the ball.

Teams that still believe in the elite RB end up wasting valuable team cap space which then limits what you can invest in for the other positions on offense.

Might be tough to name a team with a tier 1 or 2 RB who is earmarked to go deep in the playoffs. Maybe SF. End of list.

I think it goes both ways for the Giants. You don’t win anymore with an elite RB that is overpaid and you don’t win spending a lot on an average to good QB. You need an elite one unless it’s a special circumstance like Eli going off and his elite defense

 

[averagejoe]

What matters is just how crappy would that team be if you take away THAT guy.

Perhaps they'd be crappy.
But per ProFootball Ref, they only gave carries to Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell.

Saquon has 295 attempts, 1312 rush yards for 4.4 per carry average.
Breida & Brightwell had 85 attempts, 361 rush yards for 4.2 per carry average.

 

[TREFF]

Perhaps they'd be crappy.
But per ProFootball Ref, they only gave carries to Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell.

Saquon has 295 attempts, 1312 rush yards for 4.4 per carry average.
Breida & Brightwell had 85 attempts, 361 rush yards for 4.2 per carry average.

Surely even as a devils advocate type argument, it's not being iimplied that Matt Brieda and/or Brightwell can do what Barkley does, or have the affect on an opposing defense that Barkley does right?
Lots of backups can be impressive in short stints, heck Brieda was even moderately impressive as a starter for Lil Shanny for half a year. Hell, Chase Edmonds turned his little flashes as a backup into a contract that is quickly driving the death nail into the RB market as a whole.

 

[TREFF]

I think it goes both ways for the Giants. You don’t win anymore with an elite RB that is overpaid and you don’t win spending a lot on an average to good QB. You need an elite one unless it’s a special circumstance like Eli going off and his elite defense

Eli did have some traits that made his GameDay play better than his ability, I gotta give him that. He did have 'some' of his brother in him as far as a on feild offensive coordinator. And yeah he had some really strong D's -not too mention- Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmed Bradshaw, and eventually, Saquon-- more often than not, a plus run game to lean on

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Ok, I'll play the role of Jane Curtin with the counterpoint.

Having a stud or elite RB (as necessary as they are to balance the offense), is no longer the prerequisite. The days of Payton, Emmitt, LT, Alexander, Bell and Faulk are over.

In the last 20 seasons, only 2 RB have been named the Super Bowl MVP. (The last was Edelman, and i doubt anyone is calling him elite.)

The NFL MVP in the last 20 years is no different. Only 2 RB were named league MVP the last 20 and none in the last decade. (Alexander & LT in 05 & 06 resply.)

As much as teams absolutely need a RB to move the ball, they dont need an elite RB to move the ball.

Teams that still believe in the elite RB end up wasting valuable team cap space which then limits what you can invest in for the other positions on offense.

Might be tough to name a team with a tier 1 or 2 RB who is earmarked to go deep in the playoffs. Maybe SF. End of list.

Here is milks rebuttal, even though none of this post is revolutionary...


there will always be many ways to win... being a run first offense with an elite RB is still a valid way for success... look at how the titans, have basically dominated that division during Henry's prime...

the problem with being a run first offense, is that there is too much maintenance and not a long enough window... a successful run first offense needs an elite offensive line, and an elite RB... sure offensive line is crucial for a pass first offense too, but there are ways around it, like having a good scrambling QB, or even better a QB that is very mobile...

but a run first offense can not survive without a good offensive line... sure, the best RBs can create plays after contact, but that is a lot for the RB...


the point is that the maintenance to keep a run first offense is just so much more than to have a pass first offense... as once you find a good QB, you are set for the next 10+ seasons... and then you can easily plug in WRs as the franchise goes... the window is just so much longer for success... with much less maintenance...

and with the rules constantly changing in favor to help the passing game, it is just so much easier for a long term success to go pass first... and most RBs only have a 5 year span of being good... QBs, WRs, TEs all have successful players after 30 years old...

so it makes sense for teams to go pass first...


I do agree with all that RBs should be paid more early on... but that has an obvious problem to it too... if building a pass first team is clearly easier, and built for a long term future, why would teams want to invest heavily in young RBs??

it really is a catch 22... that really only affects the elite RBs...

I do wonder if the KEEP PLAYERS HEALTHY and protect their futures from CTE, and other horrible health problems after retirement, is another reason for the downfall of the RB value...

 

[TREFF]

Cole friggin Kmett, whose three year production barely exceeds what Barkley put up in 16 games last year and is no way considered a top TE by any measure, gets 12+ mill on average for 5 years, most of it guaranteed, and Barkley, one of the top 3-5 RB's in the game has to meet incentives to get just under 12 mill.

STINKS
TO
HIGH
HEAVEN

 

[Bandit]

Cole friggin Kmett, whose three year production barely exceeds what Barkley put up in 16 games last year and is no way considered a top TE by any measure, gets 12+ mill on average for 5 years, most of it guaranteed, and Barkley, one of the top 3-5 RB's in the game has to meet incentives to get just under 12 mill.

STINKS
TO
HIGH
HEAVEN

It's definitely bad. It certainly hasn't helped that the Super Bowl winning teams lately haven't had shit at running back. We need Christian McCaffery to have a monster year and then have like 220 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Super Bowl and win the MVP. That might be what it takes to get the running back contracts back up to where they should be.

 

[TREFF]

It's definitely bad. It certainly hasn't helped that the Super Bowl winning teams lately haven't had shit at running back. We need Christian McCaffery to have a monster year and then have like 220 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Super Bowl and win the MVP. That might be what it takes to get the running back contracts back up to where they should be.

at the very least it might shut down this reoccurring point in the debate about Sb winners and MVP's that I just can't quite wrap my head around being relevant in the first place. Guess if a guy can't win his team a SB and be the MVP, he shouldn't be paid- so like 500 dudes should be getting vet minimums and only about a dozen worthy of real money?

Hell I'd be happy if 29-30 year old Derrick Henry carries the entire Titans roster into a wild card appearance and wins a game or two

 

[averagejoe]

In some respects, RB created their own mess financially. It may have started with Gurley and Bell (and maybe even Fournette). That may have been the wakeup call for some NFL teams. Their best years came prior to the big $$$ contracts.

Maybe have set back the growth of the Rams (Falcons) and Jets to boot.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

i pull for the commanders and i.ll be happy if they split games w ith their divisional foes this season.

 

[eaglesnut]

In some respects, RB created their own mess financially. It may have started with Gurley and Bell (and maybe even Fournette). That may have been the wakeup call for some NFL teams. Their best years came prior to the big $$$ contracts.

Maybe have set back the growth of the Rams (Falcons) and Jets to boot.

20 year old rookies are not going to hold out just because the 60 year old adults will fuck them financially after their first contact. The NFLPA has to do something, but they are fucked in the head. Just like Jon Gruden said.

 

[TREFF]

In some respects, RB created their own mess financially. It may have started with Gurley and Bell (and maybe even Fournette). That may have been the wakeup call for some NFL teams. Their best years came prior to the big $$$ contracts.

Maybe have set back the growth of the Rams (Falcons) and Jets to boot.

and there's truth to that, sure. And that's why I totally get not wanting a long term, guaranteed commitment on that second or third contract. I totally understand that part of it. The shelf life is what it is. Those precious few who are still elite past 26-27, maybe even on into the early 30's, are the unicorn exception and the rest of the 'field' can't realistically expect to be treated like they'll be fine into their late 20's-early 30's just because that guy or this other guy did.

But honestly, the same could be said for lots of guys and lots of positions. I mean, Fat Albert didn't destroy the value of DT's just because he went to pot after he cashed in, neither did OBJ, who was largely worthless after his big deal, as were all of the following- Allen Robinson, Russel Gage (2022), Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, Nelson Agholor (2021), Manny Sanders (2020),--btw, all those dudes signed for more money, or longer term, or in most cases both, than Barkley just got- and the WR market isn't going down because of all of those terrible contracts. So, while you're not at all wrong, I find it hard to swallow as a legit reason. If NFL teams learned from each others' mistakes and their bad contracts, there would be no Mike Glennon big deal with the Bears after watching the Seahawks and Matt Flynn, which may be part of the start of the chain reaction that created a 40 million pay day for Jones? And obviously those mistakes are still happening, and happening often in the QB market.

To me, it started with the misconception of the RB position being interchangeable, in combination with the short shelf life, and that 'interchangeable' trend all began with Mike Shannahan/ Gary Gibbs in Denver with Terrel Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Davis, culminating in them trading away Clinton Portis for Champ Bailey. The problem being, once the NFL finally declared the key to that system, the chop block and taking the Dlineman out at the knees, as illegal, that has not been the case. Sure Shanny Jr. and Kubiak still use a strong variation of that system, and it more or less works/worked for them, at least theirs are the only teams that have had success in that way. No one else can have plug and play 1000 yard backs, even when they try and implement the same system, it just doesn't work the same. And yet, that is still the common perception, RB's are interchangeable..but the reality is, they just aren't, not all. They may be interchangeable where that new guy can get the job done adequately, in many cases, but why is getting a job done adequately, when it could be done much much better, good enough?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

and there's truth to that, sure. And that's why I totally get not wanting a long term, guaranteed commitment on that second or third contract. I totally understand that part of it. The shelf life is what it is. Those precious few who are still elite past 26-27, maybe even on into the early 30's, are the unicorn exception and the rest of the 'field' can't realistically expect to be treated like they'll be fine into their late 20's-early 30's just because that guy or this other guy did.

But honestly, the same could be said for lots of guys and lots of positions. I mean, Fat Albert didn't destroy the value of DT's just because he went to pot after he cashed in, neither did OBJ, who was largely worthless after his big deal, as were all of the following- Allen Robinson, Russel Gage (2022), Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, Nelson Agholor (2021), Manny Sanders (2020),--btw, all those dudes signed for more money, or longer term, or in most cases both, than Barkley just got- and the WR market isn't going down because of all of those terrible contracts. So, while you're not at all wrong, I find it hard to swallow as a legit reason. If NFL teams learned from each others' mistakes and their bad contracts, there would be no Mike Glennon big deal with the Bears after watching the Seahawks and Matt Flynn, which may be part of the start of the chain reaction that created a 40 million pay day for Jones? And obviously those mistakes are still happening, and happening often in the QB market.

To me, it started with the misconception of the RB position being interchangeable, in combination with the short shelf life, and that 'interchangeable' trend all began with Mike Shannahan/ Gary Gibbs in Denver with Terrel Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Davis, culminating in them trading away Clinton Portis for Champ Bailey. The problem being, once the NFL finally declared the key to that system, the chop block and taking the Dlineman out at the knees, as illegal, that has not been the case. Sure Shanny Jr. and Kubiak still use a strong variation of that system, and it more or less works/worked for them, at least theirs are the only teams that have had success in that way. No one else can have plug and play 1000 yard backs, even when they try and implement the same system, it just doesn't work the same. And yet, that is still the common perception, RB's are interchangeable..but the reality is, they just aren't, not all. They may be interchangeable where that new guy can get the job done adequately, in many cases, but why is getting a job done adequately, when it could be done much much better, good enough?

You and Joe make some good points. Joe pointing out big name RBs not delivering once they got paid and I really like your interchangeable take.
I would add this, it seems easier to identify RBs coming out of college that can transition into the pro's successfully, then it does other positions.
Pretty much why I try to remember draft RBs and trade for WRs in FF, not that I always follow my own advice. LOL

 

[Bandit]

And somewhere in New Jersey, a tear is shed for what could have been:

John Ross retired from the NFL after six seasons.

Ross set the NFL Combine record in 2017 when he blazed a 4.22 40-yard dash. The former Washington Husky would go on to be selected No. 9 overall by the Bengals that season, but injuries and underwhelming play quickly derailed what had the makings of a promising career. Ross signed a reserve/future deal with the Chiefs in January but has opted to hang it up after a few days of training camp. The former first-rounder ends his career with 62 receptions for 957 yards and 11 touchdowns.

 

[averagejoe]

You and Joe make some good points. Joe pointing out big name RBs not delivering once they got paid and I really like your interchangeable take.
I would add this, it seems easier to identify RBs coming out of college that can transition into the pro's successfully, then it does other positions.
Pretty much why I try to remember draft RBs and trade for WRs in FF, not that I always follow my own advice. LOL

Well, I don't have an answer.
I am merely sharing a possible viewpoint.
I would imagine this is a topic for the NFLPA because RB have the shortest shelf life of any position. And most RB, whether its a Marshall Faulk or a Ameer Abdullah can run through (pun) their best years on a rookie contract.

In the last decade, only 5 RB have rushed for more than 1000 yards in a season age 28 or older.
If we move the bar down to age 27, you can add 3 more RB.
If we move the bar again to age 26, the list more than doubles.
Seems like age 26 is the peak. All downhill after that unless they are a generational talent.

Spoiler: list of

 

[Chef99]

What's up with JK Dobbins? Somethin' brewing there...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

What's up with JK Dobbins? Somethin' brewing there...

Contract issue I'd guess.

 

[Chef99]

Contract issue I'd guess.

On the PUP list? Can they do that? Harbaugh makes it sound like there's some kinda mystery goin' on.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

On the PUP list? Can they do that? Harbaugh makes it sound like there's some kinda mystery goin' on.

He's not showing up for camp so.....