Caleb Williams will skip Bowl Game and enter the 2024 NFL Draft.

[eaglesnut]

There are basically three knocks on Penix, which could possibly drive down his draft value.

1. He's a bit slight in frame and build.
2. He's been somewhat injury-prone.
3. He's "old" by QB draft standards.

To me, I almost immediately throw out 1 & 3. Yeah, at 6'3, 215 or so, he could stand to add a few pounds, but this seems to be a picky gripe. Same with #3. By the time the coming season gets under foot, he'll be 24. With other positions, this could be a factor, but successful QBs in this league tend to have fairly long careers, at least by NFL standards, so to me this isn't a biggie at all. And as far as #2 goes, I only consider the point that a player is injury prone if it's the same injury that dogs him repeatedly. I'm not up to date on the kid's injury history, but unless it's the same one that has kept him off the field, here too I don't place such heavy stock on it. What I do place heavy stock on is a QB's ability to read the field, go thru his checkdowns when needed, how quickly he gets rid of the ball, and naturally his accuracy. I have to say the games and film highlights I've seen of Penix, he checks all those boxes quite nicely.

The one thing about age is that it's easier to play against younger kids. He had an extra year of development and maturity to work with.

 

[fightinfunbags]

That age means he's likely topped out though as an older, experienced prospect facing kids. Caleb should have more upside remaining.

Agree with you on upside. At the same time, if this all Penix is it might be good enough even if he doesn’t have more of a rise in him. At the same time, with QBs there’s a coaching and experience rise that occurs once they’ve had that exposure over the first few years. Even if the skill set doesn’t reveal promise for a high ceiling of being one of the best in the league, on a rookie deal and a great roster around him, you can get a top 10 QB in the league and compete.

 

[NCChiFan]

I doubt it would be two. Why commit to that 5th year option when you have the #1 pick on the bench? Actually, I doubt they would go this route regardless, unless the market for Fields just isn't good enough right now. Hard to imagine it would be better at the deadline if the other teams know they need to move him or lose him to FA though; maybe that's where the 5th year option comes in.

I can think of two fairly recent hall of fame QB's that sat behind starters for a year or three.

 

[Clayton]

I think that Williams/Penix debate will be very real and not media contrived to be honest. Penix has shown he can win at two different spots and one of them was Indiana!

Maybe I need to look at Penix a little more but my initial thought is that he looks like he is in that Mac Jones tier.

 

[belcherboy]

I can think of two fairly recent hall of fame QB's that sat behind starters for a year or three.

But I would bet neither of them were the #1 pick in the draft (I would bet they weren’t even in the top 10)

You can’t draft a QB #1 and sit him out. If he’s good enough for #1, he has to be your starter going into the season.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

But I would bet neither of them were the #1 pick in the draft (I would bet they weren’t even in the top 10)

You can’t draft a QB #1 and sit him out. If he’s good enough for #1, he has to be your starter going into the season.

IIRC, Carson Palmer was the last #1 overall pick at QB to sit for a year before he became the starter. That was 20 years ago.

 

[ducky]

Maybe I need to look at Penix a little more but my initial thought is that he looks like he is in that Mac Jones tier.

Penix is hard to compare to anyone because of his oddball throwing mechanics.

I would think he would be a middle to late 1st round pick as well (but of course it only takes 1) because any team drafting him is going to want to sit him for most of the 1st year to try and fix his throwing motion.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Maybe I need to look at Penix a little more but my initial thought is that he looks like he is in that Mac Jones tier.

Maybe I’m off but when I think of Mac I think of a guy who was propped up by having an immense talent advantage in every college game clouding the evaluation. His WRs were elite . The run game was elite . The guys protecting him were elite.

 

[Clayton]

Maybe I’m off but when I think of Mac I think of a guy who was propped up by having an immense talent advantage in every college game clouding the evaluation. His WRs were elite . The run game was elite . The guys protecting him were elite.

Mac Jones IIRC only had one elite WR and fed him regularly. Waddle got hurt so it wasnt like Tua or Burrow or Stroud.

Penix is making plays, I'll give him that. Stepping up in the pocket and just letting it loose. I know there is also a WR that has his draft stock a bit lower than his film due to his age (Xavier Legette). It'll be curious to see how much age matters.

 

[eaglesnut]

I can think of two fairly recent hall of fame QB's that sat behind starters for a year or three.

Yeah, but functional QBs that they could watch and learn from.

 

[eaglesnut]

Penix is hard to compare to anyone because of his oddball throwing mechanics.

I would think he would be a middle to late 1st round pick as well (but of course it only takes 1) because any team drafting him is going to want to sit him for most of the 1st year to try and fix his throwing motion.

Rivers sat behind Brees, but they didn't change his motion.

 

[NCChiFan]

But I would bet neither of them were the #1 pick in the draft (I would bet they weren’t even in the top 10)

You can’t draft a QB #1 and sit him out. If he’s good enough for #1, he has to be your starter going into the season.

Last 12 QB drafted #1:

Russell
Stafford
Bradford
Newton
Luck
Winston
Geoff
Mayfield
Murray
Burrow
Lawernce
Young

How many of these guys panned out? Russell? Bradford? Newton (in fairness, injury)? Winston? Geoff? Mayfield? Lawernce (solid but Fields accounts for more TD's than Trevor)? Young? Drafting a QB at #1 is an obvious crap shoot. To the point, how many pro teams missed on Brady a 6th rounder? Or even a solid QB in Purdy a 7th round pick? Again, it is obviously a shot in the dark and an imprecise science. Who knows if Williams or Maye will pan out? But if what you got is bad, you have to take a shot.

Not sure Fields falls into the bad category. Therefore, the Bears have a dilemma. Can you win a Superbowl with a bad QB? Yup, could site you a few examples of bad QB's that won a Superbowl.

 

[belcherboy]

Last 12 QB drafted #1:

Russell
Stafford
Bradford
Newton
Luck
Winston
Geoff
Mayfield
Murray
Burrow
Lawernce
Young

How many of these guys panned out? Russell? Bradford? Newton (in fairness, injury)? Winston? Geoff? Mayfield? Lawernce (solid but Fields accounts for more TD's than Trevor)? Young? Drafting a QB at #1 is an obvious crap shoot. To the point, how many pro teams missed on Brady a 6th rounder? Or even a solid QB in Purdy a 7th round pick? Again, it is obviously a shot in the dark and an imprecise science. Who knows if Williams or Maye will pan out? But if what you got is bad, you have to take a shot.

Not sure Fields falls into the bad category. Therefore, the Bears have a dilemma. Can you win a Superbowl with a bad QB? Yup, could site you a few examples of bad QB's that won a Superbowl.

You still failed to mention any QB’s drafted at #1 that were not the immediate starter in their city.

Why does it rarely if ever happen? GM’s like their jobs. If you have the #1 pick it is likely that you have the worst team in the NFL. So drafting a QB at #1 and benching him is likely to get you fired quickly.

 

[NCChiFan]

You still failed to mention any QB’s drafted at #1 that were not the immediate starter in their city.

Why does it rarely if ever happen? GM’s like their jobs. If you have the #1 pick it is likely that you have the worst team in the NFL. So drafting a QB at #1 and benching him is likely to get you fired quickly.

And sometimes you start them and get fired anyway.... >cough cough< Carolina Panthers.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

You still failed to mention any QB’s drafted at #1 that were not the immediate starter in their city.

Why does it rarely if ever happen? GM’s like their jobs. If you have the #1 pick it is likely that you have the worst team in the NFL. So drafting a QB at #1 and benching him is likely to get you fired quickly.

And we should never underestimate the power of a team's fanbase and the pressure they bring to implore the brass to start their #1 pick. Granted the brass and coaching staff should prioitize a team's needs, but the last thing they want to do is anger the people who pay the bills.

 

[belcherboy]

And sometimes you start them and get fired anyway.... >cough cough< Carolina Panthers.

So you’re saying Carolina would have been better to trade up multiple drafts picks get get the #1 pick and then sit him out the first year?

If the player you drafted #1 isn’t ready to start right away, then you deserve to be fired.

 

[kcden]

Penix is hard to compare to anyone because of his oddball throwing mechanics.

I would think he would be a middle to late 1st round pick as well (but of course it only takes 1) because any team drafting him is going to want to sit him for most of the 1st year to try and fix his throwing motion.

Are they really oddball? Can you name a lefty QB who's mechanics don't look oddball? I can't... we see like 95+% right handed QBs in major cfb/NFL, so all of the lefties look weird.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Are they really oddball? Can you name a lefty QB who's mechanics don't look oddball? I can't... we see like 95+% right handed QBs in major cfb/NFL, so all of the lefties look weird.

For the most part, I agree. But I loved watching Mark Brunell sling it.

 

[msgkings322]

Maybe I need to look at Penix a little more but my initial thought is that he looks like he is in that Mac Jones tier.

Brock Purdy?

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

I like Williams as a prospect. I have watched about 5 of his games on youtube. The arm strength is there. The ability to make accurate off platform throws is there. The big negative that sticks out for me, are these fumbles. It's the "trying too hard" principle. He would fit best going to an established team. I don't think he's going to be like the Lions and Stafford, Jags and Lawrence, or Bills and Allen, where he goes to a team with a history of mismanaging quarterbacks.