Down on the Farm (2022)

[tzill]

Giants prospects in MLBPipeline's top 100 prospects:
No. 18 - Kyle Harrison
No. 22 - Marco Luciano

 

[Mays-Fan]

Fantasy Baseball: Top 100 prospects for 2023; rankings include Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Walker, Miguel Vargas

How many can you get on your Dynasty team?

www.cbssports.com

23. Marco Luciano, SS, Giants​

Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2022: Rookie, High-A
Minor-league stats: .269 BA (227 AB), 11 HR, .817 OPS, 26 BB, 58 K
One of these years, Luciano will need to back up his top prospect standing with numbers befitting it, but he continues to get a pass for now, in part because a back injury clearly impeded him last year. Most evaluators still view him as a middle-of-the-order power bat capable of delivering 30 homers annually, but he's fallen from seventh in last year's rankings.

27. Kyle Harrison, SP, Giants​

Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 4-3, 2.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 113 IP, 49 BB, 186 K
Harrison struck out nearly 40 percent of the hitters he faced last year but still struggled with walks, particularly after his move up to Double-A in late May. His rising fastball and sweeping slider are two of the pitches most in demand right now and have evaluators salivating over his potential. Even just minimal improvement would make him another Blake Snell, but there's a chance for so much more.

 

[tzill]

Keith Law just dropped his top 100:

Harry 12
Marco 21

I'm a little disappointed that there wasn't another prospect or two on the list.

Here's the write up on Marco:

21. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants​

Age: 21 | 6-2 | 178 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018

Last year’s ranking: 15

Luciano’s 2022 season in High A was a disappointment, as a lower back strain cost him about half of the year, and when he came back in mid-August he wasn’t the same hitter. He was off to a good start before the injury, hitting .288/.360/.507 before he hit the injured list, so there’s reason to remain optimistic about his long-term upside, where he projects to a plus hit tool with plus power if it all comes together. He even showed a solid approach and continued to keep his contact rate up, even after the injury. Luciano is a physical kid, listed at 6-2 and a laughable 178 pounds, even though he’s a lot bigger and stronger than that now, and he hits the ball extremely hard when he squares it up, giving him that elite offensive upside where he could hit .300 and still get to 30 homers. He’s still playing shortstop but that’s always been unlikely, and I think it’s becoming even less so as he moves up the ladder; he should move to third base or first, but there’s a decent chance he’s a corner outfielder. The bat will still play there, or anywhere, although the positional question creates a wide range in his expected outcomes. At third, he might be a top 5-10 player in baseball. In the outfield, he might just be a star.

With Schmitt at 3b, might we see Marco ticketed for 1b?

 

[Mays-Fan]

Keith Law just dropped his top 100:

Harry 12
Marco 21

I'm a little disappointed that there wasn't another prospect or two on the list.

Here's the write up on Marco:

21. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants​

Age: 21 | 6-2 | 178 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018

Last year’s ranking: 15

Luciano’s 2022 season in High A was a disappointment, as a lower back strain cost him about half of the year, and when he came back in mid-August he wasn’t the same hitter. He was off to a good start before the injury, hitting .288/.360/.507 before he hit the injured list, so there’s reason to remain optimistic about his long-term upside, where he projects to a plus hit tool with plus power if it all comes together. He even showed a solid approach and continued to keep his contact rate up, even after the injury. Luciano is a physical kid, listed at 6-2 and a laughable 178 pounds, even though he’s a lot bigger and stronger than that now, and he hits the ball extremely hard when he squares it up, giving him that elite offensive upside where he could hit .300 and still get to 30 homers. He’s still playing shortstop but that’s always been unlikely, and I think it’s becoming even less so as he moves up the ladder; he should move to third base or first, but there’s a decent chance he’s a corner outfielder. The bat will still play there, or anywhere, although the positional question creates a wide range in his expected outcomes. At third, he might be a top 5-10 player in baseball. In the outfield, he might just be a star.

With Schmitt at 3b, might we see Marco ticketed for 1b?

Agreed. I'm not complaining necessarily, but with 100 spots on these lists and 30 teams, the average would be 3 to 4 players per team. A little disappointing to only have 2, well ranked though they are.

 

[LHG]

Agreed. I'm not complaining necessarily, but with 100 spots on these lists and 30 teams, the average would be 3 to 4 players per team. A little disappointing to only have 2, well ranked though they are.

I do wonder why Casey Schmitt hasn't gotten any love, even at the lower end of the top 100 rankings for any list. He has a reputation of a glove man and he hit the snot out of the ball at 3 different levels. I would think he would be at least a top 80.

 

[calsnowskier]

Agreed. Surprised Schmitt is not ranked anywhere. Also Matos, even though he had a ROUGH year. He still ended the year very strong and is still super young.

 

[Mays-Fan]

He has a reputation of a glove man

OK, maybe I've got small sample sizes, but Schmitt committed 10 errors in 169 chances last year.

For comparison, at 3B last year, Wilmar Flores, whose nickname is not "Brooks", committed 4 errors in 68 chances, almost the same rate as KS (1:17).

Maybe KS has some impressive fielding highlights. Maybe the sample size is too small. But I wouldn't be engraving the GG Award with his name anytime soon.

 

[LHG]

OK, maybe I've got small sample sizes, but Schmitt committed 10 errors in 169 chances last year.

For comparison, at 3B last year, Wilmar Flores, whose nickname is not "Brooks", committed 4 errors in 68 chances, almost the same rate as KS (1:17).

Maybe KS has some impressive fielding highlights. Maybe the sample size is too small. But I wouldn't be engraving the GG Award with his name anytime soon.

Maybe the combination of a down year defensively and his questionable hitting, prior to 2022 (the rumors are that, when drafted, the question mark was his bat, not his glove), combined to make prospect watchers gun shy on ranking him top 100.

 

[calsnowskier]

OK, maybe I've got small sample sizes, but Schmitt committed 10 errors in 169 chances last year.

For comparison, at 3B last year, Wilmar Flores, whose nickname is not "Brooks", committed 4 errors in 68 chances, almost the same rate as KS (1:17).

Maybe KS has some impressive fielding highlights. Maybe the sample size is too small. But I wouldn't be engraving the GG Award with his name anytime soon.

I have seen/heard/read/whatever multiple reports that his defense is beyond impressive. He is MLB-ready with the glove right now. And SS is a possibility for him moving forward.

 

[LHG]

I have seen/heard/read/whatever multiple reports that his defense is beyond impressive. He is MLB-ready with the glove right now. And SS is a possibility for him moving forward.

Maybe the left side will be Luciano at 3rd and Schmitt at short by 2025.

 

[tzill]

Keith Law released his "ten guys who almost made the top 100" list today:

Luis Matos, OF, San Francisco Giants​

Age: 21 | 5-11 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018

Last year’s ranking: 55

Matos had a disastrous season all around, hitting .211/.275/.344 in 91 games in High A and missing time with a quad injury that lingered much of the summer, then scuffling in the AFL (.233/.280/.361) and looking like a shell of his old self. He’s still just 20 and tooled out, so it’s quite possible, even likely, that this is all a function of the injury and him never feeling 100 percent throughout the season. He didn’t give up on at-bats or start hacking, and his strikeout rate on the season was just 16 percent; he just didn’t hit the ball as hard as he did in 2021. He’s a plus power guy with plus defense in center when he’s 100 percent, with some concerns about his pitch recognition, but none of that was evident in 2022. I’m inclined to write it off as injury combined with perhaps some frustration that he wasn’t performing. He’ll play at 21 this year and even if the Giants return him to High A, he won’t be old for the level.

 

[calsnowskier]

Keith Law released his "ten guys who almost made the top 100" list today:

Luis Matos, OF, San Francisco Giants​

Age: 21 | 5-11 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018

Last year’s ranking: 55

Matos had a disastrous season all around, hitting .211/.275/.344 in 91 games in High A and missing time with a quad injury that lingered much of the summer, then scuffling in the AFL (.233/.280/.361) and looking like a shell of his old self. He’s still just 20 and tooled out, so it’s quite possible, even likely, that this is all a function of the injury and him never feeling 100 percent throughout the season. He didn’t give up on at-bats or start hacking, and his strikeout rate on the season was just 16 percent; he just didn’t hit the ball as hard as he did in 2021. He’s a plus power guy with plus defense in center when he’s 100 percent, with some concerns about his pitch recognition, but none of that was evident in 2022. I’m inclined to write it off as injury combined with perhaps some frustration that he wasn’t performing. He’ll play at 21 this year and even if the Giants return him to High A, he won’t be old for the level.

The radio silence on Schmitt is more than puzzling at this point.

 

[Mays-Fan]

The radio silence on Schmitt is more than puzzling at this point.

I don't understand your puzzlement. His bat is pretty good, not great, and as I've pointed out, his glove is something less than stellar, perhaps a lot less - at this point.

Facts are what they are, not what one wants them to be. Stories of his fielding prowess are simply "anec-data".

I hope he continues to show promise, that he proves me wrong, and that he becomes the next Scott Rolen.

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't understand your puzzlement. His bat is pretty good, not great, and as I've pointed out, his glove is something less than stellar, perhaps a lot less - at this point.

Facts are what they are, not what one wants them to be. Stories of his fielding prowess are simply "anec-data".

I hope he continues to show promise, that he proves me wrong, and that he becomes the next Scott Rolen.

I dont trust minor league defensive stats/metrics. More so, I don’t trust minor league errors. Hell, I hardly trust MAJOR league defensive stats/metrics (for example, Brandon Belt, by defensive metrics, was a defensive liability).

But I do tend to trust scouting reports when it comes to defense. And every report I have seen re: Schmitt says he is a SPECIAL defensive player.

And while his bat is still a question, he answered those questions in ‘22 by hitting exceptionally well at every level. I am not necessarily expecting a #3 or a #4 hitter, he may be a #2 or #6 hitter. I am thinking maybe Arenado with a bit less of a bat. If I KNEW there was a player in the draft who would develop into Arenado-lite, I think I would be perfectly OK taking him with a top pick (top 3-5).

 

[calsnowskier]

And to be clear…

I understand Matos and Schmitt not being on top 100 lists. Schmitt doesn’t have the pedigree to defend his meteoric rise over the last year or so and Matos had an epically bad ‘22. But I also believe they should both be AT LEAST in discussion to be on the lower parts of top 100 lists and should always make HM lists.

Matos made the HM on Law’s list. I am OK with that.

I just think that Schmitt’s omission is an oversight by the national media. It may be that they are looking at thousands of players and don’t have the time to read all the scouting reports, so Schmitt’s (apparent) elite defense isnt making it into their calculus. Or maybe it is a bias towards the Giants ability to develop their prospects. Or maybe they know what they are talking about and I am totally talking out of my ass.

I think all those theories are legit possibilities.

 

[tzill]

I don't understand your puzzlement. His bat is pretty good, not great, and as I've pointed out, his glove is something less than stellar, perhaps a lot less - at this point.

Facts are what they are, not what one wants them to be. Stories of his fielding prowess are simply "anec-data".

I hope he continues to show promise, that he proves me wrong, and that he becomes the next Scott Rolen.

Everything I've read is that he has an outstanding glove, so I guess that's where the puzzlement lays.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Everything I've read is that he has an outstanding glove, so I guess that's where the puzzlement lays.

See my post #487. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[tzill]

See my post #487. Hope I'm wrong.

I read that. I'd go with scouts over SSS stats at this point though.

 

[calsnowskier]

I read that. I'd go with scouts over SSS stats at this point though.

Particularly defensive stats. Which are accumulated by people who have no idea what they are doing or by fans who won drawings.

 

[calsnowskier]

2023 thread…

Down on the Farm (2023)

Just starting a fresh thread for the ‘23 season… 2022 thread Fangraphs released their top 100 (112, actually). #26 Kyle Harrison #97 Marco Luciano (#97!!!!) They seem to be very concerned with his back issues. Backs can be a bitch. Joe Panik is my go to example of how a back can completely...

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