Cousins' value

[j_y19]

Who knows? Based on his body of work today, I would agree. If he plays 4 games this season and we go 3-1, a first is very possible.

 

[JDM]

Maybe, but that's not what was being claimed.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Well what I mean by him being a 4th round draft pick is the implications that come with it -- like if he was knocked for having a weak arm or for being inaccurate (I don't really know the finer details). Even if it turns out that Cousins is really good at other things, he'll still have those deficiencies, and when coupled with the fact that we've seen very little of him at this point to make a concrete judgement on him, those factors have to be taken into consideration by GMs.

Really? It perhaps could not simply be the fact that most NFL teams made a mistake by not selecting him earlier? Or perhaps that not all factors are important in the selection process? You can be a great QB without having all of the factors that are used to play the position (e.g. not everyone has to be mobile).

Why did Brady or Montana or Marino slip so much? Simply put - NFL GMs screwed up. Perhaps a few of them might at least consider that to be the case for Cousins & now be willing to give up more than a 4th round pick. Again - it only takes one trade partner to pull this off. Time will tell.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

I don't think anyone is claiming he has no value.

Just that a first rounder is inflated and multiple firsts (which has been claimed more than once here) is absurd.

I think any reasonable person understands that & that is all that I am claiming. I am taking exception to the fact that no other teams are interested & that he would not merit anything higher than a 4th round pick simply because that is where he was selected last offseason.

 

[j_y19]

Really? It perhaps could not simply be the fact that most NFL teams made a mistake by not selecting him earlier? Or perhaps that not all factors are important in the selection process? You can be a great QB without having all of the factors that are used to play the position (e.g. not everyone has to be mobile).

Why did Brady or Montana or Marino slip so much? Simply put - NFL GMs screwed up. Perhaps a few of them might at least consider that to be the case for Cousins & now be willing to give up more than a 4th round pick. Again - it only takes one trade partner to pull this off. Time will tell.

Or it could be a simple as it was a QB rich year (which it was) and all the teams that needed a QB grabbed on in R1 and R2. The reason Shanahan took him was because he said he was way undervalued and he couldn't believe he was still there in R4. Shanahan had him as a 2nd round value.

 

[gtn130]

I think any reasonable person understands that & that is all that I am claiming. I am taking exception to the fact that no other teams are interested & that he would not merit anything higher than a 4th round pick simply because that is where he was selected last offseason.

That is a straw man -- no one is making that argument.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

That is a straw man -- no one is making that argument.

OK - if you are maintaining that he could perhaps warrant as high as a 2nd round pick next offseason then we are basically in agreement. First round picks are hard to come by since 1.) they are worth so much more now due to the rookie cap & 2.) there is a good chance that a team needing a QB will have a relatively bad record & therefore be picking very high in the draft.

2nd or 3rd round pick could be very possible - who knows. Again - if I am the Jags & I don't view a QB from next year's draft worthy of a 1st rounder then why wouldn't I at least consider Cousins for a 2nd or 3rd rounder?

 

[gtn130]

Really? It perhaps could not simply be the fact that most NFL teams made a mistake by not selecting him earlier? Or perhaps that not all factors are important in the selection process? You can be a great QB without having all of the factors that are used to play the position (e.g. not everyone has to be mobile).

Why did Brady or Montana or Marino slip so much? Simply put - NFL GMs screwed up. Perhaps a few of them might at least consider that to be the case for Cousins & now be willing to give up more than a 4th round pick. Again - it only takes one trade partner to pull this off. Time will tell.

This isn't really true. You're misrepresenting how drafting works, big time. Guys who come out of nowhere are guys like Romo and Kurt Warner. They played for tiny, unheard of college teams where they were given minimal exposure.

GMs, scouts and talent evaluators aren't wrong on hard skills like arm strength or accuracy. They assess a prospect based on possible outcomes and the likelihood of each outcome. Example: the primary reason Andrew Luck was seen as the best prospect in years wasn't because he was the best at throwing the ball -- it was that he had the complete package, was really good at everything and didn't have any weaknesses. He was a can't-miss prospect because the likelihood was soooo high that he would be really good, and the possibility of him being a bust was extremely low.

GMs aren't going to suddenly change their mind on Cousins. They saw what they saw. The way Cousins will change the minds of GMs is by performing really well going forward. It's not as if GMs will start looking at Cousins' tape again and go, "oh we looked at this wrong. he can actually complete passes." They'll actually say, "Oh it looks like that unlikely path to success we saw for him is coming to fruition. It was unlikely, but it's happening."

 

[gtn130]

To add to that, someone like Aaron Rogers represents a major outlier. His arm actually got stronger after he was drafted. Had he, like almost all QB prospects, stayed roughly the same physically since he was drafted, it's possible he'd be not quite as good and more befitting of the 24th overall pick.

Point being that while the NFL draft is loaded with variance in terms of results, outcomes and career paths, the assessment of player strengths and weaknesses is much more of a science.

 

[skinz2winz]

Peter King thinks the Skins can get a 1st rounder for him

Also thinks he's better than Mallett

Or possibly a solid RT and later round pick.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

This isn't really true. You're misrepresenting how drafting works, big time. Guys who come out of nowhere are guys like Romo and Kurt Warner. They played for tiny, unheard of college teams where they were given minimal exposure.

GMs, scouts and talent evaluators aren't wrong on hard skills like arm strength or accuracy. They assess a prospect based on possible outcomes and the likelihood of each outcome. Example: the primary reason Andrew Luck was seen as the best prospect in years wasn't because he was the best at throwing the ball -- it was that he had the complete package, was really good at everything and didn't have any weaknesses. He was a can't-miss prospect because the likelihood was soooo high that he would be really good, and the possibility of him being a bust was extremely low.

GMs aren't going to suddenly change their mind on Cousins. They saw what they saw. The way Cousins will change the minds of GMs is by performing really well going forward. It's not as if GMs will start looking at Cousins' tape again and go, "oh we looked at this wrong. he can actually complete passes." They'll actually say, "Oh it looks like that unlikely path to success we saw for him is coming to fruition. It was unlikely, but it's happening."

Disagree. Excuse me but did Cousins come from a small school? Nope. How about Brady? How about Marino or Montana? All of them played for big time NCAA programs. Also - you cannot gauge a QB strictly on skills or combines. There is much more to it. And yes - GMs will change their minds based on seeing him play in an actual NFL offense not to mention there is a fraternity among coaches & word would get around that the guy can play.

Since you are so stubborn on this one please rate the following QBs in order;

Gabbert
Ponder
Tannehill
Weeden
Cousins

There is no way that I am going to that it is 100% certain that Cousins is the worst of that lot & all of the rest are 1st round picks. And - again - all of them came from big time football programs. In your effort to prove your point you are way off base.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Or possibly a solid RT and later round pick.

Well - I guess that Peter King is much, much dumber than our two resident experts who keep making their point on this thread.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

GMs aren't going to suddenly change their mind on Cousins. They saw what they saw. The way Cousins will change the minds of GMs is by performing really well going forward. It's not as if GMs will start looking at Cousins' tape again and go, "oh we looked at this wrong. he can actually complete passes." They'll actually say, "Oh it looks like that unlikely path to success we saw for him is coming to fruition. It was unlikely, but it's happening."

You are making many assumptions with these statements that are not necessarily true. 1.) GMs change from year to year so the guy calling the shots next offseason is not always the same one who did this the previous year. 2.) During the draft it was simply a matter of whether to take or not take Cousins - which is not always the case. Some teams may have really wanted him but instead opted to focus on another position like O-line or linebacker - they may have regrets about their decision the next day.

3.) All teams had adequate scouting & know every aspect of Cousins - not always true as we witnessed in previous years when it was believed that the Skins had very poor scouting. & 4.) a lot of GMs are just not that good. It happens in all businesses - why not in the NFL? If you don't believe me then just recall the name of one Vinny Cerrato who made major personnel decisions for the Redskins & was really not qualified to run a Pee-wee team. A GM like that would be capable of both making the wrong initial choice & changing his mind within days with no good reason.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

To add to that, someone like Aaron Rogers represents a major outlier. His arm actually got stronger after he was drafted. Had he, like almost all QB prospects, stayed roughly the same physically since he was drafted, it's possible he'd be not quite as good and more befitting of the 24th overall pick.

Point being that while the NFL draft is loaded with variance in terms of results, outcomes and career paths, the assessment of player strengths and weaknesses is much more of a science.

Sorry - not trying to pile on but these statements are also flawed. I don't care where Rodgers was picked - there is no way that Alex Smith would or will ever, ever be better than Rodgers (don't care if Smith worked out 12 hrs a day since there is much more to playing QB than practice & conditioning). The fact of the matter is that the 49ers blew it - big time. They were just fortunate that they went in another direction during the past several years. I don't believe that any 49ers fan would disagree with this.

Also - yes the assessments are often quite wrong. Do you recall a guy named Mike Mamola who was drafted very high by the Eagles several years ago? It was done since he had a great combine & subsequently he was a very average or below player. Teams use all types of criteria to draft guys & it is not as much of a science as you portray.

The draft is much more of a crapshoot than you might believe.

 

[skinsdad62]

What about when defenses start taking shots at him on the give?

its called a penalty flag you cant hit the qb just to hit him . even in the read option if he throws his hands up you cant hit him

 

[skinsdad62]

Wrong. It counted all rushing attempts, not designed ones.



The only one who actually relied on the run was Vick, who has missed substantial time due to injury. It doesn't matter how long you are in the league if you aren't on the field when you're there.



I could find video of Tom Brady running. Being able to run != relying on it.



Once again, I responded with selection bias. If you hand select a group to "study", your study will prove exactly what you want it to.




You found stats from an unreliable source. Regardless of reliability, these stats are misleading and I addressed why.



Myth or not, you denied that it was common knowledge, when the article you cited perfectly admitted as much.



When reliable statistics don't exist, almost unanimous agreement around the league is evidence in itself.




I have said time and time again RG3 will be elite. I am not sure how you can ignore that and pretend I am trolling or hate the guy.


And with that, we are going in circles. I will not respond to you recycling the same claims over and over again.

how much longer do we have to go over this ? do i have to go over every stinking run these guys made in their collective careers to prove it or can you just understand that NO ONE with a shred of football knowledge or history would claim kordell stewart was a pass 1st qb ?

that running was a major part of all of those qbs games ? no one and i mean no one would equate brady's style of play to RC or any of the other qbs i mentioned

the source had facts relevant to our discussion so your only defense is to trash the site ?

look everyone here who has read this debate KNOWS i am right and that your argument is based on here say and myths

we know what you are and what you are doing and feigning outrage wont cut it

 

[skinsdad62]

Disagree. Excuse me but did Cousins come from a small school? Nope. How about Brady? How about Marino or Montana? All of them played for big time NCAA programs. Also - you cannot gauge a QB strictly on skills or combines. There is much more to it. And yes - GMs will change their minds based on seeing him play in an actual NFL offense not to mention there is a fraternity among coaches & word would get around that the guy can play.

Since you are so stubborn on this one please rate the following QBs in order;

Gabbert
Ponder
Tannehill
Weeden
Cousins

There is no way that I am going to that it is 100% certain that Cousins is the worst of that lot & all of the rest are 1st round picks. And - again - all of them came from big time football programs. In your effort to prove your point you are way off base.

i smell trolling here

 

[gtn130]

Disagree. Excuse me but did Cousins come from a small school? Nope. How about Brady? How about Marino or Montana? All of them played for big time NCAA programs. Also - you cannot gauge a QB strictly on skills or combines. There is much more to it. And yes - GMs will change their minds based on seeing him play in an actual NFL offense not to mention there is a fraternity among coaches & word would get around that the guy can play.

Since you are so stubborn on this one please rate the following QBs in order;

Gabbert
Ponder
Tannehill
Weeden
Cousins

There is no way that I am going to that it is 100% certain that Cousins is the worst of that lot & all of the rest are 1st round picks. And - again - all of them came from big time football programs. In your effort to prove your point you are way off base.

Yeah I'm pretty sure you either didn't read my post or you don't understand what I'm saying.

 

[gtn130]

And SoCalWizFan, please stop with all the straw man arguments. Seriously, you're creating all these arguments that no one is making. I can't even begin to respond to all your posts because they're apropos of nothing.

 

[gtn130]

3.) All teams had adequate scouting & know every aspect of Cousins - not always true as we witnessed in previous years when it was believed that the Skins had very poor scouting.

Dude, you really think there was a single GM who knew little to nothing about Kirk Cousins? Even if there wasn't much draft hype around him (which there was), he started at QB for three years for a Big 10 school!!!!!!

It's virtually impossible that there were GMs who didn't have an opinion of Cousins during the draft. Impossible.