Draft lottery

[Old Lion]

We really need a lottery in the NFL. Sick of seeing teams throw games at the end of the season. End of season games should mean the same as early season games. That Giants game was a joke.

I am thinking the 18 teams that dont make it get upwards or 9 tickets based on record and 4 more based on how many wins they got in the last 4 games. So it would go 1-1-2-2-3-3 and so on to 9-9.

 

[Battlelyon]

It's working out so well for the NBA

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I didn't see the game. What specifically was so horrendous

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Really don’t think a lottery stops (or even mitigates) tanking in the NFL. GM’s are already on a 1-strike and you’re out for a career in that position.

Are the Panthers supposed to have a protected pick for their epic fail this year?

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Lottery sucks. If the top teams fuck up their pick, that's on them.

 

[Edonidd]

Yeah that Lottery is working out so well for the Pistons. Where they were 'just' the worst team in the league last year but then after they got no help in the draft they can now set records as the worst team ever.

There's no "trust the process" in the NFL. The average career length in like 3 seasons. Positions like RB come into the league at 22 and are all the way washed up by 30. If they're all time greats. Many don't even last to 30.

Cooper Kupp was in the running for best player in the league 2-3 seasons ago. Definite short list of 2-3 best WR'S in the NFL. Now he's not even the best guy on his team and there's probably a minimum of 15 guys who are clearly better than him. Last couple years Travis Kelce was one of the best TE's in league history, and head and shoulder better than anyone playing currently. This year he's one of the best TE's playing currently. Next year he might be one of the TE's playing currently. It's over that fast.

Lottery is stupid in the NFL. And if any Coach or GM wants to blow one of his seasons then go ahead.

 

[broncosmitty]

I’m anti lottery.

 

[shopson67]

We really need a lottery in the NFL. Sick of seeing teams throw games at the end of the season. End of season games should mean the same as early season games. That Giants game was a joke.

I am thinking the 18 teams that dont make it get upwards or 9 tickets based on record and 4 more based on how many wins they got in the last 4 games. So it would go 1-1-2-2-3-3 and so on to 9-9.

The Giants did not not intentionally lose, they just choked. Players don't tank, just front offices.

Other teams near the top of the first (Patriots, Cardinals, Bears, even the Jets) have won games down the stretch and continue to play hard.

Simply no need for a lottery

 

[Jikkle]

Tanking simply isn't really a problem in the NFL as every coach and GM is on such a short leash they really can't afford to tank.

And it's not like the lottery stops teams from tanking because you're still incentivized to tank to get better odds at landing a better pick.

The lottery is only there to give leagues a way to drum up some interest in their drafts because they are nowhere near as popular as NFL drafts.

The other element is the NFL probably values parity more than other leagues do. They can drum up interest in all 32 of their teams because of the hope your team can be the next rags to riches story. And they can get interest in the worst teams in the league because that hyped QB that's supposed to be the next big thing went to an awful team so lets see how that QB is doing on his new team.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Lottery drafts are useless. The NBA and NHL do it because nobody really gives a shit about their draft so they try to do it to get viewers to care. Nobody in the NFL really tanks. It's mostly a myth. All the lower teams played hard last week. The Giants and Panthers just plain suck and aren't getting any better anyway.The Panthers traded all their draft stock away to draft Young and now they are looking at a longer rebuild and the Giants are just a poorly ran organization now. They have no talent and grossly overpaid for a below average QB.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Lottery drafts are useless. The NBA and NHL do it because nobody really gives a shit about their draft so they try to do it to get viewers to care. Nobody in the NFL really tanks. It's mostly a myth. All the lower teams played hard last week. The Giants and Panthers just plain suck and aren't getting any better anyway.The Panthers traded all their draft stock away to draft Young and now they are looking at a longer rebuild and the Giants are just a poorly ran organization now. They have no talent and grossly overpaid for a below average QB.

this is not why they do it in the NBA. In the NBA one player can change a team. the NFL has 50 plus spots and even an elite qb needs a lot of help.

In the NBA tanking is an actual issue. In the NFL it isn't

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

this is not why they do it in the NBA. In the NBA one player can change a team. the NFL has 50 plus spots and even an elite qb needs a lot of help.

In the NBA tanking is an actual issue. In the NFL it isn't

I'll give you the one player thing but the lottery doesn't change the tanking issue anyway, imo. It just creates a variable of unpredictability in the end result.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I'll give you the one player thing but the lottery doesn't change the tanking issue anyway, imo. It just creates a variable of unpredictability in the end result.

Not fully no. With the exception of players like Lebron and Wemby there is usually still some intrigue as to who is number one. Just more often than not a franchise changing guy is going to be top 5 to 10.

The science is a bit more exact in that way with basketball but also in that one guy has that much more impact.

An elite qb is damn close but even for a lock down prospect like Luck so many other factors come in to play. We've seen as many top guys come from outside the top 20 as within

 

[Jikkle]

this is not why they do it in the NBA. In the NBA one player can change a team. the NFL has 50 plus spots and even an elite qb needs a lot of help.

In the NBA tanking is an actual issue. In the NFL it isn't

I think Strangelove was making the same point as I was in that tanking isn't an issue in the NFL but is in other leagues, especially the NBA tanking is an issue but it's just that a draft lottery doesn't do anything to address tanking so the only purpose of having it is to give the league a night to make a spectacle out of the lottery process and add drama to the draft process.

Even with the lottery in place you still get better odds if you're the worst team and in the NBA's case one of the 3 worst teams. So it's not like teams are shrugging their shoulders and playing really hard because they aren't guaranteed draft position but tanking all the same to increase their odds of winning the lottery or at least getting as favorable draft positioning as possible.

The only way a lottery would prevent tanking is every team with a 1st round pick got the same exact odds making losing on purpose truly pointless.

 

[Stlducks]

Who is tanking? Cardinals just won a hard road game they could have easily thrown away, Bears are winning, Panthers don't even have a first round pick to tank.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I think Strangelove was making the same point as I was in that tanking isn't an issue in the NFL but is in other leagues, especially the NBA tanking is an issue but it's just that a draft lottery doesn't do anything to address tanking so the only purpose of having it is to give the league a night to make a spectacle out of the lottery process and add drama to the draft process.

Even with the lottery in place you still get better odds if you're the worst team and in the NBA's case one of the 3 worst teams. So it's not like teams are shrugging their shoulders and playing really hard because they aren't guaranteed draft position but tanking all the same to increase their odds of winning the lottery or at least getting as favorable draft positioning as possible.

The only way a lottery would prevent tanking is every team with a 1st round pick got the same exact odds making losing on purpose truly pointless.

it has absolutely nothing to do with making some spectacle. They do the lotto during the playoffs well before the draft. It is in place to affect tanking. The fact teams still tank does not change the stated purpose behind the lottery.

Also in the NBA there is much more of a problem with being perpetually mediocre than in the NFL for a myriad of reasons. Again because of team construct that comes with having a much smaller roster.

There is really no point in comparing the NBA and NFL structurally other than maybe in pointing out differences in hard and soft caps.

 

[eaglesnut]

it has absolutely nothing to do with making some spectacle. They do the lotto during the playoffs well before the draft. It is in place to affect tanking. The fact teams still tank does not change the stated purpose behind the lottery.

Holy fucking shit.

Yo yo yo the commissioner stated his purpose, homey. That's the end of it.

 

[belcherboy]

I hate the lottery system. It usually screws the teams that need the most help. Most teams that have the top pick usually become playoff teams. Here is the breakdown of the teams who have had the #1 picks over the past 10 years:

2023 - Panthers (from Bears)
2022 - Jags (playoff win since draft)
2021 - Jags (playoff win since draft)
2020 - Bengals (Super Bowl appearance since this draft)
2019 - Cardinals (playoff appearance since draft)
2018 - Browns (playoff win since draft)
2017 - Browns (playoff win since draft)
2016 - Rams (Super Bowl win since draft)
2015 - Buccaneers (Super Bowl win since draft)
2014 - Houston Texans
2013 - Chiefs (Multiple Super Bowl wins since draft)

It seems that having the #1 pick moves you in the direction of becoming a playoff team. I know people hate to see teams tank, but the system seems to work as intended. Teams don't tank for long, and often quickly become playoff teams.

 

[Old Lion]

I think Strangelove was making the same point as I was in that tanking isn't an issue in the NFL but is in other leagues, especially the NBA tanking is an issue but it's just that a draft lottery doesn't do anything to address tanking so the only purpose of having it is to give the league a night to make a spectacle out of the lottery process and add drama to the draft process.

Even with the lottery in place you still get better odds if you're the worst team and in the NBA's case one of the 3 worst teams. So it's not like teams are shrugging their shoulders and playing really hard because they aren't guaranteed draft position but tanking all the same to increase their odds of winning the lottery or at least getting as favorable draft positioning as possible.

The only way a lottery would prevent tanking is every team with a 1st round pick got the same exact odds making losing on purpose truly pointless.

It is still not worth tanking for just better odds. It is worth tanking when the pick is guaranteed.

 

[Old Lion]

I hate the lottery system. It usually screws the teams that need the most help. Most teams that have the top pick usually become playoff teams. Here is the breakdown of the teams who have had the #1 picks over the past 10 years:

2023 - Panthers (from Bears)
2022 - Jags (playoff win since draft)
2021 - Jags (playoff win since draft)
2020 - Bengals (Super Bowl appearance since this draft)
2019 - Cardinals (playoff appearance since draft)
2018 - Browns (playoff win since draft)
2017 - Browns (playoff win since draft)
2016 - Rams (Super Bowl win since draft)
2015 - Buccaneers (Super Bowl win since draft)
2014 - Houston Texans
2013 - Chiefs (Multiple Super Bowl wins since draft)

It seems that having the #1 pick moves you in the direction of becoming a playoff team. I know people hate to see teams tank, but the system seems to work as intended. Teams don't tank for long, and often quickly become playoff teams.

Kind of proves the point. Most of those teams are good now. It wont happen in 1 year but a number 1 or 2 pick can turn a team around in 2 or 3 years. It is not a guarantee but more often then not it is worth it.