Fab 4: all HOFers?

[flyerhawk]

Come on you know the Basketball HOF isn't just the NBA HOF

I think it can make a difference for a guy on the bubble but that's about it.

 

[msgkings322]

I think it can make a difference for a guy on the bubble but that's about it.

So a guy like Draymond then. Remember we're assuming more stats and more titles. If he quit tomorrow he's not in. I think he's on the right trajectory. If guys like Rodman and Hill are in he should be too.

 

[flyerhawk]

So a guy like Draymond then. Remember we're assuming more stats and more titles. If he quit tomorrow he's not in. I think he's on the right trajectory. If guys like Rodman and Hill are in he should be too.

As I said upthread, if Draymond has 5-6 more years similar to how he has performed so far he is probably in.

I think Klay would need to do it a little longer

 

[msgkings322]

As I said upthread, if Draymond has 5-6 more years similar to how he has performed so far he is probably in.

I think Klay would need to do it a little longer

Klay is actually closer than Dray as of now IMO but like all things, we'll see

 

[Heatles84]

The problem for Klay is that he is a great all around player and he is a great shooter. But there are a LOT of great shooters these days.

Where would you rank Klay among active players? Top 25? Top 20? Top 15?

Realistically for a player to be a Hall of Famer they need to be a Top 10 player in the league. I would not put him in that category.

I'd say Klay's top 25. If he was putting these numbers up on a pedestrian team then it'd be different. Titles will help get him in. One thing that's interesting is he hasn't made an all-nba defensive team yet. With Allen essentially done career-wise, I wonder if Klay starts making a dent there. Because I have trouble finding a guard that's a better defender than him. There may be one, but I can't think of one right now.

 

[trojanfan12]

With Allen essentially done career-wise, I wonder if Klay starts making a dent there. Because I have trouble finding a guard that's a better defender than him. There may be one, but I can't think of one right now.

James Harden?

 

[Heatles84]

James Harden?

Leave Harden alone! He was the MVP last year in the series against the Spurs......for the Spurs.

 

[msgkings322]

James Harden?

 

[ericd7633]

The problem for Klay is that he is a great all around player and he is a great shooter. But there are a LOT of great shooters these days.

Where would you rank Klay among active players? Top 25? Top 20? Top 15?

Realistically for a player to be a Hall of Famer they need to be a Top 10 player in the league. I would not put him in that category.

I think Klay is a fringe top 10 guy and has been for about the past 4 years. He is wildly overlooked because of Steph and now KD. There is no doubt in my mind if he was a #1 option he'd average about 25 a game.

 

[ericd7633]

To answer the OP though. I think all 4 eventually get in. I think Steph, Klay and KD make it rather easily.

 

[msgkings322]

I think Klay is a fringe top 10 guy and has been for about the past 4 years. He is wildly overlooked because of Steph and now KD. There is no doubt in my mind if he was a #1 option he'd average about 25 a game.

Agreed he could average that but he's not really cut out to be the alpha dog of a team

 

[tlance]

thats insane.

I dont know ANYONE that would be a "near lock" after only playing 6 and 7 years in the NBA and neither having ever been top 10 players in the league. That is simply not long enough

shit i dont know if Lebron, Curry or Durant would have been HOF'ers after 6-7 years.

I said if they win another title and if he doesn't go the way of D. Rose

He would have 3 championships, a DPOY award, 3 all star appearances, 2 all NBA berths, 3 all defense first team (probably 4), and an Olympic Gold medal.

There are players in the Hall right now with less impressive resumes than that. If he is a solid contributor for 5 more years without another major accolade he has enough to get in. Chances are, he will get other accolades and quite possibly more than 3 titles.

Not crazy at all.

 

[tlance]

KD and Steph are already in. Klay and Draymond have work to do.

Dennis Rodman is certainly the model for Draymond to follow but I would say that Rodman was an absolutely dominant defensive player in his hey day. 8X All NBA defense. Lead the league in rebounding for 7 straight years. 5 NBA titles between 2 teams.

If Draymond remains an elite defensive force for 4 or 5 more year then I can see him getting in. But if he tapers off then I think it is much less likely. Rodman played until he was almost 40.

Klay is a bit trickier to figure. He could definitely get into the Hall but I think he will need to have a really long career to do it or win a LOT of championships.

FYI, BREF has Curry as a 99% chance to make the Hall. Durant a 100% chance to make the Hall, Draymond a 14% chance and Thompson a 12% chance.

Just for comparisons sake this is their list of Hall probability leaders..

NBA & ABA Leaders and Records for Hall of Fame Probability | Basketball-Reference.com

Seems about right to me for the most part although I think Joe Johnson is way way too high and Dwight Howard is as well, although I could see Howard getting in.

There are many guys too high on there.

The list seems to be based on tats without championships factored in. That matters for HOF. If an allstar level player wins a bunch wins a bunch of rings, they usually get in.

 

[ericd7633]

I might be missing something but isn't Klay just a better version of Joe Dumars, who's in the HOF.

 

[flyerhawk]

There are many guys too high on there.

The list seems to be based on tats without championships factored in. That matters for HOF. If an allstar level player wins a bunch wins a bunch of rings, they usually get in.

The model does factor in championships. It also, believe it or not, factors height into the model....

Hall of Fame Probability | Basketball-Reference.com

Obviously it is just a model.

So I decided to look a little further.

If you look at all Hall of Famers that entered the league after 1980....

Player Season Finder | Basketball-Reference.com

That is sorted by their win shares. Only 5 players would have fewer win shares than Klay Thompson.

4 of them are international players(Sabonis, Petrovic, Marciulionis, Radja) who got in for non-NBA players.

The other player is Ralph Sampson.

 

[tlance]

I might be missing something but isn't Klay just a better version of Joe Dumars, who's in the HOF.

IMO, Klay is a significantly better version of Reggie Miller, who won 0 titles, made only 5 all star appearances, never was selected to better than all NBA 3rd team yet still was elected to the HOF.

Klay's scoring numbers from the last 4 seasons compare pretty well to the best stretch of Reggie's career, and Klay is an elite defender playing alongside 2 first team NBA players who need their shots too. Reggie was not a bad defender, but he wasn't Klay either.

 

[ericd7633]

IMO, Klay is a significantly better version of Reggie Miller, who won 0 titles, made only 5 all star appearances, never was selected to better than all NBA 3rd team yet still was elected to the HOF.

Klay's scoring numbers from the last 4 seasons compare pretty well to the best stretch of Reggie's career, and Klay is an elite defender playing alongside 2 first team NBA players who need their shots too. Reggie was not a bad defender, but he wasn't Klay either.

Yeah I'm probably higher on Klay than most people, but if he puts up another 4-5 season like his last 4 seasons, he'll be approaching 18,000 career points, with at worst 2 titles, and probably 5/6 all-star appearances and that's probably worst case scenario IMO.

 

[tlance]

The model does factor in championships. It also, believe it or not, factors height into the model....

Hall of Fame Probability | Basketball-Reference.com

Obviously it is just a model.

So I decided to look a little further.

If you look at all Hall of Famers that entered the league after 1980....

Player Season Finder | Basketball-Reference.com

That is sorted by their win shares. Only 5 players would have fewer win shares than Klay Thompson.

4 of them are international players(Sabonis, Petrovic, Marciulionis, Radja) who got in for non-NBA players.

The other player is Ralph Sampson.

Win shares accumulate though. Klay has not played long enough to get there. He should finish his career with between 80-100 win shares. Possibly more if he plays more than 10 years.

I guess that is the whole point.

I acknowledge neither Klay or Draymond can end their careers today and get in, but they already have the major accolades they need, IMO. They just need to continue posting good, sub all star level seasons.

My guess is that the projection system rewards statistical accumulation over time fairly highly.

 

[DarthVedder]

Well, they are only HOFers if you can make a case for them making it if they retired today.

Curry and KD, yes.
Klay and Draymond no. They will likely keep playing at a high enough level for a few more years, so likely they will get there.

 

[PEOPLESCHICKEN]

So you guys are mostly (not gonna name names) smart NBA fans. On the radio today Steve Kerr said Draymond was a HOFer. I think that's right so I wanted to hear if you guys agreed or not. The following assumes these guys keep playing at a pretty high level for a few more years:

Curry and KD are pretty obviously in. Klay too, he's gonna end with 3-4 titles minimum, have the 2nd best 3 point stats ever, great defender....he's at least the player Worthy was.

Draymond: the only knock is not enough points. Well Rodman is in and he wasn't even close to the same offensive player (assists, points). Dray is averaging 12/11/9 in the playoffs, the only others to do that for a minimum of 8 playoff games in one playoffs? Wilt, Oscar, Magic.

He's gonna have 3-4 rings at least too. Led the league in steals one year. DPOY. 3 time first team all defense.

And then his college career, which counts for the HOF, Big Ten player of the year etc etc. He's getting in.

Kerr is smoking too much bud if he thinks that boon is a HOF'er