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iknowftbll
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A Broncos fan linked this in the comments on Arrowhead Addict* earlier today. It's an interesting read and really spells out from a business perspective the rationale I had when I predicted an 8-8 finish for the Chiefs. In summery it amounts to this: The Chiefs are not significantly better or worse in 2016, but the Broncos are at least as good as they were last year, perhaps better. The Raiders are young and the implication there is they have a higher potential upside. And while the Chargers are the consensus 4th place finisher, they will be good enough to avoid a sweep at the hands of their AFC West rivals in 2016.
If you think about it, the Chiefs are sort of in a "worst of both worlds" scenario. I'll explain.
The Broncos are defending champions but it is clear the press has left this team for dead already. And that disrespect does not sit well with these players. It adds a chip on their shoulder. Some fans are dismissive of the edge this gives, but I'll trust the players (over fans who have never played the game) when they say that disrespect enhances the motivation.
The Raiders are still young and will play with abandonment in 2016. The upside and potential is there, but the expectations truly are not, despite them being a trendy pick. The truth is the Raiders are a perennial sub .500 team until they actually are not.
The Chargers went 4-12 and coming off a disaster of a season like that it's hard to expect much out of them, which is probably right where they wish to be. And as I said, they are probably good enough to split with each of their AFC West rivals.
That brings us back to the Chiefs and their being in the worst of both worlds. They were good enough to win a playoff game but not good enough to take it all the way. They have a roster that is good enough to get them close, but not good enough to finish. This means both disappointment at the end of the year AND being out of prime draft position. Consider their 11-5 finish from last year as a baseline, including their 5-1 record vs the AFC West. Now factor in a split with the Raiders and Chiefs and you've dropped an 11-5 team to 9-7. Then factor roadies vs the Colts (where the Chiefs seem to fall flat on their faces) as well as the Steelers (assuming health, playing in Pittsburgh is a lot different than at home) and it is easy to see how this team can go from 11-5 to 8-8 without there being a dramatic regression in the quality of the roster.
Progress in the NFL from year is not linear. I've assumed the Chiefs would be a tough team to beat in 2016 but finish 8-8, with a foreseeable outlook in 2017 at 9-7 or 10-6. But Dorsey has painted the team into a corner with the core of this roster. As much as people forewarned the drop off of the Broncos, I think it's actually more likely we see a major decline in the Chiefs in the next couple of seasons.
Chiefs may have overcommitted to nucleus - Today's Pigskin
* Chiefs fans who frequent AA have grown increasingly bitchy lately. They now seem to define a troll as any fan of a rival team who attempts to chat football there. We have some quality Chiefs fans here on the hoop, so I'll avoid the broad brush sentiments. Suffice to say as far as Chiefs fans go, sites like AA and AP are not a good look for them.
If you think about it, the Chiefs are sort of in a "worst of both worlds" scenario. I'll explain.
The Broncos are defending champions but it is clear the press has left this team for dead already. And that disrespect does not sit well with these players. It adds a chip on their shoulder. Some fans are dismissive of the edge this gives, but I'll trust the players (over fans who have never played the game) when they say that disrespect enhances the motivation.
The Raiders are still young and will play with abandonment in 2016. The upside and potential is there, but the expectations truly are not, despite them being a trendy pick. The truth is the Raiders are a perennial sub .500 team until they actually are not.
The Chargers went 4-12 and coming off a disaster of a season like that it's hard to expect much out of them, which is probably right where they wish to be. And as I said, they are probably good enough to split with each of their AFC West rivals.
That brings us back to the Chiefs and their being in the worst of both worlds. They were good enough to win a playoff game but not good enough to take it all the way. They have a roster that is good enough to get them close, but not good enough to finish. This means both disappointment at the end of the year AND being out of prime draft position. Consider their 11-5 finish from last year as a baseline, including their 5-1 record vs the AFC West. Now factor in a split with the Raiders and Chiefs and you've dropped an 11-5 team to 9-7. Then factor roadies vs the Colts (where the Chiefs seem to fall flat on their faces) as well as the Steelers (assuming health, playing in Pittsburgh is a lot different than at home) and it is easy to see how this team can go from 11-5 to 8-8 without there being a dramatic regression in the quality of the roster.
Progress in the NFL from year is not linear. I've assumed the Chiefs would be a tough team to beat in 2016 but finish 8-8, with a foreseeable outlook in 2017 at 9-7 or 10-6. But Dorsey has painted the team into a corner with the core of this roster. As much as people forewarned the drop off of the Broncos, I think it's actually more likely we see a major decline in the Chiefs in the next couple of seasons.
Chiefs may have overcommitted to nucleus - Today's Pigskin
* Chiefs fans who frequent AA have grown increasingly bitchy lately. They now seem to define a troll as any fan of a rival team who attempts to chat football there. We have some quality Chiefs fans here on the hoop, so I'll avoid the broad brush sentiments. Suffice to say as far as Chiefs fans go, sites like AA and AP are not a good look for them.
