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ESPN's Best/Worse Case for Iowa

iowajerms

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Our look at the best and worst possible outcomes for each Big Ten team (in alphabetical order) rolls on with the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Remember these are not actual game-by-game predictions, and we're having a little fun here while trying to illustrate the ceilings and floors of each team. Iowa, your case will now be heard.

Best Case

Yes, the Hawkeyes are frightfully young on the defensive line. Yes, they are replacing three starters on the offensive line. And, yes, the Iowa running back curse could mean that a school janitor is taking carries by the end of the season. Still, why are you still doubting Kirk Ferentz's ability to get the most out of his players? Ferentz has a standout senior quarterback in James Vandenberg, some promising receivers and tight ends and soild players in the back end of the defense. And a pretty good schedule to boot.

The Hawkeyes come out firing right away in Greg Davis' new offense, putting up 40 points against both Northern Illinois and rival Iowa State to give the young defensive front plenty of room to grow. They exact revenge on Minnesota in the Big Ten opener with an easy romp, going into the bye week at 5-0 and ranked in the Top 25. The week off gives them time to prepare an excellent game plan and beat Michigan State on the road, just as they did in 2009. In fact, it's starting to look a lot like '09 as Iowa then takes down Penn State at home, Northwestern and Indiana on the road and then Purdue at home for a 10-0 record. Fans fall in love with a team that plays an up-tempo offense and throws the ball all over the field.

The Hawkeyes are in the Top 5 heading into the Nov. 17 game against Michigan, where they suffer their first loss. But that's quickly forgotten the following Friday with a Heroes Game victory over Nebraska on Vandenberg's last-second touchdown pass to Keenan Davis. That clinches the Legends Division title, and a blowout win over Wisconsin brings home not just the Big Ten championship but the Heartland Trophy as well. Iowa goes on to the Rose Bowl.

Worst Case

Here's the difference between the 2012 Hawkeyes and the 2009 version: there's no Adrian Clayborn or Christian Ballard on the defensive line. Or, at least, there's no one mature enough to play like those guys yet. Iowa usually succeeds on the basis of strong play in the trenches and a powerful running game. Guess where the biggest questions are for this year's team?

The offense has Vandenberg, but he's missing Marvin McNutt. And Davis wasn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard in his final seasons at Texas. The Hawkeyes are upset in Week 1 at Soldier Field by a solid Northern Illinois team, and afterward Ferentz announces that starting running back Damon Bullock has been dismissed from the team. Iowa State makes it two in a row in Week 2; Ferentz announces the following Monday that new starting running back Barkley Hill has transferred. Iowa wins its next two but then loses its third straight Floyd of Rosedale game against Minnesota as MarQueis Gray runs wild. During the bye week, new starting tailback Greg Garmon is kidnapped by the Russian mafia. Michigan State blows out the Hawkeyes for the second straight year to send them to 2-4. The team rallies to beat Penn State at home but loses to its thorn in the side Northwestern on the road. Back-to-back wins over Indiana and Purdue are marred when A) new starting running back Jordan Canzieri, just back from an ACL injury, defects to Cuba and B) new starting running back Nate Meier is swept away by a tornado.

The season concludes with a three-touchdown loss at Michigan and a dispiriting four-touchdown loss to Nebraska in a half-red Kinnick Stadium. In the finale, new starting running back Todd Smith -- formerly a school janitor -- spontaneously combusts. Iowa finished 5-7 and misses a bowl for the first time since 2000.

Best Case/Worst Case: Iowa - Big Ten Blog - ESPN
 

iowajerms

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I just want to add that Bennett was wrong with the last statement. Iowa didn't go to a bowl game in 2007, after going 6-6 and losing to Western Michigan. 2000 season was the last time Iowa was not bowl eligible.
 

iowajerms

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Best Case

The Hawkeyes come out firing right away in Greg Davis' new offense, putting up 40 points against both Northern Illinois and rival Iowa State to give the young defensive front plenty of room to grow. They exact revenge on Minnesota in the Big Ten opener with an easy romp, going into the bye week at 5-0 and ranked in the Top 25. The week off gives them time to prepare an excellent game plan and beat Michigan State on the road, just as they did in 2009. In fact, it's starting to look a lot like '09 as Iowa then takes down Penn State at home, Northwestern and Indiana on the road and then Purdue at home for a 10-0 record. Fans fall in love with a team that plays an up-tempo offense and throws the ball all over the field.

I understand this is "Best Case", but Iowa doesn't play well off of bye weeks. If Iowa beats Iowa State, I can see them starting 5-0 and then 9-1.
 

herky

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5-0 going into East Lansing would be huge. The thing that scares me is playing teams with a pulse. I also can't make up my mind as to how we do this year. It depends on the day. I bounce around from 7-5 to 9-3. I just want it to start.
 

iowajerms

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Here's what I think

Best Case - 10-2

Like I said before, I don't see Iowa beating Michigan State after they have a bye week. If they do start off strong though (9-1), I think they would beat either Michigan or Nebraska (I would perfer the Huskers).

Worst Case - 4-8

Iowa starting off bad. Iowa overlooks Northern Illinois, causing an upset and then ISU beating Iowa. MarQueis Gray finds a way to keep the pig in Minnesota for the 3rd straight year and Northwestern continues to curse Iowa. Iowa will find a way to beat Northern Iowa, Central Michigan, Indiana, and Purdue, but Michigan State, Michigan, and Nebraska dominate Iowa.

My Prediction - 9-3

Northern Illinois will keep the game close for 3 quarters, but then Iowa takes over in the 4th. Iowa State will struggle stopping the pass for most of the game, but once they control it, ISU will find a way to win. Iowa's RB will struggle against ISU's LBs. Iowa won't have any problems with UNI or CMU. Whether Hill or Garmon starts, he will be starting to do good and Iowa will beat Minnesota by a TD. Iowa will lose to MSU after the bye week. Without Persa, Northwestern will lose to Iowa. Iowa will dominate Indiana. I also think Iowa will have the cohesiveness as a team by the time they reach Michigan and Nebraska that they will beat one of them, but lose to the other.
 

HawkeyesRuleURFace

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I just want to see the DLine make improvements each week the first 5 and become a manageable unit by the end of the year. We need to be able to keep the running game in check...if they can do that we have a chance at having a good year
 

herky

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The DL is young but I think that they have a chance to be very good. With Davis and Cooper eating up space in the middle, it'll give Kirksey and Morris a chance to run and make plays. It'll help that we have Hyde and Lowery providing great coverage.
 
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