Indrid Cold
Member In Black
It is definitely exceptional to be a quality ML hitter at an early age, but most of the guys who have monster seasons like Judge did last year are very exceptional and do hit well when they are young. It did take Thome a while to get full time play, mostly because the Tribe tried to shoehorn him in at third when he wasn't suited for the position, but he still had an OPS+ of 131 when he was 22.Think you have the outliers backwards
Griffey and Trout types are the exception
Jim Thome hit 612 HR's and didnt have his first big HR season until he was 25
Thats just the first guy i looked at, but I think there are less guys hitting like stars at 19 than at 24 or 25
I will concede somewhat on the college issue, but Schmidt and Bonds both graduated from college and established themselves as ML hitters younger than Judge did. The thing that gets me about Judge is going from being a sub-.500 slugger in the minors to the rarefied level of .627 in his first full year in the majors...I mean, Schmidt slugged .550 at AAA when he was 22, struggled in the majors when he was 23, and then slugged .546 in the major when he was 24. Judge just took a giant leap in the majors and that's a hard thing to do.
Again, doesn't prove anything...I would be willing to put money on Judge not being a 300HR guy in the majors, though. Most guys who come up late and have big years in their mid 20s don't end up being outstanding hitters...thinking of guys like Ron Kittle and Walt Dropo. Even Cecil Fielder only hit 319, and he stuck around in the majors for quite a while after hitting nearly 100 HRs in his first two seasons back from Japan.