Cousins' value

[Yu Lee - A Nova Lover]

This thread has been quite a surprise.

I expected a lot more West Virginians, Kentuckians, Tennesseans,
and Alabamians participating in this cousins thread.

 

[skinsdad62]

It seems like people ITT are way off base on the value of Cousins.

As far as anyone knows, he generated virtually zero serious interest last off season. Of course, we aren't privy to every private conversation that takes place league-wide, but if someone offered a single 1st rounder for Cousins, he wouldn't be in a 'Skins uniform.

No chance any competent GM would pass on that much equity (turning a 4th rounder into a 1st rounder in exchange for a backup) in order to win more games (than with Rex) this season in the scenario that RG3 can't go. That's absurdly short-sighted to operate that way, ergo no one offered anything substantial for Cousins.

More importantly, 3/32 projected starting QBs this year were 4th round or later draft picks. Brady, Romo and Flynn. The odds are forever not in Cousins' favor, which is why I'm confused as to why people assume Cousins is starting-caliber good. We view Cousins through the prism of 48 throws in his NFL career. How anyone can make a definitive assessment either way is truly baffling.

he wasnt put on the market this offseason . this is all future speculation

 

[skinsdad62]

Things not to do in life: Piss off dad. Feel kinda bad for JDM

that is the ex army in me . i just want to expose him as a BS'r

 

[JDM]

nice try . but no cigar

there is no statistical difference in either style of qb

RG3 ran 120 times last season of which 61 were designed runs , or about 8 times a game if you count designed runs its 4 times a game .

oh wait that is the base they used for the study

Wrong. It counted all rushing attempts, not designed ones.

here are the facts JDM 1st you said mobile qbs are more prone to injury . i put out that RC stewart , young tarkenton and vick were running qbs and played for 10 years or more

The only one who actually relied on the run was Vick, who has missed substantial time due to injury. It doesn't matter how long you are in the league if you aren't on the field when you're there.

you said that they were pass 1st . i submitted video proof debunking your claim .

I could find video of Tom Brady running. Being able to run != relying on it.

then i asked for you to back up your claim several times with stats .

your response was there wasnt any and you would let my BS slide

then i asked you to tell me if cam newton , locker , wilson , kaep or Rg3 had gotten hurt by a designed run last season , your response was what ? nothing but gibberish and dodging . i supplied you the answer

Once again, I responded with selection bias. If you hand select a group to "study", your study will prove exactly what you want it to.

then i asked you again for some stats . you came back with "you and i both know there isnt any "

i went and researched it and came back with the proof you said wasnt out there and now you want to debunk that because i again proved you wrong

You found stats from an unreliable source. Regardless of reliability, these stats are misleading and I addressed why.

we get it anyone following this conversation knows your only response is "common knowledge " which is a myth .

Myth or not, you denied that it was common knowledge, when the article you cited perfectly admitted as much.

they also know you dont know anything about the mobile qbs i mentioned no one would ever call kordell stewart a "pass 1st " qb

they also know that i have come back with video evidence , stats and a link debunking your claim about pocket passers

they also know that RG3 wasnt hurt on any designed run

now JDM common knowledge wont fly on this board . us ex espn'ers will chew you up and spit you out if you cant bring facts to the table

When reliable statistics don't exist, almost unanimous agreement around the league is evidence in itself.

the real reason you are here is to trollor give skins fans a hard time about Rg3

now i dont have any more time for your BS . i have proven our point many times over

i suggest you go back to the pats board and chat about patriot issues and leave Rg3 to the people who know what they are talking about

I have said time and time again RG3 will be elite. I am not sure how you can ignore that and pretend I am trolling or hate the guy.


And with that, we are going in circles. I will not respond to you recycling the same claims over and over again.

 

[JDM]

You continue to miss the point. In the pocket, planned run, scramble, etc. It doesn't matter. If RG3 does not learn to avoid the big hit, run out of bounds, slide, etc - his career will be shortened considerably. This falls on him - not the coach. You continually fail to see this point & in the process absolve RG3 of all blame. I don't see planned runs as an issue as long as they don't go overboard (& I have no doubt that they will cut down on this considerably).

You appear to be more interested in assigning blame to the Shanahans rather than addressing the issue. Like I stated before - you really don't understand the overall situation since you are not a Redskins fan - just a troll trying to stir the pot.

He absolutely does. But when you are calling a designed run, you are telling him to run regardless of whether it is there, AKA forcing the ball down the defense's throats. That's not what you do with a guy who is one of the top 5 most valuable guys in the league right now.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

He absolutely does. But when you are calling a designed run, you are telling him to run regardless of whether it is there, AKA forcing the ball down the defense's throats. That's not what you do with a guy who is one of the top 5 most valuable guys in the league right now.

Lots of other QBs run the ball on designed run plays. The key is to minimize these plays as the Redskins are doing - RG3's runs went down as the season progressed & I expect the same moving forward. It does not mean that they have to completely eliminate it from the playback nor does it mean that this is the main reason for the injuries sustained last season. Non-issue.

 

[JDM]

Lots of other QBs run the ball on designed run plays. The key is to minimize these plays as the Redskins are doing - RG3's runs went down as the season progressed & I expect the same moving forward. It does not mean that they have to completely eliminate it from the playback nor does it mean that this is the main reason for the injuries sustained last season. Non-issue.

As they build an offense around him that is capable of doing so, it will be faded out more and more.

One designed run all season being awful was admittedly a stretch, but anything more than a quick draw or read option on an important third down conversion is an unneeded risk.

 

[Warpath]

I'd rather have him running on designed plays where he's protected by a blocking scheme than running when things break down and there's chaos. Chaos is when he's most likely to be injured.

And they won't stop using the Read Option until defenses start proving they can stop it.

 

[JDM]

What about when defenses start taking shots at him on the give?

 

[Warpath]

They'll risk that because he has more time in the pocket because of the threat of read option.

 

[gtn130]

he wasnt put on the market this offseason . this is all future speculation

What exactly entails being put on the market? Is there some secret official registry for players on the trading block?

It's possible that two GMs can have a discussion about a player who isn't publicly available you know...

 

[gtn130]

That is one way of looking at it. However - how about the fact that there don't appear to be any decent QBs (at least not yet) from the most recent draft. How about all of the failed or mediocre high round picks from the recent past (Sanchez, Ponder, Gabbert, etc). You simply mentioned 3 QBs - there is a lot more garbage around the league who certainly don't look better than Cousins right now.

I could think of at least 8 teams that would probably improve if Cousins were their QB right now (assuming that ankle injury is not serious). Did anyone offer a 1st or 2nd for him during the offseason? Possibly not. Still does not mean that someone could offer a fairly high pick for him in the near future. Also - it does not matter whether he will actually be good in the future - it is simply a matter if even a handful of GMs believe that he MIGHT be good. I am pretty confident that these people exist right now.

The thing is, I don't really claim to know either way if Cousins is going to be a good starting QB. We have seen him throw 48 times in his NFL career (discounting preseason), which is hardly enough.

We saw Matt Flynn throw for 480 yards and 6 TDs in a game in 2011, but there wasn't really any league-wide interest that was proportionate to that one game performance. It seems like a lot of 'Skins fans like to extrapolate from Cousins' one start sample and assume that his performance vs the Browns would be roughly the same over 16 games. If GMs did that with Matt Flynn, he'd have been given a max contract in the off season he signed with Seattle.

What I know is that the majority of Cousins' body of work dating back to college indicates that he's not a first or second round QB prospect, which greatly reduces the likelihood that he'll be a long-term starter in the NFL.

Point being that GMs invariably have a similar vantage point when considering A) he was a 4th rounder and B) No one came knocking this off season. I suppose that could change, but it doesn't seem like anyone with any clout is that certain that Cousins will be a good QB.

 

[j_y19]

The thing is, I don't really claim to know either way if Cousins is going to be a good starting QB. We have seen him throw 48 times in his NFL career (discounting preseason), which is hardly enough.

We saw Matt Flynn throw for 480 yards and 6 TDs in a game in 2011, but there wasn't really any league-wide interest that was proportionate to that one game performance. It seems like a lot of 'Skins fans like to extrapolate from Cousins' one start sample and assume that his performance vs the Browns would be roughly the same over 16 games. If GMs did that with Matt Flynn, he'd have been given a max contract in the off season he signed with Seattle.

What I know is that the majority of Cousins' body of work dating back to college indicates that he's not a first or second round QB prospect, which greatly reduces the likelihood that he'll be a long-term starter in the NFL.

Point being that GMs invariably have a similar vantage point when considering A) he was a 4th rounder and B) No one came knocking this off season. I suppose that could change, but it doesn't seem like anyone with any clout is that certain that Cousins will be a good QB.

I kinda get your point about the value of Cousins. I do take exception with the last paragraph, however. At this point, no GM cares what round he was drafted in, they care if the can play in the NFL based on what they have seen since he has been in the league. And we don't know if anyone showed any interest. This year, there was no way we were getting rid of him with RG3's health in question if we believe that he has NFL starter material.

I do agree that there just isn't enough tape on Cousins at this level yet to expect to get a 1st. But my guess is that after this season (I expect he will see more time), we will get a better feel. If he continues to play as well as he has to date when he has had opportunity then a 1st could be possible, but I still think it will be a 2nd and a 3rd or 4th.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

The thing is, I don't really claim to know either way if Cousins is going to be a good starting QB. We have seen him throw 48 times in his NFL career (discounting preseason), which is hardly enough.

We saw Matt Flynn throw for 480 yards and 6 TDs in a game in 2011, but there wasn't really any league-wide interest that was proportionate to that one game performance. It seems like a lot of 'Skins fans like to extrapolate from Cousins' one start sample and assume that his performance vs the Browns would be roughly the same over 16 games. If GMs did that with Matt Flynn, he'd have been given a max contract in the off season he signed with Seattle.

What I know is that the majority of Cousins' body of work dating back to college indicates that he's not a first or second round QB prospect, which greatly reduces the likelihood that he'll be a long-term starter in the NFL.

Point being that GMs invariably have a similar vantage point when considering A) he was a 4th rounder and B) No one came knocking this off season. I suppose that could change, but it doesn't seem like anyone with any clout is that certain that Cousins will be a good QB.

I have seen numerous analysts in the media claim that he is good enough to start elsewhere. Who knows how other GMs feel? They are not going to play their hand to the public. Neither you nor I nor most people know if any other teams had interest during the offseason & - as others have mentioned - why would they inquire when the Redskins basically stated that he was not on the trading block?

His past history is not the only indicator of future success or interest. His play both in preseason & under fire speak quite a bit about him. Yes - he only played in limited situations but in those situations he appeared to be pretty polished & poised. Do you really believe that no GMs have any interest in this guy? Agree to disagree.

 

[gtn130]

I kinda get your point about the value of Cousins. I do take exception with the last paragraph, however. At this point, no GM cares what round he was drafted in, they care if the can play in the NFL based on what they have seen since he has been in the league. And we don't know if anyone showed any interest. This year, there was no way we were getting rid of him with RG3's health in question if we believe that he has NFL starter material.

I do agree that there just isn't enough tape on Cousins at this level yet to expect to get a 1st. But my guess is that after this season (I expect he will see more time), we will get a better feel. If he continues to play as well as he has to date when he has had opportunity then a 1st could be possible, but I still think it will be a 2nd and a 3rd or 4th.

Well what I mean by him being a 4th round draft pick is the implications that come with it -- like if he was knocked for having a weak arm or for being inaccurate (I don't really know the finer details). Even if it turns out that Cousins is really good at other things, he'll still have those deficiencies, and when coupled with the fact that we've seen very little of him at this point to make a concrete judgement on him, those factors have to be taken into consideration by GMs.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

I kinda get your point about the value of Cousins. I do take exception with the last paragraph, however. At this point, no GM cares what round he was drafted in, they care if the can play in the NFL based on what they have seen since he has been in the league. And we don't know if anyone showed any interest. This year, there was no way we were getting rid of him with RG3's health in question if we believe that he has NFL starter material.

I do agree that there just isn't enough tape on Cousins at this level yet to expect to get a 1st. But my guess is that after this season (I expect he will see more time), we will get a better feel. If he continues to play as well as he has to date when he has had opportunity then a 1st could be possible, but I still think it will be a 2nd and a 3rd or 4th.

Good points. I am not advocating that the Skins would get a 1st rounder for him. However - barring getting a can't miss QB in next year's draft - you don't believe that a team like the Jags, Raiders, Cards, etc. would not consider trading a 2nd or 3rd rounder for a guy like this? Beats the heck out of obtaining some aging vet who has a much lower upside.

 

[j_y19]

Oh, there will be interest. Its just a matter of supply and demand. There just aren't 32 good QBs out there. QBs coming right out of college are almost all hit and miss. That's why when a young guy with a few years experience that has shown he can be successful garners the interest he does. We've seen it time and again and we will see it in the future. Cousins is the hot one right now, but some backup will get significant time this year on some team that may be the talk of the offseason. Who knows, maybe even Mallet, but I doubt it.

 

[gtn130]

I have seen numerous analysts in the media claim that he is good enough to start elsewhere. Who knows how other GMs feel? They are not going to play their hand to the public. Neither you nor I nor most people know if any other teams had interest during the offseason & - as others have mentioned - why would they inquire when the Redskins basically stated that he was not on the trading block?

His past history is not the only indicator of future success or interest. His play both in preseason & under fire speak quite a bit about him. Yes - he only played in limited situations but in those situations he appeared to be pretty polished & poised. Do you really believe that no GMs have any interest in this guy? Agree to disagree.

Nearly everyone is on the trading block. If someone came to the Redskins and offered three first rounders for Cousins this off season, would he still be here? Of course not. There hasn't been a lucrative offer for him, and if there was and we declined, well, we have much bigger issues.

I do believe there is SOME interest in Cousins. Actually, I'm sure of it, but it's outrageous to assume that he's worth even a first round pick or that he'll have sustained success as a starting QB in the future.

 

[JDM]

Good points. I am not advocating that the Skins would get a 1st rounder for him. However - barring getting a can't miss QB in next year's draft - you don't believe that a team like the Jags, Raiders, Cards, etc. would not consider trading a 2nd or 3rd rounder for a guy like this? Beats the heck out of obtaining some aging vet who has a much lower upside.

I don't think anyone is claiming he has no value.

Just that a first rounder is inflated and multiple firsts (which has been claimed more than once here) is absurd.

 

[gtn130]

Good points. I am not advocating that the Skins would get a 1st rounder for him. However - barring getting a can't miss QB in next year's draft - you don't believe that a team like the Jags, Raiders, Cards, etc. would not consider trading a 2nd or 3rd rounder for a guy like this? Beats the heck out of obtaining some aging vet who has a much lower upside.

No, I agree with this. I think it's definitely possible Cousins could be traded for a 2nd or 3rd rounder, but that's where I think the line will be drawn.