Comedy Platinum out of Toronto - "Canada's Team" quest for the Cup

[Puck082]

Given the talent level of the Leafs' forwards, I think it's more trouble adjusting to playing hockey for a living.

Are you already on the Auston Matthews train prior to the first puck even being dropped?

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Are you already on the Auston Matthews train prior to the first puck even being dropped?

This may well be the worst Leafs team ever, and given the events of the past decade that is saying a lot.

 

[Puck082]

This may well be the worst Leafs team ever, and given the events of the past decade that is saying a lot.

But but...you have that shiny new coach.....

Feel for you DL. At least you have the Blue Jays for the next week or so.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

But but...you have that shiny new coach.....

Feel for you DL. At least you have the Blue Jays for the next week or so.

The funny thing is the past couple days the newspaper headlines about the Leafs have been "Leafs happy to play in Blue Jays' shadow in October".

They had better hope they win the World Series.

 

[Puck082]

The funny thing is the past couple days the newspaper headlines about the Leafs have been "Leafs happy to play in Blue Jays' shadow in October".

They had better hope they win the World Series.

Love to see a Mets/Jays series.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Which reminds me, if The Saviour decides to keep Nylander and Brown up with the big team I might kidnap them and hold them at a ransom of "send them back to the Marlies". This team might just be 2014-15 Sabres bad.

A lot of things would have to go very very wrong for them to turn out that bad.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

A lot of things would have to go very very wrong for them to turn out that bad.

It doesn't appear that they are capable of generating any offence whatsoever, and they have 1.5 capable defencemen. Unless Bernier pulls a Dubnyk I think it's a very real possibility.

Keep in mind that virtually the entire team that took 23 points out of a possible 88 from January 1st on is still here, minus their best scorer. Buffalo had the same amount of points during that span.

 

[DragonfromTO]

It doesn't appear that they are capable of generating any offence whatsoever, and they have 1.5 capable defencemen. Unless Bernier pulls a Dubnyk I think it's a very real possibility.

Keep in mind that virtually the entire team that took 23 points out of a possible 88 from January 1st on is still here, minus their best scorer. Buffalo had the same amount of points during that span.

There are a lot of faces in the current lineup that weren't part of the team that the Leafs iced in the second half. Guys like Grabner and Boyes aren't Richard and Beliveau, but they're a significant improvement on Zach Sill and Sam Carrick.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

There are a lot of faces in the current lineup that weren't part of the team that the Leafs iced in the second half. Guys like Grabner and Boyes aren't Richard and Beliveau, but they're a significant improvement on Zach Sill and Sam Carrick.

Yes, but will they make up for Kessel's goalscoring? And then help cover for all the other defensive liabilities on the team?

 

[DragonfromTO]

Yes, but will they make up for Kessel's goalscoring? And then help cover for all the other defensive liabilities on the team?

Kessel didn't really score many goals during the second half of the season that you referenced anyway though, so they don't really have to make up much to be better than that.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Kessel didn't really score many goals during the second half of the season that you referenced anyway though, so they don't really have to make up much to be better than that.

Okay, but who did they bring in that scores a lot of goals? The highest new scorer is Matthias with 18 and that was a career high. Next was Brad Boyes with 14 and given his age and the fact he'll be replacing Barkov and Huberdeau with Bozak and Parenteau hoping he matches that total may be unrealistic.

I guess I'm just not as optimistic.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Okay, but who did they bring in that scores a lot of goals? The highest new scorer is Matthias with 18 and that was a career high. Next was Brad Boyes with 14 and given his age and the fact he'll be replacing Barkov and Huberdeau with Bozak and Parenteau hoping he matches that total may be unrealistic.

I guess I'm just not as optimistic.

Look at the guys that are being replaced though. By my rough count they gave something like 200+ games last year to forwards that would be lucky to score 3 goals apiece over a full season. If they get even 8 or 9 apiece from the 4th liners instead that's another 15-20 goals.

There aren't really any useless players in this year's lineup. Last year's was full of them. Those kinds of small incremental improvements down the lineup aren't nothing, and it doesn't matter which line scores.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Look at the guys that are being replaced though. By my rough count they gave something like 200+ games last year to forwards that would be lucky to score 3 goals apiece over a full season. If they get even 8 or 9 apiece from the 4th liners instead that's another 15-20 goals.

There aren't really any useless players in this year's lineup. Last year's was full of them. Those kinds of small incremental improvements down the lineup aren't nothing, and it doesn't matter which line scores.

Who are these useless guys you're referring to that are gone? Only ones I can think of are Clarkson, David Booth, Zach Sill (who was only there for like 20 games) and Brendan Kozun. After that it's just AHL call-ups and Mike Santorelli.

So if the offence they lost that was unproductive was Santorelli Booth and Clarkson, and they had 10, 7 and 11 goals respectively in about 2/3's of a season. Assuming that the Leafs even get the same numbers from their best new pickups and Grabner can grab 15, that's only an addition of 20 goals. That basically just starts to make up for bad Kessel.

Like I said, call me pessimistic. We'll see how it plays out, but I fully anticipate this team being a bottom 3 club.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Who are these useless guys you're referring to that are gone? Only ones I can think of are Clarkson, David Booth, Zach Sill (who was only there for like 20 games) and Brendan Kozun. After that it's just AHL call-ups and Mike Santorelli.

So if the offence they lost that was unproductive was Santorelli Booth and Clarkson, and they had 10, 7 and 11 goals respectively in about 2/3's of a season. Assuming that the Leafs even get the same numbers from their best new pickups and Grabner can grab 15, that's only an addition of 20 goals. That basically just starts to make up for bad Kessel.

Like I said, call me pessimistic. We'll see how it plays out, but I fully anticipate this team being a bottom 3 club.

Trevor Smith. 54 games, 2 goals.
Zach Sill. 21 games, 0 goals.
Brandon Kozun. 20 games, 2 goals.
Joakim Lindstrom. 19 games, 1 goal.
Sam Carrick. 16 games, 1 goal.
Matt Frattin. 9 games, 0 goals.
Carter Ashton. 7 games, 0 goals.
Olli Jokinen. 6 games, 0 goals.
Troy Bodie. 5 games, 0 goals.
Greg McKegg. 3 games, 0 goals.
And last but certainly not least, Colton Orr's one game.

It adds up. That's two full roster spots worth of player games that generated 6 total goals.

You're also not accounting for any difference from coaching and systems. And if there's no upgrade there from last season we're sure wasting a lot of money on coaches.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Trevor Smith. 54 games, 2 goals.
Zach Sill. 21 games, 0 goals.
Brandon Kozun. 20 games, 2 goals.
Joakim Lindstrom. 19 games, 1 goal.
Sam Carrick. 16 games, 1 goal.
Matt Frattin. 9 games, 0 goals.
Carter Ashton. 7 games, 0 goals.
Olli Jokinen. 6 games, 0 goals.
Troy Bodie. 5 games, 0 goals.
Greg McKegg. 3 games, 0 goals.
And last but certainly not least, Colton Orr's one game.

It adds up. That's two full roster spots worth of player games that generated 6 total goals.

You're also not accounting for any difference from coaching and systems. And if there's no upgrade there from last season we're sure wasting a lot of money on coaches.

If you plug those two roster spots with Nick Spaling and PA Parenteau you're adding maybe 15 goals combined, realistically. Are those 15 goals really making the Leafs that much better?

And how about the production that is going to suffer because of Kessel's loss? Is JVR pushing 30 goals this year? Is Bozak even a 30 pt scorer without Phil? Sure, Kadri has the opportunity to jump up and finally prove why he deserved all along to be on that top line but even best case scenario he isn't the offensive catalyst that Kessel is.

I don't think all the coaching on earth is going to save this bunch. It'll help to get more out of Rielly, Gardiner, maybe guys like Holland and Kadri. I don't know any coach that can teach a team to score 20-30 more goals than they're capable of and they need that and then some to get out of the basement. Leafs averaged 1.86 GS/GP after Jan. 1. Over a full season that would be the lowest in the NHL, just beneath the Sabres (who will be much better than that), .15 back of Arizona and .30 back of the Devils. I'm sorry if I don't think a bunch of experiments will turn into an extra .3 goals per game or more and the goals against will rebound much from a 5th-worst 3.13 which was only better than Edmonton, Buffalo, Arizona and Dallas, only one of which will probably be in the bottom of the league in that stat this season. I'm just not understanding where you think the Leafs will out-perform any of these teams and stay out of the basement. You can still see improvement in certain areas while being god-awful elsewhere - RNH on Edmonton was a pretty good example of that last year.

 

[DragonfromTO]

If you plug those two roster spots with Nick Spaling and PA Parenteau you're adding maybe 15 goals combined, realistically. Are those 15 goals really making the Leafs that much better?

And how about the production that is going to suffer because of Kessel's loss? Is JVR pushing 30 goals this year? Is Bozak even a 30 pt scorer without Phil? Sure, Kadri has the opportunity to jump up and finally prove why he deserved all along to be on that top line but even best case scenario he isn't the offensive catalyst that Kessel is.

I don't think all the coaching on earth is going to save this bunch. It'll help to get more out of Rielly, Gardiner, maybe guys like Holland and Kadri. I don't know any coach that can teach a team to score 20-30 more goals than they're capable of and they need that and then some to get out of the basement. Leafs averaged 1.86 GS/GP after Jan. 1. Over a full season that would be the lowest in the NHL, just beneath the Sabres (who will be much better than that), .15 back of Arizona and .30 back of the Devils. I'm sorry if I don't think a bunch of experiments will turn into an extra .3 goals per game or more and the goals against will rebound much from a 5th-worst 3.13 which was only better than Edmonton, Buffalo, Arizona and Dallas, only one of which will probably be in the bottom of the league in that stat this season. I'm just not understanding where you think the Leafs will out-perform any of these teams and stay out of the basement. You can still see improvement in certain areas while being god-awful elsewhere - RNH on Edmonton was a pretty good example of that last year.

Part of the issue here is that you're jumping back and forth between the standards. If the standard for "last place overall" is Jan-Apr '15 then the standard for matching/improvement for JVR isn't 27 goals, it's 10 goals in 44 games. The standard for Bozak isn't 49 points, it's 19 points in 44 games. You don't need to improve on 30+ goal Phil to be better than last overall, you just need to replace 7 goal in 44 game Phil.

You also need to account for increased opportunity (the Brian Bradley Effect) when forecasting some of these guys I think. Guys are going to play more than they have been, get more PP time than they have been and in some cases get better zone starts than they have been. That will increase raw numbers (hell, Grabner scored more G/60 last year than Crosby! I think that will probably come down some with more ice time, but you get the idea).

 

[BGDave]

Interesting back and forth here.

Based on the Saturday preseason game only (yes, I know it was one preseason game) (where they had trouble with the GR Griffins), I tend to think BBB is closer in his assessment. I am thinking 74-75 Caps bad. Puck possession is fine, but if you cant score, who cares.

But its all OK. For the first time in several years, I am looking forward to watching the League and all the teams, rather than just letting the Leafs drive me crazy.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Part of the issue here is that you're jumping back and forth between the standards. If the standard for "last place overall" is Jan-Apr '15 then the standard for matching/improvement for JVR isn't 27 goals, it's 10 goals in 44 games. The standard for Bozak isn't 49 points, it's 19 points in 44 games. You don't need to improve on 30+ goal Phil to be better than last overall, you just need to replace 7 goal in 44 game Phil.

You also need to account for increased opportunity (the Brian Bradley Effect) when forecasting some of these guys I think. Guys are going to play more than they have been, get more PP time than they have been and in some cases get better zone starts than they have been. That will increase raw numbers (hell, Grabner scored more G/60 last year than Crosby! I think that will probably come down some with more ice time, but you get the idea).

I just don't think the increased opportunity is going to good players, and in that case I don't know where the extra goals are coming from. Like I said Kadri could bump up his play and that still won't help JVR get to his first half heights, while his linemate (Boyes at this point) shouldn't be on a first line anywhere. You then have a third liner bumped up to the second unit (Matthias) centred by Bozak, described aptly last week as "a canvas bag filled with sawdust and broken glass that someone had written “no. 1 center” on with spray paint", and with Lupul tacked on for 20 games before he breaks his eyeball by looking at the sun. If leaning on the bottom six is what's giving you hope, I don't know what Parenteau's going to provide that he couldn't while playing alongside Patches and PK, while we already know what Winnik can and can't do and Spaling is filler.

Like I said, I admire your optimism but I just don't share it.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Interesting back and forth here.

Based on the Saturday preseason game only (yes, I know it was one preseason game) (where they had trouble with the GR Griffins), I tend to think BBB is closer in his assessment. I am thinking 74-75 Caps bad. Puck possession is fine, but if you cant score, who cares.

But its all OK. For the first time in several years, I am looking forward to watching the League and all the teams, rather than just letting the Leafs drive me crazy.

I don't think they'll be that bad. I'm predicting bottom 3. Don't trust either goalie, defence is still full of holes, Phaneuf is still there, and I think they'll be lucky to have even one 20 goal scorer. I'm thinking it's a tossup for bottom 3 standings with Arizona and Carolina.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I just don't think the increased opportunity is going to good players, and in that case I don't know where the extra goals are coming from. Like I said Kadri could bump up his play and that still won't help JVR get to his first half heights, while his linemate (Boyes at this point) shouldn't be on a first line anywhere. You then have a third liner bumped up to the second unit (Matthias) centred by Bozak, described aptly last week as "a canvas bag filled with sawdust and broken glass that someone had written “no. 1 center” on with spray paint", and with Lupul tacked on for 20 games before he breaks his eyeball by looking at the sun. If leaning on the bottom six is what's giving you hope, I don't know what Parenteau's going to provide that he couldn't while playing alongside Patches and PK, while we already know what Winnik can and can't do and Spaling is filler.

Like I said, I admire your optimism but I just don't share it.

If thinking that this team will have better results than 2014-15 Buffalo is the optimistic viewpoint, what does the pessimistic viewpoint look like? Babcock gets arrested mid-season for child abuse and Bernier contracts HIV?