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Fountain City Blues
Love Everybody
I am sometimes labeled as a sunshine pumper, and an eternal optimist- so be skeptical if you want. What I'll explain though is how this Chiefs squad in 2015 looks poised to cause serious damage. Here are the reasons I think the Chiefs can make a jump to be a legit contender. It's year 3 of the "DoReido" regime, and quite honestly my expectations was for this year to be the first year they start winning after 2012, but this team apparently is ahead of schedule. And the FO and coaching staff, has mostly gotten my backing.
In the first two years, under Reid, the Chiefs have averaged 10 wins. Teams in the 3rd year of HC/QB continuity average 9.74 wins. As this pertains to Reid, this was about the time with Donovan McNabb they made a run of NFC Title games, including a SB appearance in which they lost to the dynastic Patriots. So, the next logical step is to see what the odds are of making into the playoffs in year 3 of said continuity. And here is the chart for that.
A very solid looking graph if you are a Chiefs fan. The Broncos will be as stiff as any team in the NFL to take a division crown from, but a WC is very attainable- this team is after all averaging 10 wins going into its 3rd season of continuity. Here's how those playoff teams fared. And yes, there have been no SB losers thus far since 2000 from this specific sample.
Interestingly, 61.5% of teams with this kind of continuity did in fact win at least one playoff game. Many fans in the NFL take that for granted, but being starved of a playoff win for 20+ years, I would like to think we understand how difficult it can be to get those wins. From Lin Elliot, WD-40, to the implosion of 2013, it's always been something. Now, that's a nice couple of graphs and all, but that alone isn't elevating this team to real contender. So, I'll attempt to get into the nitty gritty as well.
CB2 Depth
Sean Smith was mostly lockdown on his side of the field, but CB2 was occasionally an issue. The list of CB2 starters was lengthy: Marcus Cooper, Ron Parker, Jamell Flemming, and Phillip Gaines. Steven Nelson and Marcus Peters were drafted, and given Peters was generally seen as the #1 CB in the draft prior to his outbursts, there's reason to be excited about his potential. Between Gaines, Peters, and Nelson, someone is taking hold of the CB2 job, and one of Gaines or Nelson likely will go to nickel. Given how much this team plays nickel, we really should see all of these guys quite a bit, and that's a lot more promising than seeing Marcus Cooper or Jamell Flemming out there. Depth is much deeper. This of course, was a team that was among the lead leaders in YPA against, so any upgrade at CB2 is a big, big deal.
Run defense was middle of the pack by DVOA, but the ILB's were dreadful- just about every Chiefs fan will tell you how frustrating the run D from the ILB's was. While there's a lot of truth to the idea that nickel played a role in the woeful YPC allowed, but when you see stuff like this, you can see why even a more favorable review from DVOA is decidedly mediocre:
P.S. This and the Titans game killed a season
- Year 3 of continuity with Reid and the rest of the coaching staff, and what that means historically
- Improved CB2 depth
- Return of DJ and DeVito; impact on run defense
- Takeaway regression; and why it isn't a very repeatable skill
- Special Teams Execution
- Improved WR's
- Year 2 of Kelce
- TTL, and what it means for the Chiefs.
HC/QB Continuity Since 2000
Many of these charts, among other datapoints, I will present are indeed from Head coach and quarterback continuity - The ever important third year - Arrowhead Pride , by Super_G.
In the first two years, under Reid, the Chiefs have averaged 10 wins. Teams in the 3rd year of HC/QB continuity average 9.74 wins. As this pertains to Reid, this was about the time with Donovan McNabb they made a run of NFC Title games, including a SB appearance in which they lost to the dynastic Patriots. So, the next logical step is to see what the odds are of making into the playoffs in year 3 of said continuity. And here is the chart for that.
A very solid looking graph if you are a Chiefs fan. The Broncos will be as stiff as any team in the NFL to take a division crown from, but a WC is very attainable- this team is after all averaging 10 wins going into its 3rd season of continuity. Here's how those playoff teams fared. And yes, there have been no SB losers thus far since 2000 from this specific sample.
Interestingly, 61.5% of teams with this kind of continuity did in fact win at least one playoff game. Many fans in the NFL take that for granted, but being starved of a playoff win for 20+ years, I would like to think we understand how difficult it can be to get those wins. From Lin Elliot, WD-40, to the implosion of 2013, it's always been something. Now, that's a nice couple of graphs and all, but that alone isn't elevating this team to real contender. So, I'll attempt to get into the nitty gritty as well.
CB2 Depth
The Return of DeVito and Johnson
Run defense was middle of the pack by DVOA, but the ILB's were dreadful- just about every Chiefs fan will tell you how frustrating the run D from the ILB's was. While there's a lot of truth to the idea that nickel played a role in the woeful YPC allowed, but when you see stuff like this, you can see why even a more favorable review from DVOA is decidedly mediocre:
P.S. This and the Titans game killed a season