Deshaun Watson would consider D.C.

[j_y19]

The cost to do business in the NFL these days:

NFL's highest-paid quarterbacks​

Rank	Player	Average annual value
1	Aaron Rodgers	$50.3 million
2	Deshaun Watson	$46 million
3	Patrick Mahomes	$45 million
4	Josh Allen	$43 million
5	Dak Prescott	$40 million
6	Russell Wilson	$35 million
7	Jared Goff	$33.5 million
8	Kirk Cousins	$33 million
9	Carson Wentz	$32 million
10	Matt Ryan	$30 million

Oh, there is no doubt where this current strategy is headed. I maintain that long term, this business model will not work. And I’m specifically speaking about the owners ability to control their costs. Which is right behind winning for most owners in terms of importance. there just aren’t enough really good QBs that can carry a team around to support this model. In fact, I bet we start to see a shift in the next couple of years. We may already be seeing signs of the young, relatively cheap (owners love both of those things) QBs showing signs of early sucess. These such teams need to be studied to see what they have done differently to prepare their teams for their eventual shot at a good, young prospect. Because, it’s becoming clear that just paying one position and hoping you got the right one, is proving to be both expensive and losing. Something owners abhor.

 

[Stymietee]

This Is How Far NFL Teams Will Go in Chasing a QB
There will be a lot of takes in the coming days over the seismic Deshaun Watson trade. Here’s one …
Sports Illustrated · 2h

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Oh, there is no doubt where this current strategy is headed. I maintain that long term, this business model will not work. And I’m specifically speaking about the owners ability to control their costs. Which is right behind winning for most owners in terms of importance. there just aren’t enough really good QBs that can carry a team around to support this model. In fact, I bet we start to see a shift in the next couple of years. We may already be seeing signs of the young, relatively cheap (owners love both of those things) QBs showing signs of early sucess. These such teams need to be studied to see what they have done differently to prepare their teams for their eventual shot at a good, young prospect. Because, it’s becoming clear that just paying one position and hoping you got the right one, is proving to be both expensive and losing. Something owners abhor.

You make some good points. I'm gonna go all Alpha Nerd for a minute...

Look at my Niners. They paid Jimmy a top QB deal. Within 2 years, he was barely top 10 in terms of AAV. Well, since then, the FO saw enough of him to know that he simply wasn't going to be worth the contract he was on, let alone the 2nd contract raise he was set to get at 30-35M/yr. That same determination is what made the seahawks move Wilson.

So, My Niner team had the option of trading for a vet QB (and paying him a fortune) or moving up from our 12th overall pick to get a QB who would be on his cheap rookie deal for 5 years (and hopefully play at least as well as Jimmy)....and after GB refused to trade us Rodgers and Watson was gonna be out for the year, the FO chose to go with the "QB on his rookie deal" pathway.

Based on the last 20-25 years--a team's best chance at a SB win is to do it on a QB's rookie deal or trade for an established PB-level QB,. Throwing out Brady as an outier, and he trades for P.Manning and Stafford, you'll see that SB-winning teams drafted their QB--like Mahomes, Wilson, Wilson, Flacco, Eli, Foles, etc.--and very few of those teams managed to win (or even make) a SB with their QB on their 2nd contract, but those who did so, did it in the first year after the extension (GB in year 1, NYG in year 1, etc.).

Basically, a team's best chance is to trade for a PB-level QB or else draft a QB and win the SB within his 1st 5 or 6 years. B/c the chances of the team winning a SB with that same QB after that period falls off a cliff after that...

 

[Stymietee]

You make some good points. I'm gonna go all Alpha Nerd for a minute...

Look at my Niners. They paid Jimmy a top QB deal. Within 2 years, he was barely top 10 in terms of AAV. Well, since then, the FO saw enough of him to know that he simply wasn't going to be worth the contract he was on, let alone the 2nd contract raise he was set to get at 30-35M/yr. That same determination is what made the seahawks move Wilson.

So, My Niner team had the option of trading for a vet QB (and paying him a fortune) or moving up from our 12th overall pick to get a QB who would be on his cheap rookie deal for 5 years (and hopefully play at least as well as Jimmy)....and after GB refused to trade us Rodgers and Watson was gonna be out for the year, the FO chose to go with the "QB on his rookie deal" pathway.

Based on the last 20-25 years--a team's best chance at a SB win is to do it on a QB's rookie deal or trade for an established PB-level QB,. Throwing out Brady as an outier, and he trades for P.Manning and Stafford, you'll see that SB-winning teams drafted their QB--like Mahomes, Wilson, Wilson, Flacco, Eli, Foles, etc.--and very few of those teams managed to win (or even make) a SB with their QB on their 2nd contract, but those who did so, did it in the first year after the extension (GB in year 1, NYG in year 1, etc.).

Basically, a team's best chance is to trade for a PB-level QB or else draft a QB and win the SB within his 1st 5 or 6 years. B/c the chances of the team winning a SB with that same QB after that period falls off a cliff after that...

Oh, there is no doubt where this current strategy is headed. I maintain that long term, this business model will not work. And I’m specifically speaking about the owners ability to control their costs. Which is right behind winning for most owners in terms of importance. there just aren’t enough really good QBs that can carry a team around to support this model. In fact, I bet we start to see a shift in the next couple of years. We may already be seeing signs of the young, relatively cheap (owners love both of those things) QBs showing signs of early sucess. These such teams need to be studied to see what they have done differently to prepare their teams for their eventual shot at a good, young prospect. Because, it’s becoming clear that just paying one position and hoping you got the right one, is proving to be both expensive and losing. Something owners abhor.

There's another way to avert the coming monied disaster on the horizon. Expansion!

Is it possible or likely that the NFL expands beyond the U.S. borders? Here are a couple of articles that make that suggestion.

Favorite Cities for the Next NFL Expansion Team ...​

Favorite Cities for the Next NFL Expansion Team - WOLFGANGSPORT

Fans in cities without an NFL franchise can only dream that a new team will...

www.wolfgangsport.com

https://www.bing.com/search?q=Place...69i57.17671j0j1&pglt=171&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=U531#

NFL Expansion: Cities That Should Have a Pro Football Team ...​

https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/cities-that-should...

https://www.bing.com/search?q=Place...69i57.17671j0j1&pglt=171&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=U531#

 

[DJ]

This deal makes it easier for me to swallow the Wentz deal

Sure but there's a huge talent gap between Watson and Wentz.

 

[Rowdy]

Sure but there's a huge talent gap between Watson and Wentz.

There’s a huge chunk of money and picks as well

 

[j_y19]

There's another way to avert the coming monied disaster on the horizon. Expansion!

Is it possible or likely that the NFL expands beyond the U.S. borders? Here are a couple of articles that make that suggestion.

Favorite Cities for the Next NFL Expansion Team ...​

Favorite Cities for the Next NFL Expansion Team - WOLFGANGSPORT

Fans in cities without an NFL franchise can only dream that a new team will...

www.wolfgangsport.com

Places where the NFL could expand - Search

NFL Expansion: Cities That Should Have a Pro Football Team ...​

https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/cities-that-should...

Places where the NFL could expand - Search

In my opinion, expansion will on exasperate the problem. As I stated, the real problem is there just aren’t enough really good QBs out there that can carry a team. If you increase the demand for the shortage on QBs, then the cost of all QBs only gets worse.

 

[Stymietee]

In my opinion, expansion will on exasperate the problem. As I stated, the real problem is there just aren’t enough really good QBs out there that can carry a team. If you increase the demand for the shortage on QBs, then the cost of all QBs only gets worse.

Apologies, I was focused on rising costs, not the availability of QBs.

OTOH, wouldn't there also be an increased number of high-level QBs due to that increase in participating number of countries?

 

[j_y19]

Apologies, I was focused on rising costs, not the availability of QBs.

OTOH, wouldn't there also be an increased number of high-level QBs due to that increase in participating number of countries?

In theory I guess. But that would require other countries youth to adopt the sport and begin the development of youth organizations, coaches, etc to have any real impact. So, in the next decade, it won’t make any appreciable difference. Again, just my humble opinion.

 

[Breed]

If that 1.6% number is accurate. Than its staggering, sadly and terribly staggering.

Anyone trading for Deshaun Watson hasn't done their due diligence - Sports Illustrated

And why you should not believe it...

www.si.com

But you don’t have to be ignorant, because Melissa Morabito did some due diligence for you. Wasn’t that nice of her? Morabito is an associate professor in the University of Massachusetts-Lowell School of Criminology and Justice Studies and co-author of a U.S. Department of Justice-funded study of decision-making and attrition in sexual-assault cases.

The study covers 3,269 cases over a three-year period across six states. Only 1.6% of cases where sexual assault was reported to police ever made it to court. Morabito says the chances of Watson facing a jury trial were probably lower, because most of the accusations by the 22 women involve forcible fondling as opposed to direct penetration or r*pe, though at least one woman accused him of forcing her to perform oral sex. As Ann Burdges, a former police detective who is now president of End Violence Against Women International, says, these kinds of acts can be, “scripted by an offender in a setting of which there is isolation, control, and two people.”

A Massage Therapist Tells Her Story of Deshaun Watson’s Behavior

Mary is a massage therapist who says she was subjected to Watson’s inappropriate behavior. She hasn’t filed suit, but she wants her story told.

www.si.com

 

[skinsdad62]

If that 1.6% number is accurate. Than its staggering, sadly and terribly staggering.

Anyone trading for Deshaun Watson hasn't done their due diligence - Sports Illustrated

And why you should not believe it...

www.si.com

But you don’t have to be ignorant, because Melissa Morabito did some due diligence for you. Wasn’t that nice of her? Morabito is an associate professor in the University of Massachusetts-Lowell School of Criminology and Justice Studies and co-author of a U.S. Department of Justice-funded study of decision-making and attrition in sexual-assault cases.

The study covers 3,269 cases over a three-year period across six states. Only 1.6% of cases where sexual assault was reported to police ever made it to court. Morabito says the chances of Watson facing a jury trial were probably lower, because most of the accusations by the 22 women involve forcible fondling as opposed to direct penetration or r*pe, though at least one woman accused him of forcing her to perform oral sex. As Ann Burdges, a former police detective who is now president of End Violence Against Women International, says, these kinds of acts can be, “scripted by an offender in a setting of which there is isolation, control, and two people.”

A Massage Therapist Tells Her Story of Deshaun Watson’s Behavior

Mary is a massage therapist who says she was subjected to Watson’s inappropriate behavior. She hasn’t filed suit, but she wants her story told.

www.si.com

for a couple of wins people overlook that shit .he is innocent till proven guilty no matter how bad it looks , if he is guilty and people still overlook that because of entertainment value then it doesnt speak well of our society . that behavior isnt a "mistake " thats a trend and the beginnings of something much more serious

now if he is innocent then the opposite is true and just a sad . taking advantage of a guy for money

 

[Breed]

for a couple of wins people overlook that shit .he is innocent till proven guilty no matter how bad it looks , if he is guilty and people still overlook that because of entertainment value then it doesnt speak well of our society . that behavior isnt a "mistake " thats a trend and the beginnings of something much more serious

now if he is innocent then the opposite is true and just a sad . taking advantage of a guy for money

Watson represents more than a couple wins to some people. He's the missing piece to that SB puzzle, but I get your point.

Can't say I agree completely with the innocent till proven guilty view. Regardless if he's innocent or guilty that percentage of cases that make it to court if a police report filed is beyond fucked up if accurate. On the other-hand maybe it shouldn't be as much a surprise as it seems. Not with all the shit that has come out in LA and NY with Hollywood peeps and multiple cases at news networks etc. I've even criticized some women over these issues. when the reality is. I have fuckin idea what a woman goes through in that situation, but damn, the law n the courts don't seem to help them out much if that percentage is accurate.

 

[skinsdad62]

Watson represents more than a couple wins to some people. He's the missing piece to that SB puzzle, but I get your point.

Can't say I agree completely with the innocent till proven guilty view. Regardless if he's innocent or guilty that percentage of cases that make it to court if a police report filed is beyond fucked up if accurate. On the other-hand maybe it shouldn't be as much a surprise as it seems. Not with all the shit that has come out in LA and NY with Hollywood peeps and multiple cases at news networks etc. I've even criticized some women over these issues. when the reality is. I have fuckin idea what a woman goes through in that situation, but damn, the law n the courts don't seem to help them out much if that percentage is accurate.

you are 100% right with the exception of innocent till proven guilty . govt could crush you without that right if its in the wrong hands

 

[Breed]

you are 100% right with the exception of innocent till proven guilty . govt could crush you without that right if its in the wrong hands

Oh no question about the possibility of being crushed by Gov't even if you're innocent. Hell, they'll make you a patsy to the shit they done. It could just be your miserable luck or you pissed off the wrong person. Not in a criminal way, but in a way they feel some get back is necessary. Or it can be a money thing. That kid in LA that killed a women street racing in a lambo doing 100+ mph on a downtown street. He had no DL cuz they took that the last time he was caught street racing. Poor woman was burned alive in part. They gave that bastard a slap on the wrist 5 months at some boot camp.

 

[Breed]

I do find some of the reasoning for why it wasn't a good idea to try and acquire Watson, I dunno, weak. Don't wanna give up multiple high end draft picks. Why not? Washington hasn't made a half ass decent 1st rd pk in what? 9 years? RK was the last 1st rd pk that is/was a really good one could opine great 1st rd pk . Shockingly that made 2 in a row as they drafted another consensus winner in Trent Williams in 2010. Since then what have they done in the 1st rd or the 2nd rd? In 5 years the Browns could have a SB title n 2 of 3 1st rd pk for the Commanders will be on other teams with the 3rd one having 1 foot out the door.

The he hasn't played in a year ratinale is even weaker than that. That's a year where he suffered no injuries or even bumps n bruises. He's freash as new money. It might take a minute for his timing to come back, but he's 26 not 46. A bigger issue than he lost it will be acclimating to a new offense n scheme. But with Cleveland's OL and what could be a 3 headed monster that is Chubb, Johnson n Hunt should and will benefit Watson greatly.

If Wince is worth 3 wins, Watson should be good for double that. Nah there was really only 2 valid reasons Washington shouldn't have traded for Watson. That being cuz they're Washington n will find a way to fuck it up. Or because of his off the field issues

 

[Niner Outlaw]

If that 1.6% number is accurate. Than its staggering, sadly and terribly staggering.

Anyone trading for Deshaun Watson hasn't done their due diligence - Sports Illustrated

And why you should not believe it...

www.si.com

But you don’t have to be ignorant, because Melissa Morabito did some due diligence for you. Wasn’t that nice of her? Morabito is an associate professor in the University of Massachusetts-Lowell School of Criminology and Justice Studies and co-author of a U.S. Department of Justice-funded study of decision-making and attrition in sexual-assault cases.

The study covers 3,269 cases over a three-year period across six states. Only 1.6% of cases where sexual assault was reported to police ever made it to court. Morabito says the chances of Watson facing a jury trial were probably lower, because most of the accusations by the 22 women involve forcible fondling as opposed to direct penetration or r*pe, though at least one woman accused him of forcing her to perform oral sex. As Ann Burdges, a former police detective who is now president of End Violence Against Women International, says, these kinds of acts can be, “scripted by an offender in a setting of which there is isolation, control, and two people.”

A Massage Therapist Tells Her Story of Deshaun Watson’s Behavior

Mary is a massage therapist who says she was subjected to Watson’s inappropriate behavior. She hasn’t filed suit, but she wants her story told.

www.si.com

Even if that number is correct (and I'm not questioning it), it is some spin meant to use a misunderstanding of the criminal justice system.

The vast majority of reported crimes--ANY type of crime--never make it to a jury trial. It's b/c the majority of cases reach a plea bargain.

 

[wilwhite]

Apologies, I was focused on rising costs, not the availability of QBs.

OTOH, wouldn't there also be an increased number of high-level QBs due to that increase in participating number of countries?

That'll take 20 years, if it ever happens.

 

[wilwhite]

for a couple of wins people overlook that shit .he is innocent till proven guilty no matter how bad it looks , if he is guilty and people still overlook that because of entertainment value then it doesnt speak well of our society . that behavior isnt a "mistake " thats a trend and the beginnings of something much more serious

now if he is innocent then the opposite is true and just a sad . taking advantage of a guy for money

Notice that OJ was not proven guilty of a crime, but was found to be responsible for those deaths in civil court. "Presumed innocent until proven guilty" is only about which side has the burden of proof in a criminal prosecution, not a social standard.

I have to assume that the Browns contract makes Watson's guaranteed money evaporate if he gets into a similar situation going forward. If not, they're morons.

 

[Breed]

Even if that number is correct (and I'm not questioning it), it is some spin meant to use a misunderstanding of the criminal justice system.

The vast majority of reported crimes--ANY type of crime--never make it to a jury trial. It's b/c the majority of cases reach a plea bargain.

Word. That makea sense. That why I preference shit like that with an if. This practice is so rampant now. I'd wager people don't even realize their posting lies anymore. Truth has really taken a hit in the last 20 years, but the last 10 or so years have just been brutal.

Good lookin out, Niner.

 

[Stymietee]

That'll take 20 years, if it ever happens.

Really? aren't you assuming a lot in this response? Beyond the money, (that's a given, in order to have the expansion) consider these perspectives among others...

1. Isn't it likely that there are people in other places who enjoy American football and as such are already emulating their players in manner and style?
2. You must believe that other places are talentless and it will take 20 years to get up to speed.

3. Money and how attractive it would be in luring already established veteran QBs to play where the money is best.

4. The NFL draft, expansion clubs would instantly be eligible to draft QBs out of schools here, so it's conceivable that one or more of these new teams would get lucky or be in the right drafting position to get their guy.

I am curious though... why do you believe that it will take 20 years?