Clyde Edwards-Helaire

[tlance]

I have no issues with seeing his value as a receiving back. Look at Kamara.
But unlike Kamara, I see CEH more of a Tarik Cohen type. And maybe that is low-balling CEH. But if he ends up somewhere in between Kamara & Cohen (closer to Kamara), it does not correspond to round 1 value to me.

Closer to Kamara is definitely a round 1 value. Kamara is a top 5 pick even after a down year.

 

[tlance]

I just don’t see much legit competition for touches in KC. The alternatives are all low end plodders.

Maybe top 8 is too rich, but CEH should be a top 12 pick, IMO.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I just don’t see much legit competition for touches in KC. The alternatives are all low end plodders.

Maybe top 8 is too rich, but CEH should be a top 12 pick, IMO.

Top 12 would not be out of the question, but I wouldn't be the one drafting him there.
I don't think plodders is not the correct term for those behind him. They aren't plodders. The correct term would be unproven thus far and that hasn't deterred Reid from using the likes of Damien Williams and back ups last season or others unproven like Spenser Ware or Charcandrick West in prior years.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Fournette prefers to be called a "power back", not a plodder!

 

[TREFF]

Closer to Kamara is definitely a round 1 value. Kamara is a top 5 pick even after a down year.

In the vast vacuum of space in a universe that exists between Cohen and Kamara, closer to Kamara leaves a very wide range of outcomes.. That are still favorable to CEH, but not at all close to a first round pick. Kamara himself without 8+ TD's isnt worth the pick

 

[Shanemansj13]

Oh, I get it.

It is an extremely risky pick. The floor for CEH is basement level.

But the ceiling is higher than any player not named McCaffery or Barley.

That is why he is being drafted where he is.

Probably a little too high, but I don’t think it is crazy either.

But also I don’t fear rookies. I once took Zeke Elliot at #1 overall.

I don't agree with that at all. I would take Zeke and a many other RB's over CEH. And you have to understand, CEH isn't the type of running back Zeke is...Zeke is an absolute freak of nature like Barkley. CEH is still a big question mark...a 1st round pick, at least top 5 shouldn't be a risky pick. There are other proven guys that have already shown to be all-around backs that aren't a risky. I would put CEH in the RB12-15 range.

 

[tlance]

I don't agree with that at all. I would take Zeke and a many other RB's over CEH. And you have to understand, CEH isn't the type of running back Zeke is...Zeke is an absolute freak of nature like Barkley. CEH is still a big question mark...a 1st round pick, at least top 5 shouldn't be a risky pick. There are other proven guys that have already shown to be all-around backs that aren't a risky. I would put CEH in the RB12-15 range.

We are talking about ceiling only.

And yes, CEH’s ceiling is unbelievably high.

Because he plays for the Chiefs and could be their feature back.

Zeke is excellent and has an extremely high floor. He is a better pick than CEH hands down.

But that doesn’t mean he has a higher ceiling.

 

[averagejoe]

CEH’s ceiling is unbelievably high

I admit CEH landed in a great spot.
I don't agree that his ceiling is "unbelievably high."
It may be high.
With all of the mouths to feed in that offense, they are not forced to rely on 1 or 2 players to carry the team. I think this works against him.

Even in Hunt's best season (in 2017 where he racked up 1782 all purpose yards in KC), he had a 5 week stretch where he did not get over 77 all-purpose yards with zero TD. In fact, after week 3 Hunt did not score a TD until week 13.

I'm sure every player may have a game-log like this. But to my point, this is a greater possibility for a team with multiple weapons.

 

[TREFF]

We are talking about ceiling only.

And yes, CEH’s ceiling is unbelievably high.

Because he plays for the Chiefs and could be their feature back.

Zeke is excellent and has an extremely high floor. He is a better pick than CEH hands down.

But that doesn’t mean he has a higher ceiling.

But we aren't talking about what his ceiling is. I don't think anyone would argue that his ceiling as the likely lead back in KC isnt astronomically high. We are debating wether or not hes worthy of a 1st round pick, and that discussion has to include discussion about his floor too. And let's be honest, his floor at this very moment, as a rookie whose never played a down, has no.preseason to put forth any evidence either, quite frankly, that floor is that hes a total bust whose game doesn't translate to the NFL. Thats a very low floor.

 

[Shanemansj13]

We are talking about ceiling only.

And yes, CEH’s ceiling is unbelievably high.

Because he plays for the Chiefs and could be their feature back.

Zeke is excellent and has an extremely high floor. He is a better pick than CEH hands down.

But that doesn’t mean he has a higher ceiling.

Too many mouths to feed, that alone doesn't make his ceiling "unbelievably high"

So you think CEH will have better rushing numbers than Zeke is what you are saying OR you think CEH's touchdown numbers will be ridiculous? It's one or the other.

Zeke's averaged over 60 receptions per year the last two years and close to 500 yards receiving. Factor in the 1,400 rushing yards per year. So we've seen Zeke's ceiling...about 1,600 yards 15 TD's 400 receving yards 2 TD's

CEH won't close close to that, sorry and that isn't his ceiling. BUT you still have to factor in the floor, which you are not doing.

This looks about right for CEH projection...maybe a little more rushing yards and TD's....

120 rushing attempts, 522 rushing yards, 4.4 rushing touchdowns
42.3 catches, 506 receiving yards, 3.5 receiving touchdowns

 

[TREFF]

ok..I guess some will argue his ceiling isnt astronomical...lol
Personally I feel that IF he is all that and a bag of chips, his ceiling is right there with #1 RB territory.

But, as a rookie, thats a pretty big IF

 

[SmokingMonkey]

- Kareem Hunt is a better overall RB than CEH
- when Hunt was crushing it in KC, they had fewer weapons than they do now

that is enough for me to be completely fine with not having any CEH shares at his current ADP

when Zeke and Barkley are the only rookie RBs that have 1st round ADPs in their rookie seasons that provided 1st round value, there would have been at least ONE team that took CEH before the chiefs did at 1.32 if he was capable of producing at those levels, imo

 

[tlance]

Too many mouths to feed, that alone doesn't make his ceiling "unbelievably high"

So you think CEH will have better rushing numbers than Zeke is what you are saying OR you think CEH's touchdown numbers will be ridiculous? It's one or the other.

Zeke's averaged over 60 receptions per year the last two years and close to 500 yards receiving. Factor in the 1,400 rushing yards per year. So we've seen Zeke's ceiling...about 1,600 yards 15 TD's 400 receving yards 2 TD's

CEH won't close close to that, sorry and that isn't his ceiling. BUT you still have to factor in the floor, which you are not doing.

This looks about right for CEH projection...maybe a little more rushing yards and TD's....

120 rushing attempts, 522 rushing yards, 4.4 rushing touchdowns
42.3 catches, 506 receiving yards, 3.5 receiving touchdowns

I am not saying his numbers will be better than Zeke’s.

What I am saying is that if everything goes perfect for him, he could have a boatload of TDs in a great offense.

And if he hits his ceiling and turns into an 80% + workload guy, 80% of the Chiefs workload is worth more than almost anybody. Including Zeke.

There are ifs on the other side too, which I clearly laid out in the first line of my post in CEH.

His floor is basement level.

 

[tlance]

But we aren't talking about what his ceiling is. I don't think anyone would argue that his ceiling as the likely lead back in KC isnt astronomically high. We are debating wether or not hes worthy of a 1st round pick, and that discussion has to include discussion about his floor too. And let's be honest, his floor at this very moment, as a rookie whose never played a down, has no.preseason to put forth any evidence either, quite frankly, that floor is that hes a total bust whose game doesn't translate to the NFL. Thats a very low floor.

And I include that floor in my analysis and in my posts here about CEH.

@Shanemansj13 was focused on what I said regarding his ceiling, so that is where the conversation went.

If CEH had a high floor he would be a top 5 pick.

He doesn’t.

But I still think he is worth a shot late in round 1 because of the massive ceiling.

 

[tlance]

- Kareem Hunt is a better overall RB than CEH
- when Hunt was crushing it in KC, they had fewer weapons than they do now

that is enough for me to be completely fine with not having any CEH shares at his current ADP

when Zeke and Barkley are the only rookie RBs that have 1st round ADPs in their rookie seasons that provided 1st round value, there would have been at least ONE team that took CEH before the chiefs did at 1.32 if he was capable of producing at those levels, imo

Except,

The reason for the optimism is his anticipated role in a truly elite offense.

When was the last time a talented rookie RB stepped into such massive opportunity in such a great offense?

I doubt it has ever happened before.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Except,

The reason for the optimism is his anticipated role in a truly elite offense.

When was the last time a talented rookie RB stepped into such massive opportunity in such a great offense?

I doubt it has ever happened before.

Sony Michel. 31st pick to NE after they just lost the SB. Better OL than KC...they still had Gronk, Edelman, Gordon...I think it is somewhat comparable.

 

[tlance]

I admit CEH landed in a great spot.
I don't agree that his ceiling is "unbelievably high."
It may be high.
With all of the mouths to feed in that offense, they are not forced to rely on 1 or 2 players to carry the team. I think this works against him.

Even in Hunt's best season (in 2017 where he racked up 1782 all purpose yards in KC), he had a 5 week stretch where he did not get over 77 all-purpose yards with zero TD. In fact, after week 3 Hunt did not score a TD until week 13.

I'm sure every player may have a game-log like this. But to my point, this is a greater possibility for a team with multiple weapons.

The “mouths to feed” aren’t competing in any real way for touches with CEH though.

CEH will run those flat check down routes and carries out of the backfield as long as he proves to be the best RB in KC.

I think that is likely.

Last year, in a relative down season for the entire offense, Chiefs RBs combined for over 1900 yards and 17 TDs.

 

[tlance]

Sony Michel. 31st pick to NE after they just lost the SB. Better OL than KC...they still had Gronk, Edelman, Gordon...I think it is somewhat comparable.

LOL.

I dont.

 

[Shanemansj13]

LOL.

I dont.

Your right. Michel was a much better RB in college AND he had a better combine.

Three reasons CEH is being overhyped:

1. LSU and Burrow won the CFP and CEH was getting a ton of love. If they don't win it he is a 2-3 round pick. Simple as that.
2. Damien Williams opts out.
3. He just got drafted to KC and dynamic offense.

I can see how all these things can be very tempting to make his ceiling extraordinary high but it just isn't as high as you believe. Your ceiling says he will replicate his college numbers minus the TD's. I would say his ceiling is right around Michel but he has much more of an opportunity in the passing game.
So 1,400 scrimmage yards and 8 total TD's------that's my ceiling for him.
According to 2019, that would be RB11 or RB12 as a ceiling(that's right about where I have him ranked too)
I guess your ceiling since it's "unbelievably high" is 1,800 scrimmage yards and 14-15 TD's LOL. I don't think that is realistic.

In comparison, he would have a better rookie season than Marshall Faulk.
Barkley had 2K
Zeke had 2K

Those guys were workhorses in college and freak athletes. CEH barely cleared 200 in 15 games, that's only one season. More risk than reward picking top 5, let alone top 8-9.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Chiefs RBs in Hunt's rookie season: 1900yds 12TDs

we've literally seen this before, only Hunt was built for 250+ attempts (272) and 50+ catches (53)

CEH is built for 175-200 MAX, and prob 50-60rec

not gonna happen.........