Cousins' value

[JDM]

Disagree. Excuse me but did Cousins come from a small school? Nope. How about Brady? How about Marino or Montana? All of them played for big time NCAA programs. Also - you cannot gauge a QB strictly on skills or combines. There is much more to it. And yes - GMs will change their minds based on seeing him play in an actual NFL offense not to mention there is a fraternity among coaches & word would get around that the guy can play.

Since you are so stubborn on this one please rate the following QBs in order;

Gabbert
Ponder
Tannehill
Weeden
Cousins

There is no way that I am going to that it is 100% certain that Cousins is the worst of that lot & all of the rest are 1st round picks. And - again - all of them came from big time football programs. In your effort to prove your point you are way off base.

Everyone laughed at every single one of those guys being drafted in the first round.

Not sure how that effects your point other than "people are stupid", but figured I'd throw it out there.

 

[JDM]

its called a penalty flag you cant hit the qb just to hit him . even in the read option if he throws his hands up you cant hit him

If he throws his hands up the play loses a lot of it's effectiveness. If following through and running out like you have the ball didn't help the play teams wouldn't do it.

 

[gtn130]

The draft is much more of a crapshoot than you might believe.

Again, you don't understand what I'm saying.

Yes, in terms of results, outcomes and career paths, the draft is rife with variance and involves a lot of luck. Everyone knows this. Nobody on the planet disagrees with this.

What I'm trying to explain to you is that GMs aren't grabbing player names out of a hat and hoping for the best. Yes, some GMs are better than others, but I think it's a fair assumption to say that at least someone on a GM's staff understands that drafting is a probabilistic exercise. When talent evaluators look at Cousins, they don't make simple, binary, black and white analyses. It's way more complicated than that, and there are a lot of factors to consider -- physical abilities, mental abilities, the system, the teammates around the prospect, etc etc. It becomes even more complicated at the QB position for obvious reasons.

To intimate that numerous GMs were a) flat out wrong b) lazy or c) both is pretty far off base. I am sure without a shadow of a doubt that plenty of GMs wouldn't be surprised by Cousins succeeding, but also still wouldn't have drafted him. Obviously GMs can be wrong all the time, but someone like Cousins was on NFL radars for three solid years playing on TV every Saturday. Everyone knew who Cousins was, and what his strengths and weaknesses were/are. He isn't coming out of nowhere and shocking people. That simply isn't the case.

 

[j_y19]

gtn, once again, I kinda agree with you. There is a scientific portion to evaluating a player. Speed, size, strength, mental acumen, etc can all be measured. However, this portion alone does not make a football player and why it is so tough to figure, especially at QB, who will be good and who wont. It has been proven time and again that many highly ranked QBs coming out of college don't pan out. Why? For a variety of reasons, but mainly because there are intangibles that are much more difficult to measure and is more of an art to figuring out than a science. Things like leadership, drive, heart, background, competitive nature, etc. Combine these things with the physical attributes that can be measured, and you have the difference between a winner and a guy that was drafted high but busts and is out of the league in a few years. Also, and this is important, who has the player played for, with, and against? Was he made better by his team and scheme? Did he play a patsy schedule every year (Ohio State for example)? These intangibles are graded by NFL scouts, but this is not science. There can be a wide variance in these grades by each team.

As for Cousins, your argument that he was a 4th round pick because that is where GMs evaluated him to be isn't necessarily true. He could fallen to the 4th for the simple reason that there were 5 other QBs that went ahead of him and the demand for the 6th just wasn't there for a higher pick. Not that he didn't have the talent, just simple supply and demand. As and example, would you contend that GMs still believe that Wilson is a 3rd round talent?

 

[j_y19]

If he throws his hands up the play loses a lot of it's effectiveness. If following through and running out like you have the ball didn't help the play teams wouldn't do it.

Once again, you don't know what you are talking about. RG3 was taught to throw his hands up after the 2nd game last year. He did it all season. It had no effect on the play because at that point the DE was already out of the play, Morris was 5 yards down the field through the hole the DE left when he went hard after RG3.

Seriously, why don't you just sit back and learn from those that watched RG3 and this offense for every play last year. You clearly don't know what you are talking about and schooling you is becoming tiresome.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Everyone laughed at every single one of those guys being drafted in the first round.

Not sure how that effects your point other than "people are stupid", but figured I'd throw it out there.

It reinforces my point in several ways. First of all it was implied that GMs screw up in the draft mainly since they don't account for guys from small schools (Romo, Warner, etc). These guys were mistakes from big time schools. Also - if GMs screw up by picking certain QBs too high wouldn't it stand to reason that they also screw up by selecting certain QBs (Brady, Marino & possibly Cousins) too low? Finally - I am mainly asking since I could certainly see GMs for these teams considering making a trade for Cousins in the future. May not ever happen, but it is certainly a possibility.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Again, you don't understand what I'm saying.

Yes, in terms of results, outcomes and career paths, the draft is rife with variance and involves a lot of luck. Everyone knows this. Nobody on the planet disagrees with this.

What I'm trying to explain to you is that GMs aren't grabbing player names out of a hat and hoping for the best. Yes, some GMs are better than others, but I think it's a fair assumption to say that at least someone on a GM's staff understands that drafting is a probabilistic exercise. When talent evaluators look at Cousins, they don't make simple, binary, black and white analyses. It's way more complicated than that, and there are a lot of factors to consider -- physical abilities, mental abilities, the system, the teammates around the prospect, etc etc. It becomes even more complicated at the QB position for obvious reasons.

To intimate that numerous GMs were a) flat out wrong b) lazy or c) both is pretty far off base. I am sure without a shadow of a doubt that plenty of GMs wouldn't be surprised by Cousins succeeding, but also still wouldn't have drafted him. Obviously GMs can be wrong all the time, but someone like Cousins was on NFL radars for three solid years playing on TV every Saturday. Everyone knew who Cousins was, and what his strengths and weaknesses were/are. He isn't coming out of nowhere and shocking people. That simply isn't the case.

Again - it doesn't require "numerous GMs" to be part of this process. It only takes one. There are certainly Cerrato types out there who will make moves that will make you scratch your head. Also - you again seem to imply that all teams have superior scouting & don't miss anything on any prospect at large schools. That is not necessarily true. Some of them may be seeing aspects of Cousins (or any player) for the first time & even if they saw things before it might seem more impressive against actual NFL talent.

Why do you find it so hard to believe that there are bad GMs in the NFL? There are bad people in every business in the world. There are also terrible NFL coaches so it would stand to reason that there are also bad personnel people. One other factor you are missing is the injury factor. If a certain team loses one or two QBs during the season or in the preseason they will quite possibly overpay for a QB like Cousins. Time will tell.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

And SoCalWizFan, please stop with all the straw man arguments. Seriously, you're creating all these arguments that no one is making. I can't even begin to respond to all your posts because they're apropos of nothing.

Chill out dude. First of all - I don't even know what you mean by straw man arguments. I certainly hope that you are not getting emotional with any of this - I am simply refuting your points since I believe that many of them are incorrect. Obviously - you feel different - no big deal.

Anyhow - let me make this simple. What exactly is your point? Put another way - what is the highest that you believe Cousins can command in trade value either right now or next offseason? I stated that he could command as much as a 2nd rounder now & perhaps more in the future. The fact that he was drafted in the 4th round is not the overwhelming factor no more than the fact that Ponder or Gabbert should command a 1st rounder in trade based on where they were taken.

Simple question that only requires a simple answer. Thanks.

 

[JDM]

It reinforces my point in several ways. First of all it was implied that GMs screw up in the draft mainly since they don't account for guys from small schools (Romo, Warner, etc). These guys were mistakes from big time schools. Also - if GMs screw up by picking certain QBs too high wouldn't it stand to reason that they also screw up by selecting certain QBs (Brady, Marino & possibly Cousins) too low? Finally - I am mainly asking since I could certainly see GMs for these teams considering making a trade for Cousins in the future. May not ever happen, but it is certainly a possibility.

They were desperate. That is why they reached for people everyone knew weren't first rounders. I don't think they were so far from the pack that they saw them as actual first round talent; they were just desperate. Does that desperation help you move cousins? Maybe, but unless multiply teams fight for him I don't think you have the leverage to demand a first.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

BTW dude - if you have been a Skins fan for any length of time you will realize that there are certainly bad GMs & bad personnel people in the NFL. You would also realize that success in the NFL is primarily driven by having a solid organization. It is no coincidence that some organizations have success for a long period of time. The end result at times is teams that make very poor choices in the draft & other teams that pull of steals in the draft. It is more than simply luck.

 

[JDM]

Also a straw man argument is when you make an argument that no one made for the sole purpose of tearing it apart. He is referring to you arguing against the claim that anyone thought cousins had no value at all, most likely, because no one said that.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

They were desperate. That is why they reached for people everyone knew weren't first rounders. I don't think they were so far from the pack that they saw them as actual first round talent; they were just desperate. Does that desperation help you move cousins? Maybe, but unless multiply teams fight for him I don't think you have the leverage to demand a first.

Again - I am not stating that he would command a first. Simply that he would perhaps be of interest to other teams and command a relatively high pick. BTW - that same desperation could surface again for another team especially if their starting QB gets hurt (thinking more of next season).

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Also a straw man argument is when you make an argument that no one made for the sole purpose of tearing it apart. He is referring to you arguing against the claim that anyone thought cousins had no value at all, most likely, because no one said that.

OK already. I made my point. Why do you camp on this board?

 

[j_y19]

If it were just a science on evaluating QBs, we'd see much more success. In the last 20 years, 50 QBs have been taken in the first round. Close to half can be considered busts, meaning the never lived up to their potential, never had a career winning record, never took their teams to the playoffs or were out the the league completely in a few years. These are guys that had all the measurables for the most part. Size, arm strength, brains (most at least), and more than one GM valued them as franchise material. What happened? The art (intangibles) portion of evaluation was misjudged, that's what happened. So to say that because Cousins didn't go until the 4th round means that GMs all valued him there is erroneous. GMs miss as much as they hit. There are plenty of GMs out there today that wished they had Cousins and, if they could do it all over again, would take him above the QB they took in the 1st round.

 

[j_y19]

OK already. I made my point. Why do you camp on this board?

A troll can't very well camp on his home board, can he?

 

[SoCalWizFan]

A troll can't very well camp on his home board, can he?

I guess not. I just don't understand why a Pats fan is so involved in Redskins related discussions. Does he perhaps live in the DC area? I could barely see myself posting more than a few times yearly on a rivals (e.g. Cowboys) board let alone constantly posting on say the Pats or Broncos board. Strange.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

If it were just a science on evaluating QBs, we'd see much more success. In the last 20 years, 50 QBs have been taken in the first round. Close to half can be considered busts, meaning the never lived up to their potential, never had a career winning record, never took their teams to the playoffs or were out the the league completely in a few years. These are guys that had all the measurables for the most part. Size, arm strength, brains (most at least), and more than one GM valued them as franchise material. What happened? The art (intangibles) portion of evaluation was misjudged, that's what happened. So to say that because Cousins didn't go until the 4th round means that GMs all valued him there is erroneous. GMs miss as much as they hit. There are plenty of GMs out there today that wished they had Cousins and, if they could do it all over again, would take him above the QB they took in the 1st round.

Bingo! And several of these GMs will be out of job soon enough because of decisions such as these.

 

[JDM]

OK already. I made my point. Why do you camp on this board?

I post on pretty much every active NFL board.

To the rest, I don't see what's wrong with clarifying his point to you...

 

[SoCalWizFan]

I post on pretty much every active NFL board.

To the rest, I don't see what's wrong with clarifying his point to you...

Ok - didn't want to do this again but here goes. Very simply - I believe that Cousins can command as high as a 2nd rounder now & perhaps higher in the future. The fact that he was drafted in the 4th round of the 2012 draft is pretty much irrelevant. Also - GMs make mistakes & people in the NFL & elsewhere change their minds regarding how they feel about certain players. Good enough or do you want to stir the pot a little more?

 

[JDM]

I wasn't trying to stir anything. You said you didn't know what a straw man was, so I told you.

I know your stance, and it is fairly accurate. I was simply explaining the term.